South Asia Terrorism Portal
North Waziristan: Terrorist Revival Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Two Army soldiers were killed in an exchange of fire with militants during an intelligence-based operation in the Spalga area of Miranshah tehsil (revenue unit) in North Waziristan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on September 19, 2020.
A soldier was killed in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion near a check post on the Boya-Miranshah Road in North Waziristan District on September 12, 2020.
On September 7, 2020, the Security Forces (SFs) conducted an Intelligence Based Operation in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District and killed five terrorists. 10 terrorists were also arrested during the operation.
On September 6, 2020, an Army officer and a soldier were injured in an attack on SFs by terrorists near the Hasokhel Bridge in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan.
On September 3, 2020, three Army soldiers were killed and four sustained injuries when they were targeted by terrorists while providing protection to road construction teams working on the Shaga-Nishpa Road in the Ghariom Tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), North Waziristan has accounted for a total of 81 fatalities (three civilians, 29 SF personnel and 49 terrorists) in terrorism-related violence in 2020, thus far (data till September 20, 2020). During the corresponding period of 2019, there were 38 such fatalities, including two civilians, 31 SF personnel and five terrorists. In the remaining period of 2019, another 12 fatalities, including eight SF personnel and four terrorists, were recorded in the District. Thus, a total of 50 fatalities, including two civilians, 39 SF personnel and nine terrorists, were recorded in 2019.
The surge in violence is worrisome given the bloody past of the region.
North Waziristan District falls under the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region which was once termed as the “most dangerous place in the world”. North Waziristan was one among the seven Agencies of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas [FATA]. On May 31, 2018, FATA was merged with the KP Province and its status was changed from Agency to District, as was case with the other six erstwhile Agencies. North Waziristan shares borders with Bannu, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Kurram Districts of KP in the North and Northeast; Sherani and Musakhel Districts of Balochistan to the South; and Khost, Paktia, and Paktika Provinces of Afghanistan to the West and North-West. Its strategically central and vulnerable location gives it tremendous importance for the terrorists.
Since March 6, 2000, when SATP commenced compiling data on conflicts in Pakistan, and till May 30, 2018, when it was an Agency in FATA, North Waziristan recorded a total of 7,128 fatalities [827 civilians, 686 SF personnel, 5,365 terrorists and 250 not-specified (NS)]. Since May 31, 2018, onwards North Waziristan has recorded another 180 fatalities, including 11 civilians, 86 SF personnel, and 83 terrorists.
Terrorism in the region was at its peak between 2005 and early 2014. In just this over-nine-year period, the region accounted for 800 civilian deaths out of a total of 838 civilians deaths recorded in the region since March 6, 2000 (data till September 20, 2020). Further, out of a total of 770 SF fatalities recorded in the region between March 6, 2000, and September 18, 2020, 656, i.e. 84.97 per cent, were recorded between 2005 and early 2014 alone.
Things changed with the launch of operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) in North Waziristan, on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the attack on the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, on June 8-9, 2014. At least 33 persons, including all 10 attackers, were killed in the Karachi Airport attack.
Zarb-e-Azb officially ended on April 18, 2016. On June 15, 2016, the then Director General (DG) of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Lieutenant-General Asim Saleem Bajwa, disclosed,
After, the end of Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistan military launched Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord) on February 22, 2017, across the country. Since then, another 96 terrorists have been killed in North Waziristan (data till September 20). The operation is still continuing. 101 SF personnel have also been killed in this period in North Waziristan.
Though it had been the epicentre of all terrorist activities, Pakistan had long delayed operations in North Waziristan, as the region also provided shelter to its own Afghan terrorist proxy, the Haqqani Network. The Haqqani Network had long been accused by the United States of attacking allied forces in Afghanistan. Significantly, the are no reports to suggest that the Pakistani Army had killed even a single terrorist drawn from the Haqqani Network. According to unnamed tribal sources the Haqqani Network abruptly left the area, even as Operation Zarb-e-Azb commenced on June 15, 2014, allegedly tipped off by the military. Many Haqqani members shifted across the border to Afghanistan.
Notably, a July 7, 2014, report stated that up to 80 per cent of terrorists fled after rumours of an Army assault emerged in early May, most over the porous border into Afghanistan. Later, a March 8, 2017, report also confirmed that many terrorists managed to escape, slipping across the border to eastern Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that the terrorists who had escaped to other areas are ‘coming back home’. Journalist Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, covering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for The New York Times, asserted, on August 3, 2020,
Moreover, reports confirm that the unification process of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has begun. TTP had created havoc in the region, between 2007 and early 2014. On August 17, 2020, TTP confirmed that the breakaway Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA) had re-joined the group. JuA ‘chief’ Omar Khalid Khurasani and HuA ‘chief’ Omar Khurasani have pledged allegiance to the TTP ‘chief’ Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP statement disclosed. JuA parted ways with TTP in 2014 after developing differences with the then leader of the group, Mullah Fazlullah. It had even condemned the TTP’s 2014 attack on the Army Public School. HuA was formed later, after JuA split into two groups. The regrouping of all faction of TTP under the leadership Noor Wali Mehsud is a matter of serious concern.
JuA and HuA are not the only groups that have re-joined the TTP lately. After the death of TTP-Hakimullah Mehsud (TTP-HK) group ‘chief’ Shehryar Mehsud on February 12, 2020, the TTP-HK under its ‘commander’ Mukhlis Yaar Mehsud, re-joined the parent outfit in July 2020.
People in the region are worried about the developments. Radio Mashaal in a report on September 16, 2020, quoting local residents of North Waziristan claimed that the residents of the region are concerned over mounting insecurity in their homeland. It quoted one local resident, Syed Ayub Khan, as stating,
With the return of terrorists to North Waziristan and the reunification of TTP gaining momentum, violence is bound to increase and may adversely impact the overall security situation in the region.
Talking about Talking Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
At the time of writing (September 20, 2020), over eight days have passed, but the formal talks between the Afghanistan Government and the Taliban have not yet begun. During this period, the negotiating teams of both sides have held three meetings in Doha, Qatar. Another five meetings have been held between the Contact Groups of both the sides.
Significantly, the opening ceremony of the Intra-Afghan Negotiations (IAN) were held in Doha, Qatar, on September 12, 2020, leading to the first ever official meeting of the Taliban and the Afghanistan Government. On the same day, the two sides formed their respective Contact Groups. Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, Nader Nadery, Zarar Ahmad Muqbil, Fawzia Koofi, Enayatullah Baligh, Mohammad Natiqi and Khalid Noor are the seven members of the Contact Group representing Afghanistan. The Taliban's Contact Group members are Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, Abbas Stanekzai, Noorullah Noori, Shaikh Delawar and Shaikh Qasim. The Contact Groups were reportedly formed to decide on an agenda, the code of conduct and a due date for the first round of the IAN.
It is pertinent to recall here that, according to the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban, the IAN was scheduled to start from March 10, 2020. However, it has taken over six months for the two sides to hold the first ceremonial meeting on September 12, 2020.
The over six months delay to start the process was inevitable, given the distrust between the Taliban and the Afghanistan Government. Reports indicate that the ongoing delay is because of the disagreement between the two sides over ‘key issues’, including religious matters.
Indeed, on September 19, 2020, the Taliban asserted that establishment of an Islamic system in the country is a focal point of all discussions. In the weekly comment section of its official website Voice of Jihad, the Taliban stated,
In the previous edition of a weekly comment, published on September 12, 2020, the Taliban had stated,
On the same day, delivering his speech at the opening ceremony of intra-Afghan negotiations held in Doha, Deputy of ‘Islamic Emirate’ and Chief of Political Office of the Taliban, Mullah Baradar Akhund had stated that the aim of IAN is to “establish an Islamic government”:
Evidently, the Taliban’s position is that nothing less than an agreement over the establishment of an Islamic State in Afghanistan is acceptable within IAN. On the other hand, the Afghanistan Government is very much against this proposal. On September 17, Acting Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid asserted,
He was referring to the Taliban’s harsh five years of Islamic rule between 1996 and 2001, when girls were banned from education and women from outdoor activities.
Another major issue of contention is the cease-fire agreement. The Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah, in his remarks at the opening ceremony of the IAN held in Doha, had demanded an agreement over a permanent ceasefire, declaring that we can bring “happiness to each Afghan’s home” assuring “success of the current negotiations, announcing a permanent ceasefire, and ending the war”. He added further,
Similarly, Acting Foreign Minister Mohammad Haneef Atmar announced, “To achieve a lasting peace, we consider the ceasefire a fundamental step.”
The Taliban, on the other hand, has remained adamant that it will not agree to a ceasefire. In an interview with the Tolo News on September 16, 2020, Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem has said that the group will not agree to a ceasefire unless the peace negotiators can discuss the main cause of the war in the country at the negotiating table. He argued,
He also claimed that the Taliban has reduced the level of violence with the start of the preliminary round of the talks.
Rejecting Naeem’s claim, Acting Defence Minister Asadullah Khalid noted, on September 17, that despite the ongoing talks in Doha, the fighting had increased: “The enemies achieve nothing in their attacks, and just take casualties… the enemy should stop thinking that it can collapse the Afghan army again on orders from Punjab (Pakistan)."
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), between September 12 and September 20, Afghanistan recorded at least 183 fatalities including three civilians, 35 Security Force personal and 145 terrorists, in Taliban-led violence. During the earlier corresponding period (September 3-11), Afghanistan 237 fatalities were recorded, including six civilians, four SF personnel, 224 terrorists, and three Not Specified. These numbers suggest that despite a slight short-term deceleration in violence, there is no significant change in strategic intent or capacities of the Taliban.
Indeed, the possibility of the success of the talks faces severe challenges. On September 17, 2020, Abdullah Abdullah rightly observed that “these talks will be very hard” and “we will face issues that will need hard decisions to be made.” Earlier on September 11, 2020, Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad had stated that “there are difficulties, significant challenges on the way to reaching agreement”.
Indeed, there are issues which have the potential to push the talks into a deadlock. Though a beginning has been made, the end is very far and very uncertain.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia September 14-20, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Telengana
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Three issues holding up start of intra-Afghan talks in Doha: Three issues specifically the name given to the war, the religious legal system chosen for the negotiations, and the Taliban's demand to include the US-Taliban agreement as the foundation of the talks are holding up the talks between the Afghan Government and Taliban. The regulations of the talks initially had 23 articles. Eight days after the opening ceremony of the intra-Afghan negotiations, the teams from both sides are seeking an agreement on three of over 20 articles of rules and regulations for the peace talks in Doha. Tolo News, September 21, 2020.
Violence remains high despite intra-Afghan peace talks, says Acting Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid: On September 17, Afghan Acting Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid said that violence remains high despite intra-Afghan peace talks opening in Doha. “Unfortunately, violence has increased, there may be different reasons, sometimes, it is for making gains and bargaining better at the table,” Khalid said speaking at a ceremony of delivery of four new A-29 Super Tucano aircraft to Afghan forces. Khalid said that Afghan forces did not carry out any attack against the Taliban. 1TV, September 18, 2020.
4,776 IEDs defused in the past six months, says Afghan MoD: On September 20, The Ministry of Defense said that the Afghan National Army (ANA) has recovered and defused 4,776 Improvised Explosive Device (IEDs) across the country during the last six months. The MoD further said that the IEDs had been planted by the Taliban on public roads, in residential areas and on highways. Tolo News, September 21, 2020.
Less than 200 Al Qaeda terrorists left in Afghanistan, says US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that there are fewer than 200 Al Qaeda terrorists left in Afghanistan. The Khaama Press News Agency, September 18, 2020.
No ceasefire until cause of war is discussed, says Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem: Taliban’s spokesman Mohammad Naeem, during an interview in Qatar, said that the group will not agree to a ceasefire unless the Government peace negotiators discuss the main cause of the war in the country. Mohammad Naeem also claimed that the Taliban has reduced the level of violence with the start of the preliminary round of the talks even though the Government has continued offensive operations. It does not make sense to end 20 years of war in one hour. Tolo News, September 18, 2020.
Prison authorities put on alert following threat by militant outfits to break out their activists from jail: Authorities of all the prisons in the country have been put on alert following a threat by militant outfits to break out their activists from jail. Inspector General (Prisons), Brigadier General AKM Mustafa Kamal Pasha sent out letters to all the prisons concerned containing 18 specific instructions. The instructions by the chief of prison authorities, include forming special strike forces and keeping a close watch on the movement of all inmates, especially members and leaders of militants’ outfits, notorious criminals, and detainees of sensitive cases. Dhaka Tribune, September 15, 2020.
NIA arrests nine Al-Qaeda terrorists in multiple raids in Kerala and West Bengal: On September 19, nine Al-Qaeda terrorists were arrested in National Investigation Agency (NIA) led multiple raids in Kerala and West Bengal. NIA conducted 11 raids in Murshidabad District of West Bengal and Ernakulam District in Kerala and arrested six terrorists from Bengal and three terrorists were arrested from Kerala. A large quantity of incriminating materials including digital devices, documents, jihadi literature, sharp weapons, country-made firearms, a locally fabricated body armour, articles and literature used for making home-made explosive devices have been seized from the possession of the arrested terrorists. NDTV, September 19, 2020.
UMHA informs Parliament that IS is active in at least a dozen states in India: Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on September 15, has informed the Parliament that Islamic State (IS) is active in at least a dozen states in India. Minister of State for Home, G Kishan Reddy in a reply in Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) said that IS is most active in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and a number of other states. India Today, September 16, 2020.
Prime Minister should know what’s happening to citizens, says Islamabad High Court: The Islamabad High Court (IHC) on September 17 directed Mirza Shahzad Akbar, the adviser to the Prime Minister (PM) on accountability, to appear in person on September 21 to explain whether any advice has been tendered to PM Imran Khan regarding the deplorable law and order situation in the Federal Capital of Islamabad and security of ordinary citizens. IHC Chief Justice Athar Minallah heard the petitions filed against the abysmal law and order situation in Islamabad. Tribune, September 19, 2020.
Gilgit Baltistan’ to be made province soon, says Kashmir Minister Ali Amin Gandapur: The government has decided to elevate Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) to the status of a full-fledged province with all constitutional rights, including its representation in the Senate and the National Assembly, Minister Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan Affairs Ali Amin Gandapur said on September 16. “After consultation with all stakeholders, the federal government has decided in principle to give constitutional rights to Gilgit-Baltistan,” the minister said. Tribune, September 18, 2020.
964 assets of banned JuD and JeM frozen, Federal Interior Ministry informs Senate: The Government has frozen 964 properties of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), the Federal Interior Ministry informed the Senate (Upper House of Parliament) on September 16. The Federal Interior Ministry told the Senate that 907 of the frozen properties belonged to JuD and 57 to JeM. Tribune, September 17, 2020.
Government has not taken any decision to withdraw from UNHRC, says Director General of Government Information Nalaka Kaluwewa: Director General of Government Information Nalaka Kaluwewa in a statement on September 18 said that the Government has not taken any decision to withdraw from the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Refuting certain media reports which claimed that the Government has decided to withdraw from the UNHRC, Kaluwewa said that during the Cabinet Media Briefing held on September 17 at the Government Information Department, Minister Keheliya Rambukwella didn’t mention about Sri Lanka’s withdrawal from the UNHRC and he only mentioned that Sri Lanka has already taken the necessary steps to withdraw from the co-sponsorship of Resolution 30/1. Daily News, September 19, 2020.
Cabinet decides to present 20th Amendment to Constitution without changes: The Cabinet of Ministers at the weekly Cabinet meeting chaired by President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa on September 16 decided to present the 20th Amendment to the Constitution as it was gazetted with no changes. According to Government sources, the Cabinet has agreed to make any amendments to the proposed draft Constitution in Parliament. At the Cabinet meeting, the 20th Amendment to the Constitution has been discussed at length. Colombo Page, September 18, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend