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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 21, No. 8, August 15, 2022
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.


ASSESSMENT

  • PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: IMAM: TTP's Deception?- Giriraj Bhattacharjee
  • PAKISTAN: Balochistan: Targeting Oil and Gas - Tushar Ranjan Mohanty

 

PAKISTAN
AFGHANISTAN

 

    Print

 

IMAM: TTP's Deception?
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 8, 2022, four soldiers were killed in a suicide blast targeting a military convoy in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Two days later, on August 10, Ittehad Musallah Islami Mujahideen (IMAM)’s spokesperson Abu Basheer Waziristani claimed responsibility for the attack.

On August 3, 2022, two policemen were killed and another two were injured when a hand grenade exploded at the Karachi Police Headquarters in Karachi, Sindh. Though IMAM has not directly claimed the attack,  social media accounts sympathetic to IMAM have claimed that it was carried out by the outfit.

On July 22, 2022, suspected IMAM militants opened fire on a police patrol van, leaving two persons injured, including a policeman, at Khwar Bazaar in the Akora Khattak area of Nowshera District in KP.

On July 16, 2022, IMAM militants killed District Police Officer (DPO) Gul Rehman near his residence in the Lakki Machan Khel area of Lakki Marwat District in Sindh.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the start of ceasefire between the government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on May 1, 2022, IMAM has claimed four attacks across Pakistan, which resulted in seven fatalities, all Security Force (SF) personnel (data till August 14, 2022).   

It is believed that IMAM is a reincarnation of Ansar-ul-Mujahideen, led by Mufti Shafiq, a leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan – Gandapur group (TTP-Gandapur group), which came into existence in March 2013. The militant formation had two stated organizational goals: to avenge the death of each and every drone strike victim; and to target the Shia community. However, on March 1, 2014, when TTP declared a one-month long ceasefire with the government, the Ansar-ul Mujahideen opposed it and continued its violent activities.

Some of the prominent attacks owned by Ansar-ul-Mujahideen over the years include:

  • September 14, 2014: Suspected Ansar-ul-Mujahideen militants killed three Frontier Corps troopers in the Spinwam area of the then North Waziristan Agency (NWA) in the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
  • June 24, 2014: Two soldiers and a civilian died in a suicide bombing, claimed by the Ansar-ul-Mujahideen, in NWA.
  • March 5, 2014: Ansar-ul-Mujahideen militants killed six Frontier Corps troopers in a remote-controlled explosion near the Warmagal area of Hangu District, KP.
  • December 12, 2013: Ansar-ul Mujahideen militants killed four Pakistani soldiers in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack in NWA. The attack was purportedly to avenge the death of Maulvi Ahmed Jan, a top Haqqani Network leader, who was killed in a US drone strike on November 21, 2013.
  • October 16, 2013: Eight persons, including the then KP law minister, Sardar Israr Ullah Gandapur, were killed in a suicide attack by the Ansar-ul-Mujahideen at his home in Kulachi village, Dera Ismail Khan, District, KP.
  • July 26, 2013: At least 43 persons, mostly Shias, were killed and over 200 injured, in twin suicide attacks claimed by the Ansar-ul-Mujahideen at the bazaar in Parachinar, the main town of the Kurram Agency.
  • June 4, 2013: Two SF personnel were injured in a suicide attack by Ansar-ul-Mujahideen at a security checkpoint in the Damdhel area on the Miranshah-Razmak Road in the Dosaali tehsil of NWA.
  • March 23, 2013: 20 SF personnel were killed in a suicide attack by Ansar-ul-Mujahideen on the Esha check post, around 15 kilometers east of Miranshah, NWA. The check post was jointly manned by the Army, paramilitary soldiers and the Khasadar (a locally recruited tribal force), personnel.

These incidents demonstrated the strength and brutality of the group over these years.  

However, the outfit lost its relevance gradually, as it suffered major losses during Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet), which was launched by the Army on June 15, 2014, targeting TTP, forcing the group to relocate to Afghanistan.

At a time when TTP is engaged in talks with the government, the Ansar-ul-Mujahideen has now found opportunities to reassert itself in Pakistan.

Significantly, another outfit, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group (HBG) has also escalated violence since the talks began. According to the SATP database, since the beginning of the ceasefire (May 1,2022), at least 32 HGB-linked fatalities (six SF personnel and 26 militants) have been recorded in Pakistan (data till August 14, 2022).  33 targeted civilian killings that took place in North Waziristan District between January 2022 and July 2022 were also attributed by the local administration to the Ariana and Ghazi Force. The Ghazi Force was formed after the Lal Masjid Operation in 2007 and it later joined TTP. Most of its members are now reportedly part of HBG.

While many believe that these two groups are reasserting themselves to put pressure on Islamabad  for greater concessions, Farhan Jeffery, a longtime observer of Jihadi groups active in the Afghan-Pakistan region, claims that IMAM has been reactivated by TTP to maintain ‘deniability’ on its role in the ongoing violence. Jeffery claims that HGB, like Ansar-ul-Mujahideen, is TTP’s ‘B team.’

Whether they are working on their own or as TTP’s ‘B team’, violence in the region will put added pressure on Islamabad to make some concessions. A ‘breakthrough’ has already been achieved, and an indefinite ceasefire was announced following these concessions by the Pakistan Government, which was struggling to contain political and economic instability.

The Pakistani state may, understandably, also have started to assert itself to secure some leverage vis-à-vis TTP. The suspicious assassinations of four top TTP ‘commanders’ in Afghanistan could be a case in point. While no group has claimed responsibility for the incidents, the Inter-Services Intelligence’s (ISI’s) role is suspected, as those who were eliminated were reportedly hardcore TTP elements not ready to reconcile with the government. The four TTP leaders killed included:

  • August 8, 2022: TTP 'intelligence chief' and member of 'military commission' Abdul Rashid alias Uqabi Bajauri, was killed in a landmine explosion in Kunar Province, Afghanistan. Uqabi belonged to the Bajaur District of KP.
  • August 7, 2022: Three TTP 'commanders' and a driver were killed in a roadside mine explosion in Barmal District in Paktika Province, Afghanistan. The killed 'commanders' included Omar Khalid Khorasani, Hafiz Daulat Khan and Mullah Hassan, while the driver was reportedly the son-in-law of Omar Khalid Khorasani.

In a statement released in Urdu on August 9, 2022, the TTP eulogized the deceased 'commanders' and warned,

…farzi lakir ke is taraf islam ne dusman ko shikast di, usi tarah farzi lakir ke dusri tarf bhi ghaddar, ghulam aur dollarkhor fauj ko shikast dekar rahenge aur pyare watan ke pyare zamin par Islami nizam kayam karenge [We have successfully established Islamic rule in one side of the fake (Durand) line and similarly on the other side too we will also defeat the traitor, slave and Dollar-hungry (Pakistan) Army to establish Islamic rule in our beloved land].

Indeed, TTP and its affiliates have also carried out some attacks since then, including:

  • August 10: Five FC personnel were injured in a grenade attack and firing incident by TTP in the Jamrud town of Khyber District, KP.
  • August 10: TTP terrorists carried out a remote-controlled explosion targeting policemen in the Kulachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District, KP. One policeman was injured in the blast. Subsequently, SFs killed two TTP militants, Abdul Rehman and Mir Zaman, in the area where the incident had occurred.
  • August 8: TTP militants shot at and injured Deputy Superintendent of Police Pir Syed, and held him hostage for 'violating the ceasefire' in the Matta sub-district of Swat District, KP. Along with six others, he was released after 12 hours, when tribal elders mediated on behalf of the abducted persons.

Meanwhile, on August 8,2022, the 11th Corps commander of Peshawar, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, who was leading the talks with TTP, was replaced by Lieutenant General Hassan Azhar Hayat. Lieutenant General Hameed was transferred to the Bahawalpur-based 31st Corps. Notably, Lieutenant General Hayat was reportedly part of the Doha talks and had served as General Officer Commanding in Miran Shah, besides also being the Brigade commander in the same area. This was described by some as a surprise move, essentially implying that the Army's role might be more focused on operations, rather than on talks.

The TTP-Government negotiations will now be determined by the outcomes of the shadow games playing out in the tribal areas across the Durand line. Whether or not the negotiations progress, an imminent escalation of violence appears likely. In the worst case, this could spread from the frontier into the urban areas, particularly given the fragile political and economic situation in the country.


PAKISTAN

 

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Balochistan: Targeting Oil and Gas
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty

Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 3, 2022, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) cadres blew up the gas pipeline in the Chashma Aab area of Mach in the Kachhi District of Balochistan. BLA ‘spokesman’ Azad Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack and warned, "Our such attacks will continue till the independence of occupied Balochistan." 

On July 29, 2022, Baloch Republican Guards (BRG) cadres blew up the gas pipeline in the Sui area of Dera Bugti District. BRG ‘spokesperson’ Dostin Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack and cautioned all oil and gas exploration companies in Dera Bugti to withdraw from “all exploitation projects of the occupiers, otherwise they would be responsible for their losses.”

On July 26, 2022, BLA cadres targeted a vehicle of an oil and gas exploration company in Bolan District. BLA ‘spokesman’ Jeehand Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack. "BLA warns all exploration companies to refrain from being involved in exploitation projects or they will be targeted", Jeehand Baloch stated.

On July 18, 2022, BLA cadres destroyed a gas plant in the Sheekhri area of Kalat District. Jeehand Baloch stated that the gas well was destroyed and the security guards at the site were taken into ‘custody’. As the guards were locals, they were released later with warnings. Their weapons were, however, confiscated. BLA warned locals to refrain from being accessories of enemy forces and its exploitation projects, or they would be targeted.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), militants have carried out at least six attacks targeting Gas/Oil installations and tankers in Balochistan in 2022 (data till August 14, 2022). Two Security Force (SF) personnel have died in these attacks. There was not a single such attack in 2021. A total of 248 such attacks have been recorded since August 16, 2004, when the first such attack was recorded. These 248 attacks have resulted in 41 fatalities and 45 persons injured. Five paramilitary troops have been killed and another 12 sustained injuries in two attacks near the Sui gas fields of Dera Bugti District.

Attacks targeting Gas/Oil Installations and Tankers: 2004*-2022**

Years
Incidents
Killed
Injured
2004
0
5
12
2005
5
10
16
2006
19
0
0
2007
31
1
1
2008
31
2
1
2009
29
0
3
2010
3
0
0
2011
52
3
10
2012
23
0
0
2013
10
0
0
2014
17
0
0
2015
10
0
0
2016
2
0
0
2017
0
0
0
2018
0
0
0
2019
2
4
2
2020
6
14
0
2021
0
0
0
2022**
6
2
0
Total*
248
41
45
Source: SATP; *Data since August 16, 2004, **Till August 14, 2022

Pakistan's economy is highly natural gas dependent, with this resource accounting for about 50 per cent of the country's total energy consumption. Attacks targeting this source of energy have significant detrimental impact on the country's economy, a reality the Baloch insurgents are well aware of, and seek to exploit. This also explains the disproportionate number of incidents and causalities, as the main objective of Baloch insurgents is to inflict economic damage on the Pakistani establishment, and not to kill people. Indeed, after the June 29, 2020, Pakistan Stock Exchange attack, which resulted in 15 deaths, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) 'spokesperson', Jeehand Baloch had declared,

Targeting the civilians is not a part of our war-philosophy and unlike our enemy, we do not measure the rate of success by counting the innocent lives taken, but our success resides in targeting the defenders of the exploitative scheme and all its symbols.

Natural gas was discovered at Sui in Balochistan as far back as in 1952. The commercial production of gas commenced in 1955. Ironically, more than 60 to 70 per cent of the population of the district does not have a ‘Sui gas’ facility even after 67 years. The Balochistan Minister for Education, Abdul Rahim Khan Ziaratwal, informed the Balochistan Assembly on August 28, 2017, that, of the 33 Districts in the Province, 23 had no supplies of natural gas. Later, on December 9, 2019, the then convener of the Subcommittee of the Senate Standing Committee on Planning Development and Reforms, Mir Kabeer, disclosed that 93 per cent of the people of Balochistan lacked gas supply, while 88 per cent were without electricity. According to a September 24, 2021, report presented to the National Assembly, only 36 per cent of the area of Balochistan had electricity in 2021.

According to the latest Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA)’s State of the Regulated Petroleum Industry Report 2019-20, Sindh’s share in gas supply was 45 per cent of the country’s total, whereas Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Balochistan and Punjab supplied 12, 11 and three per cent respectively. However, Province-wise gas consumption showed that Punjab’s share was 56 per cent, Sindh 33 per cent, KP nine per cent and Balochistan two per cent of total gas consumption during 2019-20.

Contrary to its contribution to national coffer, like the previous years, Balochistan has been neglected in budgetary allocation again. In 2022 budget, Punjab got lion’s share of 51.74 per cent in budgetary distribution of resources among the federation and provinces; followed by Sindh, 24.55 per cent; KP, 14.62 per cent and Balochistan, 9.09 per cent.  

On May 20, 2018, Former Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Abdul Quddus Bizenjo alleged that the province’s funds were being spent on the development of Punjab, and that the Federal Government had ignored Balochistan. The Federal Government has failed to fulfil its promise of giving the province its due share under the Public Sector Development Programme.

In an interview on May 7, 2019, Karima Baloch, former chairperson of the Baloch Students Organisation-Azad, had said that Pakistan "doesn't want the Baloch people but wants the resources there. It has been its policy of exploiting the resources." Significantly, BLA 'chief' Basheer Zeb, during a media interview on July 15, 2020, had asserted,

Karachi Stock Exchange attack [June 29, 2020] was carried out with the same objective of targeting the enemy's economy and the symbol of the exploitation of Baloch's national resources. The attack was also a message to the world that Pakistan had occupied the land of Baloch and plundered our resources with Chinese help providing military, economic and diplomatic support to Pakistan. Baloch will not accept the occupation of their land and will not tolerate relations between China and Pakistan involved in plundering Baloch's resources.

According to a July 29, 2022, report, Balochistan Liberation Front chief Allah Nazar Baloch stated, in a video message, that Baloch national wealth was being exploited: "Baloch is considered as an enemy", he declared, "I, on behalf of the Baloch nation, want to tell China that you should avoid being a partner of our occupier (Pakistan)."

Insurgency in Balochistan has principally been linked to a sense of deprivation and under-development in the region. The indices of Balochistan's underdevelopment of include:

  • According to the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index Report 2021, 65.32 percent of Balochistan's population lives in multidimensional poverty. In Punjab this percentage is 25.17. At least 40.99 per cent of Balochistan's population lives in severe poverty. In Punjab, this figure is just 12.22 per cent.
  • According to estimates of poverty carried out by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in May 2020, nearly 41 percent of households in Balochistan lived below the income poverty line, accounting for approximately 11 percent of the total poor households in the country.
  • According to United Nations Children's Fund report of February 15, 2018, around 60 to 70 per cent of children in Balochistan are out of school. 78 per cent of girls of school-going age and 67 per cent of boys, are out of school. One of the main reasons for so many out-of-school children is the long distances between schools and their homes. In Balochistan, on average, there is a primary school after every 30 kilometres, a middle school after every 260 kilometres, and a high school after every 360 kilometres.
  • At least 50 per cent of the population in Balochistan suffers from malnutrition. Rubaba Khan Buledi, president of the Women's Parliamentarian Forum in the Balochistan Legislative Assembly, disclosed on December 6, 2021, that 37 per cent of Pakistan's population is malnourished, while in Balochistan this proportion is nearly 50 per cent.
  • According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), in July 2021, "an estimated 500,000 people are facing crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity while another 100,000 people require immediate life-saving assistance" in Balochistan.

Through these recent attacks on gas and oil installations in the province, the Baloch insurgent groups have once again demonstrated that they will continue to fight against Pakistani state exploitation. With no visible signs of Islamabad making any changes in its extractive policies, such attacks are likely to continue.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
August 8-14, 2022

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

14
0
5
36
55

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist

2
0
0
0
2

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

1
5
7
0
13

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Chhattisgarh

1
0
1
0
2

India (Total)

2
5
8
0
15

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
3
0
0
4

KP

0
5
1
0
6

Punjab

1
0
0
0
1

PAKISTAN (Total)

2
8
1
0
11

Total (South Asia)

20
13
14
36
83
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

TTP blames Pakistani intelligence for the killing of its top 'commanders' in Paktika Province: The Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) blamed Pakistani intelligence agents, without offering evidence or elaborating for the killing of its three top 'commanders' and their driver in Paktika Province of Afghanistan. Pakistan Observer, August 9, 2022.

INDIA

India has first-hand experience of crime syndicates venturing into terrorism and getting 'state hospitality' in neighbouring country, states Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj: India has had first-hand experience of crime syndicates venturing into terrorism and then getting "state hospitality" in a neighbouring country despite being blacklisted by the UN, India's Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj said on August 9, in a veiled reference to D-company head Dawood Ibrahim who is believed to be in Pakistan". Daily Excelsior, August 11, 2022.

Pakistan smuggling narcotics to give shape to their nefarious designs, says SIA chargesheet: The State Investigation Agency (SIA) on August 10 said that Pakistan was smuggling narcotics to give shape to their nefarious designs. A statement of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Police issued in Jammu said that the SIA filed a chargesheet against two Punjab-based narco-smugglers and terrorists. Greater Kashmir, August 11, 2022.

NEPAL

President Bhandari sends Citizenship Bill back to Parliament for reconsideration: President Bidya Devi Bhandari, on August 14, has sent back the Citizenship Bill to the Federal Parliament for reconsideration. The Parliament had earlier sent the Bill to President Bhandari for authentication. According to President's office spokesperson Sagar Acharya, President Bhandari sent the Citizenship Bill back to Parliament for reconsideration. Khabar Hub, August 15, 2022.

K. P. Sharma Oli appeals CPN-Maoist Center and CPN-Unified Socialist leaders and cadres to join CPN-UML: Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) Chairman K. P. Sharma Oli, addressing a program in Kathmandu on August 7, has appealed to the leaders and cadres of Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center) and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist) to join the CPN-UML. My Republica, August 9, 2022.

PAKISTAN

TTP 'Checkpoint' established in Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants have established a 'check-post' on the Balasoor Top, besides roaming in other areas of the Matta tehsil (revenue unit) of Swat District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. TTP's return has spread a wave of fear and panic among residents who are demanding the Government take action against the militants. The Nation, August 13, 2022.

SRI LANKA

Political parties agree to implement PSC proposals for election reforms: All political parties, on August 9, have reached an agreement to implement a majority of the recommendations given by the Parliament Select Committee (PSC) to Identify Appropriate Reforms of the Election Laws and the Electoral System. The decision was reached during a discussion held Monday between the representatives of the Election Commission and the secretaries of the political parties representing the Parliament. Colombo Page, August 10, 2022.

 
 
For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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