South Asia Terrorism Portal
HGB Violent Reassertion Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On July 28, 2022, Security Forces (SFs) killed two Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) militants in the Manzer Khel area of the North Waziristan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction is a breakaway of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
On July 23, 2022, three HGB militants were killed in the North Waziristan District.
On July 13, 2022, SFs killed four HGB militants in the Karam Khel area of the North Waziristan District.
On July 6, 2022, in an attack, HGB militants killed a Pakistani soldier and injured another in the North Waziristan District.
On July 5, 2022, at least 15 Pakistani soldiers were injured when a motorcycle-borne HGB suicide attacker targeted a SF convoy at Tahir Dawar Chowk near Khadi Market on Bannu-Miran Shah Road under the Mir Ali subdivision of North Waziristan District.
On July 2, 2022, the Security Forces conducted an Intelligence-based Operation (IBO) and killed three HGB militants in North Waziristan District. Two soldiers were also killed during the operation.
According to Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, a Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-based journalist affiliated with New York Times, HGB has now expanded its area of operation from its traditional areas of North Waziristan to the neighboring Districts of Lakki Marwat, Bannu, Tank and Dera Ismail Khan, all in KP.
Some of the suspected HGB-linked incidents reported from these areas included:
On July 24, 2022, a soldier, Lance Naik Mujeeb (31), was killed in a clash between SFs and terrorists in the Draban area of Dera Ismail Khan District.
On July 5, 2022, two Police personnel were killed by militants in Tank District.
On July 4, 2022, two traffic Police personnel were shot dead by militants in Dera Ismail Khan District.
According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, HGB-linked incidents have resulted in 52 fatalities (two civilians, 25 SF personnel and 25 terrorists) since October 21, 2021, when a 20-day ceasefire announced by HGB ended (data till July 31, 2022). During the corresponding period preceding, no HGB-linked fatality was reported.
However, one HGB-linked incident was reported before October 21, 2021. On April 20, 2020, five HGB militants and one soldier were killed when militants opened fire on a military checkpoint in Boya in the North Waziristan District. Three soldiers were injured in the ensuing clash.
After the Taliban’s ouster from power in Afghanistan in 2001, Hafiz Gul Bahadur left for Pakistan and took shelter in the tribal areas. He formed his group and later, when TTP was formed, he led the TTP in NWA. However, differences erupted within the TTP leadership. Tribal differences are believed to be responsible for the split – as TTP was mostly led by the Mehsud tribe. Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the HGB leader, on the other hand, is from the Mada Khel clan of the Uthmanzai Wazirs. Beside Gul Bahadur, other prominent leaders of the HGB faction include Maulana Sadiq Noor of the Daur tribe. North Waziristan District, which is HGB’s traditional base, is dominated by the Wazir and Duar tribes.
HGB broke away from TTP in July 2008 as it wanted to focus on the Afghan theatre. It maintained good relations with the Afghan Taliban and, according to a December 2021 report, the Afghan Taliban handed over parts of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)’s abandoned base in Shkin in the Gomal District of Paktika Province of Afghanistan to HGB, as a reward for their role in the Afghan insurgency.
Hafiz Gul Bahadar had an undocumented/verbal agreement with the Pakistani government in 2006 which was renewed in 2008. However, Bahadar formally renounced the agreement on May 30, 2014, after accusing the Pakistani government of launching air strikes in the then North Waziristan Agency (NWA), which killed seven key HGB ‘commanders.’ He also asked tribesmen in NWA to vacate homes and shift to safer places. Further, he requested the tribesmen not to seek shelter in the camps for displaced persons set up by the government, and told them, instead, to relocate to Afghanistan.
Subsequently, the Pakistan Army launched operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) on June 15, 2014, targeting TTP. The operation also weakened HGB, forcing its cadres to flee across the border, into Afghanistan. One of Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s close aides, Maulvi Aleem Khan Ustad, deserted him in 2014 and started operating independently. Subsequently, in 2014 itself, TTP’s then chief Mullah Fazlullah appointed Akhtar Khalil as Amir of North Waziristan, to fill the void left by HGB. Later in 2021, Akhtar Khalil parted ways with TTP and joined HGB. In between, on November 27, 2020, Maulvi Aleem Khan Ustad, who had earlier left HGB, joined TTP.
According to partial data compiled by SATP, 87 HGB militants were killed in 2014 in just four separate incidents. These included:
December 7: 30 HGB militants were killed when their hideouts were pounded from the air in Mra Panga and Masdaq villages in the Dattakhel area of NWA.
October 21: Pakistan Airforce (PAF) fighter jets targeted terrorist hideouts in the Madakhel, Dattakhel, and Shawal Valley areas of NWA in the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and reportedly killed 30 HGB militants, including a 'commander,' Daud Wazir.
October 11: At least four suspected HGB militants were killed in a US drone strike in the Shawal tehsil of NWA.
September 13: SFs killed 23 HGB militants in air strikes in the Tirah Valley of Khyber Agency of erstwhile FATA.
No further HGB-linked incidents were recorded in 2015 and 2016, as HGB lay low and failed to carry out any operations within Pakistan.
Meanwhile, a senior HGB ‘commander’ visited Peshawar and Islamabad in August 2021 to meet senior Pakistani security officials, leading to the release of 20 of the group’s members by the government. Later, on October 1, 2021, HGB announced a ceasefire for 20 days. However, on October 22, 2021, HGB’s Shura, based in the Pasa Mela area of Spera in the Khost Province of Afghanistan, announced the termination of the ceasefire, claiming no headway in the talks. There was no response from the Government regarding the HGB faction’s assertion.
HGB, like TTP, has regrouped after the Afghan Taliban's takeover in Kabul. Both HGB- and TTP-linked violence has increased. Amir Rana, Director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) in the article, "Pakistan's peace talks with TTP: Prospective outcome and implications," published on July 20, 2022, noted,
Indeed, HGB wants to put pressure on Islamabad. The group's growing belligerence stems from the belief that the Pakistani state apparatus, under extreme economic duress, can be forced to grant greater concessions, if strong-arm tactics are adopted. It is, consequently, quite likely that that HGB violence will continue, even escalate, even as the government continues with its talks with TTP.
Chhattisgarh: Sukma: Crumbling Bastion Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On July 29, 2022, a ‘commander’ of the ‘Katekalyan Area Committee’ of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), identified as Rakesh Madkam, charged with eight cases of violence and carrying a reward of INR 500,000 on his head was killed in an encounter with the Security Forces (SFs) near Bindrapani village forest in Sukma District. SFs recovered the body of the slain Maoist along with a country-made gun, ammunition and other Maoist-related material, from the encounter site.
On July 22, 2022, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an encounter with SFs in a forested patch near Muler village under Phulbagdi Police Station limits in Sukma District. A group of Maoists from the ‘Kerlapal Area Committee’ opened fire on the patrolling team and tried to ambush it in the Gogunda Hill area, following which the SFs retaliated. After the encounter ended, the body of a male cadre was recovered from the spot. The slain Maoist’s identity is yet to be established.
On July 1, 2022, during a gun battle with District Reserve Guard (DRG) personnel, a member of the CPI-Maoist ‘Malanger Area Committee’, identified as Kamlesh and carrying a bounty of INR 500,000 on his head, was killed in the Borapara Forest under Gadiras Police Station limits in Sukma District. After the encounter, his body was recovered from the spot.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least five Maoists have been killed in Sukma District since the beginning of 2022 (data till July 31). During the corresponding period in 2021, six Maoists had been killed in the District. A total of 15 Maoist fatalities were recorded in the whole of 2021. Meanwhile, since its creation on January 16, 2012, Sukma District has recorded a total of 215 Maoist fatalities (data till July 31, 2022).
Significantly, fighting the Maoists, the SFs neutralised at least 23 Maoists in a major assault in the dense forests of Elmaguda, close to Kasalpad and Minpa villages in the Chintagufa area in Sukma District on March 21, 2020. 18 SF personnel were also killed in during the operation.
Meanwhile, one trooper has lost his life fighting the Maoists in the current year, so far (data till July 31, 2022), as against 25 in the corresponding period in 2021. Another one SF fatality was recorded in the remaining period of 2021. Thus, the SF:Maoist kill ratio favoured the SFs at 1:5 in 2022 (data till July 31), as well as on the average between 2012-2021, at 1:1.12. The ratio, however, was in favour of the Maoists in 2021, at 1.73:1, 2017 at 3.5:1, 2015 at 1.18:1, and 2012 at 3:1.
Search operations and combing raids have resulted in the arrest of five Maoists in the District in the current year (data till July 31, 2022), in addition to 42 in 2021 (24 in the corresponding period of 2021). Mounting SF pressure has led to the surrender of 116 Maoists (data till July 31, 2022), in addition to 92 in 2021 (eight in the corresponding period of 2021).
Meanwhile, civilian fatalities in Sukma have followed a cyclical trend over the years, since the creation of theS District in 2012. Three such fatalities have been recorded in the current year (data till July 31, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2021, four civilians were killed. Another one civilian was killed during the remaining period of 2021. At peak, a total of 33 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2013, while a low of three fatalities was recorded in the District in 2014.
Other parameters of violence suggest that the Maoists’ strength is waning. A total of 620 Maoist-linked incidents have been recorded in the District since its formation. The year wise total number of Maoist-related incidents increased between 2013 and 2016 – 2013 (23), 2014 (36), 2015 (72), and 2016 (100). Thereafter, the numbers declined, barring 2018 and 2021; dropping to 72 in 2017, rising to 92 in 2018, again falling to 66 in 2019 and 47 in 2020, to rise again to 50 in 2021.
Meanwhile, since its formation in 2012, Sukma has recorded 30 major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities), with none of these recorded in the current year (data till July 31, 2022). The Maoists have triggered at least 61 blasts, killing 75 persons and injuring 113 others in the District over this period. A high of 13 such incidents was recorded in 2016, followed by 12 in 2015, and 11 in 2017. The current year has already recorded two explosions so far.
Maoists have executed 24 incidents of arson since the formation of the District, of which a maximum of nine incidents was recorded in 2017, and a low of one such incident in 2021. No such incident has taken place in the current year, as yet.
Commenting on the situation during his visit to Sukma District as a part of the public interaction drive (Bhent-Mulaqat Abhiyan), Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel observed, on May 19, 2022,
Meanwhile, some other positive developments have taken place.
On June 13, 2022, the Chhattisgarh Government decided to reopen as many as 260 Government-run schools, of 400 schools in the four Districts of Sukma, Narayanpur, Dantewada, and Bijapur – of the Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE]-affected Bastar region – which had been shut down 15 years ago for a variety of reasons, including CPI-Maoist violence. The initiative was a response to community demands. Subsequently, on June 16, 2022, the State Government observed 'Shala Pravesh Utsav' (school entrance fair), and reopened these institutions.
On July 15, 2022, Special Judge for National Investigation Agency (NIA) cases, Deepak Kumar Deshlhre, acquitted 121 tribals arrested in connection with the April 24, 2017, Burkapal Naxal attack in Sukma District, in which 25 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were ambushed by the Maoists. These 121 tribals, including one woman, were arrested between 2017 and 2019 and were booked under various sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC), Arms Act, Explosive Substances Act, Chhattisgarh Special Public Security Act and Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA).
On the security front, according to a January 4, 2022, report, 75 fortified Police Stations and 32 Night Landing Helipads were constructed to reduce Naxalite activities in the interior areas of ‘Bastar division’. Significantly, after the Police Stations were established, it has helped in providing electricity to the ‘inaccessible areas’ of Sukma's Golapalli, Palodi, Elaramadgu, Kondasavali and Tarrem. Moreover, the establishment of these Police Stations has resulted in the reduction of Naxalite activities in Minpa, Badhesetti, Murkam, Kamargudha, Nala, Mankapal, Silger Mokur, Koilagudha, Karigudham, Potakpalli, Elmagudha, all in Sukma and others areas of the Bastar Division. The construction of another 63 new Police Stations has also started.
Further, according to a March 31, 2022, report, to fight against Naxalism in Sukma, a force named ‘Durga Fighters,’ comprising of 32 female personnel, has been constituted by the Chhattisgarh Police. The leader of the ‘Durga Fighters,’ Asha Sen, stated, “All the force members had pledged to make Sukma a ‘Naxal Free Region’.”
Currently, 38 CRPF battalions (each yielding roughly 400 personnel in the field) are deployed in the ‘Bastar Division’ which comprises seven Districts (Bastar, Kanker, Kondagaon, Bijapur, Narayanpur, Dantewada and Sukma).
Sukma is on the list of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’, from eight States across India released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on June 19, 2021. Additionally, Sukma along with six other Districts of the State (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, and Rajnandgaon), is also included among the 70 Naxal-affected Districts in 10 States across India, covered under the Centre’s Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, which funds focused operations against the rebels.
Significant consolidation has been achieved by the SFs in Sukma, one of the last enduring Maoist heartlands. Challenges, however, persist, with much of the Maoist operational capacity in the District intact, despite substantial security and developmental consolidation. The State’s dominance is, nevertheless, inching forward, with some developmental and welfare outreach providing succour to the people. With little possibilities of a significant Maoist revival in the District and, indeed, in the wider Bastar region, it is perhaps time to explore the possibilities of a political initiative to end this enduring conflict.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia July 25-31, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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