South Asia Terrorism Portal

NEPAL

Maoists: Back at the Helm
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a dramatic, though expected, development in Nepal’s politics, on December 26, 2022, Maoist veteran Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda took the oath as Prime Minister of Nepal for the third time. He had earlier served as Prime Minister in 2008-2009 and 2016- 2017.

On November 20, 2022, elections for 165 seats of the House of Representatives (HoR) were held under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system in a single phase. In accordance with the constitutional arrangement, 110 seats are allocated under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. There are a total of 275 seats in the HoR.

As per the final results submitted by the Election Commission to President Bidya Devi Bhandari, the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats (57 FPTP+ 32 PR), followed by the K.P. Sharma Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), 78 seats (44 FPTP+ 34 PR); Prachanda-led Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist Centre (CPN-MC), 32 seats (18 FPTP+ 14 PR); Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), 20 seats (7 FPTP+ 13 PR); Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), 14 seats (7 FPTP+ 7 PR); Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSP-N), 12 seats (7 FPTP+ 5 PR); Madhav Kumar Nepal-led Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Socialist (CPN-US), 10 FPTP seats; Janamat Party, six FPTP seats, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party-Nepal (LSP-N), four FPTP seats; Nagarik Unmukti Party, three FPTP seats; and Rashtriya Janmorcha and Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party, one FPTP seat each. Independents secured five seats.   

The then five party Joint Ruling Alliance (JRA) – NC, NCP-MC, CPN-US, LSP-N and Rashtriya Janmorcha – had contested the elections together. The then main opposition party, the CPN-UML had RPP and JSP-N as alliance partners. Though no single party or alliance emerged a clear-cut winner, the JRA could have formed the government, with the help of Independents, as the alliance was in striking distance with 136 seats, just two short of the 138 seats required.  

However, the tussle between Prachanda and Deuba over the issue of who would lead the new government intensified. Reports indicate that, while a tacit understanding was reached between the two leaders to lead the government on a rotational basis, the NC in the morning of December 25, rejected Prachanda’s demand to be the Prime Minister in the first half of the term. Later in the day, Prachanda went to meet his friend-turned-rival-turned-friend, another Maoist veteran, Oli, and brokered a deal to form a new government on rotational basis, with Prachanda becoming the Prime Minister first. Prachanda then exited the JRA. On the same day, along with Oli and other new alliance partners, Prachanda went to President Bidya Devi Bhandari, to stake his claim, and was appointed Prime Minister. The had President set December 25, 2022, as the deadline to stake the claim.

Prachanda has the support of 165 lawmakers, including CPN-UML with 78, CPN-MC with 32, RSP with 20, RPP with 14, JSP-N with 12, Janamat Party with six and Nagarik Unmukti Party with three. The President has given him a month’s time to prove his majority in the house.

On November 20, elections for seven Provincial Assemblies were also held. Government formation at the provincial level is still under process. However, the new alliance is expected to form governments in all seven provinces.

It is useful to recall here that, after the previous HoR elections in 2017, the pre-poll Left alliance, including CPN-UML and CPN-MC, had emerged victorious and formed the government. The two parties later merged and formed the Nepal Communist Party. However, the bonhomie between Prachanda and Oli did not last long and the two parted ways. A demerger took place in March 2021, after which Prachanda supported Deuba to become Prime Minister, leaving Oli rudderless. Now it is time for Deuba to be cast away. 

Meanwhile, the country remains free of terrorism. The last terror-linked fatality was reported on December 8, 2020, when a teacher was shot dead in the Miklajung Rural Municipality in Morang District of Province No. 1. The teacher, identified as Rajendra Shrestha, was killed by Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) cadres. There were 13 fatalities in 2019 (three civilians, two Security Force personnel and eight extremists), all linked to CPN-Maoist-Chand. Violence had surged in 2019 after a lull of almost six years, between 2013 and 2018, during which Nepal recorded just two fatalities (both civilians, in 2013). After facing immense pressure from the Security Forces, the CPN-Maoist-Chand reached a three-point agreement with the Government on March 4, 2021. The agreement stated, inter alia:

No other Maoist insurgent group is violently active. The insurgent groups in Terai have also become dormant.

Concerns, however, persist. The Chand group has constantly been accusing the Government of not implementing the 3-point agreement in toto, as its cadres are still in jail. In a demonstration of its grievances, the Chand group boycotted the recent elections, with its spokesperson Khadga Bahadur Bishwokarma warning,

The party cadres have subsequently been found to be involved in several incidents of explosion.

Inputs, however, indicate that Pakistan-backed Islamist fundamentalist groups have increased their activities in the country, particularly along the India-Nepal border.

Even though the Maoists are back at the helm again, political stability remains at risk. While the old rivalry and distrust between Prachanda and Oli could flare up again at any time, the tussle between new alliance partners cannot be ruled out, given the deep ideological divides. Thus, while the CPN-UML and CPN-MC are Leftist parties, the RPP is a right-wing monarchist group. It is to be noted that the longevity of the JRA was always under threat as it was an opportunistic alliance between NC and Maoists who were bitter rivals during the Nepali civil war, and remained so for much of the time after.

The insurgency is very much in the past in Nepal, but political instability and friction, at least occasionally spilling over into violence, is an ongoing reality. As with much of South Asia, there is little assurance that this will not escalate at any point into wider disorders, with dormant insurgent formations once again finding the opportunity to reassert themselves. The political classes have demonstrated little maturity in their scramble for power, with at least some elements only recently and provisionally distancing themselves from the option of armed insurrection. Crucially, however, the election process appears have to taken hold on both the people and the leadership, with the second successful national election passing quite peacefully, giving some hope that Nepal’s fractious will not translate into armed violence in the foreseeable future.

INDIA

Manipur: Consolidating Gains
Mutum Kenedy Singh
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On December 27, 2022, the Government of India (GoI), the Government of Manipur and the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), a Manipur-based insurgent group, signed a tripartite peace agreement. As per the agreement, the ZUF has agreed to give up violence and join the peaceful democratic process. Manipur Chief Minister (CM), Nongthombam Biren Singh noted,

The ZUF is a militant group formed in 2011 by the indigenous Zeliangrong Naga communities living at the tri-junction of Assam, Manipur and Nagaland. The Zeme, Liangmai and Rongmei Nagas constitute the 'Zeliangrong' group. This militant organisation has had an antagonistic relationship with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM). In this context it will be new a new challenge for the Government, which signed a Ceasefire Agreement with the NSCN-IM in 1997, and a "framework agreement" purportedly outlining the essentials of a final settlement, in 2015. Despite all hype, GoI has failed to reach a final agreement till date.

On March 1, 2022, Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced that GoI would talk with all the militant outfits in Manipur and solve insurgency-related problems in the State by bringing all the cadres of the extremist groups into the mainstream. He added,

However, the invitation for the peace talks was not accepted by the Manipur Valley-based insurgent groups such as the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), the Revolutionary People's Front/People's Liberation Army (RPF/PLA), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) and Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP). These groups remained active and mostly operated out of Myanmar.

Despite the refusal to engage in peace talks, some of the Valley-based militants surrendered in 2022 and joined the mainstream. These included:

According to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, a total of 23 outfits in Manipur under two conglomerates [United Peoples' Front (UPF) – eight, and the Kuki National Organization (KNO) – 15] are currently under Suspension of Operation (SoO) Agreements with the GoI, since August, 2008. SoO Agreements with KNO and UPF are valid up to February 28, 2023.

These various developments have had significant positive impact on the security situation in the state, which at one time was reeling under a virulent insurgency.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Manipur recorded seven fatalities, including five civilians, one trooper and one militant, in 2022. This is a significant fall from 27 fatalities, including eight civilians, five Security Force (SF) personnel and 14 militants, recorded in 2021. The 2022 tally is an all-time low in fatalities recorded in a year since 1992, along with 2020, when there was an equal number of fatalities.

Overall fatalities peaked at 496 in 2008. A high of 266 civilian fatalities were recorded in 1993, while SF fatalities hit their highest mark at 111 in 1997. A maximum of 359 militants were killed in 2008.

Overall terrorism-linked incident have also come down from a high of 922 in 2008, to 163 in 2022.  Incidents of killing, in particular, declined from 309 in 2008, to seven in 2022.

However, there are still several security concerns.

Five civilians were killed in 2022. Though the number in this category has declined from eight in 2021, there was a single civilian fatality in 2020.

There were, however, a few failed attacks as well. On December 6, a China-made hand grenade was hurled at the residence of Khaidem Yamba at Khurai Konsam Leikai, in Imphal East District. The grenade failed to explode. Khaidem Yamba is a nominee of the Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Office, and had received extortion demands from as many as four insurgent groups in the past.

Several attacks were foiled during the year. Most recently, on December 20, 2022, an IED was detected in the Khurai Ahongi Telepati area under the Porompat Police Station in Imphal East District and was later defused.

However, the ineffective enforcement of peace agreements signed earlier and the lack of monitoring of groups under peace talks, are also raising security concerns. Indeed, on December 24, 2022, Chief Minister Singh stated that some of the Kuki militants who were under the SoO were involved in poppy cultivation and were collecting ‘tax’ from poppy cultivators. The cadres of these Kuki groups currently reside in designated camps set up by the government in different Kuki-dominated areas of the Hill Districts of Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal and Chandel. The involvement of these Kuki militants in poppy cultivation was revealed during the interrogation of the village chairman Henkholun Kipgen and village secretary David Kipgen of Selsi village in Kangpokpi District, who were earlier arrested by the Kangpokpi Police on December 22.  

Further, the boundary disputes between Hill and the plains Districts caused significant friction in the State. For instance, on November 16, 2022, a sit-in protest was staged at Nongshum village in Imphal East District, demanding the settlement of the boundary dispute between Imphal East District (Valley District) and Kangpokpi District (Hill District) by setting up a District Boundary Commission to stop the Kuki SoO militants from interfering in the matter. Commenting on the issue on December 25, 2022, Chief Minister Singh appealed to all the people not to be too anxious or restive about the matter, as no changes had been made to the district boundaries demarcated in 1960, and reaffirmed in 1972, and no changes had been made to the district maps.

The failure to hold elections for the Autonomous District Councils (ADCs) has also peeved the Hills people, after the lapse of the last term in November 2020. In this regard, a team of ex-ADC members submitted a memorandum to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 22, 2022. Out of the 60 seats in the Manipur Legislative Assembly, the Valley accounts for 40 Assembly seats and the Hills accounts for 20 seats. The six ADCs of Manipur were established in the Hill areas under the Manipur (Hill Areas) District Councils Act, 1971 and vested with legislative powers for administrative and welfare services. The failure to conduct ADC elections two years after the lapse of the last Council is interpreted by the Hill ADC members as a suspension of the democratic process and suppression of Constitutional rights of the Hill tribal people of the State.

Intelligence reports indicate that nearly 300 cadres of Valley-based insurgent groups are currently stationed across the India-Myanmar border, and are fighting anti-coup forces on behalf of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army). Once the situation improves in Myanmar, these battle-hardened insurgents could venture into India and create disturbances.

Given the persistence of disturbances, Manipur (except Imphal Municipal area), along with the entire State of Nagaland, Assam, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh (Tirap, Changlang and Longding districts and two police stations in Namsai district bordering Assam), are under the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 (AFSPA).

Though the security situation in Manipur has improved considerably over the past several years, several concerns remain, and need to be addressed to ensure an enduring peace. Any pattern of neglect, on the security or political front, can only provide the insurgents opportunities to regroup and create new security challenges.