South Asia Terrorism Portal

INDIA

Arunachal Pradesh: Corridor Insurgencies
Mutum Kenedy Singh
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 9, 2023, a militant of the Niki Sumi-led faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K-NS), Jangwang Tangjang, surrendered before Security Forces (SFs) in the Tirap District of Arunachal Pradesh.

On January 27, 2023, a militant of the Isak-Muivah faction of the NSCN (NSCN-IM), Ngamnya Wangsa, surrendered before the Executive Magistrate in Tirap District. Wangsa, a resident of Longbo village in the Khonsa Circle of Tirap District, laid down one .32 mm pistol with a magazine and two live rounds.

These are the two incidents of surrender reported in 2023, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). 27 insurgents surrendered in in the State in 2022: NSCN (faction not identified), 14; NSCN-IM, five; the Yung Aung-led faction of NSCN-K (NSCN-K-YA), three; National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Unification (NSCN-U), two; All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), two; National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Reformation (NSCN-R), one.

There were 41 surrenders in 2021: NSCN-K-YA, 13; NSCN-K, eight; NSCN-IM and NSCN-R, five each; NSCN-U, four; Eastern Naga National Government (EENG), three; Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khango Konyak (NSCN-K2), United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I), one each. The group identity of one surrendered cadre could not be ascertained. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the Northeast, 188 insurgents have surrendered in Arunachal Pradesh.

Meanwhile, on February 28, 2023, the Assam Rifles Khonsa Battalion, in a joint operation with the Police, arrested a militant of the NSCN-IM, identified as Nali Homnyu Nyamtey, along with weapons from Noglo village in Tirap District. He was said to be involved in threatening locals and village leaders in Noglo and Laju circle of Tirap District, creating an  atmosphere of fear in the area.

On February 27, 2023, SFs arrested an unidentified militant of NSCN-IM, who was part of an extortion racket, from the premises of the State Bank of India in Longding District. The arrested militant confessed to his involvement in illegal extortion on behalf of NSCN-IM.

According to the SATP database, five insurgents have been arrested in the state in 2023 (data till March 12, 2023). These include three NSCN-IM cadres and two cadres of NSCN-K-YA. In 2022, 38 insurgents were arrested: NSCN-K-YA, 13; NSCN-IM and ULFA-I, six each; People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak-Red Army (PREPAK-RA), five; ENNG, four; NSCN-U, three; and NSCN-R, one. There were 76 arrests in 2021. The arrested cadres belonged to NSCN-IM and NSCN-K-YA, 19 each; NSCN-R, 15; ENNG, 11; ULFA-I, three; NSCN-U, two; NSCN-K-NS, NSCN-K and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), one each. Since March 6, 2020, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the northeast a total of 691 insurgents have been arrested in the state (data till March 12, 2023)

Though no insurgent killing has been reported so far in the current year, three insurgents were killed in 2022. Two of them belonged to NSCN-IM and one was an over-ground worker of the NSCN-K-YA. In 2021, seven insurgents were killed: five cadres of NSCN-KYA, one cadre of Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK) and one cadre of NSCN-R. Since March 6, 2020, 172 insurgents have been killed in the state (data till March 12, 2023).

On the other hand, 37 SF personnel have been killed in the state since March 6, 2000. The last SF killing was reported on May 22, 2021, when one Assam Rifles trooper was killed during an encounter with insurgents near Longvi village, near the Indo-Myanmar border, in Changlang District.

Indeed, SFs have maintained dominance on the ground, providing a relatively secure environment for civilians. 30 civilians have been killed in such violence since March 6, 2000, including one in 2022. On October 9, 2022, suspected NSCN-KYA militants killed a businessman, Atar Singh Sharma (40), in Longding District.

The insurgency in Arunachal Pradesh is a spillover from other states of Northeast India, such as Assam, Nagaland and Manipur, which continue to disproportionately affect three Districts of Arunachal Pradesh – Tirap, Changlang and Longding (TCL) – all lying on the Indo-Myanmar border. Arunachal Pradesh continues to be used as a transit route by various militant groups, whose camps are situated in the Sagaing Region of Myanmar. The Noa Dihing river flowing through Changlang District in Eastern Arunachal Pradesh acts as a navigational aid for the movement of these rebels.

TCL remains the ‘axis’ of conflict in the state. This is attested to by the fact that, of the 239 insurgency-linked fatalities in the state since March 6, 2000, 183 fatalities were reported from the TCL region. The last confirmed fatality outside this ‘axis’ was reported from Namsai District, on January 24, 2018, when an Army trooper was killed in a militant ambush on a military convoy in the Nangtaw Khamti area of Namsai District.

The NSCN-K-YA is currently not engaged in peace talks, nor has it signed a ceasefire agreement, with the Government of India (GoI). It continues to fight for ‘Naga sovereignty’ in both India and Myanmar, and is currently the most active militant outfit in the TCL region.  Yung Aung has also struck up a friendship with ULFA-I ‘chief’ Paresh Baruah, and the two militant outfits operate in cohesion. Some of the operations by the two groups in 2022 included:

August 9: Suspected ULFA-I and NSCN-K-YA militants attacked a newly built Army camp at Pangsu Pass, near the India-Myanmar border, in Changlang District, injuring a junior commission officer (JCO) of the Indian Army.

May 9: The president of Pumao village, Alai Wangsu, was abducted at gunpoint by two NSCN-K-YA militants from Pumao village in Longding District.

May 8: The Gaon Burah (village headman), Napho Boham of Lauksim village, was kidnapped by suspected militants of NSCN-K-YA from Longding District. The Gaon Burah, is believed to have been kidnapped at gunpoint by militants coming from the Mon District of Nagaland.

More worryingly, though the NSCN-IM is engaged in peace talks with the GoI, it continues to engage in unlawful activities in Arunachal Pradesh.

For instance, Ngamnya Wangsa, the militant arrested on February 27, 2023, confessed that he was involved in illegal extortion in Longding District on behalf of the NSCN-IM. Earlier, on March 6, 2022, a gun battle took place between the NSCN-IM and the 6^th Assam Rifles in the area between Kapu and Bera villages in Tirap District. This encounter was resulted after NSCM-IM militants made extortion demands from the road construction agency based in the village.

On September 30, 2022, to contain and neutralize the activities of these insurgent groups, the Union Government extended the 'disturbed area' status of these three Districts for another six months. The notification read,

Moreover, there are ethnic insecurities among 'locals', primarily due to a fear of losing political dominance and socio-economic benefits. Three clear instances of such insecurities are the local opposition to the demand for a Permanent Resident Certificate by six communities (Ahom, Deoris, Sonowal, Kacharis, Morans, Adivasis and Mishing) living in the Lohit, Namsai and Changlang Districts of the State; the persistent objection of the indigenous groups on giving permanent resident status to the Chakma and Hajong refugees settled in Arunachal Pradesh; and the opposition by a section of the Yobin community to the renewal of lease agreements for ex-servicemen's families (mostly Gorkhas) settled in the Vijaynagar area of Changlang District, and their participation in Panchayat elections.

The most egregious socio-political issue prevailing in the state is that of the issuance and withdrawal of “residence proof certificates” to the Chakma Hajong communities residing in the state. These communities are considered ‘refugees’ from Bangladesh, and not natives of Arunachal Pradesh. Indigenous communities of the state have been demanding the ouster of Chakmas and Hajongs from the state since the 1990s. The All–Arunachal Pradesh Students Union (AAPSU) has been demanding their resettlement somewhere else and has spearheaded mass movements against granting citizenship to the two communities. On August, 2022, the Arunachal Pradesh government announced that it would no longer be issuing “residence proof certificates” to the state’s Chakma and Hajong refugees. These documents attest to people’s place of residence and are necessary for education, employment and government schemes. The state government’s decision to suspend the issuance of these certificates was an outcome of a stir by the All–Arunachal Pradesh Students’ Union (AAPSU).

Around 65,000 Chakmas and Hajongs, who are residents of the state, vehemently protested this decision by the state government and interpreted such a decision as majoritarian appeasement and vote bank politics. Persistent protests by the Chakmas and the Hajongs led to the state government announcing, in December 2022, that the residential proof certificates would be replaced by temporary settlement certificates. However, the agitators refused to budge, and the non-cooperation movement continued.

These complex socio-political issues are likely to continue driving a wedge, based on the insider/outsider dichotomy, between the various communities living in the state.

Maintaining peace and stability in Arunachal Pradesh is critically important due to its geostrategic location on the trijunction with three countries: Bhutan, China and Myanmar. Though insurgency-related fatalities have declined significantly, the state continues to face persisting threats from the spillover of the ‘residual’ insurgencies of other states in the Northeast, and the militant sanctuaries in neighboring Myanmar. Sustained counterinsurgency operations against Naga insurgent groups and ULFA-I in TCL areas are necessary to neutralize this threat. There is also a need to engage politically with the ethnic and student bodies leading various protests, so that their apprehensions are properly addressed and the potential for future trouble is checked. A critical external threat, moreover, is Chinese geo-political ambitions in the state, which needs to be effectively countered by a proliferation of critical logistics and military infrastructure in the border regions. 

INDIA

Maharashtra: Maoist Downfall
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 9, 2023, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres shot dead a tribal youth, Sainath Narote (26), at Mardhur village in the Bhamragarh Taluka (administrative division) in Gadchiroli District. The Maoists picked him up from his house on the suspicion that he was a Police informant and shot him dead.

This is the lone incident of Left Wing Extremist (LWE)-linked killing in Maharashtra in 2023, thus far (data till March 12).

Five civilians were killed through 2022 in Maharashtra. There were four such killings in 2021. According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism-linked violence across the country, a total of 197 such killings have been documented in the state, including a high of 36 civilian fatalities recorded in 2011.

Security Forces (SFs) have not suffered any loss over the past two years. The last fatality recorded in this category was on August 14, 2020, when a Police constable was killed and another constable was injured when a CPI-Maoist ‘action team’ opened fire at them in a market at Kothi village under the Bhamragarh Taluka in Gadchiroli District. Meanwhile, another two fatalities were recorded in 2020, bringing the tally of SF fatalities to three through 2020. Fatalities in the SF category recorded a high of 52 in 2009. A total of 170 such killings have been documented since March 6, 2000.

SFs neutralised at least two Maoists in 2022, in addition to 49 in 2021. A high of 51 Maoist fatalities was recorded in 2018. Since March 6, 2000, a total of 321 such killings have been documented in the state.

Significantly, in 2020, the SF:Maoist kill ratio was 1:3. The most positive SF:Maoist kill ratio, 1:25.5,  favouring the SFs, was registered in 2018. The overall SF:Maoist kill ratio in the state since 2000 has favoured the SFs at 1:1.88.

Meanwhile, in 2022, SFs arrested 13 Naxalites (LWEs), in addition to nine such arrests in 2021, according to the SATP database. Since March 6, 2000, the total number of arrests stands at 474. Ongoing SF pressure also yielded the surrender of eight Naxalites each in 2022 and 2021. Since March 6, 2000, total surrenders stand at 288. On September 21, 2022, two CPI-Maoist cadres, identified as Anil aka Ramsay Jagdeo Kujur (26) of Maharashtra, and Roshani aka Irape Narango Paollo (30), of Chhattisgarh, carrying a total reward of INR 600,000, surrendered in Gadchiroli District.

Not surprisingly, other parameters of violence also indicate a declining trend in Maoist activities in the State, as in all other Maoist-affected regions across the country. The State did not record any major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) in 2022, as well as in 2021. The last major incident was recorded on May 1, 2019, when at least 15 SF personnel of the C-60 Force, the Maharashtra Police counter-insurgency commando unit, and one civilian driver were killed in an ambush by CPI-Maoist cadres, who triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) on the Dadapur Road near Lendali Nullah in Jamburkheda village under Kurkheda Police Station limits in Gadchiroli District.

Further, the State did not record any incident of explosion in 2022, as well as in 2021. The last incident of explosion was the May 1, 2019, ambush targeting C-60 personnel.

Moreover, incidents of exchange of fire between the rebels and SFs fell from seven in 2021 to three in 2022. Overall Maoist-linked incidents fell from 29 in 2021 to 27 in 2022. Incidents of killing also fell from nine in 2021 to seven in 2022.

Meanwhile, a September 25, 2022, report, indicated that the Naxalite footprint in Gadchiroli, one of the two districts in the state that have historically struggled with Left Wing Extremism, is shrinking, with a significant drop recorded in their activities over the past five years. Taking a note of the development, Gadchiroli, Superintendent of Police (SP) Ankit Goyal noted,

The District Police chief attributed this to factors such as better administrative outreach, rising confidence in the administration, and improved infrastructure. Goyal thus noted, further,

Moreover, Goyal also claimed that senior Naxalite leaders, identified as Girdhar, Prabhakar and Rupesh, were now confined to the south Gadchiroli region.

Meanwhile, struggling to make their presence felt, the Maoists warned the residents of 13 villages under the Pursalgondi gram panchayat (village level local self-government institution) in Etapalli Taluka in Gadchiroli District, against working at the Surjagarh mines. In the meeting held near Targoda village in the district from February 20–26, 2023, Maoist leaders such as Raghu and Giridhar urged the residents of 13 villages not to work at the mining site. They also told women workers to stop going to a sewing unit, which has been set up by Surjagarh Mines and Minirals Pvt. Ltd., as part of its corporate social responsibility programme. They also asked the villagers to have at least one member of each family join the large-scale agitation being planned by them.

Moreover, according to a March 6, 2023, report, Maoist leaders such as ‘divisional committee member’ Vikas aka Anil Nagpure of Malajkhand Dalam, ‘commander’ Sangita aka Kavita Pandhare of Tanda Dalam, and ‘divisional committee member’ Devchand aka Chandu of Darekasa Dalam, were trying to make a comeback.

Not surprisingly, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) notification of June 19, 2021 categorised Gadchiroli District as the "most affected LWE district" of Maharashtra, among the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ across eight Indian states. In addition, Gadchiroli and Gondia Districts are covered under the ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which underwrites focused operations against the Naxalites in 70 LWE-affected districts in 10 states across the country. An analysis of overground and underground Maoist activities in Maharashtra confirms that Maoist activities were reported from only two districts in 2022. Only the Gadchiroli District fell in the ‘moderately affected’ category, while Gondia remained ‘marginally affected.' In 2021, too, Gadchiroli was in the ‘moderately affected’ category and Gondia in the "marginally affected" category. Maharashtra has a total of 36 districts.

However, critical security gaps in capacities and force deployment persist in the state. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as of January 1, 2021, the sanctioned strength for the States’ Police is 238,463, but only 199,508 personnel were in position, yielding a vacancy of 38,955 (16.33 percent). Further, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometers) for Maharashtra is 64.84, as against the sanctioned strength of 77.50. The all-India ratio is 62.96, as against a sanction of 80.07 per 100 square kilometers. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) officers in the state is 317, but just 278 officers were in position, with 39 posts vacant, considerably weakening the executive supervision of the force.

Though SFs have ensured a relatively safe environment for civilians, the residual capacities of the rebels cannot simply be ignored. Unless the threat of LWE is completely eradicated, residual risks will persist, and the possibility of revival of weakened or dormant rebel forces can never be ruled out.