South Asia Terrorism Portal
Towards Dynastic Rule S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Mahinda Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP, Sri Lanka People’s Front) has swept the August 5, 2020, Parliamentary Elections. SLPP received 6,853,693 votes (59.09 percent) and secured 128 electoral seats. The Sajith Premadasa-led Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB, United National Power), the breakaway faction of the former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe-led United National Party (UNP), came in second with 2,771,984 votes (23.90 percent) wining 47 electoral seats. The Anura Kumara Dissanayake-led Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB, National People’s Power) got 445,958 votes (3.84 percent) winning two electoral seats. The Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), the main constituent party of Tamil National Alliance (TNA), got 327,168 votes (2.82 percent) winning nine electoral seats. The UNP came at a distant fifth place receiving only 249,435 votes (2.15 percent) and it failed to secure even a single electoral seat. Former Prime Minister Wickremesinghe himself lost the election.
The Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress got 67,766 votes (0.58 percent) and one seat; Our Power of People Party got 67,758 votes (0.58 percent) but failed to secure even a single electoral seat; Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal, 67,692 votes (0.58 percent), one seat; Sri Lanka Freedom Party, 66,579 votes (0.57 percent), one seat; Eelam People’s Democratic Party, 61,464 votes (0.53 percent), two seats; Muslim National Alliance got 55,981 votes (0.48 percent), one seat, Thamil Makkal Thesiya Kuttani, 51,301 votes (0.44 percent), one seat; All Ceylon Makkal Congress, 43,319 votes (0.37 percent), one seat; National Congress, 39,272 votes (0.34 percent), one seat; and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, 34,428 votes (0.30 percent), one seat.
On August 5, 2020, Sri Lanka’s 9th Parliamentary Elections were held at 12,985 polling stations across the country under strict health guidelines amid the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Election Commission (EC), 71 percent of eligible voters out of 16,263,885 voters cast their ballot to elect 196 lawmakers. A total of 7,452 candidates from 40 recognized political parties and 313 independent groups contested the election.
The 225-member Parliament has 196 elected members and 29 members are elected from a national list according to the number of votes received by the respective parties or independent groups. According to the August 5 results, out of the 29 national list seats, SLPP gets 17; SJB, 7; JJB, ITAK, UNP, Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress and Our Power of People Party, one seat each.
The Director of the Police Elections Division Senior Superintendent of Police Ashoka Dharmasena, at a special media briefing, stated that the election was held peacefully. However, according to Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), an independent non-partisan organization, 340 incidents of election-related violations, including 63 incidents of intimidation/assault/influencing, were reported on Election Day. Between March 2 (the day of the dissolution of the 8th Parliament) and August 2, 2020, (the day the 'silent period', with no canvassing or political activity preceding the General Election, came into effect), the CMEV reported 1,101 incidents of election-related violations, including 55 incidents of assault/threats/hate speech. CMEV did not report any incident of election-related violations on August 3 and 4. However, Sri Lanka's oldest election monitoring group, the People's Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), reported 37 incidents of election-related violations, including two assault incidents on August 3; and 120 incidents of election-related violations, including two assault incidents and one incident of attack on Political Party/Candidate Office on August 4.
In the last Parliamentary Elections held on August 17, 2015, the voter turnout was 77.66 per cent. However, the voters gave a fractured mandate, with none of the parties securing a simple majority. UNP, led by the then incumbent Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, secured 106 seats, falling seven short of a simple majority in a 225-member House; the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) secured just 95 seats. The main Tamil political party, the TNA won 16 seats; and the main Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP, People's Liberation Front) won six. However, following a historic agreement on August 20, 2015, between UNP and SLFP to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the incumbent Prime Minister Wickremesinghe took the oath as the 26thPrime Minister of the island nation on August 21, 2015. According to CMEV, between June 26, 2015, midnight, when the elections were notified, and August 14, 2015, when the campaigning officially ended, it registered 143 'major incidents' across the country. ‘Major incidents’ included murder, injuries, assaults, threat and intimidation, misuse of state resources, robbery, arson, abduction, damage to property, etc.
However, in a political slugfest, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was sacked on October 26, 2018, and Mahinda Rajapaksa became the Prime Minister. Ranil Wickremesinghe was sacked by Maithripala Sirisena, who became President after winning the Presidential Elections held on January 8, 2015, defeating the incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa. President Sirisena, realizing that his de facto Prime Minister, Rajapaksa, would not command a majority in Parliament, announced the dissolution of Parliament with effect from November 9, midnight, in an extraordinary Gazette notification, and scheduled General Elections to be held on January 5, 2019. However, exactly 34 days later, on December 13, 2018, the Supreme Court (SC) of Sri Lanka ruled, that President Sirisena's decision was illegal and unconstitutional. After the SC ruling, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn-in on December 16, 2018, for a fifth time, as the Prime Minister, ending a nearly two-month long political crisis. However, his Government did not last long, and Mahinda Rajpaksa became the Prime Minister again on November 21, 2019.
The five-year term of the 8thParliament was due to expire in August 2020. Paving the way for General Elections, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who is Mahinda Rajapaksa’s younger brother, who won the Presidential Election, held on November 16, 2019, on the SLPP ticket. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa dissolved the eight Parliament on March 2, 2020. According to the Gazette Notification, the Parliamentary Elections were to be held on April 25, 2020, and the new Parliament was to meet on May 14, 2020. However, considering the uncertain situation prevalent in the country with the spread of COVID-19, on March 19, 2020, the EC postponed the General Election indefinitely. However, on April 20, 2020, the EC decided to hold the Parliamentary Elections on June 20, 2020.
Meanwhile, several Fundamental Rights petitions were filed in the Supreme Court requesting the court to issue an injunction against holding the General Elections on June 20. On June 1, 2020, the Supreme Court dismissed the Fundamental Rights petitions filed challenging the holding of the General Election on June 20. Pronouncing the ruling, the Chief Justice Jayantha Jayasuriya announced "By majority decision, preliminary objections are overruled. By unanimous decision, Leave to Proceed is refused for all applications.”
On June 3, 2020, the Health Ministry handed over health guidelines in connection with holding the General Election to the EC. Finally, following several rounds of discussions with the Health and Security authorities and other stakeholders, on June 10, 2020, the EC announced that the General Election 2020 would be held on August 5, 2020.
With the SLPP winning 145 seats, just five short of a 2/3rd majority, there is strong probability of the Government overturning several of the decisions taken by the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led National Unity Government.
The focus is on the 19th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, which the party has promised to scrap. Significantly, speaking about the 19th Amendment to the Constitution on December 29, 2019, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa observed,
On March 5, 2020, President Gotabaya called for a two-third majority in the Parliamentary Election, declaring that the 19th Amendment to the Constitution had taken away the people's freedom and questioned the meaning of the Constitution, as it circumscribed the powers of the President elected by the people. The 19th Amendment reduced the presidential term from six to five years and the two-term limit was restored. The President could no longer dissolve Parliament until the expiration of four and a half years of its term, unless he was requested to do so by a resolution of a two-thirds majority of Parliament. Moreover, the presidential immunity from suit was abridged by extending the Supreme Court's fundamental rights jurisdiction to cover official acts of the President. Meanwhile, on July 31, 2020, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa asserted,
The 19th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution was passed by the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led Government on April 28, 2015, with 215 out of 225 members voting in favour of the amendment to weaken the power of the presidency. The 19th Amendment envisaged the dilution of many powers of the Executive Presidency, which had been in force since 1978. It established a Constitutional Council which exercises some executive powers previously held by the President. It also empowered the Constitutional Council to set up Independent Commissions.
Meanwhile, on January 7, 2020, an official attached to the Justice Ministry disclosed that the Government has decided to review the Office of Missing Person (OMP) Act enacted by Parliament under the preceding regime. The official further stated that a preliminary discussion has already been held and that the Government would review it and decide what needs to be done. OMP was operationalized on March 13, 2018, with the mandate to search for and trace the fate and whereabouts of missing and disappeared persons during the Eelam War between the Government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) which officially ended on May 20, 2009.
Earlier, on February 17, 2020, the Rajapaksa Government decided to immediately withdraw from the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolutions 30/1 and 40/1 co-sponsored in 2015 and 2019. In 2015, the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led Government had co-sponsored the UNHRC resolution, 30/1, making commitments to promote reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka. Renewing the commitments, in 2019, the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led National Unity Government (NUG) co-sponsored UNHRC resolution, 40/1.
The Rajapaksa family’s hold on the Government is much stronger after the Parliamentary Elections. Under Mahinda Rajapaksa’s previous tenure as President (2005-2015), many members of the family occupied senior positions in the Sri Lankan state. The sweeping majority that Mahinda Rajapaksa has now secured in the Parliamentary elections, even as Gotabaya Rajapaksa is President, suggests the possibilities of a consolidating autocracy. On August 9, 2020, Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn as Prime Minister for the fourth time by his younger brother and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
The Ranil Wickremesinghe Government had sought to further the national reconciliation process, though if failed to achieve much of significance. This process is now likely to suffer a major setback.
Jammu and Kashmir: Politics at Risk Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On August 9, 2020, Abdul Hamid Najar, district president of the Budgam Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Other Backward Class Morcha, was shot at and injured by terrorists in the Mohiendpora area of Budgam District. Hamid Najar succumbed to his injuries later.
On August 6, 2020, Sajad Ahmad Khanday, a Sarpanch (head of the Panchayat, village level local self-government institution) affiliated with the BJP, was shot at and injured by terrorists at Vessu in the Qazigund area of Kulgam District. He succumbed to his injuries later. Khanday was fired upon at a distance of 20 metres from a high-security residential complex where he was staying, along with several other sarpanches.
On August 4, 2020, terrorists opened fire and critically injured, Arif Ahmad Shah, a Sarpanch, affiliated with the BJP, near his residence at Akhran Qazigund in Kulgam District.
These incidents occurred following intelligence inputs that terrorists were planning to target elected members of local bodies, especially those affiliated with the BJP, on the eve of the first anniversary of the constitutional amendments that nullified the special status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) under Article 370, and engineered the division of the State and its reduction to two Union Territories.
Earlier, on July 8, 2020, terrorists shot dead Wasim Ahmad Bari, BJP’s Bandipora District President, as well as his father and brother, in Bandipora District.
On June 8, 2020, terrorists shot at and injured Ajay Pandita, a Sarpanch of Halqa Lokbowan in the Larkipora area of Anantnag District and a member of the Indian National Congress (INC), in his native village Lokbawan in Anantnag District. He later succumbed to his injuries.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), J&K has accounted for a total of at least 274 incidents in which terrorists have targeted political leaders/activists since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on conflicts in the erstwhile State (data till August 9, 2020). In these 274 incidents, at least 194 persons have been killed and another 95 persons were injured. Five of these incidents resulting in six killings have been reported in the current year so far.
Significantly, 43 of these 274 incidents have targeted Sarpanches alone, killing 29 and injuring eight others. Three such incidents, resulting in two deaths, have been reported in the current year.
Disclosing the motive behind such attacks in recent past, The Resistance Front (TRF), while claiming the killing of Ajay Pandita on June 8, 2020, had stated,
The TRF further warned,
TRF is a product of the Pakistan Army–Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) attempt to bring all terrorist cadres under one common umbrella and to secure deniability in terms of linkages with terrorist outfits that have long been operating under the ISI’s aegis in J&K.
After the August 5, 2019, constitutional amendments, the then existing State Assembly ceased to exist, bringing an abrupt end to democratic set up at the State-level. Most of the State-level leaders were put ‘under house arrest’ and political activities at the State-level came to a standstill.
In this situation, democratically elected members of the local bodies comprising of Panchayats, Municipal Corporations/Councils/Committees and Block Development Councils, remained the only source through which voices of the people in the Union Territory could reach to the Union Government through democratic means.
The ISI terrorist handlers appear to have realized this very well and terrorist outfits working under their direction have been instructed to target members of the local bodies, as well as local level political leaders and activists. As a result, eight local level political leaders and activists have been killed in seven incidents since August 5, 2019 (data till August 9, 2020).
Through these attacks, the ISI, which has been relentless in its efforts to push J&K back into the turbulent phases of the 1990s and early 2000s, seeks to create fear among the local leaders and to block any mechanisms of political normalization in the Union Territory. These killings also create significant hurdles for the Union Government to hold State Elections in accordance with its promise to reestablish a democratic Government. Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation on August 8, 2019, had asserted,
Also, by singling out the leaders and activists of the BJP in particular, the terrorists are undermining the party’s efforts to establish a stronger presence in the Union Territory. The BJP would also like to take credit for having “full state status restored” just before or after the elections, in order to consolidate some political presence in the Valley, but this is unlikely to occur at a time when many of its grass root level leaders are leaving the party out of fear of being targeted by the terrorists. Moreover, by targeting BJP activists and leaders in particular, the terrorists are sending out a message that even the members of the ruling party in the Centre, which is at the helm in the Union Territory through its ‘representative’ in the form of the Lieutenant Governor, are not safe. Further, the separatist message is reinforced by each such killing at a time when terrorist losses are mounting in the face of focused Security Force (SF) action, and terrorist-initiated operations against SFs have hit rock-bottom.
Though these incidents are a cause for concern, there are visible signs of overall SF consolidation in the Union Territory. After going through a phase of rising violence between 2013 and 2018, the security situation has been brought under control. The number of overall fatalities, which had reached 452 in 2018 – the highest since 2008, at 538 – came down to 283 in 2019. More importantly, civilian fatalities, at 86 in 2018 – the highest since 2007 when at 127 – dropped to 42 in 2019. Fatalities in 2020 currently total 207, including 19 civilians, 34 Security Force personnel, and 154 terrorists (data till August 9). Significantly, terrorist fatalities account for 74.39 per cent of the total of 207 fatalities in 2020, as against 57.6 per cent of 283 fatalities in 2019.
The Centre’s failure to restore some measure of political activity in J&K has the potential to undermine sustained SF successes in the Union Territory. Absent political avenues of grievance redressal, the people see themselves with two polarized options – simply to accept the onerous circumstances currently inflicted on them, or ally with the forces of disruption and take up the gun. The Centre’s efforts to permanently marginalize the established political parties and leaders in the Union Territory and to pivot the BJP into a decisive position militate against the natural political inclinations of the majority, certainly in the Valley.
The SFs have done everything that could be expected of them, and have established clear dominance in the Union Territory. Political and administrative normalization cannot be their mandate. If anything approaching normalcy is to be restored in J&K, the current bull in a china shop approach will have to be replaced by a politics of accommodation and an urgent outreach to restore the confidence of the people. Patterns of violence in J&K have demonstrated repeatedly that terrorists retain a grip only in tiny parts of the Valley, and that in most areas, they no longer find an enabling environment for their operations. For years now, the situation has been ripe for political resolution. Unfortunately, an ideology-driven, polarizing, vengeful, BJP leadership seems to lack the vision or the political incentives to pursue rational policies in J&K. The SFs and the people continue to pay the price.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia August 3-9, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
Nagaland
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Taliban ready to begin peace talks in a week, says Taliban Spokesman Suhail Shaheen: Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen, in an interview with BBC Pashto, said that the Taliban is ready to begin intra-Afghan negotiations within a week if the prisoner release is completed. Shaheen said the first round of talks, expected to be held in Doha, will be led by Abbas Stanikzai, the former chief negotiator of the Taliban during their talks with the United States. Tolo News, August 10, 2020.
Loya Jirga approves the release of 400 Taliban prisoners: On August 9, the Loya Jirga (the grand assembly of Tribal elders) in a resolution approved the release of the 400 Taliban prisoners in an aim to start the intra-Afghan talks and bring about a ceasefire and an end to the nation's war. The resolution, which has 25 articles, was issued at Loya Jirga session. President Ashraf Ghani, former president Hamid Karzai and other political figures have called on the Taliban for an immediate start to the intra-Afghan talks. Tolo News, August 10, 2020.
US will reduce its military presence in Afghanistan to about 4,000 troops "very soon", said US President Donald Trump: US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Axios on HBO, said that the US will reduce its military presence in Afghanistan to about 4,000 troops "very soon". "We are largely out of Afghanistan", President Trump said. "We'll be down in a very short period of time to 8,000, and then we're going to be down to 4,000, we're negotiating right now," Trump added. However, he did not specify any exact time. Tolo News, August 4, 2020.
India raised Dawood Ibrahim at UNSC highlighting terrorism, says report: India raised Dawood Ibrahim's name at the 'High-Level Open Debate of the UN Security Council: Addressing the Issue of Linkages between Terrorism and Organized Crime' on August 6. India highlighted the nexus between international terrorism and organised crime. The greatest example for India is UN-designated terrorist Dawood Ibrahim. India Today, August 10, 2020.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Afghan President Ghani discuss evolving security situation: On August 2, Prime Minister (PM) of India, Narendra Modi held discussion with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani over the evolving security situation in the region. In readout of PM Modi's conversation, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that, PM after exchanging greetings for Eid-ul-Adha with Afghan President Ghani, discussed on the evolving security situation in the region and other areas of mutual bilateral interest. He also spoke about the recent terror attack on an Afghan prison in Nangarhar which killed almost 30 people. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the attack. The Times of India, August 4, 2020.
International Commission of Jurists recommends that Nepal give full shape to inclusive commissions: The International Commission of Jurists has recommended that Nepal give full shape to all its inclusion commissions established by the Constitution and provide adequate financial and human resources to allow them to function in an independent manner. In its report "Human Rights and the Rule of Law in a Federal Nepal", the international non-governmental organisation of judges and lawyers around the world said appointments to the commission should be done with due urgency so that the commissions function as per the spirit of the statute. The Kathmandu Post , August 8, 2020.
NCP Vice-chair Bamdev Gautam breaks rank with Dahal-Nepal faction: Vice-chair of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Bamdev Gautam, who till a few weeks ago was siding with the party's faction led by Co-Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal and senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, on August 5, said he was in no camp. Gautam issued a press statement through his Personal Aide Bishwamani Subedi, saying he was not with any camp within the party. His statement gives some respite to Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who has fallen in minority in the NCP's Standing Committee and Central Committee. The Himalayan Times , August 6, 2020.
Missing Persons Commission disposes of 4,616 cases up till July 30, 2020: Missing Persons Commission has disposed of 4,616 cases up till July 30, 2020, as per monthly progress report released by Farid Ahmed Khan, the Secretary of Commission of Inquiry of Enforced Disappearances (COIOED), on cases of alleged enforced disappearances for the month of July 2020. A total number of 6,686 cases were received by the Commission up until June 2020. During July 2020, 43 more cases were received by the commission and the total numbers of cases reached 6,729. The commission disposed 23 cases in July 2020 and thus total resolved cases as of July 30, 2020 is 4,616, with a balance of 2,113 cases. Pakistan Today, August 4, 2020.
Mahinda Rajapaksa sworn in as Prime Minister of Sri Lanka: The leader of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as the 13th Prime Minister of Sri Lanka before President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on August 9. Elected to the post for the fourth time, Mr. Rajapaksa served two terms as the Executive President of the country from 2005 to 2015. Completing five decades in active politics, Mr. Rajapaksa entered the Parliament in 1970 and he played a pivotal role as a Cabinet Minister during 1995-2004 period. Colombo Page, August 10, 2020.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is waging campaign of fear and intimidation, says HRW report: Human Rights Watch (HRW) in a report on August 8 said that the Sri Lankan Government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is waging a campaign of fear and intimidation against human rights activists, journalists, lawyers, and others challenging Government policy. According to HRW, the crackdown on dissent under the Rajapaksa administration has intensified in recent months, facilitated by the government's highly militarized response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and has included intimidation, death threats, physical assaults, and arbitrary arrests. Colombo Page, August 10, 2020.
SLPP sweeps polls to secure comfortable majority in Parliament: Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) has swept the Parliamentary Elections held on August 5, to elect 196 members to the 225-member Parliament. The SLPP received 6,853,693 votes (59.09 percent) and secured 128 electoral seats and with the 17 national list members has gained 145 seats in the Parliament although just shy of the two-third majority the President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa expected. Colombo Page, August 7, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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