South Asia Terrorism Portal

Pakistan

Pakistan: Swat: Return of the TTP
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 10, 2022, the son of a local peace committee member was shot dead by unidentified terrorists in the Waliabad area of Swat District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

In a separate incident, on the same day, unidentified terrorists attacked a school van in the Charbagh area of Swat District, killing the driver and injuring two students.

On October 9, 2022, the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) foiled a terrorist attack and killed two Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists during an encounter in the Rahimabad area of Swat District. Four Security Force (SF) personnel were also injured during the encounter. The CTD team recovered hand grenades, weapons, and ammunition from the encounter scene.

It is useful to mention, here, that exactly 10 years ago, on October 9, 2012, Nobel laureate and Child rights activist Malala Yousufzai was attacked in Swat, while she was returning home from school. Yousufzai was grievously injured, but survived the attack.

On September 23, 2022, CTD killed Adil Zaib, a wanted TTP militant in the Charbagh area of Swat District.

On September 13, 2022, a peace committee member and two of his Police guards were among five people killed, while several others sustained injuries, in a remote-controlled blast at the Kot Katai village of the Brai Bandi area of the Kabal tehsil (revenue unit) in Swat District. The peace committee member, identified as Idrees Khan, was the target of blast. A TTP statement later claimed,

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, there was a total of six incidents of killing, in which 12 persons, including seven civilians and five terrorists, were killed in Swat District in the current year (data till October 16, 2022).. In the corresponding period of 2021, three persons, including two civilians and a terrorist, were killed in a single incident. No further killing was reported in the remaining period of 2021. Four persons (one civilian and three terrorists) were killed in 2020 and one person (civilian) was killed in 2019. 12 persons (including 11 troopers and a terrorist) were killed in 2018, the last time fatalities reached double digit in a year.

In Swat, which is roughly 240 kilometers (150 miles) from the capital, Islamabad, Fazal Hayat alias, Maulana Fazlullah alias Mullah Radio, started a radio broadcast in 2004 that carried him into people’s homes and, eventually, won him a wide and violent following. He was the leader of the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi. He later joined the TTP and also became its chief. By late October 2007, Fazlullah had established a "parallel government" in 59 villages in Swat Valley, establishing ‘Islamic courts’ to enforce Sharia law. In early 2009 the group temporarily gained control of about 70 per cent of Swat. Thus, Swat was a major TTP stronghold between 2007 and 2009. In these three years, according to the SATP database, a total of 4,167 persons, including 775 civilians, 422 SF personnel, 2,826 terrorists, and 144 in the ‘not specified’ category, were killed. A high of 402 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2008. SF and terrorist fatalities were highest in 2009, at 177 and 1,742, respectively.

Prior to 2007, between March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on conflict in Pakistan, and 2006, seven persons, including five civilians and two terrorists had been killed in the district.

In 2009, the Pakistani military drove the armed group’s fighters out, and the terrorists took shelter along the border in Afghanistan. At least two million people were displaced from the area in 2009, when the Pakistan Army initiated Operation Rah-e-Rast (path to truth) in a bid to clear the area of terrorists.

After the Operation, violence declined. Between 2010 and 2022 (till October 14), a total of 475 persons, including 142 civilians, 37 SF personnel, 294 terrorists, and two in the not specified category, were killed. Since 2010, civilian fatalities have gone into double figures thrice – in 2010, 2013 and 2014.

The number of civilians killed in Swat in 2022 is highest in a year since 2015, when nine civilians were killed.

An October 12, 2022, report suggested that the TTP has re-emerged in the restive areas of Swat, as militants detained Police personnel and an Army officer after the law enforcement officials launched an operation to capture TTP militants.

Earlier, an August 12, 2022, report noted that TTP militants had established a check-post at Balasoor Top, besides roaming about freely in other areas of the Matta tehsil (revenue unit) of Swat

The local residents said the TTP militants were not only at Balasoor Top, but were also present in large numbers in the mountainous areas of Matta tehsil, including Bar Shor, Koz Shor, Namal, Gat Peuchar and other areas. Importantly, the Geo News correspondent in Swat, Mehboob Ali, claimed that at least 200-250 TTP militants were in the area.

Interestingly, on August 14, Pakistan military’s media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), issued a statement, admitting that the presence of a “small number of armed men on a few mountain-tops between Swat and Dir has been observed”, located far away from populated areas. The ISPR also stated, “Apparently, these individuals sneaked in from Afghanistan to resettle in their native areas”, adding that a “close watch was being maintained on their limited presence and movement in mountains.” However, the military had earlier dismissed what it termed a “misperception about alleged presence of a large number of proscribed organisation TTP’s armed members in Swat Valley”.

Predictably, the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021 has significantly bolstered the TTP terrorists who had taken shelter in Afghanistan, to restore operations in Pakistan. The TTP leadership, along with its foot soldiers, find safe haven in Afghanistan without any constraints.

According to the Thirtieth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2610 (2021) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities, released in July 2022,

These terrorists are now making comeback in Swat and other areas of Pakistan. Despite ongoing talks with the Government, mediated by the Afghan Taliban, they are engaged in violence, and the talks have failed to yield any positive result so far.

Meanwhile, people are furious over the government's inaction, believing that their leaders were either supporting TTP, or are afraid of them, which perhaps explains why the government has not taken any effective action.

On October 11, 2022, thousands of people took to the streets at Nishat Chowk in Mingora, Swat, for a second day, to protest a surge in suspected militant attacks in Swat Valley, fearing that violence could disrupt years of peace, development, and tourist activities. Mingora echoed with slogans of “No more terrorism” and “We demand peace from the state”. Ahmed Shah, spokesperson for the Swat Qaumi Jirga, a representative body of residents, said more than 15,000 people had attended the protest, the sixth in the past two months. Moreover, as reported on October 11, 2022, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) declared that Swat's residents were right to hold the security forces responsible for failing to enforce the writ of the state:

Also, a sizeable campaign against re-Talibanization in ongoing on social media, with trending of #swatrejectsmilitancy, #PashtunLivesMatter and #swatforpeace, where many are accusing the government for not highlighting the popular anti-militancy movement. People from various walks of life are coming out openly on various platforms, to reject terrorism and militancy in Swat.

Meanwhile, KP government spokesperson Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, claimed that militant groups opposed to the talks were active against the government in the province. Further, as he stated on October 11, 2022, that TTP was not behind every incident of terrorism and must not be linked to all of them. He claimed during the peace talks, it had been agreed that TTP would claim responsibility for any act of violence executed by the group.

The situation in Swat and in other parts of KP has demonstrated the inability or lack of political will of the Pakistani government to protect its own citizens from the terrorists, with whom it is engaged in negotiations. Moreover, it also highlights the weakness if the negotiation process, which appears to be moving inexorably to failure, with the TTP leadership displaying complete intransigence on its core objectives.

INDIA

Odisha: Kandhamal – Futile Struggle
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 11, 2022, a woman Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre was killed during an exchange of fire with the Security forces (SFs) in the Sindhi Forest area under Baliguda Police Station limits in Kandhamal District. A trooper was also injured in the exchange of fire. Another 20 Maoists managed to flee, taking cover of the hilly terrain. A country-made pistol and other materials were seized from the spot. The identity of the slain woman Maoist is yet to be ascertained; however, it is suspected that Maoists belonging to the ‘Kandhamal-Kalahandi-Boudh-Nayagarh (KKBN) Division’ of the CPI-Maoist were running the camp in the Sindhi forested area.

Since their last fatality on June 4 , 2017, when a trooper of Special Operation Group (SOG) was killed and another six were injured in a CPI-Maoist ambush near Khamankhol under Baliguda Police Station limits in the Kandhamal District, SFs have killed 17 Maoists, including the last on October 11, 2022. Between September 21, 2004, the date of the formation of CPI-Maoist, and June 3, 2017, SFs lost six of their men and killed three Maoists, suggesting that the Maoists had the upper hand on the ground during that period. The first SF killing in the District was, however, reported on February 11, 2011, and the first Maoist killing was reported on March 14, 2009.

Moreover, SFs have arrested a total of 51 Maoists in the District, since September 21, 2004, though no arrest has been recorded in the current year. Also, mounting SF pressure led to the surrender of 10 Maoists, since 2004, including one in the current year.

Further, to contain the Maoists’ efforts for a revival in the District, SFs are maintained a constant vigil. Most recently, on August 17, 2022, the SFs neutralized a Maoist hideout and recovered some bomb-making materials and Maoist literature which was dumped in a cave near Sumangi village under the Gochhapada Police Station limits in Kandhamal District. Significantly, at least four incidents of recovery of arms have been recorded in the District in the current year, thus far (data till October 16, 2022). A total of 52 such recoveries has been recorded in the District since 2004.

The District has, however, not been able to end civilian fatalities, a key index of security. Despite SF dominance on the ground, since June 4, 2017, nine civilians, including two in 2022, have been killed in the District. On January 30, 2022, suspected CPI-Maoist cadres killed two persons, accusing them of being ‘police informers’, in the Belaghara Police Station limits of Kandhamal District. Bodies of two villagers identified as Bhabani Shankar Patra, son of the Bhandarangi Sarpanch (head of the Panchayat, village level local self-Government institution), and Hemanta Patra of Gochaguda village in the Tumudibandha Block (administrative sub-division) of Kandhamal were found at different places. The Maoists belonging to ‘Bansadhara-Ghumusar-Nagabali (BGN) Division’ in a handwritten note left behind, stated that the two were among those who had tipped off SFs about the presence of rebel cadres in the Belghar area of Kandhamal.

The District had recorded 26 civilian deaths prior to June 4, 2017.

Moreover, though no Maoist has been arrested or surrendered in the current year, since March 6, 2000, a total of 30 LWEs have been arrested and seven have surrendered. Meanwhile, other parameters of violence also indicate that the Maoists are losing their hold in Kandhamal. Maoist-linked incidents declined from 13 in 2019 to 12 in 2020 and 10 in 2021. Nine incidents have been recorded thus far in 2022. No major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) was recorded in 2022, nor in 2021. The last major incident was recorded on July 5, 2020, when four CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an exchange of fire with the SFs at Sirla Forest near the Tumudibandha area. A total of six major incidents have been recorded in the District, since 2004. One incident of arson has also been recorded in the current year, though no such incident was recorded in 2021. A total of eight arson-related incidents have been recorded in the District, since 2004. One incident of abduction has been recorded in the current year, as well as in the corresponding period in 2021, and through 2021. A total of seven such incidents have been recorded since 2004. The Maoists triggered a single blast in the current year, as well as in the corresponding period in 2021, and through 2021. A total of seven such explosions have been recorded since 2004.

Despite the significant containment of the Maoist threat, Kandhamal remains an area of concern.

Kandhamal, one of the 30 Districts of Odisha, is bounded by the Boudh District to the north, Koraput on the south, Nayagarh and Ganjam in the east, and Kalahandi in the West. The District occupies an area of 8,021 square kilometres, of which 5,709.83 square kilometres, about 71.18 per cent of its total geographical area, is under forest cover. The District has two Sub-divisions – Phulbani and Baliguda – and two Notified Area Council (NAC) towns – Phulbani and G. Udaygiri. The District has 12 Blocks – Baliguda, Chakapada, Daringibadi, G. Udaygiri, Khajuripada, Kotagarh, Nuagaon, Phiringia, Phulbani, Raikia, Tikabali, and Tumudibandha. All these areas have recorded Maoist incidents at some point of time. Physiographically, the entire District lies in a hilly zone, interspersed with inaccessible terrain of hills and narrow valley tracts. The District’s geographical proximity to contiguous Maoist-affected areas of the neighbouring Districts of the State have made Kandhamal a perfect area for a guerrilla stronghold and safe haven.

Kandhamal falls under the troubled ‘KKBN Division’ (Kandhamal-Kalahandi-Boudh-Nayagarh), which has accounted for at least 110 Maoist-linked fatalities (48 civilians, 23 SF personnel, and 39 Maoists), since September 21, 2004, around 12.86 per cent of the total fatalities recorded in the State. Odisha recorded 855 Maoist-linked fatalities (360 civilians, 188 SF personnel, and 307 Maoists) and is still considered a challenge among the Maoist-affected regions of the country.

Kandhamal and Kalahandi in Odisha, are on the list of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’, from eight States across India released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on June 19, 2021. Further, Kandhamal and Kalahandi Districts of the State, are also included among the 70 Naxalite [Left Wing Extremism, LWE]-affected Districts in 10 States across India, covered under the Centre’s Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, which funds focused operations against the LWE insurgents.

Indeed, despite great reduction in Maoist activities in the Baliguda and Tumudibandh areas of the Kandhamal District, Maoist activities periodically show up in poster campaigns and other activities. Thus, the Maoists pasted several posters on boundary walls and electric poles in the Mundigarh area in Tumudibandh Police Station limits in Kandhamal District on August 23, 2022. The posters read,

At least six Incidents of recovery of Posters/Pamphlets/Literature has been recorded in the District in the current year, thus far (data till October 16, 2022). A total of 46 such recoveries has been recorded in the District, since 2004.

Meanwhile, according to a May 4, 2022, report, to meet any contingency and to implement the Government's strategy of going deep into the interior regions of the State, night landing-capable helipads established in six places – Kandhamal, Kalahandi, Koraput, Malkangiri, Hantalguda, and Rayagada Districts – were to be made operational. These helipads are to be fitted with sensors and infrared-enabled features which automatically guide a chopper in landing. An unnamed senior official of Odisha Police pointed out,

However, there is further information on the operational status.

Currently, 12 Central Reserve Police Force Companies, along with 10 teams of the Special Operations Group (SOG), 54 District Voluntary Force units, 10 Indian Reserve Battalion and eight Special Security Battalions, are deployed in Kandhamal to counter the Maoists.

Substantial consolidation has been accomplished by the SFs in Kandhamal, one of the last enduring Maoist holdouts in the ‘KKBN Division’. Challenges, however, persist, with significant Maoist efforts to regroup in the District, in spite of the security and developmental consolidation. SF dominance is, nevertheless, inching forward, backed by some formative and government outreach giving succor to the people. With little prospects of a dramatic Maoist restoration in the District and, indeed, in the wider ‘KKBN Division’, it is perhaps time to explore the possibilities of a political process to end this fading conflict.