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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 19, No. 30, January 18, 2021
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • SRI LANKA: Reversing Reconciliation - S. Binodkumar Singh
  • INDIA: Jharkhand: Dying Embers - Indrajit Sharma


SRI LANKA

 

    Print

Reversing Reconciliation
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

 

A fast-unto-death protest started by five undergraduates of the Jaffna University came to an end soon after Vice Chancellor of the University S. Srisatkunarajah laid the foundation stone for the reconstruction of the Mullivaikkal Memorial within the university premises on January 11, 2021.

The university administration, on January 8, 2021, demolished the memorial, arguing that the war monument was a threat to the unity of the country. Subsequently, a tense situation arose in Jaffna. In the night of January 9, the university administration changed its decision following discussions between the university student representatives and the Vice Chancellor. 

The Mullivaikkal Memorial was erected by Tamil students in 2019 to mark the 10th anniversary of the end of the civil war.

Jaffna parliamentarian S. Shritharan described the development as "very disturbing" and noted:

This is a deliberate, provocative act, knowing well that memorials are to do with people's emotions. After a relatively peaceful period here, this act will trigger much pain and anger, especially among our youth. That is very worrying.

Indeed, such actions have the potential to give fillip to the minuscule number of remaining sympathizers of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) within the country and their promoters among the Tamil Diaspora who, despite the LTTE’s decisive defeat in 2009, remain relentless in their efforts to keep the memory alive. More worryingly, Diaspora elements have been found to be involved in several failed attempts to carry out terrorist attacks.

Most recently, on December 2, a former female LTTE cadre and her husband were arrested in a joint operation by the Police and the Army in Paranthan town, Kilinochchi District. Their child was with the couple. They were arrested while transporting a claymore mine weighing 1.8 kilograms in a bus plying from Jaffna (Northern Province) to Kandy (Central Province). Later, based on their disclosures, one hand grenade was also found buried in the yard of their house. The claymore mine was to be sent to the Eastern Province to carry out terror attack. It was also revealed that a Switzerland-based group was behind this latest plan. 

According to intelligence sources, this is the 15th attempt made by the LTTE to carry out an attack following the end of the war in May 2009.

The country recorded one LTTE-linked fatality in 2020. On July 8, 2020, a former LTTE ‘intelligence agent’, Thangarasa Thevanesan (43), who sustained burn injuries when a crude bomb exploded accidentally in his house located at the Puliyadi Junction in Kilinochchi District of Northern Province on July 3, succumbed to his injuries. The last LTTE-related fatality before this was reported on April 10, 2014, when four people, including an Army Lance Corporal and three LTTE cadres, were killed in a clash between Security Forces (SFs) and LTTE cadres in the Nadunkarni area of Vavuniya District.

Meanwhile, the Government continued to crack down on the remnants of the LTTE in 2020. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), four former LTTE cadres and sympathizers were arrested across the country. There were 27 such arrests in 2019. Since May 2009, at least 346 former LTTE cadres have been arrested.  

The Government also continued its nationwide crackdown on the Islamist group, National Thawheed Jamaath (NTJ), which was responsible for the Easter Sunday attacks on April 21, 2019, in which 259 people were killed and another 500 were injured. 11 NTJ cadres were arrested across the country in 2020, after 294 such arrests in 2019.

On January 8, 2021, The United States Department of Justice, announced that three Sri Lankan citizens had been charged with terrorism offenses, including conspiring to provide material support to the Islamic State (IS, also Daesh) for the 2019 Easter Sunday suicide attacks. The three defendants named in the criminal complaint, all of whom pledged allegiance to IS, were Mohamed Naufar, the ‘second emir’ for the group of IS supporters that called itself “ISIS in Sri Lanka,” who allegedly led the group’s propaganda efforts, recruited others to join IS, and led a series of multi-day military-type trainings; Mohamed Anwar Mohamed Riskan, who allegedly helped manufacture the Improvised Explosive Devices used in the Easter Attacks; and Ahamed Milhan Hayathu Moahmed, who allegedly executed a Police officer in order to obtain the officer’s firearm, shot a suspected informant, and scouted a location for a separate terrorist attack. All the defendants are in custody in Sri Lanka. The US Justice Department stated that it would support the Sri Lankan investigation and prosecution and would continue to work with the authorities there to pursue the shared goal of holding these defendants accountable for their crimes.

Two days after the Easter Sunday serial suicide bombings, NTJ had persuaded Daesh to claim the attacks. NTJ leader Zahran Hashim had made a video with his fellow suicide bombers pledging allegiance to Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Bagdadi. The video was released by Daesh two days later.

Emphasizing that ensuring national security was his and the Government’s first and foremost responsibility, President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa stated, on October 3, 2020, “Appropriate steps have already been taken to achieve this. We will ensure that no ethnic, religious or other forms of terrorism or extremism are allowed on this land and that the right of every citizen to live without fear and suspicion is fully protected.”

Reiterating the Government’s determination, Defense Secretary General (Retd.) Kamal Gunaratne asserted, on December 30, 2020, that there was no room for separatism and extremism in the country, since they had taken steps to thwart all such attempts.

On the political front, the hold of Rajapaksa brothers strengthened further after the Mahinda Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka People's Party (SLPP)’s secured a clear victory in the Parliamentary Elections  held on August 5, 2020.

In the very first meeting of the new Cabinet, held on August 19, 2020, the Sri Lanka Government decided to abolish the 19th Amendment and to bring in the 20th Amendment to the Constitution. The 20th Amendment, passed on October 22, 2020, granted sweeping powers to the Executive President. With 157 votes in favor and 64 against, the motion secured more than a two-thirds majority. The Amendment gave the President the power, inter alia, to appoint senior judges, members of the Human Rights Commission and other independent institutions, such as anti-corruption bodies; to appoint and dismiss Ministers, including the Prime Minister; and to dissolve Parliament at any time two and a half years after elections.

Meanwhile, the Presidential Election of November 16, 2019, brought Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s to the Presidency, after which the Government reversed several decisions of the previous Government, which had been intended to help in ethnic reconciliation.

Since coming to power in 2019, the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Government stopped issuing interim relief payments to families of the ‘disappeared’, putting them under further financial strain. According to the recommendations of the Office on Missing Persons (OMP) Act enacted on March 13, 2018, by the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government, families had begun to receive SLR 6,000 per month as a living allowance to ease the straitened circumstances they had endured after the disappearance of their relatives, including many individuals who were the sole income earners within such families. On January 7, 2020, an official attached to the Justice Ministry disclosed that the Government had decided to review the OMP Act. The Act, however, remains in place at present.

On January 2, 2020, the new Government withdrew the Counter Terrorism Bill drafted by the previous Government to replace the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), 1979. On January 3, 2020, Co-Cabinet Spokesman Minister Bandula Gunawardena argued,

If the CTA [Counter Terrorism Act] was enacted, it would have stopped the Armed Forces and Police from dealing effectively with the threat of terrorism, and instead curbed the rights guaranteed to the people by the Constitution, such as political trade union rights, and their freedom of expression.

Moreover, expressing serious concern over the Counter Terrorism Bill, the then opposition leader and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa (now the Prime Minister) had stated on April 2, 2019, "The proposed new legislation is because of undue international pressure and the failure of the Government."

The Gotabaya Rajapaksa Government declined to sing the national anthem in Tamil, the country’s second national language, during the island’s Independence Day celebrations on February 4, 2020. Earlier, on February 4, 2016, the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government, had taken a decision to sing the anthem in the country’s two primary languages – Sinhala and Tamil – to promote ethnic harmony in the aftermath of a decades-long civil war. Tamil politicians had requested Gotabaya to continue the practice of singing the Tamil translation of the national anthem, recognized by the Constitution, in order to give the Tamil community a sense of belonging to the country after decades of estrangement.

President Rajapaksa has transferred responsibility for large areas of civil administration to the Ministry of Defense. The Government placed over 30 agencies, including the Police, under the authority of the Ministry of Defense, and retired and serving military officers have been appointed to numerous key posts previously held by civilians. On June 2, 2020, President Rajapaksa established a Presidential Task Force composed entirely of military and security officials, with loosely defined powers and the authority to issue instructions to all government officials, to build a ‘Secure Country’ and ‘Disciplined, Virtuous and Lawful Society.’

Unsurprisingly, on December 18, 2020, three major political parties in the North began discussions to present a resolution on behalf of their constituents at the 46th United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) meeting to be held in Geneva from February 22 – March 19, 2021. Parliamentarian M.A. Sumanthiran, on behalf of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA); former Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Vigneswaran, on behalf of the Tamil Makkal Thesiya Kuttani (TMTK); and Parliamentarian Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam, on behalf of the All-Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC), discussed and decided to draft the resolution under joint leadership.

Significantly, on February 27, 2020, Sri Lanka withdrew its 2015 commitment to the Truth Seeking, Accountability and Reconciliation process established following the country’s long civil war.

While threats from a small number of surviving LTTE sympathisers, and from presently dormant Islamist radical formations, remain a challenge, the policy reversals on several issues by the present Government are an overkill, and are likely to further disrupt the tentative reconciliation process in the country.

 

INDIA

 

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Jharkhand: Dying Embers
Indrajit Sharma
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 10, 2021, two cadres of the People’s Liberation Front of India (PLFI), a splinter group of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), were arrested by Security Forces (SFs) in the Lowahatu Forest area under Taibo Police Station limits in the West Singhbhum District. SFs recovered a country-made gun, a cycle, a battery charger, a wireless set, 10 mobiles and Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] literature, among other items, from their possession.

On January 9, 2021, Police arrested two Maoists from Sasangsal under the Goeilkera Police Station area in West Singhbhum District. Both the arrestees were involved in executing explosions at the building of the Forest Department located in Barkela on July 12, 2020. They were also wanted for planting Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and other incidents in the District.

On January 2, 2021, Police arrested two cadres of the Tritiya Sammelan Prastuti Committee (TSPC/TPC), a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist, along with money collected as ‘levy’ and various incriminating documents, in Latehar District. The duo was identified as Kamlesh Yadav and Priyanka Devi aka Sushma Devi, wife of TSPC ‘commander’ Rakesh Ganjhu. Items recovered from their possession included a sum of INR 24,300 collected as a levy, a bank passbook, ATM card, Naxal literature, a notebook, and Nepali Currency.

Thus, six Naxalites have been arrested in the State in 2021, thus far (data till January 17). During the corresponding period of 2020, nine Naxalites were arrested.

At least 92 Naxalites were arrested through 2020, in addition to 69 such arrests in 2019. 11 Naxalites surrendered in 2020, in addition to 11 in 2019.

Moreover, according to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), SFs killed 18 Naxalites in the State in 2020, while they lost two of their own personnel, yielding a kill ratio of 1:9, the best kill ratio achieved against the Naxals in the State since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism.

Comparatively in 2019, SFs killed 31 Naxalites and lost 13 of their own personnel, yielding a kill ratio of 1:2.38. The overall kill ratio since March 6, 2000, was in favor of SFs, at 1:1.39.

Civilian fatalities, a key index of security in a region, registered a 60 per cent decline, from 20 in 2019, to eight in 2020, the lowest in this category since 2000, when there were 13 such fatalities.

The 28 total fatalities recorded in 2020 are also the lowest overall fatalities recorded in the State in a year since 2000, when they stood at 36. 64 total fatalities were registered in 2019. In 2021, two fatalities (both civilians) have been reported (data till January 17).

Crucially, the number of Districts from where killings were reported also decreased in 2020 as compared to 2019. Out of a total of 24 Districts in Jharkhand, fatalities were reported from 13 in 2020 – West Singhbhum (11); Chatra and Gumla (three each); Lohardaga (two); Bokaro, Giridih, Hazaribagh, Khunti, Latehar, Ranchi, Koderma, Seraikela-Kharsawan and Simdega (one each). 15 Districts recorded such fatalities in 2019 – Khunti (14); Gumla and Seraikela-Kharsawan (seven each); Lohardaga (six); Giridih and Latehar (five each); Chatra and Hazaribagh (four each); West Singhbhum (three); Dumka, Palamu and Ranchi (two each); Garhwa, Ramgarh and Simdega (one each).

The State also saw a fading influence of PLFI, and other CPI-Maoist splinters.

The overall security situation in the State thus improved significantly in 2020. Jharkhand Police spokesperson and Inspector General (IG) Saket Singh observed, as reported on December 8, 2020, “The activities of CPI-Maoist are now confined to small pockets in the State because of our efforts. The Police also had encounters with the PLFI recently, reducing their strength.”

Concerns, however, persist. Rebel hotspots continue to exist in the State, such as the tri-junction of Ranchi, Khunti, and West Singhbhum Districts, as well as the Parasnath Hills in Giridih, and Budha Pahar in Bokaro.

Unsurprisingly, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) designates at least 19 of Jharkhand’s 24 Districts as LWE-affected. These include Bokaro, Chatra, Dhanbad, Dumka, East Singhbhum, Garhwa, Giridih, Gumla, Hazaribagh, Khunti, Koderma, Latehar, Lohardaga, Palamu, Ramgarh, Ranchi, Simdega, Saraikela-Kharsawan, West Singhbhum

According to a November 17, 2020, report, in recent years, the activities of three prominent Maoists, including Maharaja Pramanik, Amit Munda, and Ravindra Ganjhu, have increased significantly in the State. Among these, Ravindra Ganjhu, the ‘zonal commander’ of the CPI-Maoist and a notorious Naxalite, operates in Lohardaga, Gumla and Latehar Districts of the State. Ganjhu carries a cash reward of INR 1 million on his head and remains a challenge for the Police in the three Districts.

Moreover, a November 18, 2020, report observes that the Maoists have issued a decree to kill Special Police Officers (SPOs) and have pasted posters in this regard in several Maoist-affected Districts of Jharkhand, including Lohardaga, West Singhbhum, Giridih and Ranchi. The Maoists’ ‘Koyal Shankh Zone committee’ pronounced the death penalty for those who work as SPOs in these Districts.

On January 13, 2021, cadres of PLFI, put up a poster at Gudri Bazar in Lohardaga District, warning ‘Police informers’ and businessmen of dire consequences if they pass on information about the group to the Police or refuse to meet PLFI demands of PLFI. The poster urged the local masses to unite against ‘oppressive forces’ and threatened industrialists with the PLFI’s wrath if they continued to ‘exploit the poor class’. Through the poster, PLFI also asked Police “not to conduct fake encounters and refrain from targeting innocent villagers.”

According to a January 14, 2021 report, apart from the CPI-Maoist, there are at least 17 splinter outfits still active in the State. A majority of these splinter groups, as well as Maoist associates, are involved in extorting money from businessmen, trafficking children, and other criminal activities.

To meet these challenges, SFs have sustained an aggressive campaign on the ground. On December 8, 2020, the Director General of Police (DGP) M. V. Rao declared, “The operations against the extremists are continuing. No efforts will be spared to eradicate the menace of extremists from the State.”

SFs have also taken several additional steps to secure the region. A November 23, 2020, report observed that, as a part of the measures by the Jharkhand Police and Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) to build confidence among the villagers affected by Naxal activities across the State, a CRPF camp was set up at Pandeydih village under Pirtaand Block (administrative unit) in Giridih District, close to the residence of Ajay Mahato, a member of the Special Area Committee of the CPI-Maoist, carrying a cash reward of INR 2.5 million on his head. Apart from Mahato, who is active in the corridor between Parasnath and the West Bengal and Orissa borders, other Maoists including Karamchand Manjhi and Dhiren Da, also hail from the same village. Previously, the Pirtaand block was an impregnable fortress of the Maoists, but has crumbled in the face of the CRPF's growing dominance. Jharkhand Police Spokesman and IG, Saket Singh thus noted,

The camp at Pandeydih is strategic for several reasons as the village is located near the foothills of the Parasnath Hills. Our presence there will prevent the extremists from coming down from the hills to the villages for fulfilling their requirements such as food. Similar camps have been opened in the forest areas of other sensitive Districts like Latehar, Garhwa, Seraikela and Chaibasa.

On January 5, 2021, in view of expediting the ongoing development projects in Naxalite affected areas in Jharkhand, including the West Singhbhum and Seraikela-Kharsawan Districts, K. Vijay Kumar, Senior Security Advisor, UMHA, convened a meeting of Police and Paramilitary Forces in the Sonua Block in West Singhbhum District. During the interaction, the Vijay Kumar emphasized the urgent need for better coordination between the Police and CRPF, to flush out Naxalites in the affected areas of the State.

Despite declining trends in violence, a significant combat zone remains in Jharkhand, where the Naxalites continue to pursue their goal of regaining and expanding their hold. Intensive and aggressive SF operations in the affected areas are, consequently, necessary in order to thwart attempts of a Maoist revival and to consolidate the SF successes already achieved.

NEWS BRIEFS
 

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
January 11-17, 2021

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

8
25
186
2
221

INDIA

 

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Chhattisgarh

1
0
2
0
3

Jharkhand

2
0
0
0
2

INDIA (Total)

3
0
2
0
5

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
1
0
0
2

KP

4
5
2
0
11

PAKISTAN (Total)

5
6
2
0
13
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

118 Taliban militants killed in the last 24 hours, says Afghan Ministry of Defence: The Defense Ministry on January 15 said that 118 Taliban members were killed in the clashes and more than 30 others were wounded in the last 24 hours. Also, data provided by security agencies indicate that parts of 21 provinces have witnessed clashes between government forces and the Taliban. Tolo News, January 16, 2021.

US troop levels in Afghanistan drop to 2,500, confirms US Department of State: The United State (US) Department of Defense on January 15 confirmed that the number of US forces in Afghanistan has reached 2,500 as directed by President Donald Trump. "Today, the United States is closer than ever to ending nearly two decades of war and welcoming in an Afghan-owned, Afghan-led peace process to achieve a political settlement and a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire," the statement said quoting US Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller. The Khaama Press, January 16, 2021.

 
INDIA

300-400 Pak-trained militants ready to infiltrate into J&K, says Army chief: Around 300-400 terrorists trained in camps across the Line of Control (LoC) are ready to sneak into Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Army chief General M M Naravane said on January 15. General Naravane also said that there has been 44 per cent increase in ceasefire violations that reflects Pakistan's sinister design. Pakistan often provides cover fire to help terrorists sneak into J&K. Daily Excelsior, January 16, 2021.

Over 270 terrorists currently active in Jammu and Kashmir, say official sources: More than 270 terrorists are currently active in Jammu and Kashmir, which is less than the 2019 and 2020 figures, official sources said. The Union Territory has seen a decrease in terrorist incidents, infiltration and civilian killings in 2020, while Security Forces carried out more than 100 "successful" counter-terrorism operations killing 225 terrorists. There are over 270 terrorists active in J&K currently, of whom 205 are in Kashmir Valley. Daily Excelsior, January 14, 2021.

India proposes eight-point Action Plan against global terror in UNSC: India has proposed an eight-point Action Plan to counter global terrorism and called upon world community to ''walk the talk'' and commit to the goal of ''zero tolerance'' with 'no ifs and buts' against the scourge. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in his address at the 20th anniversary of the UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1373, said eight points ''that could in a way be an Action Plan,'' would be important for the UN system to credibly address the menace of terrorism and ensure effective action. Goa Chronicle, January 14, 2021.

IB sets up national memory bank to share information on terrorists, says report: Intelligence Bureau (IB) has been able to boost counter terror operations and subsequent investigations through its national database of all terrorists in the country. The database also has details of Left-wing extremists, north east insurgent groups and others. These details are now being made available at the District level, too, where analysing inputs on the ground becomes crucial. The Week, January 13, 2021.

NEPAL

Dahal-Nepal faction of NCP preparing to oust Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli from party, says report: The rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal in the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has been preparing to oust Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli from the party as a disciplinary action. According to the faction, Prime Minister Oli has been running the Government breaching the party discipline and is liable to expulsion from the party. My Republica, January 15, 2021.

NCP has not split yet and Pushpa Kamal Dahal is still second-ranked chairman of party, says Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli: In a letter sent to the Election Commission (EC) on January 13, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who is also the chairman of the rival faction of the ruling party Nepal Communist Party (NCP), maintained that the party has not split yet and Pushpa Kamal Dahal is still the second-ranked chairman of the party. Following the dissolution of House of Representatives (HoR) on December 20 the EC sent a letter to both the rival faction - one led by Oli and another by Dahal-Madhav Kumar Nepal - and asked to produce necessary details as per the Political Parties Act 2017 and its bylaws. My Republica, January 14, 2021.

PAKISTAN

No organised terrorist infrastructure exists in Pakistan today, says ISPR Director General Major General Babar Iftikhar: The Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Babar Iftikhar on January 11 said that no organised terrorist infrastructure exists in Pakistan today as the country fought successfully against the internal and external security challenges. Major General Babar Iftikhar said that he is holding the press conference to highlight the latest situation of the country's security. Ary News, January 12, 2021.

 
SRI LANKA

Provincial Council elections should be held as they are part of Constitution, says EC Chairman Nimal Punchihewa: Chairman of the Election Commission (EC) Attorney-at-Law Nimal Punchihewa at a discussion held with the media chiefs at the EC Office on January 12 said that the Provincial Council elections should be held as they are a part of the Constitution. The Chairman of the EC pointed out that the non-holding of the Provincial Council elections has only prevented the appointment of people's representatives to those institutions and that the functions assigned to the Provincial Councils are being carried out as usual. Colombo Page, January 13, 2021.

 
 
For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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