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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 21, No. 13, September 19, 2022
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.


ASSESSMENT

  • INDIA: Assam: Assam: Ambiguous Accord - Giriraj Bhattacharjee
  • PAKISTAN: IEDs: Hidden Danger - Tushar Ranjan Mohanty

 


INDIA

 

    Print

 

Assam: Ambiguous Accord
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 15, 2022, a tripartite agreement was signed between the Union Government, Assam Government and representatives of eight Adivasi groups. The groups that signed the agreement were Birsa Commando Force (BCF), Badal Tudu faction of BCF (BCF-BT), Adivasi People’s Army (APA), All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), the Amrit Beck faction of AANLA (AANLA-AB), Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), Chunka Tudu faction of ACMA (ACMA-CT), Santhal Tiger Force (STF). The agreement was signed by BCF chairman Durga Hasda, ACMA chairman Ashim Hasda, AANLA chairman Dipen Nayak, STF chairman Persius Hembrom, AANLA- AB Amrit Beck, BCF-Badal Tudu chairman Tinku Tudu and ACMA-CT general secretary Sinesh Hembrom.

ACMA had signed a Suspension of Operations (SoOs) agreement in 2001; followed by BCF, in 2004; APA, on July 16, 2011, and and AANLA, on September 1, 2011. Later, 557 cadres of BCF, 453 cadres of ACMA, 134 cadres of STF, 90 cadres of AANLA, and 70 cadres of APA surrendered at Sarusajai Sports Complex in Guwahati on January 24, 2012. Since then, they had been holding talks without reaching a final agreement.

According to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), the groups agreed to:

  1. Abandon armed group violence
  2. Follow the rule of law established by the Constitution of the country
  3. Join the peaceful democratic process

UMHA also shared the major provisions of the agreement which included:

  1. Fulfilling political, economic and educational aspirations
  2. Protecting, preserving and promoting social, cultural, linguistic and ethnic identities
  3. Ensuring rapid and focused development of tea gardens along with Adivasi villages/areas throughout the state
  4. Establishment of an Adivasi Welfare and Development Council by the Government of Assam
  5. Necessary measures by the Government of India and the Government of Assam for the rehabilitation of cadres of armed groups and for the welfare of tea garden workers.
  6. A special development package of INR 10 billion, to be provided over a period of five years, for infrastructure development in Adivasi populated villages/areas.

Significantly, the Government of India has signed several agreements over the past three years to end extremism and bring lasting peace to the northeastern states. The principal agreements include:

  1. An agreement was signed with the Sabir Kumar Debbarma faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura in August 2019, resulting in the surrender of 88 cadres with 44 weapons.
  2. An agreement was signed on January 16, 2020, to resolve the 23-year-old Bru-Reang refugee crisis. The agreement would ensure that 37,000 internally displaced persons are permanently settled in Tripura.
  3. To resolve the five-decade-old Bodo issue in Assam, the Bodo Accord was signed on January 27, 2020, resulting in the surrender of 1,615 cadres, with a huge cache of arms and ammunition, at Guwahati on January 30, 2020.
  4. To resolve the long-running dispute in the Karbi regions of Assam, the Karbi Anglong Agreement  was signed on September 4, 2021, and more than 1,000 armed cadres renounced violence and joined the mainstream of society.
  5. An agreement was signed on March 29, 2022, to settle the dispute over six areas out of a total of twelve, where an interstate boundary dispute between the states of Assam and Meghalaya existed.

Indeed, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while speaking on the occasion of the signing of the latest agreement, declared that the Central Government had “decided that, before 2024, all border disputes between the North Eastern states and all disputes related to armed groups will be resolved.” He boasted, that “this [Adivasi] agreement will prove to be another important milestone in the direction of making North-East extremism-free by 2025.”

However, while being positive, the Government, needs to remain cautious about the success of these agreements, as each of them has its own lacunae. Many past agreements have created opportunities for new groups to emerge and carry forward existing or new ‘struggles’.

The issue of a separate State of Bodoland and Autonomous State in the Hill District, which was supposed to have been finally addressed by the Bodo and Karbi Accords, for instance, still exists. While the Government signed agreements with knowns groups and these came into the mainstream, a new group emerged. The Bodo National Students’ Union (BoNSU) formed in February 2022, is now renewing the demand for a separate State of Bodoland. BoNSU president Bonjit Manjil Basumatary claimed, “Only the creation of a separate Bodoland State will fulfil the dreams of the Bodo people. The indigenous people are becoming guests in their own backyard due to the failure of government to protect their lands.”

It is pertinent to recall, here, that the main demand of the Adivasi groups for Schedule Tribe (ST) status has only promised to be expedited, and has not been expressively granted in the latest agreement. Understandably, caution has been exercised in conceding the demand, as any imbalance will raise complications for the Government, as the existing communities within the ST list have repeatedly raised objections on the grounds that it would result in a dilution of benefits currently accruing to them. Besides, groups like the Chutiya, Matak, Moran, Koch Rajbongshi and Tai Ahom are also demanding ST status. Further, the State Government has also spoken about the possibility of conferring ST status on the Karbi people living outside the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council areas. Each of these proposals and demands invites strong opposition for other groups.

The ST groups in the State are divided into ST-Plains and ST-Hills. The existing 14 ST-Plains groups include the Bodo, Rabha, Tiwa, Karbi, Dimasa, Mising, Sonowal, Hajong, Garo and Deori. The ST-Hill include Chakma, Dimasa, Garo, Hajong, Hmar, Khasi, Jaintia, Synteng, Pnar, War, Bhoi, Lyngngam, Lakher, Man (Tai-speaking), any Mizo Tribe, any Naga tribes, Lalung, Synteng, and any of the 37 Kuki tribes.

As the ST status issue remain unaddressed, the success of the latest agreement remains uncertain. Indeed, Prem Hasda, the Working President of the Adivasi National Convention Committee, an umbrella organization of some 14 Adivasi bodies, noted,

It's surprising that the [Assam] chief minister has announced about the agreement without consulting with the stakeholders. Currently the discussion was only happening with the ceasefire groups and the civil society groups were kept out of it. But if the demand of ST status to the community is withdrawn from the agreement like reported, the entire peace process will be futile. It will not solve any issue of the community.

Further, the MoU signed (parts of which are available on the Facebook page, Digital Bodoland) promises to ‘expediate’ (without any deadline) the process of scheduling Adivasi inclusion in the ST list by a Committee of a Group of Ministers of Assam (CGoM) which is looking into this aspect. The CGOM was formed on January 8, 2019, after the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order (Amendment) Bill, 2019, was introduced in the Rajya Sabha (the Upper House of India’s Parliament) to include certain Communities in the list of the Scheduled Tribes in relation to the State of Assam. The bill had named 36 Adivasi communities besides the Chutiya, Matak, Moran, Koch Rajbangsi and Tai Ahom for inclusion in the existing schedule. The MoU (parts of which are available in Facebook page Digital Bodoland) also says that process to include another 21 Adivasi communities to the list will be forwarded to CGoM.

Clearly, the successful conclusion of these agreements creates majors challenge that will require careful handling within an inclusive approach. The exclusion of any group will create new wedges between the protected class those that remain ‘non-protected’, potentially fueling renewed violence in the region. 


PAKISTAN

 

    Print

IEDs: Hidden Danger
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty

Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 16, 2022, one Frontier Corps trooper was killed and three were injured when Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) cadres targeted a Frontier Corps vehicle with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) on Sabzal Road at Podgali Chowk in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. BLA ‘spokesman’ Azad Baloch claimed responsibility of the attack.

On September 13, 2022, a peace committee member and two of his Police guards were among eight people killed and seven injured in an IED explosion at the Kot Katai village of the Bara Bandi area in the Kabal tehsil (revenue unit) of Swat District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The peace committee member, identified as Idrees Khan, was the target of the blast. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that Idrees Khan had been on their hit-list for nearly 13 years. Idrees Khan had played a prominent role in mobilising resistance against the TTP in the Swat Valley in 2007. He was named chairman of the village Aman Committee in recognition of his bravery, and had survived multiple attempts on his life in the past.

On September 12, 2022, five Army soldiers were killed when Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) cadres attacked an Army convoy with an IED at Hamzai Koh in the Mand tehsil of Kech District in Balochistan. BLF ‘spokesman’ ‘Major’ Gwahram Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack.

On August 31, 2022, one employee of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) was killed, and another sustained injuries, when militants detonated an IED at the work site of PPL in the Sheikhri area of Kalat town (Kalat District) in Balochistan.

On August 30, 2022, one Frontier Corps trooper was killed and another was injured in an IED blast in the Yusufabad area of Khar tehsil in Bajaur District, KP.

On August 13, 2022, three militants were killed and five were injured when militants were trying to plant an IED in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District, KP.

On August 13, 2022, a soldier identified as Sajid was killed in an IED blast in the Bara Banda area of Lower Dir District, KP.

On August 10, 2022, two terrorists were killed in an exchange of fire with the Army's Quick Reaction Force, after the Force responded to an explosion that was triggered by an IED that targeted a Police vehicle in the Kulachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District, KP.

On August 9, 2022, six persons were injured and nearby shops and vehicles were damaged in an IED blast on the Anam-Bostan Road in Nushki town (Nushki District), Balochistan.

On August 4, 2022, a man was killed when an IED that he was carrying exploded near the Deputy Commissioner's office in Kotri town, Jamshoro District, Sindh.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistan has already recorded a total of at least 22 incidents of IED attacks, resulting in 41 deaths (36 SF personnel and five civilians) and over 58 persons injured, in 2022 (data till September 17). These incidents have been registered in three provinces: Balochistan (13 incidents, 27 killed and 23 injured), KP (seven incidents, 12 killed and 14 injured) and Sindh (two incidents, two killed and 21 injured). During the corresponding period of the previous year, Pakistan recorded a total of at least 17 such incidents, resulting in 17 deaths (16 SF personnel and one terrorist) and over 32 persons injured. The whole 2021 reported 23 incidents of IED attacks resulting in 29 deaths (27 SF personnel, one civilian and one terrorist) and over 39 persons injured. Since March 6, 2000, the number of such explosions stands at 573, resulting in 1,158 deaths and over 2,700 persons injured. According to SATP, between 2018 and 2021, at least 128 persons (44 civilians, 83 SF personnel and one terrorist) have been killed in 83 IED attacks while 313 persons (200 civilians and 113 SF personnel) sustained injuries. [Since media access is heavily restricted in the most disturbed areas of Pakistan, and there is only fitful release of information by Government agencies, the actual figures could be much higher.]

  IED attacks in Pakistan: 2000*-2022**

Year

Incidents
Killed
Injured

2000

4
35
87+

2001

2
0
34+

2002

11
17
104+

2003

12
5
73+

2004

6
5
32+

2005

6
9
26+

2006

10
24
79+

2007

17
48
79+

2008

11
112
27+

2009

24
107
86+

2010

28
61
222+

2011

24
24
46+

2012

41
49
109+

2013

71
211
610+

2014

78
116
375+

2015

57
75
133+

2016

40
47
157+

2017

26
44
47+

2008

19
25
72+

2019

23
27
112+

2020

18
47
90+

2021

23
29
39+

2022

22
41
58+

Total

573
1,158
2,700+
Source: SATP, *March 6, 2000, **Data till September 18, 2022

IEDs remained a serious threat in the tribal areas of Pakistan, i.e., Balochistan and KP. Worse, when the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) started returning to their homes in 2017, after a series of military operations in the tribal areas of KP and the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), they found their villages and areas surrounding their homes littered with deadly landmines.

Mohammad Mumtaz Khan, an IDP from South Waziristan, describing his personal horror story about IEDs, on April 26, 2018, “I am lucky that I got away with a small injury. It may not be so the next time around. The mountains and valleys were teeming with improvised explosive devices and explosive remnants of war.”

Raza Shah, who heads the Sustainable Peace and Development Organization, an active member of the global Control Arms Coalition and International Action Network on Small Arms, agreed, “Despite having cleared the area of militants, it is not possible for many to move about freely as the place remains infested with landmines.”

In 2012, the Army established the Counter IED Explosives and Munitions School to help train responders to reduce the IED threat.  An inter-agency meeting, headed by Lieutenant General Rashad Mahmood, the then Chief of General Staff, was held on February 11, 2013. During the meeting it was decided to create a new force to combat the increasing use of IEDs in terrorism incidents. Later, a March 2, 2014, media report quoting an unnamed defence official, claimed that the anti-IED Division established within the armed forces had become fully functional in multidimensional anti-IED operations in various cities and troubled areas of the country. Another unnamed senior security official disclosed, on December 15, 2018, that 22 demining teams were being formed by the Army to defuse and remove IEDs and landmines in KP and the erstwhile FATA. At the same time, comprehensive awareness campaigns were also in the process of being launched. According to the official, extra security measures had been taken at all levels and on all tiers in order to curb the incidents of IED attacks in market places, civilian gatherings and religious processions. Further in 2015, the Police School of Explosive Handling, a first of its kind, was established at Nowshera in KP, to administer different courses on explosive handling.

According to documents shared by a military official quoted in Pakistan Forward on December 21, 2021, more than 80 teams were operating throughout the Tribal Districts to remove unexploded ordnance, including improvised explosive devices and toy bombs. At least 37 security personnel have been killed and 17 injured during the defusing process since 2018. Pakistan has one of the highest levels of casualties in the world due to landmines and explosive remnants of war. In 2017, it recorded 135 casualties, which was the highest in the world and accounted for 28 per cent of the global total. According to the Landmine and Cluster Munitions Monitor, Pakistan ranked seventh in the world, with a total of 4,755 such casualties between 1999 and 2018.

Though Pakistan has made efforts to fight the IED menace in its tribal areas, the terrorist continues to inflict significant harm with IEDs. As terror thrives in the country, the threat will persist.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
September 12-18, 2022

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

19
0
0
55
74

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist

1
0
0
0
1

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
3
0
3

India (Total)

0
0
3
0
3

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

4
10
0
0
14

KP

6
5
3
0
14

PAKISTAN (Total)

10
15
3
0
28

Total (South Asia)

30
15
6
55
106
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

UNAMA deeply concerned at spate of extrajudicial executions of war prisoners in Panjshir: The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on September 14 said that it is deeply concerned about alleged spate of extrajudicial executions of war prisoners in Panjshir Province. UNAMA tweeted that the parties to the war have clear international obligations toward prisoners. UNAMA has also emphasized that it is monitoring the situation. Hasht-e-Subh Daily, September 15, 2022.

NRF Supreme Council urges the world to recognize Taliban as "Terrorist Group": The Supreme Council of National Resistance Front (NRF) on September 14 called on the world not to give more time to the Taliban regime, urging the international community to recognize them as a "terrorist group". In a statement published by this council, it is said that the Taliban shot and massacred hundreds of residents in Panjshir Province and committed "genocide". Hasht-e-Subh Daily, September 15, 2022.

Taliban fail to fulfill their promises on Human Rights, says EU Special Representative for Afghanistan Nicholson Thomas: The EU Special Representative for Afghanistan, Thomas Nicholson, said on September 12 at the meeting of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) that the Taliban regime has not been able to fulfill its promises concerning human rights in Afghanistan. Nicholson presented his reports on the Taliban's dominance in Afghanistan and voiced his deep concern over the increase in violations of human rights and international humanitarian law in this country. Hasht-e-Subh Daily, September 13, 2022.

INDIA

Union and Assam Government signs MoU with eight Adivasi militant groups: On September 15, the Centre and Assam Government signed a tripartite agreement with eight armed Adivasi groups in Assam. The groups that signed the agreement are Birsa Commando Force (BCF), Badal Tudu faction of BCF (BCF-BT), Adivasi People's Army (APA), Amri Beck faction of AANLA (AANLA-AB), All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), Chunka Tudu faction of ACMA (ACMA-CT), and Santhal Tiger Force (STF). The Indian Express, September 16, 2022.

700 Maoist sympathisers, including 300 'militias', surrender before Police in Odisha: Around 700 Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) sympathisers, including 300 'militia' (people's army of Maoists) members, surrendered before the Odisha Police and Border Security Force (BSF) at the Andrahal BSF camp in Malkangiri District of Odisha on September 17. All the 700 sympathisers, including 'militia' members opposed the Maoist ideology in front of the local people and the media by burning the dress material and literature of Maoists and giving the slogans "Maobadi Murdabad". The Telegraph, September 18, 2022.

China blocks UN proposal to blacklist Pakistan-based 26/11 LeT militant Sajid Mir: China has blocked a proposal by the US and India at the United Nations (UN) to blacklist Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militant Sajid Mir, one of India's most wanted terrorists and the main handler of the 2008 (26/11) Mumbai attacks. It is learnt that Beijing put a hold on the proposal moved by the US and co-designated by India to blacklist Mir under the 1267 Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee of the UN Security Council as a global terrorist and subject him to assets freeze, travel ban and arms embargo. The New Indian Express, September 17, 2022.

 
NEPAL

President must certify Citizenship Bill, says JPP-N President Hridayesh Tripathi: President of Janata Pragatisheel Party-Nepal (JPP-N), Hridayesh Tripathi, on September 12, has said that there is no option for President Bidya Devi Bhandari but to certify the 'Bill to amend the Nepal Citizenship Act, 2063'. He argued that President Bhandari had no option but to verify the bill, which was passed by both houses of the federal parliament for the second time, based on the constitution and the recognition of parliamentary supremacy. My Republica, September 13, 2022.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan writes to Afghanistan seeking arrest of JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar, says report: Pakistan has formally written a letter to Kabul, asking to locate, report and arrest Maulana Masood Azhar - the chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). "We have written a one-page letter to the Afghan Foreign Ministry, asking it to locate, report and arrest Masood Azhar as we believe that he is hiding somewhere in Afghanistan," an unnamed official said." Geo News, September 14, 2022.

SRI LANKA

Notice issued to former President Maithripala Sirisena: Colombo Fort Magistrate Thilina Gamage issued a notice on September 16, to former President Maithripala Sirisena, ordering him to appear in court on October 14, to present facts regarding his failure to prevent the terrorist attack on Easter Sunday despite having prior knowledge of the Easter Sunday attack while being the Defense Minister. The former President has been named as a suspect in a private complaint filed by Father Cyril Gamini and Yesuraj Ganesan, who lost a leg in the terrorist attack on Easter Sunday in April 2019. Colombo Page, August 6, 2021.

For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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