South Asia Terrorism Portal

INDIA

Nagaland: Uncertain Peace
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
 

On March 22, 2021, unidentified gunman in ‘camouflage’ killed three Zeliang tribesmen – Itingwangbe Haikam, Hangyi and Asiambo – in an area located at the border between the Peren and Dimapur Districts of Nagaland.

Zeme Council-Nagaland (ZC-Nagaland) president, Tumda Newme, accused Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Kitovi-Neopak (NSCN-KN) cadres for their involvement in the incident. NSCN-KN ‘chairman’ M.B. Neokpao Konyak and Ato Kilonser (Prime Minister) N. Kitovi Zhimomi denied their involvement and expressed deep sorrow over the killing of three “Zeliang brothers” by unknown assailants.

On March 2, 2021, NSCN-KN cadres had abducted three civilians from Lamhainamdi village in Peren District. The trio was safely released on March 15, 2021, after Zeliang civil society groups made a representation to Governor R. N Ravi.

Significantly, NSCN-KN is a major constituent of the Naga National Political Group (NNPG), a militant conglomerate involved in talks with the Government of India (GoI). The NNPG comprises of seven Naga militant groups: NSCN-KN, NSCN-Reformation faction (NSCN-R), NSCN-Khango Konyak faction (NSCN-K2) and four factions of the Naga National Council (NNC) – Federal Government of Nagaland (FGN), NNC-Parent Body, Non-Accordist faction of NNC/National People's Government of Nagaland (NPGN/NNC-NA), and the Government Democratic Republic of Nagaland/ NNC-NA (GDRN). The NNPGs were included in talks with GoI on September 27, 2017, in an effort to widen the peace talks.

The March 22 killing is the lone incident of killing reported in 2021, thus far (data till March 28). According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State registered two insurgency-linked fatalities, both militants, in two separate incidents in 2020. These were the lowest ever fatalities recorded in a year in the State since 1992, with the previous low of three recorded in 2010. There were four such fatalities, including one civilian, two Security Force (SF) personnel and one militant, in three incidents in 2019. There were seven fatalities (three SF personnel and four militants) in 2018, and eight fatalities (three civilians, one trooper, four militants) in 2017. Fatalities have thus been on a continuous decline since 2018. 

At the peak of the insurgency, Nagaland recorded 360 fatalities (104 civilians, 38 SF personnel, and 218 militants) in 1997. The highest civilian fatalities in a year, 144, were recorded in 1996. The maximum number of SF personnel killed, 48, was also in 1996. 

In 2020, the geographic spread of the violence was also limited. Fatalities were recorded in two Districts – Zunheboto (1) and Tuensung (1) – as against three Districts in 2019 – Mon (2), Dimapur (1) and Kohima (1).

One incident of explosion (no fatality) was reported in 2020 as against two such incidents resulting in two fatalities (both SF personnel) in 2019. One incident of internecine clash resulting in the death of one militant was reported in 2020, as against two such incidents (one militant fatality) in 2019. Turf wars between various Naga militant factions to expand influence and dominance were common till 2015. There were no such clashes in the subsequent three years (2016, 2017 and 2018). These incidents were also recorded beyond the State. Fatalities resulting from instances of internecine clashes between Naga militant groups outside Nagaland increased slightly from one militant, in Arunachala Pradesh, in 2019, to three militants, in Manipur, in 2020. Although, the fatalities increased, the number of incidents reduced from three in 2019 to two in 2020.

Meanwhile, SFs arrested 117 militants in 59 incidents, adding to 187 militants arrested in 108 incidents in 2019. Those arrested in 2020 included 56 from NSCN-IM; 12 from NSCN-K Khango Konyak; 15 from NSCN-KN; nine from NSCN-Khaplang-Yung Aung; seven from NSCN-K; six from NNC; two each from NSCN-K Nikki Sumi, Zeliangrong United Front-Kamson (ZUF-Kamson), United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) and NSCN-R; and one militant each from the Nyemlang Konyak-led NSCN-K, and Kangleipak Communist Party-Noyon (KCP-Noyon).

The broad trends indicate an improved security situation in the state.

Incidents of abduction and extortion, however, remained unabated. On June 26, 2020, Inspector General-Range (IGP -Range) Limasunep Jamir disclosed that, over the preceding five years, the Nagaland Police had registered a total of 893 criminal cases and arrested 1,238 people of various Naga political groups for involvement in various crimes, including abduction/kidnapping for ransom and extortion. In Dimapur alone, 507 cases were registered against extortionists over this period, and a total of 723 extortionists had been arrested. Meanwhile in Kohima, 72 cases were registered and 96 extortionists were arrested. The recorded incidents of extortion/abduction are likely a fraction of the total incidence, as a majority of victims comply with the demands of militant formations and fail to report cases.

On January 26, 2021, Governor R.N. Ravi observed,

Meanwhile, the Naga peace talks are yet to reach any definite conclusion, despite the 2015 Framework Agreement. Significantly, the crucial issue of a separate flag and constitution demanded by NSCN-IM, based on a 'unique Naga history', remains the major bone of contention. Interlocutor turned Governor R.N Ravi observed, on December 1, 2020,

On February 12, 2021 Governor R. N. Ravi claimed that negotiations between the Centre and Naga groups on the Naga political imbroglio had concluded, and there was now need to move swiftly for a conclusive solution. Governor Ravi claimed that a seven-point unanimous resolution was adopted at the October 15, 2020, consultative meeting, which asserted that there would be a single solution for the Naga political issue. However, on March 3, 2021, NSCN-IM declared that it would not sign any agreement that is "short of mutual standards agreed upon."

Meanwhile, NSCN-K recorded another split in July 2020, when Niki Sumi, Nyamlang Konyak Naga, and Starson Lamkang were expelled by the Yung Aung faction of NSCN-K.

Thereafter, on January 2, 2021, Nikki Sumi announced a ceasefire with the Government,

Reacting to the Sumi's statement, an unnamed senior NNPG leader said,

There are, however, indications of a revival of armed groups resorting to violence in case of the failure of the Naga talks. On March 23, 2021, NSCN-IM warned,

Further, the question of demographic threat and local privileges continues to mobilise people. On March 19, 2021, the civil society conglomerate, Joint Committee on Prevention of Illegal Immigrants (JCPI), took out a silent rally in Dimapur to demand immediate implementation of the Register of Indigenous Citizens of Nagaland (RIIN) exercise in Nagaland. JCPI demanded that the State Government immediately act on the Banuo Commission report on RIIN and make necessary law to implement the RIIN exercise before March 31, 2021, with December 1, 1963, as the cut-off date. They demanded that an ordinance to this affect be promulgated in the State Assembly. The aim of RIIN is to prevent issuance of fake indigenous inhabitants' certificates. The RIIN is intended to be the master list of all indigenous inhabitants of the state. Significantly, NSCN-IM is opposed to RIIN. On April 4, 2019, NSCN-IM had claimed,

Further, in a letter dated March 12, 2021, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) asked Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram to take appropriate action, as per law, and maintain strict vigil at the borders to prevent a possible influx of people from Myanmar into India. These four States share a 1,643-kilometre-long international boundary with Myanmar (Nagaland shares 215 kilometres). Myanmar is facing turmoil in the aftermath of the February 1, 2021, coup d'état by Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army). According to a March 25 report, 733 Myanmarese had entered Mizoram since the February 1 coup. Three people were confirmed to have entered Manipur. No influx has yet been reported from Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland.

The peace in Nagaland is tentative and it is consequently imperative for the State to ensure that the political approach and security measures don't botch up the peace process at this critical juncture.

INDIA

Andhra Pradesh: Lingering Risk
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 5, 2021, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres killed a former Maoist ‘militia member’, identified as Korra Pilku (35), branding him a ‘Police informer’, at Kothapalem village in Gudem Kotha (GK) Veedhi Mandal (administrative sub-division) in Visakhapatnam District. A group of Maoists entered the village, dragged Pilku out from his house and hacked him to death. This is the lone Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE]-linked incident of violence recorded in Andhra Pradesh (AP), in 2021, thus far (data till March 28). 

There were five fatalities (four civilians and one Maoist) in four separate incidents of killing in 2020 in AP, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). The State had recorded a total of 14 fatalities (five civilians and nine Maoists) in seven separate incidents of killing in 2019. Thus, there was a decline of 64.28 per cent in overall fatalities in 2020 as compared to 2019. 

The last fatality in the Security Forces (SFs) category took place on May 5, 2017, when a Home Guard, identified as Sheikh Valli, was killed in a landmine blast triggered by the Maoists on the Lothugedda junction-Balapam stretch in Visakhapatnam District. 

Between 1968 and June 1, 2014 (on June 2, 2014 Telangana was carved out of AP), undivided AP accounted for a total of 6,296 fatalities [2,765 civilians, 560 SF personnel, 2,918 Left Wing Extremists (LWEs), and 53 unspecified fatalities]. Between June 2, 2014, and March 28, 2021, another 57 fatalities [30 civilians, one trooper and 26 Naxalites (LWEs)] have been recorded in the State.

Significantly, the Maoist insurgency in (undivided) AP recorded a high of 508 fatalities, including 198 civilians, 35 SF personnel and 275 Naxalites, in 1998.

In 2020, all the killings were reported from Vishakhapatnam District. In 2019 and 2018, also, all the fatalities were reported from the same District. The last fatality outside Vishakhapatnam was recorded in 2017, when, out of a total nine fatalities in the year, two were recorded in East Godavari – one on February 5 and another on February 27.  

In 2020, while the killings were limited to Vishakhapatnam District, other Maoist-linked incidents, including arrests, arms recoveries, arson, extortion, and surrenders, were reported from Anantapur, East Godavari, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, and West Godavari Districts, as well. The remaining seven Districts of AP remained free of Maoist activities. Similarly, in 2019, while killing was limited to Vishakhapatnam District, other Maoist-linked incidents were reported from East Godavari, Guntur, Srikakulam as well. The remaining nine Districts of AP remained free of Maoist activities.

Data released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on September 21, 2020, indicated that six Districts [East Godavari, Guntur, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, and West Godavari] of Andhra Pradesh were considered to be affected by LWE-violence, among 90 Districts in 11 States, which are also covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) Scheme. Moreover, according to data released by UMHA on March 23, 2021, Vishakhapatnam, was among the ‘30 worst Maoist-affected Districts in 7 States’ in the country.

In 2016, eight AP Districts – Anantapur, East Godavari, Guntur, Kurnool, Prakasam, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, and Vizianagaram – were among 106 Districts in 10 States identified by the Government of India as LWE-affected Districts in the country.

One of the primary reasons for the dramatic decline in Maoist activities in AP is that the rebels are losing the support of the locals and, indeed, facing grassroots opposition.

For instance, according to a March 7, 2021, report, a large number of tribals, staged a protest at GK Veedhi Mandal in Visakhapatnam District, condemning the March 5, 2021, killing at Kothapalem village. Youths gathered in large number and formed a human chain on the main road at GK Veedhi Mandal and also burnt an effigy of the Maoists, raising slogans against the LWEs, alleging that the latter were neither letting them live peacefully nor allowing the area to be developed. The tribals demanded that the Government take strong action against the Maoists and also warned the rebels against entering their villages.

Some concerns, however, persist.

According to a February 26, 2021, report, in an effort to win support among the locals, the Maoists, have extended their backing to the people and workers agitating against the proposed strategic sale of the Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP). In a letter released by the CPI-Maoist, the spokesman of the ‘Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC)’, Kailash aka Kailasam, declared that the Visakhapatnam Steel Plant had been ‘achieved’ after people made ‘huge sacrifices.’ As many as 32 persons had been killed, the letter alleged, and added that the sale of steel plant would not be allowed. 

Further, according to a January 2, 2021, report, seeing the ongoing Farmers' Protest as an opportunity to strike the right chord to gather support and sympathy of the locals, CPI-Maoist ‘AOBSZC’ ‘secretary’ Ravi aka Uday aka Ganesh, released a letter extending support to the farmers’ movement. The letter declared that the farmers’ issues could be solved only through people’s revolution, and criticised the Government for trying to dilute the agitation, which was supported by various sections of society. The Farmers' Protest against the three newly enacted farm laws – The Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill, 2020; The Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill, 2020; and The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Bill 2020 – has been going on since the passing of the Bills in the Parliament on September 2020. The President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, gave his assent to the Bills on September 27, 2020, making them Law.

The 'AOBSZC' alleged, further,

It called upon the people to join the 'struggle against capitalistic forces, which were out to destroy the earth for their selfish goals.'

An August 5, 2020, report, moreover, revealed that the Maoists were taking to cannabis (ganja) cultivation in the agency area of AP to maintain their flow of funds. According to the Police, the nexus between Maoists and cannabis traders came to the fore with the arrest on August 5, 2020, of Kolakani Kamesh from Maddigaruvu area in Gangaraju Madugula Mandal in Visakhapatnam District, with 24 kilograms of ganja, two steel carriages, 10 detonators, nuts and bolts and INR 176,000 in cash. Satish Kumar, Officer on Special Duty (OSD), anti-Maoist operations, stated,

Indeed, during interrogation, Kamesh accepted that he had been working for the Maoists for four years. He also said that he was contacted by one Maoist couple - Ashok and his wife Lakshmi - who used to supply him with ganja. Giving details of the modus operandi, OSD, Satish Kumar, stated,

Despite these worrying developments, the AP Police continue to face critical gaps in capacities and deployment in the State. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, the AP Police continued to lag in terms of capacities. As against the sanctioned strength of 73,894 policemen in AP, only 59,553 were in position, creating a deficit of 19.40 per cent. The actual police-population ratio (police personnel per 100,000 population) in AP was 113.68, significantly below the inadequate national average of 155.78. More worryingly, the actual Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) in AP was just 36.55, against the national average of 63.63. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio were well below the sanctioned strength, at 45.36 and 79.80, respectively. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State was 144, but just 115 officers were in position, creating a deficit of 20.13 per cent, considerably weakening the executive supervision of the Force.

The AP Police has, no doubt, done incredibly well against the Maoists over the past decades, but the Maoists are certainly not a spent force. It is imperative for the Governments, both at the Central and State levels, to address critical security deficits and strengthen the necessary administrative, developmental and security outreach to consolidate peace in the State.