South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

Turbulent Nation
Ajit Kumar Singh
Senior Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

The chronic political disorders in Pakistan turned into a full-blown crisis with the arrest of former Prime Minister (PM) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan on May 9, 2023, in one of the 143 ongoing cases against him. The subsequent violence unleashed by his party cadres/supporters, was unprecedented even by Pakistani standards. Imran Khan is now out of jail following a Supreme Court (SC) order and the violence has subsided, but a more chaotic situation is likely to emerge, as the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government, working in tandem with the all-powerful Military Establishment, seems hell-bent on his re-arrest. Khan’s anti-Military Establishment line remains unchanged, and has, indeed, become even more belligerent.      

Significantly, on May 9, when Imran appeared before a court in Islamabad, the national capital, he was arrested from inside the courtroom “for the crime of corruption” in the Al-Qadir Trust headed by him and his wife Bushra Bibi. Immediately after the arrest, which his party termed an abduction by the State Forces from the courtroom, PTI cadres and supporters unleashed large-scale violence. Though Pakistan has a long history of political leaders being jailed or killed or ousted from power, never before has the retaliation been so strong.

Indeed, soon after Khan’s arrest in Islamabad, protests erupted in the city and spread rapidly to other parts of the country, including major cities such as Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Multan, Peshawar and Mardan. Crowds of protesters, mostly PTI supporters, chanting Allahu Akbar and Nara-e-Takbeer lined up on the streets of Pakistan, going on a rampage against security establishments and personnel. In the most daring attack, which may have a long-lasting impact on Army’s position in Pakistan, protestors stormed the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army in the garrison city of Rawalpindi – the absolute seat of the Army’s power. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Headquarters in Islamabad also came under attack. The Corps Commander's residence in Lahore was also ransacked and vandalized. Several videos on social media depicting pictures of mayhem across Pakistan flooded the Internet, as violent protests spread. 

On May 9, the government restricted mobile internet services across the country and prohibited the use of social media platforms such as YouTube, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Even on May 13, the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority disclosed that it had received no instructions to restore access to social media, though mobile internet services had been restored across the country.

Meanwhile, according to reports at least 10 people were killed and several hundred wounded, including Army and police officers. Khan, however, alleged that that 'live fire' by Security Forces (SFs) had killed at least 40 protesters.

Earlier, after the Islamabad High Court (IHC) ruling that Khan's arrest was "legal", he had appealed to the SC. On May 11, the SC termed the arrest "invalid and unlawful" and ordered his release but asked the Police to keep him under protection and produce him before the IHC on May 12. The SC order read,

The SC directed Khan to follow the decision taken by the IHC on his petitions.

As directed, Imran appeared before the IHC on May 12, which granted him a two-week bail in the Al-Qadir Trust case. However, apprehensive of getting arrested in other cases filed earlier, Khan’s lawyers appealed to the IHC to grant him protective bail. As a result, the Court barred the authorities from arresting him till May 15 in all such cases. It also barred authorities from arresting him till May 17, in any cases registered in the jurisdiction of Islamabad after May 9. 

After the orders, while hailing the judiciary, a buoyant Khan continued with his tirade against the Army, declaring, on May 12, “it’s not the security institution, it is just one man, the Army Chief” who was responsible for his arrest, adding, “there is no democracy in the Army.” Interestingly, many in Pakistan insist that Khan was elected as PM in 2018 with the support of the Military Establishment. He has now paid the price for his attempts to free himself from the Army’s clutches. Indeed, he was ‘voted out’ as PM by the National Assembly in April 2022, after persistent political chaos orchestrated by the Army, and spearheaded by the opposition parties. Before the vote of confidence, 123 PTI Members of the National Assembly, including Khan, resigned and walked out of the House. Khan also faced an attack on his life on November 3, 2022.

However, with its 'prestige' severely hit due to the PTI protests, the Army is in no mood for any rapprochement with Khan and seems to be preparing to take harsh actions against him and his party and to bring down the curtain on his political career. An Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) release on May 10 thus observed,

The statement warned, further, that any future attack on the Army as well as any law enforcement agency, military and state installation or properties, would attract severe retaliation against the group that "wants to push Pakistan into a civil war".

On May 12, Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir declared,

Indeed, SFs have unleashed a crackdown against the PTI. Top PTI leaders, including Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Fawad Chaudhry, Asad Umar and Omer Cheema, were taken into custody within 24 hours of the beginning of the protest and transferred to Adiala Jail under detention for 15 days. At the time of writing, SF personnel, had rounded up over 1,800 PTI leaders and supporters since May 9.

The civilian government and the parties in the ruling alliance, working in tandem with the Military Establishment, meanwhile, have launched a scathing attack on the SC's decision to release Imran. On May 12, commenting on the SC order, PM Shehbaz Sharif stated that if the "favourite [Imran]" continued to be favoured, then all dacoits behind bars should be also released across Pakistan. "These are the double standards that have brought about the death of justice," he lamented. On May 12, while speaking on the SC's verdict, Federal Minister of the Interior Rana Sanaullah asserted that whatever had happened was "unprecedented" and "there is no example of such judicial decisions and means of facilitation are being invented. In the most scathing attack, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Chief Organiser, Maryam Nawaz, tweeted,

She advised Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial to resign from his position and join PTI, just like his mother-in-law Mahjabeen Noon.

Not surprisingly, the authorities in Pakistan are waiting for the May 17 deadline to pass to arrest Khan in connection with the violent protests of May 9 and thereafter. Indeed, commenting on IHC's decision, on May 13, Rana Sanaullah, declared that the Court's orders would be implemented and Khan would not be arrested till May 17. He however, added,

PM Sharif had earlier stated that "bringing these people [those involved in vandalism] to justice is a test case for the government. Their cases will be tried by the anti-terrorism courts".

All indications suggest an imminent escalation of the political crisis. There is a possibility also of a significant rise in terrorism, with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) intensifying operations as well. It is useful to recall that Khan has long been relatively sympathetic to the TTP, long supporting a negotiated settlement with the terrorists, instead of kinetic operations against them. Of course, Khan has also alleged that the TTP was trying to kill him - a charge the TTP leadership has denied - but there is no reason to believe, if nothing more, that the TTP will take advantage of any compounding of the political disorders in the country to intensify its own campaign of terror.

Amidst a deteriorating security situation in the country due to escalating terrorism, more particularly after the withdrawal of the TTP from peace talks in November 2022, the volatile economic and uncertain political situation, Khan's onslaught, even after his release from jail, against the Military Establishment and the government has unnerved both the centres of national power. Nevertheless, it is useful to recall that the Army remains by far the most powerful institution in Pakistan. While there are several reports of increasing divisions within the Army leadership on Imran Khan and the PTI's recent actions, it is unlikely that these would be sufficient to force the Army to abandon its present hardline. Given the scale and character of the protests across the country after Khan's arrest, however, there can be no simple predictions of any easy outcome of the present contretemps - certainly in the long run. After a downslide over decades, Pakistan appears to be at the threshold of some very 'interesting times'.

INDIA

LWE: Explosive Reserves
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 11, 2023, one Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) trooper was injured while another had a narrow escape in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast triggered by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in Ichahatu village under Goilkera Police Station limits in the West Singhbhum District of Jharkhand.

On April 28, 2023, a woman, Gangi Surin, was killed after being hit by an IED planted by the Maoists in Maridiri Forest located on the border of the Goilkera Police Station and Mufassil Police Station areas in West Singhbhum District, Jharkhand. Gangi, a resident of Patahatu village, was going to fetch wood from the forest, when she stepped on the IED. Reports indicate that the IED was planted with an intention to target Security Forces (SFs).

On April 26, 2023, at least 10 personnel of the District Reserve Guards (DRG) and a civilian driver were killed, when Maoists first detonated an IED, weighing around 50 kilograms, and subsequently opened fire on an SF convoy on the Aranpur Road, under the Aranpur Police Station limits, in the Dantewada District of Chhattisgarh. The DRG personnel were returning from an anti-Maoist operation in the area.

On April 20, 2023, Sitaram Kudiyam (40), a Policeman, was injured in an explosion while he was diffusing an IED, planted by the Maoists, near Bangapal village under Nelasnar Police Station limits in Bijapur District, Chhattisgarh. The Police team had detected the IED during patrolling, three kilometers from Bangapal.

On April 17, 2023, a DRG trooper, identified as Shankar Paret, sustained injuries when an IED exploded while he was trying to defuse it. The IED was recovered during the search operation which followed an encounter between the Police and Maoists in the forests of Bade Tungali under the Jangla Police Station area of Bijapur District.

On April 7, 2023, a DRG trooper, Anjuri Ram Baghel, was injured in an IED blast triggered by Maoists in the Bahker Forest area under Chhotedongar Police Station limits in the Narayanpur District of Chhattisgarh.

These recent incidents, in which Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) used explosives to target SFs engaged in area domination exercises. In some cases, civilians ended up as collateral damage. In many cases in the past, the Maoists have been killed or injured in such incidents, as they are followed by encounter between the SFs and the rebels. 

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 26 incidents of explosions have been orchestrated by the Naxalites, resulting in 18 fatalities (six civilians and 12 SF personnel) and injuries to 298 persons (four civilians and 25 SF personnel), since the beginning of the current year, (data till May 14 2023). During the corresponding period of 2022, 23 such incidents were executed, resulting in five fatalities (three civilians, one trooper and one Maoist), and injuries to 18 persons (one civilian and 17 SF personnel). A total of 32 incidents of explosion were carried out by CPI-Maoist cadres, resulting in six fatalities (four civilians, one SF trooper and one Maoist), and injuries to 27 persons (five civilians and 22 SF personnel) through 2022.

Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started recording data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence across the country, the number of such explosions stands at 1,568. These incidents have resulted in 1,870 fatalities (526 civilians; 1,185 SF personnel, 119 Maoists and 40 unspecified deaths) and injuries to 2,280 persons (717 civilians, 1,370 SF personnel, 136 Maoists and 57 unspecified injured). A high of 187 such incidents were registered in 2009, while in terms of resulting fatalities, 2010 was the worst year, with 388 killed. Conspicuously, the worst incident  of explosion (followed by firing) was recorded on April 6, 2010, in which at least 75 CRPF personnel and a State Police trooper were killed at the Tarmetla village in Chintalnar near the thick Mukrana Forests in the Dantewada District of Chhattisgarh. In the incident, the Maoists had first blown up an SF anti-landmine vehicle, and then fired indiscriminately.

As the SFs engage in area domination, cordon-and-search, combing, search, long range patrolling, ambush-cum-patrolling and other operations, the Maoists have built an explosive arsenal comprising of landmines, claymore mines, grenades, sticky bombs, pressure cooker bombs, crude rocket launchers, gelatine sticks, mortars and a range of IEDs. In most attacks, the Maoists first use explosives targeting SFs vehicles or camps/posts, and then open fire on in planned ambushes, a pattern that causes maximum damage and helps them evade direct confrontations. Significantly, IEDs are among the most potent tools deployed by the Maoists, enabling even a small group to inflict huge damage. As a result, the theft of about 7,000 detonators from the stores of a private by suspected Maoists in West Singhbhum District on March 30, 2023, is disturbing.

Former Director General CRPF, Kuldiep Singh, on April 29, 2023, emphasized that the Naxalites are well-trained in guerrilla warfare and the same training is given to new recruits. The cadres increasingly avoid direct confrontation with SFs, since their numbers and influence have diminished substantially, and a frontal encounter is likely to reduce their strength and appeal even further. The rebels use the command IED, or wired IED, which is equipped with a wire, connected to a detonator, placed at a distance from the operator. The blast can consequently be triggered from a safe distance of 200 to 300 metres to target any moving convoy. While commenting on the April 26, 2023, attack Singh thus noted,

Moreover, on April 28, 2023, Shesh Paul Vaid, who served as Director General of Police, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), between 2016 and 2018, observed that the Maoists have realised that using an IED was less risky as it minimized chances of contact with SFs. Vaid asserted,

Meanwhile, in the wake of regular incidents of villagers getting killed in the IED explosions in the LWE-hit areas, the CPI-Maoist has been issuing 'advisories' to the villagers to take necessary precaution while walking into the forest in search of firewood and other work. For instance, the Maoist 'South Chhotanagpur Zonal Committee' circulated a letter dated April 17, 2023, claiming that many IEDs that were planted in the forest to target SFs were active. Besides, booby traps and spike holes had also been laid to prevent the armed forces from entering the forest. Consequently, the villagers should take utmost precaution when walking in the forests. Additionally, the letter emphasized,

The Maoists have warned that their “fatal tricks” to target the SFs will continue as long as the anti-Naxalite operations continue and argue that the State Government and local Police is responsible for any collateral fatalities among the civilians due to such attacks.

The Maoists are fighting for their survival with rapidly depleting cadre strength, as many of their fighting forces have either been eliminated, arrested or have surrendered. In such a situation increased "used of" explosives is very likely. This will be a challenge for the SFs, who are now at the cusp of comprehensively defeating this enduring insurgency.