South Asia Terrorism Portal
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Shroud of Terror Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 19, 2023, three Police constables were killed in a suicide attack at the Takhta Beg Police checkpost in Jamrud tehsil (revenue unit) of Khyber District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Police said terrorists armed with hand grenades, entered the premises and opened fire using a sub-machine gun. After the firing, a suicide bomber blew himself up. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack.
On January 18, 2023, a teenager, Raheedullah, was found beheaded in a remote area of Bargai village in Lakki Marwat District. The Ittehadul Mujahideen-i-Khurasan left a dagger and a hand written chit in Pashto near the body, with the message that Raheedullah was found guilty of spying for the Army and the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD).
On January 14, 2023, three Policemen, including Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), Badaber Sardar Hussain and his two Police guards, Irshad and Jehanzeb, were killed in a terrorist attack on the Sarband Police Station in Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. KP Inspector General of Police (IGP) Moazzam Jah Ansari said that sniper rifles were used by the terrorists in the incident, for the first time in Peshawar. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack. The CTD killed the two terrorists who were involved in the attack, Gul Hayyee and Hazrat Umar, residents of the Bara area of Khyber District and Mohmand Hal Yeka Tut in Peshawar, while two to three other terrorists managed to escape.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP has recorded 33 terrorism-related fatalities, including 23 terrorists, eight Security Force (SF) personnel and two civilians, so far, in the current year (data till January 22, 2023). During the corresponding period of 2022, the province had recorded 19 such fatalities including 11 terrorists, five SF personnel and three civilians.
KP recorded a total of 527 fatalities (119 civilians, 173 SF personnel and 235 terrorists) in 184 incidents of killing in 2022, as against 300 such fatalities (71 civilians, 108 SF personnel, and 121 terrorists) in 129 such incidents in 2021, registering an increase of 75.66 per cent in overall fatalities. Overall fatalities, on year-on-year basis, have been on a continuous rise since 2020, when fatalities stood at 216 (61 civilians, 57 SF personnel, and 98 terrorists) in comparison to 130 (30 civilians, 69 SF personnel, and 31 terrorists) in 2019.
Significantly, overall fatalities in 2022 are the highest in a year since 2014, when there were 697 fatalities. In terms of SF fatalities, the 2022 tally is the highest since 2013, when there were 181 fatalities. Terrorist fatalities in 2022 were the highest since 2011, when there were 372 such fatalities. The number of civilians killed in a year touched three digits after a gap of five years, with 122 civilians killed in 2016.
Other parameters of violence also indicated a worsening security situation in the province. Total terrorism-linked incidents jumped sharply from 168 in 2021 to 225 in 2022, the highest since 2015, when there were 278 incidents. The number of major incidents (each involving three or more killings) increased from 41 in 2021 to 56 in 2022, the highest since 2013, when there were 72 such incidents. The resultant fatalities in such attacks also increased from 186 in 2021 to 337 in 2022. Similarly, KP accounted for an increased number of explosions, from 32 in 2021 to 45 in 2022 (the highest since 2015, when there were 50 such incidents), and the resulting fatalities spiked from 52 to 129. The province recorded eight suicide attacks in 2022 (the highest since 2017, when there were also eight such attacks) as against two in 2021. In the worst attack, on March 4, at least 63 worshippers lost their lives and 194 others were injured when a suicide attacker detonated himself inside a Shia Mosque in the Koocha Risaldar area of Peshawar.
Of 38 Districts in KP, 16 recorded terrorism-related violence, according to the SATP database. The most violent District in 2022 was, again, North Waziristan District, which accounted for 177 deaths, followed by Peshawar (87 fatalities), Bannu (60 fatalities) and Dera Ismail Khan (43 fatalities). In 2021 as well, North Waziristan recorded the maximum of 106 killings, followed by South Waziristan (51 fatalities), Peshawar (25 fatalities) and Bajaur (22 fatalities). Of 38 Districts, 21 Districts registered terrorism-related incidents in 2021. 2020 saw terrorism-related incidents in 19 Districts, of which North Waziristan had the highest number of fatalities (110), followed by Peshawar (27) and South Waziristan (21).
In 2019, violence in KP had fallen to its second lowest level, in terms of fatalities, as terrorists had started to escape to Afghanistan due to continuous SF operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan. With the Taliban starting to strengthen their position in Afghanistan in 2020, the TTP terrorists who had escaped to Afghanistan started receiving increasing support inside Afghanistan, which helped them in their efforts to revive their campaigns in Pakistan. The process gained momentum with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021.
Though an attempt to start a direct dialogue between the TTP and the Pakistan Government was initiated soon after the Taliban seized Kabul, it finally succeeded in May 2022. After a fractious six months, it came to an end in November 2022. During this entire period, there was not a single phase of peace on the ground.
On the contrary, an October 12, 2022, report suggested that the TTP had re-emerged violently in the restive areas of Swat, as militants detained Police personnel and an Army officer after enforcement officials launched an operation to capture TTP militants. Earlier, an August 12, 2022, report noted that TTP militants had established a check-post at Balasoor Top, besides roaming about freely in other areas of the Matta tehsil of Swat. The areas included Bar Shor, Koz Shor, Namal, Gat Peuchar and among others. Significantly, the Geo News correspondent in Swat, Mehboob Ali, claimed that at least 200-250 TTP terrorists were present and operating in the area.
On December 23, 2022, after analysing the overall law and order situation in KP, the Police department declared South and North Waziristan, Lakki Marwat and Bannu Districts, terrorist ‘trouble spots’. Additional Inspector General of Police (ADGP), Operations, Mohammad Ali Babakhel declared, “Southern districts, including North and South Waziristan [from among the newly-merged tribal districts] as well as Lakki Marwat and Bannu districts [from settled areas], are trouble spots.”
Indeed, on December 27, 2022, Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah disclosed that there were around 7,000 to 10,000 TTP fighters in the region, and they were accompanied by 25,000 members of their families. He added that some of the terrorists, who had previously laid down arms, had secretly resumed activities, and alleged, “The biggest reason for this is the failure of [the] Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government and Counter Terrorism Department… It is their job to stop it.”
Meanwhile, a report presented to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during the national security review meeting in December 2022, warned that, because of an acute shortage of staff and resources, the KP CTD would not be able to prevent or stop terrorist attacks in the province, and lacked the capacity to fight terrorism.
Significantly, in a daring incident on December 18, 2022, a detained terrorist overpowered a constable at the CTD Complex in Bannu Cantonment (Bannu District) and, after snatching the constable's weapon, freed 34 other detained terrorists. As soon as they came out of the lockup, the terrorists took possession of more weapons and started firing. One CTD constable was killed, while another was injured, and died later. Meanwhile, SFs cordoned off the area and launched an operation. Immediately after the seizure of the complex by the terrorists on December 18, two terrorists were killed, three were arrested, and two security forces personnel were injured in the exchange of fire. Efforts to induce the terrorists to surrender unconditionally continued for the next two days. On December 20, the SFs took initiated an operation against the terrorists who refused to surrender. During the resulting and fierce exchange of fire between terrorists and security forces, 25 terrorists were killed. Three terrorists were arrested and the remaining seven surrendered. Three SF personnel were killed in the operation, while another 10, including two officers, were injured. The TTP claimed responsibility for the incident.
As ‘official’ talks between the TTP and the Government collapsed with the TTPs declaration of an end to the ceasefire on November 28, 2022, an escalation of violence within KP, and the possibilities of its fanning out into other areas of Pakistan, have increased dramatically. The risk of Pakistan’s tribal areas once again becoming the “most dangerous place on earth” is real.
Bihar: Dwindling rebellion Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 13, 2023, the Police arrested a woman Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre, Renuka Koda aka Renu Koda, carrying a reward of INR 50,000, in the Jamui District of Bihar. A resident of Saradhi village under the Ladaitand Police Station area of the district, Renu, used to provide food and water to the Maoists, and later joined their ‘Marak’ (killing) Squad.
On January 3, 2023, the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) arrested a CPI-Maoist cadre, Janaki Koda, during a search operation in the Lakhisarai District. Koda was accused of shooting and killing Chhotu Saav, the driver of Ganesh Rajak, the then head of the Bhalui Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution), on August 19, 2019.
So far in 2023, two Maoists have been arrested in the State (data till January 22). During the corresponding period of 2022, eight Naxalites were arrested. At least 52 Left Wing Extremists (LWEs) were arrested through 2022, in addition to 45 arrested in 2021, 34 in 2020 and 50 in 2019.
Further, three Maoists surrendered in 2022, in addition to one in 2021, four in 2020 and seven in 2019. No surrender has been reported in 2023, thus far (data till January 22).
Meanwhile, according to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Security Forces (SFs) killed four Maoists in the State in 2022, six in 2021, five in 2020 and seven in 2019. No Maoist fatality has been reported in 2023.
The last SF fatality in the state was reported on February 14, 2019, when a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Sub-Inspector, Raushan Kumar, was killed in a landmine blast triggered by CPI-Maoist cadres during a combing operation in the Langurahi Forests in Gaya District. Since then, SFs have killed 22 Maoists. These numbers clearly indicate that, over time, the SFs have established complete dominance over the Maoists in the state.
It is not surprising, consequently, that civilians are now more secure in terms of Maoist-linked activities. No fatality in this category was recorded in the state in 2022. This was the first time, since 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE in India, that there was a zero fatality in this category for an entire year. In fact, fatalities in this category have been declining since 2020, when they fell from 13 in 2019, to 10 in 2020, and further down to seven in 2021. A maximum of 46 civilians were killed in 2010.
Other parameters of violence also indicate that the Maoist influence is waning in Bihar. The Maoists failed to carry out a single major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) in 2022, while one such incidents was recorded in 2021, in which four civilians were killed. The Maoists orchestrated one blast in 2022, as against three such incidents in 2021. No incident of abduction was reported in 2022, as against one such incident, in which one civilian was abducted in the Lakhisarai district in 2021, for whose release an INR 10 million ransom was demanded. The victim was, however, released within 48 hours, after the Maoists failed to escape an immediate and intensive combing operation by the SFs. The Maoists executed one incident of arson in 2022, as against two such incidents in 2021.
Further, the number of Districts from where killings were reported also decreased in 2022. Out of a total of 38 Districts in Bihar, fatalities were reported from three in 2022 – Lakhisarai (two), Aurangabad and Jamui (one each). Four Districts recorded such fatalities in 2021 – Gaya (eight), Jamui and Lakhisarai (two each) and Munger (one).
Meanwhile, according to SATP data for 2022, based on assessments of underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists, three districts – Lakhisarai, Aurangabad and Jamui – remained moderately affected; while, four districts – Buxar, Gaya, Rohtas, Munger – were in the marginally affected category. In 2021, four districts – Gaya, Jamui, Lakhisarai and Munger – were moderately affected; while, seven districts – Aurangabad, Kaimur, Nawada, Patna, Rohtas, Sitamarhi and West Champaran – were marginally affected.
Moreover, a September 21, 2022, report, suggest that anti-insurgency operations by SFs had freed the 'Chakrabandha' Forest area scattered across the Gaya and Aurangabad districts of Bihar, from Maoist dominance, under the overall command of the paramilitary force. CRPF, Director General (DG) Kuldiep Singh disclosed that, while some Maoist elements were still present in the Forest in the form of extortion gangs, there was no place in the State where Maoists remained dominant:
Earlier, on April 25, 2022, the Bihar Police claimed to have choked the supply chain of medicines to CPI-Maoist during a sustained anti-Maoist crackdown, leading to a drastic reduction in their strength. An illegal arms factory, a major source of weapons for the Maoists, was also neutralized by the Special Task Force (STF) and Central Forces in Nawada. Sushil Mansingh Khopde, Additional Director General of Police (ADGP), Operations, Bihar, described this as a 'major success' and asserted that similar operations by the STF had helped bring down the number of Naxalites to no more than 80. He noted,
ADG, Khopde, however, noted that there were certain areas in the State where over ground workers (OGW) of the Maoists remained active, and in some cases provided logistics support to the ultras: ,
Also, according to the latest available government data, Gaya, Jamui, and Lakhisarai, were among the 25 ‘Most Affected Districts’ from eight States across India, identified by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA). Moreover, Aurangabad was also among eight districts from six States, classified as ‘Districts of Concern’. Further, Aurangabad, Banka, Gaya, Jamui, Kaimur, Lakhisarai, Munger, Nawada, Rohtas, and West Champaran, were covered under the ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which underwrites focused operations against the Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists), among 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across the country.
Nevertheless, despite losing their influence to a large extent, the Maoists continue to make efforts to remain relevant. For instance, on December 12, 2022, the Maoists pasted a pamphlet with “Lal Salaam” (Red Salute) written on it, on the house of a teacher identified as Dharmendra Kumar, in Dharampur village under Khaira Police Station limits in Jamui District, demanding a ‘levy’ (extortion money) of INR 1.1 million from him. The Maoists threatened to kill the teacher and his family for failure to pay.
Despite the consolidation of SF dominance across Bihar, according to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2021, the state continues to reel under critical deficits in the strength and quality of its Police Force, hobbling the fight against the insurgents. The State’s police-population ratio (policemen per hundred thousand populations) stands at an abysmal 67.85, the lowest in the country, and less than half the national average of 152.51. The police strength : area ratio for both the state and the national average, is far below the sanctioned ratio of 116.52 and 193.95, respectively. Further, there is a vacancy of 59,540 Police personnel (58.23 per cent) against the sanctioned strength of 1,42,551 in Bihar. Moreover, of a sanctioned strength of 242 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 22 posts (9.09 per cent) were vacant, substantially weakening executive direction of the Force.
Exhaustive and aggressive SF operations in the remaining affected areas are a necessity to contain Maoist efforts to engineer a resurgence. A strengthening of the Bihar’s Police Force would go a long way towards consolidating SF dominance, and establishing an enduring peace in this long-afflicted state.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 16-22, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
BANGLADESH
Islamist
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
UN delegation tells Taliban to end confinement, deprivation and abuse of women's rights: The United Nations (UN) delegation, after its end of the four-day field visit to Afghanistan, called on the Taliban "to end confinement, deprivation, and abuse of women's rights and to put the good of the country first. "Afghanistan is isolating itself, in the midst of a terrible humanitarian crisis and one of the most vulnerable nations on earth to climate change," stated Amina Mohammad, Deputy Chief of the UN. Tolo News, January 21, 2023.
90 percent of human rights activists experienced violence and mistreatment, says Freedom House: The Freedom House says that at least 90 percent of human rights activists said they have experienced violence and mistreatment. "Afghan human rights activists live in fear and face grave challenges, whether they remain in the country or have fled abroad," said Michael Abramowitz, President of Freedom House. Tolo News, January 21, 2023.
More than 40 private universities will be closed if the Taliban ban on female students will continue, says report: The union of private universities said that more than 40 private universities will be closed if the ban on female students will continue. Based on the statistics of the union of private universities, 140 private universities are active in 24 provinces of the country. More than 25,000 people, including academic figures, are employed in the centers. Tolo News, January 17, 2023.
Over 3,500 Rohingyas attempted deadly sea crossings in 2022, says UNHCR: Over 3,500 desperate Rohingyas attempted deadly sea crossings in 39 boats in the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal in 2022, says United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Report represents a 360 per cent increase on the year before when some 700 people made similar journeys, said UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo on January 17. New Age, January 18, 2023.
UNSC designate LeT deputy chief Abdul Rehman Makki: Abdul Rehman Makki, the Pakistan-based Deputy Chief and head foreign affairs wing of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), was on January 16, designated as a global terrorist by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Makki, who is involved in raising funds, recruiting and radicalising youths to resort to violence and planning attacks in India, is LeT Chief Hafiz Saeed's cousin (the son of his maternal uncle). Free Press Journal, January 18, 2023.
Dawood Ibrahim and other D-Company operatives get special treatment at Karachi Airport in Pakistan, reveals NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) which is probing terror funding cases involving Dawood Ibrahim and his syndicate, further revealed that operatives of the D-company get special treatment at Pakistan's Karachi airport. D-Company operatives get hassle-free access at the Karachi airport in Pakistan and enjoy special privileges during check-ins and check-outs and don't even have to go to immigration counters or follow required security protocols. India TV, January 18, 2023.
UMHA justifies ban on SIMI for having links with Al-Qaeda, LeT, JeM and IS: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs(UMHA) on January 18 justified before the Supreme Court the eighth successive ban on the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and told that SIMI cadres are working under the umbrella of frontal organisation or having links with a number of other terrorist groups like the Al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad(JeM), Islamic State (IS), Indian Mujahideen (IM), and added any organisation that has the objective of establishing Islamic rule in India cannot be permitted to exist. The Shillong Times, January 19, 2023.
42 journalists killed in Pakistan in past four years, states Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Murtaza Javed Abbasi: Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Murtaza Javed Abbasi informed the Senate on January 20 that 42 journalists were killed in Pakistan over past four years. Data from the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, showed that 15 of the journalists hailed from Punjab, 11 from Sindh, 13 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and three from Balochistan. Dawn, January 21, 2023.
PTI's 'appeasement' policy towards TTP created issues for Pakistan, says Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari: Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari on January 17 blamed the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led Government for creating problems for Pakistan through its policy of "appeasement" towards the Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). During an interview with Al Jazeera, Bilawal termed Khan's approach "wrong" and assured that the incumbent government has put an end to the PTI's approach.
Zardari said that Pakistan's leadership will not hold talks with terrorist organisations that don't respect the country's laws and the Constitution, adding that the former government adopted an appeasement policy towards the TTP. The Geo News;Dawn, January 13, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend