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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 21, No. 18, October 25, 2022
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.


ASSESSMENT

  • PAKISTAN: Balochistan: BLA Offensive - Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
  • INDIA: Chhattisgarh: Kanker - Resurgent Vulnerabilities - Deepak Kumar Nayak

 


PAKISTAN

 

    Print

 

Balochistan: BLA Offensive
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 22, 2022, six Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and another four were injured when the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) targeted an Army convoy at the Zarghoon Ghat area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. While claiming responsibility for the attack, BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch stated that an SF convoy consisting of 10 military vehicles was targeted by the group’s Special Tactical Operations Squad (STOS), adding that at least two enemy vehicles were destroyed. He warned that BLA would continue to target ‘occupying forces’ until their full withdrawal and the ‘liberation of the Baloch motherland’.

On October 21, 2022, four SF personnel were killed and another two injured, when BLA cadres targeted an Army vehicle with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in the Izbotki area of Johan tehsil (revenue unit) in the Kalat District. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack.

On October 21, 2022, Hafeezullah, a local agent of the Pakistani military intelligence, was killed by BLA cadres in the Zehri area of Khuzdar District. While claiming responsibility, BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed that Hafeezullah was involved in the forcible disappearances of Baloch youth in Zehri and adjoining areas. He added that the BLA would ‘bring to justice’ all other local collaborators of ‘enemy forces’ as well.

On October 19, 2022, a soldier was killed and several were injured when BLA targeted an Army outpost in the Tigran area of Zamuran tehsil in Kech District. While claiming responsibility for the attack, BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch reiterated the attacks against the occupying forces would continue.

On October 7, 2022, one Army soldier was killed and two were injured when BLA cadres targeted an Army post with hand grenade near the Degree College in the Sariab Road area of Quetta. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack.

On October 7, 2022, one Army soldier was killed and several were injured when BLA cadres attacked an Army outpost in the Sheh Mardan area of Kalat District. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed responsibility for the attack.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), BLA-initiated attacks have led to 37 SF deaths in the current year (data till October 23, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2021, BLA had killed 11 SF personnel. The whole of 2021 recorded 20 SF deaths in BLA attacks.

Since August 1, 2004, when the first BLA attack recorded by SATP, five soldiers and a civilian were killed when BLA cadres targeted SF vehicles in the Khuzdar District, at least 171 SF personnel have been killed by the BLA (data till October 23, 2022). On year-on-year basis, fatalities recorded in 2022, with still over two months to go, is the highest in a year since then. The previous high of 31 was recorded way back in 2011.  Significantly, BLA claimed that SF fatalities were on a steep and continuous rise since 2019. While no BLA-claimed SF fatality was reported in 2018, there was one such fatality in 2019, increasing to eight in 2020 and spiking to 20 in 2021.

Since August 1, 2004, BLA-linked violence has also led to 146 civilian deaths, including eight in the current year. The BLA claims that those killed were ‘state agents’.  

Between August 1, 2004, and October 23, 2022, 147 BLA cadres have also been killed. 

Meanwhile, BLA’s growing strength is reflected in the February 2, 2022, simultaneous attacks by BLA cadres on the Panjgur and Nuskhi Army camps in Balochistan. Though Pakistan Government sources claimed only four SF fatalities, Radio Zrumbesh, quoting BLA ‘spokesman’ Jeeyand Baloch, claimed that 45 SF personnel were killed when a ‘martyred’ fidayeen (suicide attacker) rammed his explosive-laden vehicle into the main gate of the Frontier Corps headquarters at Nushki, clearing the way for other fidayeen to enter.

More recently, on September 25, 2022, six Pakistan Army officials, including two majors, were killed after a helicopter ‘crashed’ during a rescue mission near Khost in the Harnai District of Balochistan. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed responsibility, asserting that the helicopter had been shot down by rocket launchers.

Moreover, BLA carried out an audacious attack on April 26, 2022, in which at least five persons, including three Chinese nationals, their Pakistani driver and a security guard, were killed when a women suicide bomber blew herself up near a van, transporting Chinese nationals from the Karachi University Hostel to the Confucius Institute in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. A Karachi University spokesperson confirmed that three of the deceased were Chinese nationals. BLA claimed responsibility for the attack. The female suicide bomber, Shaari Baloch alias Bramsh, who belonged to BLA’s Majeed Brigade, was the first Baloch woman suicide bomber.

Indeed, among the major Baloch insurgent groups, such as the Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA), BLA has been leading from the front in recent times. Since January 2022, different Baloch groups have carried out at least 68 attacks, out of which BLA alone was responsible for 36.

Comprised mostly of Marri and Bugti tribe members, BLA was formed in response to the growing resentment in Balochistan over the continuous Government exploitation of the province’s natural resources and the neglect of development and welfare. The group has about 6,000 cadre spread across Balochistan and in the bordering areas of Afghanistan. It is currently led by Hyrbyair Marri who is in exile in London. Bashir Zeb Baloch is the ‘commander-in-chief’ of the outfit.

BLA is the only Baloch groups with a dedicated suicide squad, the Majeed Brigade. The Majeed Brigade is named after two brothers, Majeed Langove Senior and Majeed Langove Junior, who carried out suicide attacks in August 1974 and March 2010, respectively. Majeed Senior tried to assassinate then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto when he was on an official visit to Quetta. He wanted to the Prime Minister for his dismissal of the National Awami Party’s government in Balochistan, but Majeed Senior lost his life during the operation. Majeed Junior ‘sacrificed’ himself to save his associates when SFs raided the house where they were staying in Quetta’s Wahdat Colony. Majeed Junior held back the SF raiders to give his associates time to escape. Following Majeed Junior’s death, a BLA leader, Aslam Achu, established the insurgent group’s suicide squad, and named it the Majeed Brigade, currently led by Hammal Rehan Baloch. The Brigade carried out its first vehicle-borne suicide attack on December 30, 2011, when Baaz Khan Marri targeted tribal elder Shafiq Mengal, son of former acting Chief Minister and Federal Minister Naseer Mengal, on the Arbab Karam Khan Road in Quetta. Shafeeq, who had run a ‘death squad’ targeting Baloch insurgents in different parts of the province, escaped unhurt, but 14 persons, including women and children, were killed, and 35 others were injuries.

Subsequently, the Majeed Brigade went into dormancy due to lack of funds and recruits, and it took the group seven years to carry out its second suicide attack, when a bus carrying Chinese engineers was targeted in Dalbadin in August 11, 2018. Aslam Achu’s 22-year-old son, Rehan Aslam Baloch, executed the attack. Majeed Brigade suicide bombers also hit the Chinese Consulate in Karachi (November 23, 2018); Gwadar’s Pearl Continental Hotel (May 11, 2019); and the Pakistan Stock Exchange (June 29, 2020).

Apart from Majeed Brigade, BLA has a formed STOS, which works directly under Bashir Zeb Baloch. and is tasked to monitor and eliminate Army officers and their local collaborators. Recently, on July 13, 2022, STOS abducted Lieutenant Colonel Laiq Baig Mirza along with his cousin Umer Javed, near the Warchoom area of Ziarat District. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed that Mirza was ‘arrested’ in an ‘intelligence-based operation’ for his direct involvement in the Baloch genocide, and grave human rights violations, including enforced disappearances of women and children, among other crimes. Mirza was later killed when an Army Quick Reaction Forces team tried to rescue him. Two days later, his cousin Umer Javed’s body was recovered.

One of the longest surviving Baloch insurgent groups, BLA has increased its operations against SFs and ‘state agents’. The outfit is likely to intensify its operations in days to come, justifying the escalation on the grounds that the Pakistani state has failed to meet the genuine demands of the Baloch people.   


INDIA

 

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Chhattisgarh: Kanker - Resurgent Vulnerabilities
Deepak Kumar Nayak

Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 20, 2022, Security Forces (SFs) recovered a powerful Improvised Explosive Device (IED), allegedly planted by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), near the Tekapar village under Koyalibeda Police Station limits in Kanker District.

On October 17, 2022, CPI-Maoist cadres set four vehicles on fire at an iron ore mine in Kanker District, and then fled into the nearby forest.

On October 7, 2022, a Border Security Force (BSF) trooper was injured when an IED planted by CPI-Maoist cadres exploded near the Markanar village on the Koyalibeda-Panidobir Road under Koyalibeda Police Station limits in Kanker District. Another two IEDs were later recovered from the area.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 18 Maoist-linked incidents of violence have been recorded in Kanker District since the beginning of 2022 (data till October 21). During the corresponding period in 2021, seven such incidents were recorded, while another two were recorded in the remaining period of 2021, taking the total to nine. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence across the country, a total of 453 LWE-linked incidents of violence have been recorded in Kanker.

Meanwhile, according to SATP, at least three civilians have been killed in Kanker District since the beginning of 2022 (data till October 21). During the corresponding period of 2021, no civilian fatality was recorded, while one such fatality was recorded in the remaining period of 2021. At peak, a total of 14 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2009, while a low of one fatality was recorded in the District in 2021, 2013, and 2003. The first civilian fatality on the SATP database was reported on April 30, 2003, when the Naxalites [Left-Wing Extremists] of the erstwhile People’s War Group (PWG) killed a civilian in the District, branding him a ‘police informer’. Since then, Kanker has recorded a total of 83 civilian fatalities (data till October 21, 2022).

Meanwhile, one trooper has lost his life fighting the Maoists in the current year, so far (data till October 21, 2022), as against two in the corresponding period in 2021. No further SF fatality was recorded in the remaining period of 2021. At peak, a total of 13 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2007, while a low of one fatality was recorded in the district in 2022, 2017, and 2006. The first SF fatality in the SATP record was reported on January 23, 2005, when a Policeman was killed and CPI-Maoist cadres also triggered multiple landmines blasts, during an ambush near the Panawar Forest in Kanker District. Since then, Kanker has recorded a total of 63 SF fatalities (data till October 21, 2022).

On the other hand, the SFs have killed at least 51 Maoists since March 6, 2000. A maximum of nine Maoist fatalities was recorded in 2012, while a low of one fatality (during the course of a single year) was recorded in 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2021. The last fatality in this category was reported on February 24, 2021. 

Disturbingly, the overall SF:Maoist kill ratio has favoured the Maoists at 1.23:1 in Kanker, since 2000. The ratio, however, was in favour of the SFs in 2006, at 1:4, 2008 at 1:1.16, 2012 at 1:2.25, 2016 at 1:2.33, and 2017 at 1:2. Moreover, in 2014 and 2020, the SFs eliminated two and four Maoists, respectively, without losing any of their own.

Significantly, search operations and combing raids have yielded the arrest of 472 Maoists in the District since 2000, though no arrest has been recorded in the current year (data till October 21, 2022). Mounting SF pressure has also led to the surrender of 103 Maoists since 2000, including three in 2022.

Other parameters of violence suggest a marginal increase in Maoist violence in the current year, with at least four incidents of arson in the current year (data till October 21, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2021, just one such incident was recorded, while another one was recorded in the remaining part of the year. The Maoists have triggered blast on three occasions in the current year. During the corresponding period last year, one such incident was recorded, while no further incident was recorded in the remaining part of 2021. A total of 38 such incidents have been recorded since 2000. SFs have recovered weapons on four occasions in the current year. During the corresponding period of 2021, one such incident was recorded, with no further incident in the remaining period of 2021. A total of 101 such incidents have been recorded since 2000.

According to an October 2, 2022, special ground report, Kanker District is a highly Maoist-sensitive area, where the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) troopers use motorcycles instead of four-wheel vehicles, as the kutcha (unmetalled) roads are heavily mined. Moreover, SFs on these motorcycles travel with a distance of 20 to 40 metres between each vehicle, in case of an unexpected attack, so that they have the reaction time to take charge in an adverse situation. The movement of forces is very difficult in the night as well as in the day, as the forest areas where combing operations are launched are heavily planted with explosives.

Kanker, one of the 27 districts of Chhattisgarh, is located in the southern region of the State. The district is spread over a geographical area of 5285.01 square kilometres, of which around 705.28 square kilometres (13.34 per cent of its total area) is under dense forest cover, and has immense geo-strategic significance for the Naxalites. The inhospitable terrain – dense forests interspersed with swift flowing rivers and streams and hilly features – are a significant challenge for the SFs in countering the hit-and–run tactics of the Naxalites. The district falls under the formidable Abujhmad Forest region (which spreads over 3,900 square kilometres), and the troubled ‘Bastar Division’, still considered the worst LWE-affected region in the country. The geographical proximity with the Maoist-afflicted Balod (Chhattisgarh) to the North; Rajnandgaon (Chhattisgarh) to the North-west; Dhamtari (Chhattisgarh) to the east; Bastar (Chhattisgarh) to the South-east; Narayanpur (Chhattisgarh) to the south; and Gadchiroli of Maharashtra in the West, makes it a significant strategic location for the extremists to carry on their vicious activities.

Not surprisingly, along with six other Districts of the State (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon and Sukma), Kanker finds place in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) list of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’  from eight States across India released on June 19, 2021. Moreover, Kanker, along with 13 other neighbouring/adjacent Districts of the State – Balrampur, Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Dhamtari, Gariyaband, Kondagaon, Mahasamund, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, Sukma, Kabirdham, and Mungeli – is also included among the 70 Naxal-affected Districts in 10 States across India, to be covered under the Centre’s ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which funds focused operations to combat the menace of Naxalism in the State.

On October 8, 2022, in a major development to bring the neglected District into the mainstream and provide employment opportunities, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel inaugurated the biggest millet processing unit at Nathiya Nawagaon in Kanker District.

Earlier, on August 30, 2022, in a positive initiative to keep youth away from LWE, Superintendent of Police (SP) Shalabh Kumar Sinha, with the help of locals, handed out books to tribal youth and opened libraries in the region to improve educational opportunities in the Maoist-affected villages of Kanker District. The aim was to connect with and support youth in these Maoist-affected areas, instead of their falling into the fold of Naxalism. Two libraries are already functional - in Tadoki village and in Koylibeda – both in Antagarh Tehsil (revenue unit). “Three more libraries will be functional by next month,” the SP added.

To contain the Maoists in the Bastar Division, including Kanker District,and areas surrounding it, 38 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) battalions (each yielding around 400 personnel on the ground) are presently deployed. The ‘Bastar Division’ encompasses the seven Districts – Bastar, Kanker, Kondagaon, Bijapur, Narayanpur, Dantewada and Sukma.

As in other erstwhile areas of Maoist dominance, the Maoists have undoubtedly lost ground in Kanker. Nevertheless, the rebels continue to exploit every window of opportunity to stage a comeback. Consistent and long-lasting efforts by the SFs as well as the civil administration are necessary to cement the gains of the past, and to end the extremist threat once and for all.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
October 17-23, 2022

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

2
0
11
50
63

INDIA

 

Chhattisgarh

2
0
0
0
2

Jammu and Kashmir

2
0
1
0
3

Odisha

1
0
0
0
1

India (Total)

5
0
1
0
6

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
12
0
0
13

KP

0
1
5
0
6

PAKISTAN (Total)

1
13
5
0
19

Total (South Asia)

8
13
17
50
88
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

Taliban issues 3,000 passports to terrorists, says Tajikistan's Interior Minister Ramazon Rahimov: Tajikistan Minister of Interior, Ramazon Rahimov while addressing the International and Regional Border Security and Management Cooperation to Counter Terrorism and Prevent the Movement of Terrorists conference, said that the Taliban has issued Afghan passports to more than 3,000 members of "terrorist groups". Rahimov added that the current situation in Afghanistan confirms the dangers posed by the Taliban regime. Afintl, October 20, 2022.

INDIA

264 policemen martyred in a year, highest from Jammu and Kashmir: A total of 264 Police personnel were killed during the past year, from September 1, 2021, to August 31, 2022. 37 of them were killed in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Daily Excelsior, October 21, 2022.

Assam Government extends the provisions of the AFSPA by categorizing nine Districts and one sub-division as "disturbed": State Government extended the provisions of the Armed Forces Special Forces Act (AFSPA) by categorizing nine Districts ad one sub-division as "disturbed". The order, dated October 15 was released on October 20. The districts are Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, Charaideo, Sivasagar, Jorhat, Golaghat, Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao, besides Lakhipur sub-division of Cachar. However, the AFSPA was withdrawn from West Karbi Anglong district in view of the "improved" situation there. Hindustan Times, October 21, 2022.

NNPGs and NSCN-IM agree to form the Council of Naga Relationships and Cooperation: On October 17 and 18, 2022, the Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) met in Kolkata, West Bengal, under the initiative of the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR) and agreed to form the Council of Naga Relationships and Cooperation. The council led by the 'convenor' of NNPGs and 'chairman' of the NSCN-IM was formed to explore, at the earliest, realistic ways for Nagas to move forward based on Naga historical and political rights, a joint statement said. East Mojo, October  20, 2022.

PAKISTAN

FATF announces removal of Pakistan from its 'grey list': The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on October 21 announced the removal of Pakistan from its 'grey list', appreciating the country's efforts in anti-money-laundering and anti-terror financing. This decision was taken during the FATF Plenary meeting held in Paris, France on October 20-21, 2022. The FATF has decided by consensus that Pakistan has completed all substantial, technical and procedural requirements of both the 2018 and 2021 Action Plans. As a result, Pakistan has been taken off the list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, with immediate effect." Ary News, October 20, 2021.

Terror attacks in Pakistan surge by 51 per cent after Afghan Taliban victory, reveals PIPS report: According to Pak Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) data, Pakistan witnessed a record 51 per cent increase in the number of terrorist attacks in a single year after the Afghan Taliban came to power in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021 as a result of the withdrawal of the United States (US) forces. As many as 433 people were killed and 719 injured in 250 attacks in Pakistan between August 15, 2021, and August 14, 2022, reveals PIPS' Paper Series released on October 19. Dawn, October 20, 2021.

SRI LANKA

Sri Lankan parliament passes 22nd Amendment to the Constitution: The Bill entitled "Twenty Second Amendment to the Constitution" was passed with amendments by the House with a two-third majority on October 21. During the division for the second reading of the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution Bill, 179 parliamentarians voted in favor of the bill and only one Member of Parliament (MP) voted against. Only ruling party Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Member of Parliament Sarath Weerasekera voted against it. A total of 45 Members of Parliament were absent. Colombo Page, October 20, 2022.

 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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