South Asia Terrorism Portal
Turmoil in Helmand Sanchita Bhattacharya Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Several parts of Nawa and Nad Ali Districts of Helmand Province were cleared of the Taliban in the ongoing operation by Afghan Security Forces (SFs), the Ministry of Defense said on October 28, 2020. The operation was launched on October 26, in these two districts as well as in Lashkargah city, the capital of Helmand, to retake the areas that had fallen to the Taliban two weeks ago, a statement by Ministry of Defense read, adding, “More than 100 Taliban fighters were killed and wounded in the operation.”
Earlier, on October 19, Khalil-ur-Rahman, the Helmand Police Chief, stated, “There is the issue of public benefit. The enemy has damaged it. Therefore, we don’t want to harm civilians and we move forward slowly.”
The Taliban attack started on October 10, 2020, in various places of Helmand Province, in a bid to capture Lashkargah, the provincial capital. The militants overran security checkpoints, while a number of Districts including Nad Ali and Nawa also came under attack. Following the Taliban’s push on Lashkargah and the seizure of security checkpoints, the US launched air attacks against the group’s fighters in support of the Afghan SFs. The U.S. Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A), Spokesman Colonel Sonny Leggett tweeted on October 12, “Over the past two days USFOR-A has conducted several targeted strikes in Helmand to defend ANDSF forces under attack by Taliban fighters, consistent with the U.S.-Taliban agreement. USFOR-A has & will continue to provide support in defense of the ANDSF under attack by the Taliban”. Within 24 hours of the attack, the Afghan National Security Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) claimed to have neutralised around 126 terrorists and injured another over 100. Later, on October 18, Colonel Leggett, added on Twitter that “the entire world has witnessed the Taliban’s offensive operations in Helmand – attacks which injured and displaced thousands of innocent Afghan civilians.”
Taliban ‘spokesman’ Mohammad Naeem, however, asserted that the group’s fighters were recapturing districts that were previously under their control but were retaken by Afghan SFs a few months ago. The Taliban controls most of Helmand Province and in recent years has conducted several attacks to capture Lashkargah, but its fighters have been repeatedly pushed back by Afghan SFs.
10 years ago, more than 15,000 Afghan, US, British, Canadian, and Estonian troops made one of the biggest pushes of the war to dislodge the Taliban from the town of Marjah, then the Taliban’s last big stronghold in Helmand. Taliban launched a major offensive following the departure of most of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops at the end of 2014 and by summer 2016, the Taliban controlled or contested 12 of Helmand’s 14 districts. Report also suggests that the Taliban has gained control of roughly 80 per cent of Helmand, mainly the rural areas, while the district centers are still under government control.
Unfortunately, as the fighting intensified and the security situation around Lashkargah deteriorated, tens of thousands of people fled to Kabul city. Afghan authorities estimate that 35,000 people (some 5,000 families) have been displaced by the current fighting. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Afghanistan, however, disclosed that assessment teams were still verifying these figures, with 5,000 people confirmed so far. On October 19, OCHA stated, “Yesterday [October 18], around 300 families or approximately 2,100 people from Nawa-e-Barakzaiy have been newly displaced within Nawa District.” Meanwhile, as reported on October 22, the State Ministry on Disaster Management said that it has allocated 20 million of Afghan currency to address the needs of those affected by the fighting in Helmand. “This (funds) should be distributed among those affected from the war,” said Ghulam Bahauddin Jailani, State Minister on Natural Disaster Management.
Pakistan’s blatant involvement in the escalating violence is an inescapable reality. As reported on October 16, Haqqani Network ‘chief’ Sirajuddin Haqqani is believed to have reached Helmand from Quetta (Balochistan) in Pakistan. Haqqani was sent to Afghanistan on the directions of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for multiple objectives.
First, to assess the situation in Helmand after the coordinated Taliban attack and ensure safe passage to Pakistani terrorists involved in the attack. Another major reason for sending Haqqani is to contact Taliban leaders and negotiate with them about the representation of Pakistan's interests in the peace process. Sirajuddin Haqqani is also scheduled to meet Taliban ‘commander’ Mullah Yaqoub in Helmand. Interestingly, all heads of Commissions of Taliban are presently camping in Helmand itself. Haqqani is scheduled to meet a number of top Taliban ‘commanders’, take them into confidence, and influence them to represent Pakistan's interests during the ongoing peace talks in Doha (Qatar). The most important objective, though, was to motivate Pakistani cadres deployed within terrorist outfits in Afghanistan not to move to Pakistan and to keep fighting from their respective Afghan bases until the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) proceedings are completed, to ensure that Pakistan doesn't get blacklisted.
The propaganda machine of the Taliban, meanwhile, is busy portraying the Haqqani Network as a ‘reformer’. A new documentary tracing the life of Jalaluddin Haqqani (who died in 2018), the founder of the Network, depicts him as a “great reformer”, who fought heroically over four decades, first against the Soviets and then against the Americans. Taliban ‘spokesman’ Zabihullah Mujahid said the film aimed to “introduce” Haqqani as an “icon”. However, in reality, the documentary seeks to rebrand the Haqqani Network, and present it as united with the broader Taliban movement.
Indeed, on October 27, Afghan Chief of Army Staff Yasin Zia stated, “They (the Taliban) have not cut ties with al-Qaeda. They have relations with other terrorist groups in the region and with Pakistanis, they clearly are working shoulder-to-shoulder in Helmand.” Earlier, as reported on October 18, the Governor of Helmand, Yasir Khan had stated, “There is the presence of Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM], Lashkar-e-Taiba [LeT], al-Qaeda... They are collaborating with the Taliban now and in the past too.” Taliban have provided safe places to stay for foreign fighters from these three terrorist groups. In return, these foreign fighters provide training in bomb-making to Taliban fighters. Interestingly, local sources in Pakistan have revealed that hospitals, especially in Quetta, Karachi, and Peshawar, have been filled with Taliban and JeM militants injured during gunfights with Afghan and US security forces since the Taliban offensive of October 10.
It is clear that the Taliban as well as Pakistan are in aggressive mode and are expected to increase violence in Afghanistan. The release of Taliban prisoners and subsequent return to the battlefield by some of them and the infiltration of rising numbers of Pakistani cadres into Afghan terrorist formations, have added to the ongoing violence.
Pakistan’s stakes in the narcotics trade of Afghanistan add to the greater significance of Helmand, which is one of the main poppy-growing areas in Afghanistan. Opium poppies and heroin are among the main sources of income for the Taliban, which controls 80 per cent of the drug production areas in Afghanistan. Pakistan acts as a facilitator in transporting the drugs out of Afghanistan, in processing, and in further distribution to other countries. The drug consignments, in connivance with Pakistan’s authorities, are smuggled through the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, and thereafter, head for Pakistan’s air and seaports and to further destinations in China, South and Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
Apart from its determination to retain and extend territorial control, the Taliban assault in Helmand seeks to exert added pressure on Kabul to accept the Taliban’s demands during ongoing negotiations in Doha. Moreover, Pakistan wants to ensure that the terrorist groups supporting its cause make deep inroads into Afghanistan so that, if the Taliban returns to political power, Islamabad will retain its ‘strategic depth’ to ensure that the regime serves Islamabad’s interests in the long run.
Clearly, with the progressive withdrawal of Western forces, circumstances in Afghanistan are developing towards a continuous escalation of violence, and the negotiations in Doha are little more than a charade that provides the Taliban with an unacceptable degree of international legitimacy, even as its violence worsens dramatically.
Northeast Border Disputes Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Decades-old inter-state border disputes, which have the potential to provide new spaces to terrorist formations, threatening the tenuous peace in India’s troubled Northeast, have once again come to the fore.
The Assam-Mizoram border flared up on October 9, 2020, when, according to Mizoram Government, officials of the Karimganj District, Assam’s Forest Department and Assam Police set ablaze a farmhouse owned by John Zolawma of Thinghlun village in Mizoram’s Mamit District, along the Assam-Mizoram border. Many plantations, including over a thousand betelnut plants, were destroyed by the Assam officials. Subsequently, according to reports, clashes erupted between the locals. However, officials on the two sides met and the situation was controlled.
But the ‘peace’ did not last long.
Clashes again erupted in the night of October 17, 2020. There were several versions of this incident. Deputy Inspector General of Police, Southern Assam, Dilip Kumar Dey, explaining the incident claimed that a COVID-19 testing centre had been set up by the Mizoram Government at Lailapur (Cachar District, Assam), 1.5 kilometres into Assamese territory, on October 16, to test samples of Mizoram-bound truckers and other people. "The testing centre was set up unilaterally and under the pressure of Mizoram's NGOs," Dey claimed, despite the Cachar Police’s strong objections to the setting-up of the centre without the permission of the Assam Government. Following this, Day asserted, some youths from Mizoram came to Lailapur on October 17 and attacked truck drivers and villagers, and burnt more than 15 small shops-cum-houses. An unnamed police officer in Cachar claimed that more than 50 people, mostly truck drivers, were injured when assailants from Mizoram threw stones and bricks at them. Villagers of Mizoram’s Mamit District, which is contiguous to Cachar, however, alleged that miscreants from Cachar came to their villages and attacked shops and houses, causing huge damage.
According to a third version, three persons were reportedly injured when several huts made by some people of Lailapur in Cachar District were set ablaze by some people from the Mizoram side who claimed that the huts were made in the ‘disputed border area’ of Assam and Mizoram. Subsequently, the people of Lailapur clashed with residents of neighbouring Vairengte in the Kolasib District of Mizoram, in which seven persons from the Mizoram side were injured.
Meanwhile, both Governments have blamed each other.
The Mizoram State Cabinet on October 18 blamed the Karimganj and Cachar District administrations in Assam for the flare up. In a statement released after a Cabinet meeting, the Mizoram Government said that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had been informed of the “transgressions committed by the government of Assam”. The statement said that essential supplies had been choked off by a road blockade “organised by Assam” on inter-state highways. It also announced that security would be beefed up in the “affected border areas”. Soon thereafter, the Mizoram Government deployed additional troops along the Border.
On the other hand, on October 18, the Assam Forest and Environment Minister Parimal Suklabaidya blamed the incident on “miscreants from the other side of the border.”
Both sides, however, discussed the issue after the intervention of the Union Government on October 21 and some sort of normalcy was briefly restored.
On October 22, however, bomb blasts took place in a school located in the Khulicherra area in Assam, near the Assam-Mizoram border. Assam's Additional Director General of Police, Law and Order, Gyanendra Pratap Singh stated "The blasts that damaged the property of the government school was possibly triggered by the miscreants to frighten the border residents.”
Tension further escalated on October 30 after two farmers were kidnapped “by the people belonging to Mizoram” while they were working at their paddy field at Tulartal village. An Assam Government release stated that people in Tulartal, Baghewala, Singua and Lailapur areas were “being terrorised by Mizo miscreants and to reassure(d) them that the state government is with them”.
At the time of writing, tension continues to prevail along this border. National Highway 306, Mizoram’s lifeline, remains closed with around 300 goods-laden vehicles stranded on either side of the border. The people sitting on blockade in Assam are reportedly demanding withdrawal of Mizoram’s security personnel from Assam’s territory. On the other hand, Mizoram Home Minister Lalchamliana asserted that his administration would not call off security personnel from the border with Assam till normalcy is restored.
If the blockade prolongs, it will be difficult for Mizoram, which secures all its essentials, food grains, fuel and various other goods and machines through this highway. The people in the region, which like other areas, are already facing economic hardships due to the COVID-19 pandemic, will have to go through face challenges. Both the tensions on the border and the greater strains imposed on the people open up the possibilities of a revival of dormant terrorist groups in the region.
Such groups would also secure some support as a result of claims by locals that current clashes along the border were not an issue between Assam and Mizoram, but the acta of “illegal Bangladeshis” on the Assam side, who they blame for the current flare up. B. Vanlaltana, president of the Mizo Zirlai Pawl, a Mizo student organisation, asserted, “Illegal Bangladeshis are creating all this trouble. They come and destroy our huts, cut our plants and this time pelted stones on our policemen.” Samuela Zoramthanpuia, general secretary, Mizo Zirlai Pawl, adds, “Most of them are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh who claim to be locals. They are not Assamese or Indians.” It is useful to recall that the “foreigners’ issue” led to the emergence and sustenance of several insurgencies and terrorist groups in the region.
Meanwhile, Meghalaya has also demanded the resolution of its border issue with Assam. It may be mentioned that Assam and Meghalaya have at least 12 areas where there are boundary disputes. Both states have adopted a policy where one state cannot carry out developmental activities in these areas without informing the other.
On October 31, 2020, Assam Minister of Finance, Health, Education and PWD, Himanta Biswa Sarma, stated that the border issue would be resolved on priority by UMHA, soon after the upcoming Assam Assembly Elections, as "some ground work has already been done by MHA [UMHA] for a larger solution". Biswa Sarma elaborated,
Similarly, Union Joint Secretary (Northeast), UMHA, Satyendra Garg, stated, on October 22,
It is pertinent to recall here that inter-state border disputes in the region largely pertain to borders between Assam and four other states – Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Nagaland – each of which was who carved out of undivided Assam. Manipur and Tripura, which were princely states, were not part of Assam, and do not have any border issues with Assam.
The moot question, however, is, why did the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Government not try to resolve these issues earlier, if it is so sure of resolving the issues soon after the elections? The BJP has been in power in Assam since 2016 and at the Centre since 2014. Are the current flareup and the promises of early resolution an election gimmick? The BJP Governments’ tall claims of quick resolution already stand exposed in the Naga talks, which have reached a deadlock.
New Delhi appears to neglect the reality that these issues have the potential to push the region back into turmoil at any stage and should be handled with utmost care. Embroiling the region in divisive electoral politics is fraught with untold risks.
It is to be noted that the inter-state boundary dispute between Assam and Nagaland is the most prominent and has resulted in the most violence, mainly backed-by terrorist groups. Indeed, in August 2014, in a series of violent incidents 20 persons were killed: 14 Adivasis (tribals from Central India settled in the Northeast region) killed by miscreants from Nagaland; and another six persons killed in a clash with the Police. Several others have been injured in the disputed 'B Sector' of the Assam-Nagaland border in the Golaghat District. Following the incidents, Nagaland and Manipur were cut-off by road after an economic blockade was imposed against Nagaland by various Assam-based organizations.
There are other inter-state border disputes in the region, including those between Mizoram and Tripura, one of which has flared up since August 2020, when both sides reasserted their respective claims over Phuldungsei village in the Jampui Hill Range, falling along the border of the two states. The situation worsened when “Songrongma”, a Tripura based tribal organisation, declared it would construct a Shiv Temple and do community activities in the area on October 19 and 20. Authorities in Mizoram issued prohibitory orders in the area on October 16. The proposed construction had been planned without the permission of the Mizoram Government and was “against the interest of the local community”, and could “harm the peace and tranquillity in the region”, the order said. Earlier, on October 8, Mizoram Home Secretary Lalbiaksangi, had written to his Tripura counterpart Barun Kumar Sahu, asking him to intervene and stop the proposed construction, since any activities on the disputed inter-state border could result in law and order problems.
Though the order was withdrawn, with the Mizoram Government claiming that this was done as the organisation has called off its plans to build the temple, the fact is that Tripura had sent a letter to Mizoram saying that “the prohibitory order issued by the Mamit district magistrate, Mizoram. on 16 October is indicating areas of North Tripura district of Tripura state in his order, which is highly objectionable".
Mizoram has now demanded that Tripura withdraw its Forces deployed in the area during the tensions. Mizoram Home Secretary Lalbiakangi, in a letter dated October 28, to Tripura Home Secretary Barun Kumar Sahu, demanded, “As the area in which the TSR [Tripura States Rifle] is positioned and new constructions being made is inside Mizoram, you may shift the TSR from Thaidawr Tlang [Phuldungsei village is known by this name in Mizoram] to a location inside Tripura and stop and remove all constructions at this location.” Though the Tripura Government has not responded so far, an unnamed Tripura official was quoted as stating, “It doesn’t work this way, that anyone comes one fine morning and claims a part of our state as theirs. Denying the claim is also an acknowledgement of dispute. This is a part of Tripura.”
The relative peace in India’s Northeast remains extremely fragile, and is at continuous risk, particularly as a result of rampant divisive politics, the enduring neglect of a number of simmering disputes, and the protraction of the many agreements arrived at between the Government (both State and Central) and various currently dormant insurgent formations. These various issues demand urgent attention, in good faith, lest the gains of the past decade are compromised.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia October 26-November 1, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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