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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 21, No. 29, January 9, 2023
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.


ASSESSMENT

  • PAKISTAN: Punjab: Threats Persists - Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
  • INDIA: Chhattisgarh: Disintegrating Heartland - Deepak Kumar Nayak

 


PAKISTAN

 

    Print

 

Punjab: Threats Persists
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Two Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) personnel posted in the Punjab Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) were shot dead by a terrorist at a roadside hotel on the National Highway near Pirowal in Khanewal city (Khanewal District) on January 3, 2023. ISI Multan Region Director Naveed Sadiq and Inspector Nasir Abbas met a ‘source’ at a roadside hotel. After having tea, they walked to the parking lot when the ‘source’ himself, identified as Umar Khan of Kacha Khoo, pulled out his gun, shot the officers dead, and fled from the scene.

Meanwhile, on January 4, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the killings. “Yesterday, a secret squad of TTP killed ISI Deputy Director Multan Naveed Sadiq along with his colleague Inspector Nasir Butt at Bismillah Highway in Khanewal district of Punjab,” TTP ‘spokesman’ Mohammad Khorasani declared in a statement to the media. Interestingly, the attack was also claimed by the Al-Qaeda-linked Lashkar-i-Khorasan.

Though 2023 thus started on a violent note, the province recorded the lowest number of terrorism-related fatalities in 2022. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Punjab recorded a total of 11 terrorism-linked fatalities in 2022, including 10 civilians and one terrorist, as against 20 fatalities, including nine civilians, six terrorists and five Security Force (SF) personnel in 2021.

Fatalities in Punjab: 2000*-2023

Years

Civilians

SFs

Militants

Not Specified

Total

2000

36

4

3

0

43

2001

51

4

3

6

64

2002

36

4

33

14

87

2003

20

0

3

0

23

2004

92

2

9

2

105

2005

12

0

0

6

18

2006

7

0

2

0

9

2007

76

19

14

30

139

2008

152

33

11

15

211

2009

267

69

40

16

392

2010

296

17

15

0

328

2011

107

17

6

0

130

2012

58

28

23

0

111

2013

61

5

6

0

72

2014

89

16

31

0

138

2015

90

7

74

2

173

2016

83

21

151

0

255

2017

33

31

104

0

168

2018

16

6

14

0

36

2019

12

9

7

0

28

2020

3

0

13

0

16

2021

9

5

6

0

20

2022

10

0

1

0

11

2023

0

2

0

0

2

Total**

1616

299

569

95

2597
Source: SATP, *March 6, 2000, **Data till January 8, 2023

Though over-all fatalities declined by 45 per cent in 2022, as compared to 2021, fatalities in civilian the category increased, albeit by just one.

However, terrorism-linked incidents increased substantially in 2022. There were 83 terrorism-linked incidents in 2022 as against 31 in 2021. This is the highest number of such incidents since 2017, when there were 99 incidents. On the other hand, the number of major incidents of killing (each involving three or more fatalities) decreased from five to two, and the resultant fatalities from 15 to six.

On January 3, 2023, the Punjab CTD released the annual performance report for 2022, which recorded 1,225 intelligence-based operations conducted across the province, in which 246 terrorists were arrested. CTD Punjab's investigation wing registered 205 terrorism cases. CTD Punjab recovered 64.36 kilograms of explosives, 48 hand grenades, 253 detonators, seven batteries and 215 meters of prima cord, three sub-machine guns, 40 pistols, 324 bullets and 3 magazines from terrorists. The release added that in 2022, the operations wing of CTD Punjab added 105 suspicious persons and 354 madrasas to the Fourth Schedule list under the Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997.

Though the mainstream Islamic militant groups took a back seat, blasphemy cases continued to occur in the province, as radicalisation remained rampant. While two incidents of blasphemy were reported in 2021, resulting in one death, 2022 recorded three blasphemy related incidents resulting in three death. These incuded:

  • August 12, 2022: A man belonging to the Ahmadiyya community was stabbed to death by an unidentified man in a suspected blasphemy attack in the Chenab Nagar area of Chiniot District in Punjab.
  • May 17: One Ahmadiyya, identified as Abdul Salam (33), was killed by a seminary student in a blasphemy attack in Chochak area of Okara in Punjab. Abdul Salam was on his way back home from the field when a seminary student, Hafiz Ali Raza alias Mulazim Husain, attacked him with a knife. Salam's uncle Iqbal said Raza is believed to be a member of Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP).
  • February 12: A mob tortured and killed a man they accused of burning pages of the Holy Quran in Jungle Dera village under the Mian Chunnu Police Station of Khanewal District in Punjab. The local Police, in order to protect themselves, allegedly allowed the accused to leave the Police station in Mian Chunnu, where a mob had gathered. The victim was dragged to a nearby place, tortured and killed.

Religious minorities in Punjab have been under constant threat of abuse, abduction, rape and harassment by Islamist extremists, for long. The abduction of minority girls for rape and forced conversion continues unabated in the province. According to a report titled “Conversion without Consent” released by Voice for Justice and Jubilee Campaign on December 10, 2022, as many as 100 cases of abduction, forced conversion, forced and child marriage of girls and women belonging to the Christian community were recorded between January 2019 and October 2022 in Pakistan. The data showed that the highest number of cases recorded – 86 – were reported in Punjab, followed by 11 in Sindh, two in Islamabad and one in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. No case was reported in Balochistan. The data reveals that 67 per cent of the cases were reported from the five districts alone – Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Sheikhupura in Punjab, and Karachi in Sindh. Of the 100 cases, 27 were recorded in 2019, 12 in 2020, 42 in 2021 and 19 in 2022, till October.

Earlier, on August 13, 2022, former Prime Minister Imran Khan had admitted that forced conversions of young non-Muslim girls were carried out in the country. “There is an ayat (verse) in the Holy Quran [that] there is no coercion in Islam. This is Allah’s commandment. Whoever forcefully converts a non-Muslim is disobeying Allah,” he stated.

While terrorism has declined sharply in Punjab, widespread radicalisation persists, creating a base that can be exploited by terrorist formations when circumstances in their favour emerge. The killing of two ISI personnel at the very beginning of the year is a clear indication that terrorists have not given up their objectives, and the profile of the targets in this incident underlines the states vulnerabilities.

 


INDIA

 

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Chhattisgarh: Disintegrating Heartland
Deepak Kumar Nayak

Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 1, 2023, the dead body of a youth, identified as Sanjay Tati (30), who was killed by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, was recovered in Bijapur District. The body was found along with a Maoist note written in the local Gondi language which read, “Red salute to the fallen comrades.” Tati, a resident of the Tarem Police Station area, was reportedly abducted by around 10 Maoists in the night of December 31, 2022.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Chhattisgarh recorded 72 fatalities, [30 civilians, 10 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 32 Maoists], in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence in 2022. In 2021, there was a total of 119 such fatalities, (29 civilians, 45 SF personnel, and 45 Maoists). Thus, a decline of 39.49 per cent was recorded in overall fatalities.

In the fight against the insurgents, SF domination in Chhattisgarh has been sharply reflected in the further improvement in the SF:Maoist kill ratio in 2022, 1:3.2 as against 1:1 registered in 2021. Of 23 years since 2000, the ratio has been in favour of SFs for 12 years, and has favoured the Maoists in eight, while the ration has been at par twice (2015 and 2021). No fatality was recorded in either category in 2000. The best ratio of 1:20 was achieved in 2004. The kill ratio has favoured the SFs since 2016, barring 2021, when it was at par.

In addition, at least 72 Maoists were arrested in the state in 2022, adding to 132 such arrests in 2021. At least 99 Maoists were arrested in 2020 and 134 in 2019. Mounting SF pressure also yielded the surrender of 182 Maoists in 2022, in addition to 328 such surrenders in 2021. There were 238 surrenders in 2020 and 231 in 2019.

The number of Districts from where killings were reported also decreased through 2022. Out of a total of 33 Districts in Chhattisgarh, fatalities were reported from nine in 2022: Bijapur (32), Dantewada (14), Sukma (11), Kanker (seven), Narayanpur (four), Bastar, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur and Rajnandgaon (one each). 10 Districts recorded such fatalities in 2021 – Sukma (46), Dantewada (23), Narayanpur (20), Bijapur (15), Kanker, and Rajnandgaon (four each), Kondagaon (three), Bastar (two), Dhamtari and Gariabandh (one each).

Other parameters of violence also indicate that the Maoists operational capabilities are waning considerably in Chhattisgarh. The Maoists could not carry out any major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) in 2022, while three such incidents were recorded in 2021 in which 30 persons (three civilians and 27 SF personnel) were killed. The Maoists orchestrated at least 16 incidents of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blasts in which one trooper was killed in 2022, as against 17 such incidents, in which two civilians, 10 SF personnel and two Maoists were killed in 2021. Eight incidents of abduction, in which nine civilians and one trooper were abducted (six civilians were killed while the others were released after ‘warnings’; the one SF trooper was killed), were reported in 2022, as against 11 such incidents, in which 24 civilians and two SF personnel were abducted in 2021 (six civilians were killed while others were released; the two SF personnel were killed). A total of 37 incidents of exchange of fire between the SFs and Maoists were reported in 2022, 39 such incidents occurred in 2021.

According to the SATP database, on an analysis of the underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists in 2022, three Districts (Bijapur, Dantewada, and Sukma) were categorised as highly-affected; six (Bastar, Kanker, Narayanpur, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur, and Rajnandgaon) were moderately affected; while four (Gariabandh, Kabirdham, Dhamtari, and Jashpur), were marginally affected. In 2021 – four Districts (Sukma, Dantewada, Narayanpur, and Bijapur) were categorised as highly-affected; six (Kanker, Rajnandgaon, Kondagaon, Bastar, Dhamtari, and Gariabandh) were moderately affected; and two (Balrampur-Ramanujganj, and Surguja) were marginally affected.

Nevertheless, concerns persist. Though there was decline in overall fatalities, as well as in the SF and terrorist categories in 2022, as compared to 2021, fatalities in the civilian category, a prime indicator of security in a conflict region, registered a marginal increase of 3.44 per cent. Emphasizing this on November 6, 2022, Sundarraj P, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, observed that the Maoists were turning on soft targets to register their presence and added:

In Bastar Range, though civilian killings have reduced to a great extent from 279 in the year 2006 to 29 in 2022, it is still an area of major concern in left-wing extremist affected areas. The Maoists are grossly mistaken that such killings would deter other villagers who have realised the malicious face and hollow ideology of the banned organisation.

Moreover, despite the fall in overall fatalities, Chhattisgarh upheld its top spot in terms of overall LWE-linked fatalities recorded in nine states across India in 2022, with Jharkhand at the second spot with 21 fatalities. The countrywide tally in 2022 stood at 136. Strikingly, Chhattisgarh has topped the list since 2014. In 2013, Jharkhand recorded the highest fatalities, a total of 130, as against 125 in Chhattisgarh, which was at the second spot in that year.

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) currently includes seven Districts in Chhattisgarh (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, and Sukma), in its list, issued on June 19, 2021, of the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from eight States across India. Additionally, three Districts (Kabirdham, Kondagaon, and Mungeli), are classified as ‘Districts of Concern’ among eight Districts from six States across India. Another 14 Districts (Balarampur, Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Dhamtari, Gariabandh, Kanker, Kondagaon, Mahasamund, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, Sukma, Kabirdham, and Mungeli), are included among the 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across India, covered under the Centre’s Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, which funds focused operations against the extremists.

Maoist activities in the ‘Bastar Division’, which comprises seven Districts (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma), are the most significant remaining challenge for Chhattisgarh in particular and the country at large, in terms of Left Wing Extremism (LWE). According to the SATP database, in 2022, the Bastar Division accounted for 95.83 per cent of total LWE- linked killings reported in the State, as against 94.95 per cent in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting LWE violence across the country, the Bastar Division has accounted for 90.98 per cent of all fatalities in the State – 3,219 out of a total of 3,538. Markedly, the Division has accounted for 29.02 per cent of total of 11,091 fatalities recorded across India since 2000.

Interestingly, according to a July 15, 2022, report, the Chhattisgarh Government claimed that nearly 600,000 people of 589 villages of the Bastar Division had been completely freed from the influence of the Maoists. A total of 118 villages in Dantewada District, 115 villages in Bijapur District, 121 villages in Sukma District, 92 villages in Kanker District, 63 villages in Bastar District, 48 villages in Narayanpur District and 32 villages in Kondagaon District, had been extricated from Maoist control.

Meanwhile, speaking about the anti-LWE campaign through 2022 on December 23, 2022, State Director General of Police (DGP), Ashok Juneja, disclosed that 60 weapons and 120 IEDs were seized during the campaign through the year. 18 new security camps were set up in the remote LWE-affected areas, which were providing security for various infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges and culverts. The new camps had been set up at Nambi, Etepal, Pusnar in Bijapur District; Potakpalli, Dabbakonta, Elmagunda, Pedmel, Kunded in Sukma District; Chandameta and Kantabaans in Bastar District; Hiroli, Kamalur in Dantewada District; Kuenmari, Kudur in Kondagaon District; Dhodhribeda in Narayanpur District, and Padhargaon, Arra and Chilparas in Kanker District. Further, to promote  the surrenders policy in the State, the surrendered Maoists were being provided economic aid and other facilities under the rehabilitation scheme of the Chhattisgarh Government.

On December 11, 2022, the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, asked security agencies to chalk out a plan for an all-out offensive against the CPI-Maoist in Chhattisgarh’s Abujhmad forests, that spread over 3,900 square kilometres in south Chhattisgarh.

According to reports, security agencies had been asked to take the help of the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), which helps operate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), to procure real-time images of Maoist strongholds inside these forests. The UAVs would be used for reconnaissance, and will take real-time pictures of the area, to support offensives against the Maoists, who still exercise significant control over the area and have built several camps where they provide arms training to recruits. The UAVs would also provide visual support to SFs conducting operations and area-domination exercises in rebel strongholds.

Unfortunately, Chhattisgarh continues to suffer significant shortfalls in the strength and quality of the State Police Force, which constitutes the first line of defence against any kind of internal challenge. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, there was a vacancy of 16.41 per cent in the State Police Force (sanctioned 75,861; actual 63,405), as on January 1, 2021. In this critically Maoist-afflicted State, the Police/Area Ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometers) is 46.90, as against the sanctioned strength of 56.11. The all-India Police/area ratio stands at 62.96, as against a sanction of 80.07. Moreover, of a sanctioned strength of 142 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 25 posts, i.e., 17.60 per cent remained vacant, considerably weakening executive direction of the Force. As against a sanctioned strength of 467 Police Stations, there were 456 Police Stations in the State and, appallingly, at least 28 of these had no telephones.  

Maoist reverses are visible in their last heartland. The advantage of monitoring and procuring real-time images of Maoist strongholds will boost the operational efficacy of the SFs, even as the Maoists currently lie low, with waning influence in the State. The opportunities for SFs to further consolidate their gains and eliminate Maoist influence in the region, are now great.

 

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
January 2-8, 2023

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

2
0
15
5
22

INDIA

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
0
0
1

Chhattisgarh

1
0
0
0
1

Jammu and Kashmir

3
0
2
0
5

Manipur

0
0
2
0
2

Punjab

00
0
0
1
1

Tripura

1
0
0
0
1

India (Total)

6
0
4
1
11

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
4
0
0
4

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

0
1
17
0
18

Punjab

0
2
0
0
2

PAKISTAN (Total)

0
7
17
0
24

Total (South Asia)

8
7
36
6
57
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

Pakistan force launches air strike on TTP in Nangarhar Province: On January 5, Pakistani forces launched an air strike on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) strongholds in Salala neighborhood in the vicinity of Gushta District of Nangarhar Province. Pakistan's National Security Council (NSC) decided three days ago that the country's forces should adopt a zero-tolerance policy against terrorists.Hasht-e Subh Daily, January 6, 2022.

Taliban rejects claim of 'trial in absentia' of publishers in exile: On January 3, Abdul Haq Hammad, the Taliban's head of publications of the Information and Culture Ministry in a series of threads on Twitter said that after receiving complaints related to the activities of some media outlets against national interests, he summoned media outlets' publishers to the Media Violations Commission to share his concerns in this regard" Hasht-e Subh Daily, January 5, 2022.

INDIA

TRF warns of terror attacks on people whose names it has released on 'hit list', says report: The Resistance Front (TRF), on January 6, warned of terror attacks on people whose names it has released on the 'hit list'. According to a Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) notification, TRF is recruiting youth through the online medium for the furtherance of terrorist activities, recruitment of terrorists, infiltration of terrorists and smuggling of weapons and narcotics from Pakistan into Jammu and Kashmir.

Meanwhile, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) through a notification on January 7, banned People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), an offshoot of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA). The notification stated that PAFF is a proxy outfit of Maulana Masood Azhar-led Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and it is involved in regularly issuing threats to security forces, political leaders and civilians working in Jammu and Kashmir from other states.India Today, January 8, 2023. India TV, January 7, 2023.

Zero tolerance for terrorism paid off in 2022, according to UMHA review: An official review of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) released on January 3 showed that in 2022, there was about 54 per cent reduction in terrorist incidents, 84 per cent in the deaths of Security Forces (SFs) and about 22 per cent in the recruitment of terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). It also reveals that J&K security situation received constant attention of the UMHA during 2022 and J&K's security grid was strengthened to ensure zero-fear of terrorists and separatists. The Statesman, January 4, 2023.

PAKISTAN

NSC decides not to have talks with terrorists or militant groups, says Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah: Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said on January 5, that the recently held meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) on January 2, had decided that there will be "no talks with any terrorist or militant group". Sanaullah was asked about the explicit threat issued by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) for "openly declaring war against the TTP to appease America". Dawn, January 6, 2023.

Government could renegotiate with TTP if it surrenders to Constitution, states Federal Minister of Interior Rana Sanaullah: Federal Minister of Interior, Rana Sanaullah said on January 4, that the Government could reengage in negotiations with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) if the militant outfit won't challenge the state's writ. "If the TTP decides to come under the ambit of the Constitution, then we can hold talks with them," Rana Sanaullah told a similar demand that the previous Government put forth before the TTP. Geo News, January 5, 2023.

1,225 IBOs conducted across Punjab, according to CTD 2022 performance report: The Punjab Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) on January 3, released the annual performance report of the year 2022 which reported 1,225 intelligence-based operations were conducted across the province, in which 244 suspects were arrested, 197 cases were registered and 782 recoveries were made. According to the CTD spokesman, in the year 2022, the operation wing of CTD Punjab added 105 suspicious persons and 354 madrasas to the Fourth Schedule list, apart from this. The News, January 4, 2023.

 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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