South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

Punjab: Threats Persists
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Two Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) personnel posted in the Punjab Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) were shot dead by a terrorist at a roadside hotel on the National Highway near Pirowal in Khanewal city (Khanewal District) on January 3, 2023. ISI Multan Region Director Naveed Sadiq and Inspector Nasir Abbas met a ‘source’ at a roadside hotel. After having tea, they walked to the parking lot when the ‘source’ himself, identified as Umar Khan of Kacha Khoo, pulled out his gun, shot the officers dead, and fled from the scene.

Meanwhile, on January 4, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the killings. “Yesterday, a secret squad of TTP killed ISI Deputy Director Multan Naveed Sadiq along with his colleague Inspector Nasir Butt at Bismillah Highway in Khanewal district of Punjab,” TTP ‘spokesman’ Mohammad Khorasani declared in a statement to the media. Interestingly, the attack was also claimed by the Al-Qaeda-linked Lashkar-i-Khorasan.

Though 2023 thus started on a violent note, the province recorded the lowest number of terrorism-related fatalities in 2022. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Punjab recorded a total of 11 terrorism-linked fatalities in 2022, including 10 civilians and one terrorist, as against 20 fatalities, including nine civilians, six terrorists and five Security Force (SF) personnel in 2021.

Though over-all fatalities declined by 45 per cent in 2022, as compared to 2021, fatalities in civilian the category increased, albeit by just one.

However, terrorism-linked incidents increased substantially in 2022. There were 83 terrorism-linked incidents in 2022 as against 31 in 2021. This is the highest number of such incidents since 2017, when there were 99 incidents. On the other hand, the number of major incidents of killing (each involving three or more fatalities) decreased from five to two, and the resultant fatalities from 15 to six.

On January 3, 2023, the Punjab CTD released the annual performance report for 2022, which recorded 1,225 intelligence-based operations conducted across the province, in which 246 terrorists were arrested. CTD Punjab's investigation wing registered 205 terrorism cases. CTD Punjab recovered 64.36 kilograms of explosives, 48 hand grenades, 253 detonators, seven batteries and 215 meters of prima cord, three sub-machine guns, 40 pistols, 324 bullets and 3 magazines from terrorists. The release added that in 2022, the operations wing of CTD Punjab added 105 suspicious persons and 354 madrasas to the Fourth Schedule list under the Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997.

Though the mainstream Islamic militant groups took a back seat, blasphemy cases continued to occur in the province, as radicalisation remained rampant. While two incidents of blasphemy were reported in 2021, resulting in one death, 2022 recorded three blasphemy related incidents resulting in three death. These incuded:

Religious minorities in Punjab have been under constant threat of abuse, abduction, rape and harassment by Islamist extremists, for long. The abduction of minority girls for rape and forced conversion continues unabated in the province. According to a report titled “Conversion without Consent” released by Voice for Justice and Jubilee Campaign on December 10, 2022, as many as 100 cases of abduction, forced conversion, forced and child marriage of girls and women belonging to the Christian community were recorded between January 2019 and October 2022 in Pakistan. The data showed that the highest number of cases recorded – 86 – were reported in Punjab, followed by 11 in Sindh, two in Islamabad and one in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. No case was reported in Balochistan. The data reveals that 67 per cent of the cases were reported from the five districts alone – Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Sheikhupura in Punjab, and Karachi in Sindh. Of the 100 cases, 27 were recorded in 2019, 12 in 2020, 42 in 2021 and 19 in 2022, till October.

Earlier, on August 13, 2022, former Prime Minister Imran Khan had admitted that forced conversions of young non-Muslim girls were carried out in the country. “There is an ayat (verse) in the Holy Quran [that] there is no coercion in Islam. This is Allah’s commandment. Whoever forcefully converts a non-Muslim is disobeying Allah,” he stated.

While terrorism has declined sharply in Punjab, widespread radicalisation persists, creating a base that can be exploited by terrorist formations when circumstances in their favour emerge. The killing of two ISI personnel at the very beginning of the year is a clear indication that terrorists have not given up their objectives, and the profile of the targets in this incident underlines the states vulnerabilities.

INDIA

Chhattisgarh: Disintegrating Heartland
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 1, 2023, the dead body of a youth, identified as Sanjay Tati (30), who was killed by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, was recovered in Bijapur District. The body was found along with a Maoist note written in the local Gondi language which read, “Red salute to the fallen comrades.” Tati, a resident of the Tarem Police Station area, was reportedly abducted by around 10 Maoists in the night of December 31, 2022.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Chhattisgarh recorded 72 fatalities, [30 civilians, 10 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 32 Maoists], in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence in 2022. In 2021, there was a total of 119 such fatalities, (29 civilians, 45 SF personnel, and 45 Maoists). Thus, a decline of 39.49 per cent was recorded in overall fatalities.

In the fight against the insurgents, SF domination in Chhattisgarh has been sharply reflected in the further improvement in the SF:Maoist kill ratio in 2022, 1:3.2 as against 1:1 registered in 2021. Of 23 years since 2000, the ratio has been in favour of SFs for 12 years, and has favoured the Maoists in eight, while the ration has been at par twice (2015 and 2021). No fatality was recorded in either category in 2000. The best ratio of 1:20 was achieved in 2004. The kill ratio has favoured the SFs since 2016, barring 2021, when it was at par.

In addition, at least 72 Maoists were arrested in the state in 2022, adding to 132 such arrests in 2021. At least 99 Maoists were arrested in 2020 and 134 in 2019. Mounting SF pressure also yielded the surrender of 182 Maoists in 2022, in addition to 328 such surrenders in 2021. There were 238 surrenders in 2020 and 231 in 2019.

The number of Districts from where killings were reported also decreased through 2022. Out of a total of 33 Districts in Chhattisgarh, fatalities were reported from nine in 2022: Bijapur (32), Dantewada (14), Sukma (11), Kanker (seven), Narayanpur (four), Bastar, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur and Rajnandgaon (one each). 10 Districts recorded such fatalities in 2021 – Sukma (46), Dantewada (23), Narayanpur (20), Bijapur (15), Kanker, and Rajnandgaon (four each), Kondagaon (three), Bastar (two), Dhamtari and Gariabandh (one each).

Other parameters of violence also indicate that the Maoists operational capabilities are waning considerably in Chhattisgarh. The Maoists could not carry out any major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) in 2022, while three such incidents were recorded in 2021 in which 30 persons (three civilians and 27 SF personnel) were killed. The Maoists orchestrated at least 16 incidents of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blasts in which one trooper was killed in 2022, as against 17 such incidents, in which two civilians, 10 SF personnel and two Maoists were killed in 2021. Eight incidents of abduction, in which nine civilians and one trooper were abducted (six civilians were killed while the others were released after ‘warnings’; the one SF trooper was killed), were reported in 2022, as against 11 such incidents, in which 24 civilians and two SF personnel were abducted in 2021 (six civilians were killed while others were released; the two SF personnel were killed). A total of 37 incidents of exchange of fire between the SFs and Maoists were reported in 2022, 39 such incidents occurred in 2021.

According to the SATP database, on an analysis of the underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists in 2022, three Districts (Bijapur, Dantewada, and Sukma) were categorised as highly-affected; six (Bastar, Kanker, Narayanpur, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur, and Rajnandgaon) were moderately affected; while four (Gariabandh, Kabirdham, Dhamtari, and Jashpur), were marginally affected. In 2021 – four Districts (Sukma, Dantewada, Narayanpur, and Bijapur) were categorised as highly-affected; six (Kanker, Rajnandgaon, Kondagaon, Bastar, Dhamtari, and Gariabandh) were moderately affected; and two (Balrampur-Ramanujganj, and Surguja) were marginally affected.

Nevertheless, concerns persist. Though there was decline in overall fatalities, as well as in the SF and terrorist categories in 2022, as compared to 2021, fatalities in the civilian category, a prime indicator of security in a conflict region, registered a marginal increase of 3.44 per cent. Emphasizing this on November 6, 2022, Sundarraj P, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, observed that the Maoists were turning on soft targets to register their presence and added:

Moreover, despite the fall in overall fatalities, Chhattisgarh upheld its top spot in terms of overall LWE-linked fatalities recorded in nine states across India in 2022, with Jharkhand at the second spot with 21 fatalities. The countrywide tally in 2022 stood at 136. Strikingly, Chhattisgarh has topped the list since 2014. In 2013, Jharkhand recorded the highest fatalities, a total of 130, as against 125 in Chhattisgarh, which was at the second spot in that year.

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) currently includes seven Districts in Chhattisgarh (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, and Sukma), in its list, issued on June 19, 2021, of the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from eight States across India. Additionally, three Districts (Kabirdham, Kondagaon, and Mungeli), are classified as ‘Districts of Concern’ among eight Districts from six States across India. Another 14 Districts (Balarampur, Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Dhamtari, Gariabandh, Kanker, Kondagaon, Mahasamund, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, Sukma, Kabirdham, and Mungeli), are included among the 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across India, covered under the Centre’s Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, which funds focused operations against the extremists.

Maoist activities in the ‘Bastar Division’, which comprises seven Districts (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma), are the most significant remaining challenge for Chhattisgarh in particular and the country at large, in terms of Left Wing Extremism (LWE). According to the SATP database, in 2022, the Bastar Division accounted for 95.83 per cent of total LWE- linked killings reported in the State, as against 94.95 per cent in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting LWE violence across the country, the Bastar Division has accounted for 90.98 per cent of all fatalities in the State – 3,219 out of a total of 3,538. Markedly, the Division has accounted for 29.02 per cent of total of 11,091 fatalities recorded across India since 2000.

Interestingly, according to a July 15, 2022, report, the Chhattisgarh Government claimed that nearly 600,000 people of 589 villages of the Bastar Division had been completely freed from the influence of the Maoists. A total of 118 villages in Dantewada District, 115 villages in Bijapur District, 121 villages in Sukma District, 92 villages in Kanker District, 63 villages in Bastar District, 48 villages in Narayanpur District and 32 villages in Kondagaon District, had been extricated from Maoist control.

Meanwhile, speaking about the anti-LWE campaign through 2022 on December 23, 2022, State Director General of Police (DGP), Ashok Juneja, disclosed that 60 weapons and 120 IEDs were seized during the campaign through the year. 18 new security camps were set up in the remote LWE-affected areas, which were providing security for various infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges and culverts. The new camps had been set up at Nambi, Etepal, Pusnar in Bijapur District; Potakpalli, Dabbakonta, Elmagunda, Pedmel, Kunded in Sukma District; Chandameta and Kantabaans in Bastar District; Hiroli, Kamalur in Dantewada District; Kuenmari, Kudur in Kondagaon District; Dhodhribeda in Narayanpur District, and Padhargaon, Arra and Chilparas in Kanker District. Further, to promote  the surrenders policy in the State, the surrendered Maoists were being provided economic aid and other facilities under the rehabilitation scheme of the Chhattisgarh Government.

On December 11, 2022, the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, asked security agencies to chalk out a plan for an all-out offensive against the CPI-Maoist in Chhattisgarh’s Abujhmad forests, that spread over 3,900 square kilometres in south Chhattisgarh.

According to reports, security agencies had been asked to take the help of the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), which helps operate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), to procure real-time images of Maoist strongholds inside these forests. The UAVs would be used for reconnaissance, and will take real-time pictures of the area, to support offensives against the Maoists, who still exercise significant control over the area and have built several camps where they provide arms training to recruits. The UAVs would also provide visual support to SFs conducting operations and area-domination exercises in rebel strongholds.

Unfortunately, Chhattisgarh continues to suffer significant shortfalls in the strength and quality of the State Police Force, which constitutes the first line of defence against any kind of internal challenge. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, there was a vacancy of 16.41 per cent in the State Police Force (sanctioned 75,861; actual 63,405), as on January 1, 2021. In this critically Maoist-afflicted State, the Police/Area Ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometers) is 46.90, as against the sanctioned strength of 56.11. The all-India Police/area ratio stands at 62.96, as against a sanction of 80.07. Moreover, of a sanctioned strength of 142 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 25 posts, i.e., 17.60 per cent remained vacant, considerably weakening executive direction of the Force. As against a sanctioned strength of 467 Police Stations, there were 456 Police Stations in the State and, appallingly, at least 28 of these had no telephones.  

Maoist reverses are visible in their last heartland. The advantage of monitoring and procuring real-time images of Maoist strongholds will boost the operational efficacy of the SFs, even as the Maoists currently lie low, with waning influence in the State. The opportunities for SFs to further consolidate their gains and eliminate Maoist influence in the region, are now great.