South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

Dangerous Concessions
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has declared an indefinite ceasefire. A TTP statement issued on June 2 reads,

Though the Government has not made any comments about the ceasefire declaration, on June 4, 2022, Pakistan's Information Minister, Maryam Aurangzeb disclosed,

Significantly, a ceasefire with the Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) group, a former constituent of the TTP that broke with the parent formation in July 2008 as it wanted to focus on the Afghan theatre, was agreed upon on October 1, 2021, and lasted till October 21, 2021. Similarly, a ceasefire with TTP, agreed upon on November 5, 2021, lasted till December 5, 2021. Subsequently, on April 30, 2022, TTP announced an 11-day ceasefire on account of Eid-ul-Fitr. This was further extended till May 30, 2022.

Though no further details about the talks are available, according to local journalists, TTP's major demands include:

On May 31, 2018, after receiving assent from the then President Mamnoon Hussain the 25th Constitutional Amendment came into force, resulting in the merger of FATA and the Provincially Administered Tribal Areas [i.e., the Districts of Chitral, Dir and Swat (including Kalam), the Tribal Area in Kohistan District, Malakand Protected Area, the Tribal Area adjoining Mansehra District, and the former State of Amb, into the existing Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

SNAR 2009 was passed on April 16, 2009. The regulation was meant to provide for Nifaz-e-Nizam-e-Sharia'h [Order of Islamic Justice] through Courts in the Provincially Administered Tribal Areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, except the Tribal Area adjoining Manshera District and the former State of Amb. After the 25th Constitutional Amendment, 2018, by which Article 247 was removed from the Constitution, SNAR 2009 ceased to exist.

Though the Government has not publicly revealed its stand on the issue of demerger, at the time of the merger it was argued that it was an effort to 'mainstream' governance in the tribal areas and to control lawlessness there. Notably, the 2016 FATA Reforms Committee, which recommended the FATA-KP merger, noted in the section named 'The Urgency for Reforms,'

The situation in the region still remains alarming and, consequently, it will not be easy for the government to justify its decision if it agrees for the demerger. Such a demerger, moreover, will be difficult, as it will require another Constitutional Amendment, which is not possible in the present political situation.

Though there has been no reaction on the issue of enforcement of the SNAR 2009 in the Malakand Division, reports indicate that government might have agreed to concede this demand.

In turn, the Pakistani state wants TTP to stop its attacks on Pakistani soil and to demobilize its fighters completely. However, these objectives are likely to be a challenge, if previous agreements with the terrorist outfits and their leaders are any indication. These include three written agreements – the Shakai Peace Agreement (with Nek Muhammad Wazir on April 2004), the Srarogha Peace Agreement (with Baitullah Mehsud in February 2005) and the Swat Agreement (with Maulana Fazlullah in May 2008). Also, undocumented/verbal agreements with ‘commander’ Hafiz Gul Bahadar (active in North Waziristan) in 2008, ‘commander’ Faqir Muhammad (active in Bajaur Agency) in 2009 and the Lashkar-i-Islam (active in Bara and Jamrud region in Khyber Agency) in 2009. Every one of these agreements proved short-lived and did not result in an enduring peace.

Significantly, back in 2012, Daud Khattak, senior editor with RFE/RL's Mashaal Radio, while writing for Combat Terrorism Centre under 'Reviewing Pakistan's Peace Deals with the Taliban,' concluded,

All the leaders mentioned above joined TTP when it was formed in December 2007.

Indeed, despite the ongoing ceasefires, TTP launched Operation 'Al-Badar' on April 2, 2022. In the 70 days since its launch (data till June 12, 2022), Pakistan has recorded 158 fatalities (35 civilians, 78 SF personnel and 45 terrorists).

Despite this discouraging experience, Islamabad is continuing with peace talks under Chinese pressure to buy peace with TTP. A June 7, 2022, report quoted an unnamed senior Pakistani politician from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) accepting that China was exerting pressure on Pakistan to find “peace” with TTP so that TTP’s “war on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” ends. He added, further, “For Pakistan, it is incredibly important to restore Chinese confidence in Pakistan – especially Pakistan’s ability to provide ample security to Chinese personnel.”

However, efforts to buy peace with TTP will not ensure peace in the country, asthe Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) group, which is influential in tribal areas, have already failed. Reports indicate that a senior ‘commander’ of the HGB group, visited Peshawar and Islamabad in August 2021 to meet senior Pakistani security officials, leading to the release of 20 of the group’s members by the government. Later, on October 1, 2021, the Shura Mujahideen of North Waziristan headed by HGB announced a ceasefire for 20 days. However, on October 22, 2021, HGB’s Shura, based in the Pasa Mela area of Spera in the Khost Province of Afghanistan, announced the termination of the ceasefire, claiming no headways in the talks. There was no response from the Government regarding the HGB group’s assertion. The majority of members of the group, closely linked to the Haqqani network, are presently based in Afghanistan’s Kunar Province.

Indeed, the HGB group, like TTP, regrouped after the return of the Afghan Taliban’s takeover in Kabul. The group has engaged in increased violence after the failure of the talks. According to the SATP database, HGB group-linked incidents had resulted in 30 fatalities (two civilians, 17 SF, and 11 terrorists) since October 21, 2021, (data till June 12, 2022). During the corresponding period preceding, there were no killings in HGB group-linked incidents.

Meanwhile, there is a risk that the resurgent HGB group may even attract dissatisfied cadres and leaders of TTP. Member of the National Assembly (MNA) from North Waziristan, Mohsin Dawar told Radio Free Asia, "If the TTP foot soldiers won't benefit from the impending deal, they are likely to switch over to Bahadur's group…"

There are also strong apprehensions that dissatisfied TTP cadres may move to the Islamic State-Pakistan Province (IS-PP) and Islamic State-Khorasan Province. IS-PP, in its Yalgar magazine released on December 5, 2021, warned TTP of not repeating the mistakes of the Afghan Taliban, as “democracy and monotheism can never stand together.” While IS-KP has its influence limited to Peshawar city and Bajaur District in KP, the IS-PP has its presence in the remaining areas.

The possible surrender of the Pakistani State to a radical terror movement based in the tribal areas once again will only embolden such groups and may have far-reaching consequences, including the probability of the further Talibanization of the country.

INDIA

Chhattisgarh: Bijapur: Violent Upsurge
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 4, 2022, the dead body of one person was recovered from the Modakpal Police Station limits in Bijapur District. In the evening of May 3, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres abducted two persons – Satyam Pulse and Bhima – from Guddipal village under the Usoor Block (administrative division) and later, after holding a 'Jan Adalat' (People's/Kangaroo Court organized by the Maoists), stabbed Satyam Pulse to death. Bhima, however, was released.

On April 10, 2022, Maoists killed a Policeman in broad daylight near the Mirtur Police Station of Bijapur District. The Policeman, identified as Gopal Kadti, on his way from home to the Police Station, was attacked in the market around 500 meters from the Police Station, with sharp-edged weapons.

On March 16, 2022, suspected CPI-Maoist cadres killed a Pastor, Yalam Shankar, in Angampalliguda village under Madder Police Station limits in Bijapur District. According to the Police, the Pastor was dragged out from his house and his throat was slit with a sharp edge weapon.

On March 11, 2022, a CPI-Maoist ‘commander’, Ritesh Punem, carrying a reward of INR 300,000 on his head, was killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) in a forest near Kaika and Mosla villages under Naimed Police Station limits in Bijapur District. A trooper of the District Reserve Guard (DRG) was also injured in the gunfight.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 16 Maoist-linked fatalities (seven civilians, three SF personnel, and six Maoists) have been registered in Bijapur District, thus far in 2022, (data till June 12). During the corresponding period in 2021, 10 fatalities (two civilians, five SF personnel, and three Maoists) were recorded, and in the remaining period of 2021, another five fatalities (four civilians, and one Maoist) occurred.

There is, thus, a surge of 60 per cent in fatalities in the district in 2022, as compared the first five months and 10 days of 2021. Civilian fatalities in particular have increased almost fourfold. Moreover, the fatalities in 2022, with over six months still left, have crossed the total fatalities recorded in 2021. Significantly, Bijapur had recorded its lowest fatalities in a year in 2022, since the formation of the district in 2007.   

While fatalities in Maoist-linked violence have witnessed an increase, other parameters of violence in the district also recorded a surge. Importantly, according to the SATP database, 13 incidents of killing have already been reported in the current year, as compared to 10 in the corresponding period of 2021, and another five in the remaining period of 2021. At least six exchanges of fire between SFs and Maoists have been reported in the district in the current year, as against three such encounters in the corresponding period of 2021, and another one in the remaining period of 2021. Further, there have been at least six incidents of explosion in the current year, as compared to four such incidents in the corresponding period of 2021, and another two in the remaining period of 2021.

Bijapur, one of the 27 districts of Chhattisgarh, was carved out of Dantewada as a separate District on May 11, 2007. The district is spread over a geographical area of 6,562.48 square kilometres, of which around 1,848.07 square kilometres (28 per cent of its total area) is under forest cover, and has immense geo-strategic significance for the Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists). The district falls under the formidable Abujhmad Forest region (which spreads over 3,900 square kilometres), and the troubled Bastar Division, a significant threat for the State, which is still considered the worst LWE-affected region in the country. The geographical proximity with the Maoist-afflicted Narayanpur (Chhattisgarh) to the North; Bastar (Chhattisgarh) to the North-east; Dantewada (Chhattisgarh) to the east; Sukma (Chhattisgarh) to the South-east; Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam of Telangana to the south; and Gadchiroli of Maharashtra in the West, makes it a significant strategic tri-junction for the rebels to carry on their violent activities.

Unsurprisingly, reflecting the severity of the Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] threat in the district, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had, on June 19, 2021, included Bijapur among its list of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from eight States across India. Moreover, Bijapur is also included among the 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across, to be covered under the Centre’s ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which funds focused operations against the LWEs.

According to a May 4, 2022, report, SFs in Chhattisgarh have a new threat to deal with - 'desi' (locally manufactured) Under Barrel Grenade Launchers (UBGLs). The Maoists are using these to attack several of the old and newly established Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) camps. The report quoted an unnamed CRPF officer involved in anti-Maoist operations, who noted,

The report quoted another officer as stating that these ‘desi’ UBGLs help the Maoists target forces from a safe distance.

There have been roughly half a dozen attacks where 150-200 ‘desi’ UBGL rounds were fired at the SFs over the past six months – mostly in the south Bastar region – Bijapur, Dantewada and Sukma. This coincides with the number of SFs’ camps increasing in Maoist-infested areas.

Meanwhile, according to an April 23, 2022, report, Maoists accused SFs of resorting to "aerial attack," targeting the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army [PLGA] and a "local tribe" in the Pamed area under the Usur Tehsil (revenue unit) of Bijapur District in the intervening night of April 14-15. Maoist 'spokesperson' Abhay claimed,

Interestingly, villagers of Metagudam and Botetom in Pamed, a hilly area, confirmed that they heard deafening explosions in the night, and collected some metal shards from the spot, which they said were parts of bombs dropped from drones.

The Police, however, denied the allegations and declared that they were just Maoist propaganda to malign the Police's image and to scare people. Bastar, Inspector General of Police (IGP) Sundarraj P., stated,

Meanwhile, on May 20, 2022, during his 'Bhaint Mulakat' (visit and meet) campaign Chief Minister (CM) Bhupesh Baghel observed that, with the development of roads, bridges and schools, LWE-affected Bastar Division (which includes Bijapur) was changing. Describing the picture of transformation, CM Baghel declared that development work on new bridges, culverts, and roads was going on, and schools which have been shut for the past 15 years had reopened:

Earlier, on February 12, 2022, acknowledging the SFs sacrifice and consolidation in the fight against the Maoists, CM Baghel declared, “our jawans [troopers] have been entering the den of Naxals” and “have pushed Maoists to a limited pocket (in Bastar).”

Meanwhile, according to a June 1, 2022, report, in order to augment the State’s capacities to counter the Maoists, the Centre has approved the UMHA proposal to relax the requisite minimum educational qualification from 10^th Class pass to 8^th Class, for the recruitment of 400 tribal youth as Constable (General Duty) in the CRPF from the Bijapur, Dantewada and Sukma districts. Earlier, during 2016-2017, CRPF had raised a ‘Bastariya Battalion,’ recruiting Scheduled Tribe candidates from four districts – Bijapur, Dantewada, Narayanpur and Sukma. However, the recruitment drive did not yield optimal results, as candidates from the interior areas could not compete in the process due because of their inability to fulfil the prescribed educational requirements.

Following severe losses across the country, the Maoists are trying to regroup. In their fight for survival, it is expected that they will focus more on their erstwhile strongholds. Consequently, districts like Bijapur will be under increased threat. Coherent and sustained efforts by SFs and other State agencies, including the civil government, will be necessary to contain the rebels’ efforts for revival.