South Asia Terrorism Portal
Northeast: Political Challenges Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
The results of Assembly Elections of three northeastern states - Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura - declared on March 2, 2023, provides the ruling party at the Centre, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), another opportunity to resolve the issues that have the potential to resurrect insurgencies in these three states in particular, and the region at large. However, the experiences of the last five years, when the BJP and its allies were at the helm in these states, suggest that these are exaggerated expectations, more so as the political challenges have now increased.
To begin with, in Tripura, the BJP's strength in the 60-memebr Assembly has come down from 36 in 2018 to 32 in 2023. Its ally, the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) now has one seat, down from eight in 2018. While it has a clear majority, the alliance is on a shaky ground. Garnering any kind of support from ideologically opposed parties such as the Community Party of India-Marxist, which has won 11 seats, and Indian National Congress (INC), which has won three seats, would be out of question. However, a induced 'change of heart' of the newly elected Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) cannot be ruled out, given the past trend in Indian politics. The prospect of improving the government's strength in the Assembly would depend, substantially, on the newly formed Prayed Manikya Debbarma-led Tipra Motha Party (TMP), which won 13 seats, and has emerged as the second largest party. However, support from this direction is also unlikely, as TPMP fought the election with the 'Greater Tipraland' - a separate state for Tripura's indigenous communities - as its main poll plank. Just before the elections, Debbarma had declared,
On the other hand, the BJP has been opposing this demand since the beginning. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP's architect in the Northeast, asserted during the elections,
In Meghalaya, the National People's Party (NPP) has won 26 seats in the 60-memebr Assembly, followed by the United Democratic Party (UDP), 11 seats; INC and All India Trinamool Congress, five seats each; Voice of the People Party, four seats; BJP, Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), People's Democratic Front, and Independent, two each. The election for one seat was countermanded due to the death of a candidate. In 2018, INC had won 21 seats, followed by NPP, 20 seats; UDP, six seats; People's Democratic Front, four seats; Independents, three seats; BJP and HSPDP, two seats each; and Nationalist Congress Party and Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement, one seat each. The NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance government was formed with the support of UDP, PDF, HSPDP, BJP, and an independent.
However, the BJP parted ways with the Alliance just before the 2023 elections, hoping to "form government at its own". However, after the attempt proved futile, it has again decided to support the NPP, which has staked a claim to form the government with 32 MLAs: NPP (26), BJP (2), HSPDP (2) and Independents (2). Meanwhile, the issue of two HSPDP MLAs lending support to the NPP-led alliance has snowballed into a major controversy and has led to some violence as well.
Soon after NPP leader Conrad K. Sangma made an announcement regarding support from two HSPDP MLAs, HSPDP categorically declared that the party had not authorised these MLAs to lend support for government formation and “the party (HSPDP) has no role in this affair.” Local organisations and activists from the Hynniewtrep Youth Council, the Hynniewtrep Integrated Territorial Organization and others came together, denouncing the MLAs’ decision, and burned their effigies during the demonstration.
A six-party opposition alliance, including HSPDP, is also trying to form the government under the leadership of UDP. The opposition alliance is now harping on the issue of having a Khasi Chief Minister for the state. The stability of the Conrad Sangma government, which is going to be formed on March 7, will consequently be under immediate threat, depending on the action HSPDP chooses to take against the two MLAs supporting NPP.
HSPDP is the oldest regional political party of Meghalaya and has been demanding a separate Khasi-Jaintia State. Its leader, K. Phlastingwell Pangniang, had stated,
HSPDP also supports the Garo National Council’s (GNC’s) demand for ‘Garoland’. On December 12, 2022, in a meeting held at Mawphanlur Tourist Spot in West Khasi Hills District, these two parties discussed the demand for a separate state for the Khasi-Jaintia and Garo people, and they decided to re-constitute the coordination committee between GNC and HSPDP.
In Nagaland, where the risk of the resurrection of the mother of all insurgencies in the Northeast persists, the BJP is back in power with its ally, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). Unlike Tripura, where the BJP and its ally IPFT lost seats, and Meghalaya, where its main ally the NPP also lost seats, the BJP has retained its strength in Nagaland, winning 12 seats in 2023, as in 2018. Its ally, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), has increased its tally from 18 to 25, giving more strength to the alliance in the 60-member Assembly. Worryingly for the BJP, however, the NDPP’s reliance on the BJP has diminished.
Elections in Mizoram, where the regional party, Mizo National Front, is in power, are due later in 2023. In Assam, Manipur and Arunachal, the BJP is at the helm (Assam goes to the polls next in 2026, Manipur in 2027, and Arunachal in 2024).
Meanwhile, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), insurgency in all these states has been on a decline over the past several years. In 2022, the Northeast region recorded the lowest fatalities, a total of 21, since 1992. The previous low of 27 was recorded in 2020. Since 2018, fatalities in the region have remained in two digits, with a high of 72 in 2021. Between 1992 and 2017, total fatalities were in four digits for 10 years, and in three digits for 16 years.
Civilian fatalities in the region, the critical indicator of security in any area of conflict, were down to five in 2020, but increased to 21 in 2021, to decline, again, to 12 in 2022. At peak, 946 civilians were killed in 2000 alone. Fatalities in this category remained in three digits between 1992 and 2009, but touched three digits only once thereafter, when 243 civilians were killed in 2014.
The situation has improved as the Security Forces have consolidated their gains on the ground in subsequent years. Two SF personnel were killed in 2022, as against eight in 2021. A high of 289 SF fatalities was recorded in 1997. SF fatalities remained in two digits between 2007 and 2018, as well as in 2003 and 2005, and have been in single digits since then.
Terrorist fatalities have also declined, from a peak of 599 in 2000, down to seven in 2022, the lowest ally since 1992. Terrorist fatalities remained in three digits between 1992 and 2015, and have been in the double digits since then.
These numbers clearly indicate tremendous improvement in the security situation in the region, as most of the major militant groups, after suffering body blows at the hand of the SFs, have now been brought into peace processes. However, most of these negotiations are yet to reach to a conclusive outcome.
It is useful to recall here that the even after almost seven years of the signing of Framework Agreement of 2015, the ‘Naga talks’ continue to linger, with no visible signs of any imminent resolution.
Political stability in India’s Northeast is essential if the region’s many insurgencies are to be steered towards sustainable resolution. The BJP now controls five of the region’s seven historically insurgency afflicted states (the eighth, Sikkim, has remained peaceful) and should find significant opportunities for resolution. However, the many contradictions of the region, the fractious politics of the states, and the BJP’s own politics of polarization, as well as its ideology of Hindutva, will stand in the way of the necessary accommodation, if enduring settlements are to be reached.
Telangana: Surviving Threat Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 3, 2023, two Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) Pamed Dalam (armed squad) members, identified as Sodi Kame and Sodi Bandu, and a sympathiser, Sodi Chanti, were arrested by the Police from the Paidigudem Forest area on the Telangana-Chhattisgarh border in the Bhadradri Kothagudem District. Vineeth G., Superintendent of Police (SP), disclosed that the arrested Maoists had come to the Paidigudem Forest to plant landmines to target the Police. 10 gelatin sticks, four electric detonators, 20 metres of cordex wire, 50 metres of electric wire, a battery and a steel bucket were recovered from them.
On February 21, 2023, CPI-Maoist Sabari Local Organisation Squad (LOS) ‘commander’, identified as Paddam Kosaiah aka Sandeep, who had a cash reward of INR 400,000 on his head, was arrested by the Police during a combing operation in the Erraboru Forest area under the Cherla Mandal (administrative sub-division) in the Bhadradri Kothagudem District, Telangana. An Improvised Explosive Device (IED) training book, 10 gelatin sticks, two detonators, cordex wire, tiffin box, electric wire, batteries, and Maoist literature were recovered from his possession. According to reports, there were 27 cases filed against him in Telangana, seven in Andhra Pradesh, and eight in Chhattisgarh State. These included the killing of 17 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in an ambush under the Chintagufa Police Station limits in Sukma District, Chhattisgarh, in March 2020; and the killing of 24 CRPF personnel at Tekulagudem under Tarrem Police Station limits in Chhattisgarh State in April 2021.
On February 20, 2023, a CPI-Maoist couple, identified as Madhukar Chinanna Kodape aka Thuge (42), and his wife, Jamani Mangalu Punam aka Shamala (35), who were allegedly involved in several violent incidents, both carrying a total reward of INR 1 million, were arrested by the Gadchiroli (Maharashtra) Police from Hyderabad District, Telangana. The Maoist couple, who have been staying in Gachibowli in Hyderabad for the past few years, reportedly left the CPI-Maoist movement in 2006 and had since been evading arrest. The Police found that Madhukar was working as a watchman for a local security company in the city, while Shamala was working in the housekeeping department of a car showroom. The duo had concealed their real identities and attended work regularly. Madhukar worked in various positions in the CPI-Maoist party and allegedly was involved in 25 serious offences registered against him at various Police Stations in Gadchiroli District, while Shamala was involved in nine serious offences, including a murder. The Gadchiroli Police had been on the lookout for them for the last one.
On January 5, 2023, two CPI-Maoist couriers, P. Sammaiah (35), and Satyaveni (33), both hailing from Cherla, were arrested by a joint squad of the Cherla Police and CRPF personnel during a vehicle checking drive on the outskirts of the Cherla Mandal headquarters town in Bhadradri Kothagudem District. A bundle of 200 metres Cordex wire, 10 pressure cookers, some substances used for making explosive materials, and a tractor-trolley were seized from them. The duo had been working as couriers for Bhadradri-Kothagudem division ‘secretary’ Azad, providing essential commodities and explosive materials to the ultras operating in neighbouring Chhattisgarh for the preceding two years.
Thus, eight Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) have been arrested in four separate incidents in Telangana in 2023, thus far (data till March 5), according to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). There were 21 incidents of arrest in which 41 Naxalites were arrested in the state in 2022, in addition to 20 such incidents in which 61 Naxalites were arrested in 2021. The total number of such incidents and number of arrests since June 2, 2014, when Telangana was formed, is 184 and 427, respectively.
In the meantime, a CPI-Maoist Dalam member, identified as Madavi Bheema aka Dashru, surrendered before the Superintendent of Police (SP) Sangramsingh, G. Patil, in Mulugu District on January 25, 2023, the only surrender that has taken place in the current year (data till March 5, 2023). At least 24 LWEs surrendered in 10 incidents through 2022, in addition to 138 surrenders in 18 incidents in 2021. A total of 292 Naxalites have surrendered since June 2, 2014.
Though no Naxalite has been killed in the current year, at least 37 Naxalites were killed in the state between June 2, 2014 and March 5, 2023, including three in 2022, four in 2021, 10 in 2020, two in 2019, one in 2018, 12 in 2017, two in 2016, two in 2015, and one in 2014.
Worth noting, no Security Force (SF) fatality has been recorded in this entire period, and SFs have maintained their dominance since the formation of the state.
12 civilians have, however, been killed in 11 incidents of killing by Naxalites since June 2, 2014. Two civilians were killed in each of 2022, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2015, and 2014. No civilian fatality was recorded in 2021, 2019, 2016 and 2023 (till March 5).
It is useful to recall that the Telangana region of the erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh, before the June 2, 2014, bifurcation, was the epicentre of Maoist activities and violence through the 1990s and early 2000s. Between March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Naxalite violence in India, and June 2, 2014 (the date of formation of Telangana), of an overall 1,581 fatalities, including (513 civilians, 131 SF personnel, 884 Naxalites, and 53 deaths not specified), recorded in the whole of Andhra Pradesh, the nine districts of united Andhra Pradesh – Hyderabad, Mahbubnagar, Medak, Nalgonda, Nizamabad, Adilabad, Karimnagar, Khammam, and Warangal – which became part of Telangana region, accounted for 955 fatalities (302 civilians, 48 SF personnel, 577 Naxalites, and 28 ‘not specified’), i.e., around 60.40 per cent of the total fatalities.
Further, based on assessments of underground and over ground activities of the Naxalites, two districts – Mulugu and Bhadradri Kothagudem – remain in the ‘moderately affected’ category, while four districts – Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Khammam, and Jayashankar Bhupalpally – are marginally affected, according to SATP data for 2022. In 2021, two districts – Bhadradri Kothagudem and Mulugu – remained in the moderately affected category, while six districts – Hyderabad, Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Khammam, Peddapally, Rajanna-Sircilla, and Yadadri Bhongir – were marginally affected.
Further, according to the last dataset released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on June 19, 2021, one district of Telangana, Bhadradri Kothagudem, was included among the 25 ‘Most Affected Districts’ from eight states across India. In addition, six districts of Telangana (Adilabad, Bhadradri Kothagudem, Jayashankar-Bhupalpally, Komaram Bheem Mancherial, and Mulugu) were included in a list of 70 districts in 10 states across the country, covered by the ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which underwrites focused operations against the Naxalites w.e.f. July 1, 2021.
Evidently, the Maoist threat has not been completely ended, despite very significant gains registered by the SFs. Consequently, in addition to steps taken over the past several years, the state government also initiated a number of new programs in 2022.
For instance, on December 10, 2022, releasing a poster captioned 'Action Team Samacharam Maku… Bahumathi Meeku' [give us information (about the Maoists action team) and take huge cash as a reward] containing details, including names, photographs, and the rewards in the district, and appealing to people to tip-off the Police about their movements, Bhupalpally, SP, J Surender Reddy, stated,
He added, further, that people could give information by dialing 100 as well as by contacting SP Bhupalpally directly, or one of a number of other officers, each of whose contact numbers were provided in the poster, to give details regarding the Maoists.
Similarly, on October 12, 2022, Jayashankar Bhupalpally SP, J. Surender Reddy, appealed to the kin of CPI-Maoist underground cadres to see that the latter surrender before the Police and lead a peaceful life. The SP also promised that cases would be dropped against those who joined the mainstream, and they would also be provided with employment.
Earlier, on September 7, 2022, alleging that the Maoists were luring innocent people to join them, Additional Superintendent of Police (ASP) Sudhir Ramnath Kekan urged people to cooperate with the Police, to check the spread of Maoist activities in Mulugu District. ASP Kekan also urged people to provide information about the movement of Maoist leaders and cadre.
Notwithstanding the remaining Maoist challenge, the Telangana Police continues to face deficits in terms of capacities to fight the menace, as well as to perform general duties of policing in the state. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2021, Telangana had 157.11 Police personnel per 100,000 population, against the sanctioned strength of 219.72, a deficit of 28.49 per cent the sanctioned strength for the States’ Police is 82,613, but 59,073 personnel were in position). The Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometers) is just 52.69, as against the national average of 62.96. Both the state and national averages on the Police/Area ratio are below the sanctioned strength, at 73.68 and 80.07, respectively. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) officers in the state is 139, but just 106 officers were in position, a deficit of 23.74 per cent, which considerably weakens the executive supervision of the force.
The SFs have established dominance over the rebels in their erstwhile areas of supremacy in Telangana, yet the dogged efforts of the rebels to continue with their movement cannot be ignored. Critical security gaps in capacities and deployment in the state need urgent attention, to ward off the possibility of a rebel resurgence in the state.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia February 27 - March 5, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
Jharkhand
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Taliban violated the Doha commitment, says Spokesperson for the United States Department of State Ned Price: On March1, Spokesperson for the United States Department of State, Ned Price said that the Taliban has Taliban the Doha commitment. "We have seen Mullah Baradar's own statement, and we of course disagree with the key points in his own statement. Namely, the Taliban have not fulfilled their own commitments - the commitments that they made in the Doha Agreement, the Taliban also have not fulfilled their Doha commitment to engage in political dialogue leading to a negotiated settlement. That remains to be done. We shouldn't forget that the Doha Agreement envisioned a peaceful settlement, not a takeover on the part of the Taliban," said Price. Tolo News, March 4, 2023.
Afghanistan still a grave humanitarian crisis, says UN: "Afghanistan remains the world's largest humanitarian crisis in 2023, with the exception of Turkey and Syria, which suffered from a deadly earthquake", states Ramiz Alakbarov, United Nations (UN) Deputy Special Representative and Humanitarian Coordinator for Afghanistan on February 28. He added that climate change and the economic downturn continue to fuel the crisis in Afghanistan, and there have been no "encouraging developments" towards getting girls back into classrooms. UN News, March 2, 2023.
Afghanistan needs 4.6 billion dollars in humanitarian aid in 2023, states OCHA: On February 26, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aid (OCHA) stated that Afghanistan will require 4.6 billion dollars in humanitarian aid in 2023 for more than 28 million people, enabling humanitarian aid organisations to assist vulnerable families during the planting season and prepare for floods across Afghanistan. The Khaama Press, February 28, 2023.
Rohingya refugees decry 'devastating' cuts to food assistance: On March 2, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh said they are struggling to survive after the United Nations (UN) slashed their food assistance due to a massive funding gap. After a USD 125 million donation shortfall, monthly food vouchers were cut from USD 12 to USD 10 per person starting in March, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) announced, warning further cuts were "imminent" without an immediate cash injection. RTL Today, March 3, 2023.
Misir Besra becomes the 'supreme commander' of Eastern Regional Bureau of CPI-Maoist: Misir Besra aka Sunirmal aka Sagar Ji, has been made the 'supreme commander' of the Eastern Regional Bureau (ERB) of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), comprising of States of Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Eastern India, whose headquarter is located in Saranda. According to information, a meeting of 'Central Committee (CC)' members was held in Saranda in the recent past (date not mentioned), in which Besra was elected as the 'supreme commander' of the ERB. Lagatar, March 1, 2023.
CorCom appoints 'acting president' in Manipur: Coordination Committee (CorCom), a conglomerate of seven valley-based militant outfits of Manipur has appointed Revolutionary People's Front (RPF) 'acting president' M.M. Ngouba as its convenor-in charge until the appointment of a new convenor as per a press release signed by media coordinator of CorCom M. Sakhen. RPF president Irengbam Chaoren, who passed away on February 9 due to brain tumor, was the previous convenor of CorCom. The Sangai Express, March 2, 2023.
Indian government made significant efforts in 2021 to detect, disrupt, and degrade operations of terrorist organizations, says US bureau on counterterrorism report: According to the annual report of the United States (US bureau on counterterrorism), 'Country Reports on Terrorism 2021: India' released on February 27, the Indian government made significant efforts in 2021 to detect, disrupt, and degrade operations of terrorist organizations. The report mentioned that, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), Islamic State (IS), Al-Qaeda, and the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) are among the terrorist groups active in India. Hindustan Times, February 28, 2023.
Former Al Badr 'commander' Syed Khalid Raza shot dead by SRA cadres in Karachi city of Sindh: Syed Khalid Raza (55), former 'commander' of Al Badr, was shot dead by Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) outside his residence in Block-7 of Gulistan-i-Jauhar town in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, in the evening of February 26. Syed Khalid Raza was the deputy director of the Darul Arqam Schools in Karachi region. He was also the vice chairman of the Federation of Private Schools Pakistan. Dawn, March 1, 2023.
Militant attacks surged in February, says PICSS report: According to Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) report, the militant attacks witnessed a surge in the month of February this year, but the resultant deaths were down as compared to January. An attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on Karachi Police Headquarters was the most high-profile attack in the month of February. According to the statistics released by PICSS, militants carried out 58 attacks during the past month in which 62 people were killed, including 27 civilians, 18 Security Forces (SFs) personnel and 17 militants while 134 people were injured, including 54 civilians and 80 SFs personnel. Dawn, March 3, 2023.
Around 70 most-wanted 'terrorists' of Da'esh and Al-Qaeda arrested from across Punjab during last 11 months, reveals Punjab Police's official documents: The Punjab Police's official documents reveal that the counter-terrorism authorities have arrested over 170 most-wanted terrorists in a series of covert operations spanning over 11 months across Punjab. Punjab Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) launched covert operations against operatives of the Islamic State (IS), Al-Qaeda, Islamic State-Khorasan and other local militant groups last year Samaa English, March 3, 2023.
TTP wants to push Government out of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to establish Sharia, says US State Department report: According to a United States (US) State Department report, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) aims to push the Government of Pakistan out of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and establish Sharia by waging a terrorist campaign against the military and state. According to the 2021 'Country Reports on Terrorism', the TTP uses the tribal belt along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border to train and deploy its operatives. TTP draws ideological guidance from Al-Qaeda, while elements of Al-Qaeda rely in part on TTP for safe haven in the Pashtun areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border Dawn, March 2, 2023.
LTTE's international network still active, says US report: According to the United States (US) Department of State 2021 Country Reports on Terrorism, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)'s international network of sympathizers and financial supporters is still active, despite its military defeat in 2009 at the hands of the Sri Lankan Government. The report stated that there have been no known attacks in Sri Lanka attributed to the LTTE since 2009, but 13 LTTE supporters, several of whom had planned attacks against US and Israeli diplomatic facilities in India, were arrested in Malaysia in 2014. Colombo Gazette, February 28, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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