South Asia Terrorism Portal
Manipur: Ethnic Ferment Ajit Kumar Singh Senior Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Ethnic clashes erupted between Kukis and Meitei/Meetei on May 3, 2023, in Churachandpur District and spread rapidly across the state. Kuldeep Singh, security advisor, Manipur Government, stated on May 7, 2023,
Varying media reports, however, have put the death count anywhere between 50 to more than a hundred.
Earlier, on May 6, 2023, denying media reports, Kuldeep Singh asserted that there had been no promulgation of Article 355 (direct control of the state by the Union Government) in Manipur and "confusion had been created by certain elements". He added that action would be taken up against all those who had taken the law into their hands, including groups that were under Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreements. He disclosed that as many as 54 companies of the Central Armed Police Force had been deployed to ensure public safety in the state, of which 15 companies were deployed in the periphery areas, including the foothills and tracks. A regular watch with drones and helicopters was also being maintained.
The Army, meanwhile, issued a statement:
Earlier, on May 4, 2023, the Governor of Manipur was forced to give the nod to 'shoot at sight' orders. The official order said,
While the scale of the pandemonium that the state went through has now subsided, there are now strong apprehensions that marginalized insurgent groups will exploit the current situation to resurrect the dying armed movements in the state.
The ethnic divide between the Meiteis, who primarily inhabit the Valley Districts and constitute more than 50 per cent of the population, and Kukis residing in the Hills, is age-old. The divide, however, started widening after the Meiteis raised the demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) almost 10 years ago. The Scheduled Tribe Demand Committee of Manipur (STDCM) was spearheading the movement. Significantly, following the STDCM representation on May 29, 2013, demanding ST status for the Meitei, a letter was sent by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, to the Manipur Government. It requested specific recommendations, along with the latest socio-economic survey and ethnographic report. The state government, however, deliberately failed to submit the recommendation even after 10 years. The Meitei ST status demand was based on the argument that the Meitei community had tribal status before September 21, 1949, i.e., before the signing the Merger Agreement with the Union of India (UOI). It also argued that Meitei had lost their identity as a tribe and should consequently be included among the tribes of Manipur so as to preserve the community, and save their ancestral lands, traditions, culture and language.
As the Governments of the day continued to ignore, several members of the Meitei Tribe Union filed a civil writ petition in Manipur High Court (HC) on January 30, 2023. The HC in its order on March 27, 2023, noted that "no satisfactory explanation is forthcoming from the side of the respondent State for not submitting the recommendation for the last 10 years", and directed "the respondent State to submit its recommendation to the Ministry of Tribal Affairs within a reasonable time". It ordered, further,
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court, is to hear a cluster of petitions related to Meitei ST status and the recent violence.
The Kukis are vehemently opposing the efforts to give ST status to the Meitei and have put forth various arguments. Those who participated in Tribal Solidarity March under the theme "Come Now Let Us Reason Together" held on May 3, 2023, at the Ukhrul District Headquarters, submitted a memorandum, addressed to the President of India, through the Deputy Commissioner of Ukhrul, which read,
The memorandum further read,
It is quite evident that both sides have their own reservations and fears and the issue needed honest deliberation. However, as expected, given the nature of politics in contemporary India, when the politics of polarization and identity have overwhelmed all other aspects, the issue has been allowed to boil over.
Indeed, no affirmative action was taken even when there were visible signs of efforts to ignite passion in the aftermath of the recent HC judgment.
Significantly, in a statement issued on April 27, 2023, the All Tribal Students’ Union, Manipur (ATSUM), the apex tribal body in Manipur, announced that it would organise a ‘Tribal Solidarity March’ on May 3, 2023, in Manipur’s hill districts — Senapati, Ukhrul, Kangpokpi, Tamenglong, Churachandpur, Chandel and Tengnoupal. The solidarity march themed, Come now, let’s reason together was intended to press against the demand for inclusion of the Meitei/Meetei community in the ST list.
Despite the sensitivity of the issue, no precautionary measures were taken, and violence erupted during the protest on May 3, 2023, first in Torbung, one of the few Meitei villages in the Churachandpur District, where the Kukis are a majority. As the state administration was found unprepared, the violence spread rapidly across the state.
The distrust between the tribes (mainly Kukis) and the state government, dominated by the Meitei, has been on the rise since the state government’s drive to evict tribal populations from reserved forests began in February 2023. Following a violent clash that occurred at Thomas Ground in Kangpokpi District, where protesters tried to hold a mass rally against "encroachment of tribal lands in the name of reserved forests, protected forests and wildlife sanctuary" in March 2023, in which five persons were injured, the state cabinet withdrew the SoO talks with two Kuki militant outfits, Kuki National Army and Zomi Revolutionary Army.
Moreover, the adverse impact of the deteriorating security situation in Myanmar since the February 2021 coup, on the security of the Indian states in the northeast, has been highlighted by SAIR earlier. Intelligence reports indicate that nearly 300 cadres of Imphal Valley-based insurgent groups are currently stationed across the India-Myanmar border, and are fighting anti-coup forces on behalf of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army). Once the situation improves in Myanmar, these battle-hardened insurgents could venture into India and create disturbances.
The Security Forces have made tremendous sacrifices to contain a protracted insurgency in Manipur, bringing overall insurgency-linked fatalities down from a peak of 496 in 2008, to a low of seven in 2022. Unless managed with sagacity, the current crisis could draw the state back into chaos again. While the political masters are now trying to douse the flames, significant damage has already been done. It remains to be seen whether the present dispensation at the Centre and in the State will find the necessary political wisdom to restore a sustainable peace to Manipur.
Waziristan - A Long Darkness Sanchita Bhattacharya Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 4, 2023, nine persons, including six Pakistan Army soldiers and three terrorists were killed during a gunfight with terrorists in the Dirduni area of North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
On April 15, 2023, eight terrorists and two soldiers were killed in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Zarmilan area of South Waziristan District in KP. Weapons and ammunition were recovered from the killed terrorists.
On April 8, 2023, two terrorists were shot dead in two different operations in North and South Waziristan. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) disclosed that, in Razmak, North Waziristan, troops effectively engaged the terrorists amidst an intense exchange of fire, leaving one terrorist dead. Security Forces (SFs) also recovered weapons and ammunition from the killed terrorist. Meanwhile, in an encounter between troops and terrorists in the Karama area of South Waziristan, SFs effectively engaged the terrorists, killing one in the shootout, the statement added. One soldier, Naik Fazal Janan, was also killed during the latter shootout.
On April 7, 2023, a Police Constable, Zahidullah, was killed in the Khadikhel Market area in North Waziristan.
On April 5, 2023, eight terrorists and a soldier were killed during an IBO in the Shinwarsak area of South Waziristan District.
On March 31, 2023, a soldier, Sepoy Irsha Ullah, was killed during an exchange of fire with terrorists in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District. According to an ISPR press release, “sanitisation” activity was being carried out to eliminate any terrorists found in the area.
On March 21, 2023, an Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) official, Brigadier Mustafa Kamal Barki, was killed while seven others sustained injuries, during an exchange of fire with terrorists near the Angoor Adda area of South Waziristan District.
On March 15, 2023, eight terrorists and two children were killed and two SF personnel sustained injuries in an exchange of fire during an operation in the Zinghara area of South Waziristan District. Weapons, ammunition, and a cache of equipment were recovered from the killed terrorists.
According to partial data collated by South Asia Terrorism Portal, since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, there have been 122 incidents – 93 in North Waziristan and 29 in South Waziristan – in which 341 people have been killed, so far (data till May 7, 2023). Of the 341 killed, 244 were killed in North Waziristan (16 civilians, 89 SF personnel, 139 terrorists), and the remaining 97 in South Waziristan (11 civilians, 27 SF personnel and 59 terrorists).
Waziristan is named after the Pashtun Wazir or Waziri tribe. The region is a mountainous stretch in northwest Pakistan, bordering Afghanistan, divided into two districts: North Waziristan and South Waziristan. North Waziristan comprises the area west and south-west of Peshawar, between the Tochi River to the north and the Gomal River to the south, with its District Headquarters at Miran Shah. South Waziristan is bounded to the north by North Waziristan, to the north-east by Bannu and Lakki Marwat Districts, to the east by Tank and Dera Ismail Khan Districts, to the south by the Zhob District of Balochistan Province and Dera Ismail Khan District, and to the west by Afghanistan. Wana is District Headquarters of South Waziristan.
The volatile mix of terrorism and tribal affinities in the region is not a post 9/11 phenomenon; the mountains of Waziristan were long used as a base by mujahideen ('holy warriors') during the Afghan Wars against the Soviet occupation. The fighters, including a multi-national force drawn from across the Muslim world, had been armed and trained by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). When the Russians withdrew, many of those fighters settled down in Waziristan and became part of the local population. However, after 9/11, when the US Operation Enduring Freedom commenced in Afghanistan in 2001, the Shawal Valley of North Waziristan and the Shakai Valley of South Waziristan, provided shelter to fleeing terrorists from Afghanistan. Between 2001 and 2010, the Pakistani Army conducted several operations in Waziristan to flush out militants: Operation Al Mizan (The Balance) in 2002; Operation Zalzala (Earthquake) in 2008 and Operation Rah-e-Nijaat (The Path to Salvation) in 2009, but with little success. There was a dramatic escalation in terrorism after the emergence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, in the wake of the siege of the Red Mosque in Islamabad in 2007, even as terrorist attacks increasingly turned inwards, creating unprecedented challenges for Pakistani Security Forces. Things began to change with the launch of operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet), on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the attack on the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, on June 8-9, 2014. After the start of Zarb-e-Azb, a July 7, 2014, report claimed that up to 80 per cent of terrorists fled after rumours of an Army assault emerged in early May, most of them across the porous border into Afghanistan. Zarb-e-Azb officially ended on April 18, 2016. After, the end of Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistan military launched Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord) on February 22, 2017. Similarly, a March 8, 2017, report had confirmed that many terrorists managed to escape, slipping across the border into eastern Afghanistan.
A January 31, 2023, report described how local populations were once again experiencing the heavy Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) presence in Waziristan, and how the region had become heavily militarized. Historically, Waziristan has been at the centre of TTP attacks and brutal security operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the erstwhile Federally Administrated Tribal Region (FATA), which was merged into KP in 2018. Locals blamed the influx of TTP fighters from Afghanistan, as the Afghan Taliban was now controlling the many security checkpoints at night.
Interestingly, as reported on April 10, 2023, Pakistan’s fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) rejected the National Security Council’s decision to resume military operations in the tribal areas. In its 41st meeting, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the chair, the National Security Council approved military operations to flush out the banned TTP terrorists from the tribal areas. On April 9, the Jamaat-e-Islami Lower South Waziristan Chapter staged a protest in Wana Bazaar and took out a rally. The protest demonstration was led by JI District President, Mohammad Nadeem Wazir, General Secretary Asadullah, and included other leaders, prominently, Saif ur Rehman, Mumtaz Khalil and Umar Wazir.
Earlier, on December 23, 2022, the Police declared South and North Waziristan, along with Districts of Lakki Marwat and Bannu, 'terrorist trouble spots'. Additional Inspector General of Police (operations) Mohammad Ali Babakhel stated,
The constant threat and insecure environment of the Waziristan area has had direct impact on various other dimensions. For Instance, due to the dangerous security situation in the Waziristan region, the polio inoculation campaign has been delayed. As reported on January 20, 2023, no polio campaign had been conducted in the Mehsud belt of South Waziristan for the preceding six months, as it was not ‘allowed’ by the terrorists. Shahzad Baig, National Coordinator, Emergency Operation Center, disclosed that 99 per cent of women in Pakistan's North and South Waziristan had not been included in the polio teams. He called frontline workers an asset to the campaign and stressed that there was dire need to improve the security situation to allow them to function. As many as 20 polio cases had been reported till September 2022, 17 of these from the North Waziristan District. As of 2022, just two countries in the world remain affected by the polio virus – Pakistan and Afghanistan, principally because the polio vaccination campaigns are violently resisted by Islamist terrorists and extremists, with vaccination teams and their security details coming under repeated lethal attacks.
Moreover, an April 21, 2023, report underlined the abysmal condition of the education sector in North and South Waziristan, with derelict school buildings and the non-availability of teaching and other staff. Hundreds of students are forced to leave schools as no classes are conducted. Books and stationery are also unavailable.
There have also been violent terrorist attacks on schools, for example, on December 1, 2022, one man was killed and a security official was injured in an attack on the Army Public School for Girls in the Azam Warsak area of South Waziristan. Terrorists opened fire from a nearby mountain during Parents’ Day celebrations at the school. However, the students, parents, staff and security personnel who were present inside the school at the time of the attack, remained unhurt.
The terrorists have also been involved in cases of kidnapping and extortion in Waziristan. On January 21, 2023, SFs recovered all the four abducted employees of a private petroleum exploration company and killed four terrorists in an IBO at Khatti village in North Waziristan. The petroleum exploration company had been engaged in oil and gas exploration in the Speenwam and Shawa areas of North Waziristan. In February 2021, four workers of the same company were abducted and later released, reportedly, after payment of the ransom. According to Police, as reported on January 22, 2023, “In 2021, terrorists carried out five attacks on the company employees in which three people were killed. Last year, four people were killed in two attacks.” Earlier on December 24, 2022, dead bodies of three members of an abducted family were also recovered by Police from the Manra area of Birmil Tehsil (revenue unit) in South Waziristan.
The security situation in both North and South Waziristan is precarious. With increased military operations and escalating terrorist activities, the region is once again at the vortex of violence and instability. The dominant presence of the Afghan Taliban across the Durand and its ideological affinity and tacit support to the TTP, Pakistan is bound to experience a grim situation in coming months.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia May 1-7, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
Telangana
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Violence against Journalists increased by 64 per cent, says AFJC: On May 2, Afghanistan Journalists Center (AFJC) reported on the deteriorating situation of media in Afghanistan - adding violence cases against journalists have increased by 64 percent in the past year. The report says that the findings of AFJC indicate that over the past 12 months (May 2022- May 2023), at least 213 incidents of violence, threats, and detention of journalists have been recorded in the country. The violent incidents include one death, 21 injuries, six physical harassments, 115 threats, arrest of 70 journalists, out of which at least two reporters (Murtaza Behbudi and Khairullah Parhar) are still in Taliban custody. The centre has also stated that the media situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime has had a negative process - adding after the overthrow of the previous government in August 2021, roughly half of 600 media outlets have ceased operation due to economic problems and restrictions imposed by the ruling regime. The Khaama Press News Agency, May 3, 2023.
UN continues to keep Afghan female employees working from home after Taliban's ban: The United Nations (UN) on May 5 stated it will continue to keep Afghan female employees working from home after Taliban enforced the ban on Afghan women working for the organization. Taliban administration's crackdown on Afghan women and girls has adversely affected the inflow and distribution of humanitarian aid to the people of Afghanistan and overall funding has decreased. The Khaama Press News Agency, May 6, 2023
It is not the right time to engage with Taliban, says UN chief: Antonio Guterres, United Nations (UN) Secretary-General said on May 2 that it is not the right time for him to directly engage with the Taliban (Afghan rulers). Speaking during the last day of an international conference on Afghanistan organised by the UN in Doha (Qatar), in which representatives of some 20 countries participated, he said, "The meeting was about developing a common international approach, not about recognition of the de facto Taliban authorities. Let me be crystal clear: we will never be silent in the face of unprecedented systemic attacks on women's and girls' rights. We'll always speak out when millions of women and girls are being silenced and erased from sight." He also said that UN will stay in Afghanistan to deliver life-saving aid to millions of desperate Afghans despite the Taliban's restrictions on female employees, and the limited funding the organization is faced with. Al Jazeera, The Khaama Press News Agency, May 2, 2023.
Afghan women and civil society demands justice from World leaders: In reaction to the Doha meeting, where the United Nations (UN) along with other countries are talking about recognizing the Taliban, 21 Afghan civil society and women's organizations have written a letter to world leaders titled "Talk to Me, Not About Me." The letter states, "We urge the UN to immediately cancel all its plans, even if they are small steps towards recognizing an illegitimate regime that systematically violates the human rights of all Afghans and its actions are crimes against humanity." They have emphasized that all necessary actions should be taken to prosecute the Taliban leaders for serious crimes against the people of Afghanistan, especially against women and girls. This should include cooperation with the International Criminal Court to bring the Taliban leaders and officials accused of crimes under international law to justice. Hasht e Subh Daily, April 22, 2023.
37 persons killed in ethnic clashes in Manipur: Security advisor, Manipur Government, stated on May 7, 2023, Kuldeep Singh, stated on May 7, 2023, that 37 people have died in the ethnic clashes in the state that erupted on May 3. He added that current situation has improved a lot. Earlier, on May 6, he had stated that action would be taken up against all those who had taken the law into their hands, including groups that were under Suspension of Operations agreements. Ani News, Indian Express, May 7, 2023.
Five soldiers killed in Jammu and Kashmir: On May 5, five soldiers of Indian Army's Special Forces were killed and an officer was injured when militants triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast with remote control at Kesari Hills forests in Kandi area in Rajouri District. The incident occurred during a combing operation by the Security Forces (SFs) against the April 20, 2023 Poonch attack perpetrators, who killed five soldiers in an ambush. The People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), an offshoot of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terror group, claimed responsibility for the killings. Daily Excelsior, May 6, 2023.
Centre blocks 14 apps used for spreading terror in J&K: Following recommendations by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), the Union Government instructed service providers on May 1 to ban 14 applications in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), which have been used by terrorist organizations in the region. These apps were used by militants in Kashmir to communicate with their supporters and Over Ground Workers (OGW). "Agencies keep track of channels used by OGWs and militants to communicate among themselves. While tracking down one of the communication, agencies found that the mobile application does not have representatives in India and it is difficult to track down activities happening on the app," said an official. The banned apps include Crypviser, Enigma, Safeswiss, Wickrme, Mediafire, Briar, BChat, Nandbox, Conion, IMO, Element, Second line, Zangi, and Threema. Daily Excelsior, May 1, 2023.
PFI attempted to pass off suspicious donations as legitimate, claims ED: The Enforcement Directorate's (ED) investigation into donations received by Popular Front of India (PFI) in 2018-19 has uncovered attempts to portray suspicious transactions as legitimate credits, with details missing in several cases. The income tax department cancelled PFI's registration due to discrepancies in the sources of deposits in its bank accounts, and the ED suspects PFI was raising funds through a network in Gulf countries and through banking channels, hawala (illegal money transfer) and donations both in India and abroad. Hindustan Times, May 3, 2023.
120 Policemen killed in the Province during the first four months of 2023, says KP Police report: As many as 120 policemen were killed and 333 others sustained injuries in 77 terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) during the first four months of 2023, revealed KP Police report released on May 1. According to the report, terrorists conducted 77 attacks on Policemen in KP during this period, including 24 in Bannu, 23 in Dera Ismail Khan and 15 in Peshawar. Peshawar recorded highest Police fatalities, 88; followed by Malakand, 12; Bannu, 11; and three Policemen lost their lives in Dera Ismail Khan. Ary News, May 1, 2023.
Attacks on journalists rise by 62.79 per cent in Pakistan over the past year, reveals Press Freedom Report: According to Press Freedom Report, prepared by Freedom Network Pakistan, released ahead of World Press Freedom Day celebrated on May 3, at least 140 cases of threats and attacks against journalists, media professionals and media organisations were reported in Pakistan over the past year. The report noted that the country's media environment became riskier and more violent in recent months, as the number of attacks surged to 140 between May 2022 and March 2023 from 86 in 2021-22, an increase of 62.79 per cent. Islamabad emerges as riskiest place with 56 of 140 cases, followed by Punjab and Sindh. The Nation, May 2, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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