South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

AFGHANISTAN

 

   

Intimidatory Negotiations
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
 

In its attempt to cross the last hurdle to the Intra-Afghan Negotiation (IAN), the Afghanistan Government on August 13, 2020, started the process of releasing the last batch of 400 'high value' Taliban prisoners. The Office of the National Security Council tweeted on August 14, 2020,

The Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan yesterday released 80 Taliban convicts out of the 400 that the Consultative Loya Jirga sanctioned for release to speed up efforts for direct talks and a lasting, nationwide ceasefire… All released Taliban prisoners vowed to return to peaceful life after their release and not to fight the Afghan people again.

The move followed President Ashraf Ghani signing a decree on August 10, 2020, facilitating the release of the last batch of prisoners.

Earlier, on August 9, 2010, speaking at the closing session of the Consultative Peace Jirga, President Ghani stated,

Today (August 9) I will sign the decree that I was not able in my life to sign it, because it was higher than my authorities. Now with your consensus and moral decision, I will sign decree of releasing these 400 prisoners and they will get released.

The decree was, however, signed on August 10.

Significantly, the final resolution of the Consultative Peace Jirga, held between August 7-9, 2020, had 25 recommendations, one of which states,

The jirga approves the release of 400 prisoners demanded by the Taliban in order to remove obstacles to the start of the peace negotiations, to stop the bloodshed and observe public interest and good.

It is pertinent to recall here that President Ghani, during his Eid-ul-Adha message on July 31, 2020, had categorically said,

Even though the government of Afghanistan was not bound by any commitments in the US-Taliban agreement, we released 4600 Taliban prisoners from the list, provided by the group, to set the stage for beginning of peace negotiations… I want to clarify an important issue for the people of Afghanistan. In the list that Taliban provided to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, some 400 prisoners are included in the list that according to the Afghanistan Constitution and the Afghan Penal Code, the President of Afghanistan has no authority to issue order on their release… I repeat it. I do not have the authority to release them. I have to consult with the nation and call for a consultative Loya Jirga to be able to make a decision on those 400 prisoners. The Loya Jirga will be convened soon.

In his message he also announced the release of 500 Taliban prisoners who were not part of the Taliban 'list'.

According to the Taliban, the release of Taliban prisoners was a prerequisite to start the IAN as per the US-Taliban agreement signed on February 29, 2020. The Taliban had reiterated this position time and again. Most recently, reacting to the signing of the decree by Ghani, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen, on August 10, asserted, "Our stance is clear, if the prisoner release is completed, then we are ready for the intra-Afghan talks within a week."

Though the Ghani Government started the process of release of the last batch of Taliban prisoners on August 13, it clearly indicated that it has done this under the pressure of the US. Ghani made this crystal clear in a conversation with the Council on Foreign Relations on August 13, noting,

Until now, there has been a lot of pressure, requests from the Afghan government. Now the balance shifts because we have taken all the risks because we are a state. We were not party to an agreement to release 5,000 Taliban but out of the imperative of wanting peace in the conviction, we did it… The list is likely to pose a danger both to us and to you [US] and to the world because it is the drug dealers and hardened criminals - that has been shared with all our allies and friends - but again this is a step that we have considered necessary.

According to reports, government data states that out of the 400 prisoners in question, 156 had been sentenced to death, 105 were accused of murder, 34 were accused of kidnapping that led to murder, 51 were accused of drug smuggling, 44 were on the blacklist of the Afghan government and its allies, six were accused of assorted other crimes, and four of unspecified crimes.

Some countries have already demanded that some of these prisoners not be released. France's Foreign Ministry stated, on August 15,

France is particularly concerned by the presence, among the individuals liable to be released, of several terrorists convicted of killing French citizens in Afghanistan. It firmly opposes the liberation of individuals convicted of crimes against French nationals, in particular soldiers and humanitarian workers. As a result, we have immediately asked the Afghan authorities not to proceed with the release of these terrorists.

According to reports, France has specifically opposed the release of two Taliban terrorists - Zia Ahmad and Abdul Nabi - who had killed a French woman, Bettina Goislard, an employee of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, in Ghazni, on November 16, 2003.

As expected, on August 13 the Taliban blamed the Government of making attempts to "create obstacles to peace" and "and to provoke the international community through propaganda." Things got worse on August 15, 2020, when the Taliban reiterated,

The Islamic Emirate does not recognize the Kabul administration as a government but views it as western imported structure working for the continuation of American occupation.

Meanwhile, data indicates that violence persists in Afghanistan. On August 13, 2020, the Afghan Ministry of Interior disclosed that at least 121 Afghan civilians were killed and 336 were wounded in Taliban attacks in 29 Provinces over the preceding two weeks. This means that approximately 8.64 civilians were killed daily over 14 days. This 14-day period coincides with Kabul taking determined action to release the last batch of prisoners in order to appease the Taliban. On July 31, 2020, President Ghani announced the calling of the Jirga and, on August 10, the signing of the decree to release the prisoners. The daily average civilian fatalities worked out at of 7.04 during the first six months of 2019 (1,282 killed in 182 days), according to UNAMA reports. In July, according to media reports, the daily average fell to 3.51 (109 civilians killed in 31 days). The Taliban clearly chose to escalate violence precisely at the point when the Government was doing everything to meet their demands.

The Taliban’s rejection of the Afghan Government’s legitimacy and the escalating violence at critical junctures of the implementation process of the US-Taliban peace deal are disturbing reminders that the Taliban is likely to use extreme violence as leverage during negotiations, or even to pursue maximalist goals to overwhelm Kabul – with inevitable overt or covert support from Pakistan – once the Western withdrawal is complete, and US Coalition Forces are out of the equation.

INDIA

 

   

LWE: Shrinking Space in AOB Region
Indrajit Sharma
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 3, 2020, two civilians, identified as Mondipalli Ajay Kumar and Mondipalli Mohan Rao, were killed in a landmine explosion near Chintalaveedhi, located in the interior part of the ‘Andhra-Odisha Border (AOB)’ region, in Visakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh. According to the Police, the two tribal youth ventured into the forest in search of cattle when they inadvertently stepped on a landmine, planted by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), leading to their death on the spot.

On July 26, 2020, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire with the Security Forces (SFs) at Gangaraju Madugula, in the AOB region, in Visakhapatnam District.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the AOB region – comprising of four north coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam) and the five Districts of southern Odisha (Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam) – have recorded five Maoist-linked fatalities (three civilians and two Maoists) in the current year, thus far (data till August 16, 2020). During the corresponding period in 2019, the AOB region had recorded 12 fatalities (five civilians and seven Maoists). Maoist-linked fatalities in the AOB region stood at 23 (seven civilians, one trooper, and 15 Maoists) through 2019.

Since 2001, when the ‘Andhra-Orissa Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC)’ was formed, the AOB region has recorded 820 fatalities (314 civilians, 219 SF personnel, 273 Left Wing Extremists (LWEs) and 14 Not Specified, data till August 16, 2020). A high of 96 fatalities was recorded in 2008, while a low of 13 was recorded in 2004. Overall fatalities in the region have followed a cyclical trend. 

Fatalities in the AOB Region

Year	Civilians	Security Forces	Left Wing Extremists	Not Specified	Total
2001	4	21	5	1	31
2002	5	13	3	1	22
2003	6	27	10	0	43
2004	3	5	3	2	13
2005	14	8	11	1	34
2006	3	5	14	0	22
2007	12	4	18	2	36
2008	15	61	17	3	96
2009	23	24	17	4	68
2010	41	16	25	0	82
2011	25	2	14	0	41
2012	22	10	12	0	44
2013	25	6	23	0	54
2014	32	0	9	0	41
2015	22	3	20	0	45
2016	22	3	37	0	62
2017	21	9	7	0	37
2018	9	1	11	0	21
2019	7	1	15	0	23
2020	3	0	2	0	5
Total	314	219	273	14	820

Source: SATP, Data till August 16, 2020

The Security situation in the region has, however, seen a constant improvement over the past few years. Civilian fatalities, a key index of security in an area/region, have fallen, on year on year basis, since 2017. As against 22 fatalities recorded in this category in 2016, there were 21 fatalities in 2017, nine in 2018, seven in 2019, and three in 2020 (data till August 16, 2020).

During these years (2017-2020), SFs have also made considerable gains on the ground. The SF:LWE kill ratio since 2017 stands at 1:3.18, much higher than the overall ratio of 1:24, albeit at much lower levels of total fatalities. Significantly, in the 10 years, between 2001 and 2010, the ratio was in favour of the Maoists, at 1.49:1.

SFs have arrested two Maoists in the region in the current year (data till August 16, 2020), in addition to 21 in 2019, 60 in 2018, and 32 in 2017. Mounting SF pressure has also resulted in the surrender of 23 Maoists in the current year, in addition to 43 in 2019, 51 in 2018, and 102 in 2017.

The twin encounters in the Bejingi Forest area between Ramgarh and Panasput in Malkangiri District on October 24 and 27, 2016, resulting in the death of 28 and two Maoist cadres, respectively, dealt a major blow to the outfit in the AOB region.

Among the nine Districts of the AOB region, Malkangiri recorded the highest of 349 fatalities (135 civilians, 108 SF personnel, 105 LWEs and one Not Specified) followed by Koraput, with 173 fatalities (72 civilians, 54 SF personnel, 44 LWEs and three Not Specified); Vishakhapatnam, 152 fatalities (67 civilians, 19 SF personnel, 63 LWEs and three Not Specified); Rayagada, 57 fatalities (19 civilians, 10 SF personnel, 27 LWEs and one Not Specified); East Godavari, 34 fatalities (five civilians, 11 SF personnel, 13 LWEs and five Not Specified); Vizianagaram, 23 fatalities (seven civilians, six SF personnel, nine LWEs and one Not Specified); Gajapati, 22 fatalities (two civilians, 10 SF personnel and 10 LWEs); Srikakulam, six fatalities (four civilians, one SF trooper and one LWE); and Ganjam, four fatalities (thee civilians and one LWE).

The AOB region has for long served as a safe haven for the Maoists because of its terrain and dense forest cover. Part of the region adjoins the geographical spread popularly known as Swabhiman Anchal, earlier called as the ‘cut-off area’, which falls in the east of the Balimela river sandwiched between Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The ‘cut-off’ area was a long-time sanctuary and stronghold for the Maoists.

Nonetheless, of late, this Maoist safe haven has been eroding with a steady decline in their presence as well as a growing crisis in leadership. A June 13, 2020, report observes that CPI-Maoist cadres in the erstwhile ‘cut-off’ area of AOB were facing a leadership crisis, as the link between the cadre base and the main leadership has reportedly been severed. According to the report, after the October 2016 twin encounters, the Andhra Pradesh Police have been on the offensive. This was well supported by the Odisha Government, which not only increased the footprint of its Special Operations Group (SOG) and District Voluntary Force (DVF) in the ‘cut-off area’, but also increased the presence of the Border Security Force (BSF) by setting up new camps in Jayapayi, Hantalaguda and Darlabeda. On the Andhra Pradesh side, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) has set up two new outposts at Nurmati and Rudakota.

Further, according to Superintendent of Police (SP), Visakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh, Attada Babujee, with the coming up of the armed outposts and BSF camps and increased surveillance and combing, the Maoists have been pushed back to a small pocket to the north of the ‘cut-off area’. Fearing exposure, the main leaders such as Akkiraju Haragopal aka Ramakrishna aka R.K., ‘Central Committee’ member; Gajarla Ravi aka Uday aka Ganesh, ‘secretary AOBSZC’; and Chalapathi, Central Committee member, have reportedly moved to the Gumma region of Odisha.

150-odd villages of Kudumulu Gumma Block (administrative unit) were separated from the rest of the Block by the Balimela Reservoir and were consequently called the 'cut-off area'. However, with the inauguration of the Gurupriya Setu (bridge) on July 26, 2018, the area and its more than 20,000 people got connected to the mainland of Malkangiri District. According to a July 26, 2020, report, with the efforts of the District administration, the development outreach was being extended to the remotest corners of the area. The region is now known as Swabhiman Anchal (Self-respect Zone). The collector of Malkangiri, Manish Agarwal, observed,

The Gurupriya bridge has facilitated the construction of several kilometres of roads inside Swabhiman Anchal. Bus and ambulance services have been introduced in the area. Also, the administration has dug more than 250 tube-wells, electrified villages and strengthened the primary education system and healthcare in the area on a priority basis.

Moreover, a June 28, 2020, report noted that the COVID-19 pandemic had hit the Maoists hard, as the usual supply routes for procuring their rations through the interior villages in the AOB region have been sealed. An unnamed Police officer observes,

Naxal movement along the borders is very common. Because of the difficult terrain, the Andhra-Odisha border area is a haven for their activities. Maoists get their essentials from weekly markets or towns. Since vehicular movement is restricted, Maoists are entirely dependent on villagers who are now reluctant to go out of their homes amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

The recent crises faced by the Maoists have been capitalized on by the SFs as well as the administration, which have been focusing on developing the area.

On June 19, 2020, the Director General of Police of Odisha, Abhay, asserted that the CPI-Maoist violence is on the decline in the Swabhiman Anchal in the region. The DGP noted,

Three security vacuums have been filled up in the erstwhile cut-off region in the last six months. They include enhancing Police presence in the region, operationalization of BSF camps in Jantapai, Hantalguda, and Darlabeda and accelerating development works.

More recently, on 24 July 2020, DGP Abhay said that "apart from carrying out anti-Maoist operations, development activities in the affected areas have also helped curb Naxal activities." The officer further added that seven major roads are under construction in Malkangiri. Currently, as a part of the focused initiatives of the Odisha Government to usher development, road connectivity has been given top priority and several road projects have been taken up in the area. These are:

Badapada to Jantapayi (work completed) Jantapayi to Jodambo (Single layer BT completed) Jodambo to Guarasethu to Panasput (work is being started) Janturayi to Gajalmamudi (metalling work underway) Darlabeda to Kutunipadar (metalling work going on) Jantapayi to Papermetal to Dhuliput to Singabaram (metalling work in progress) and Hantalguda to Kalibandha to Bandhaguda (metalling and BT work in progress).

Nonetheless, worries still persist. A July 31, 2020, report highlighted that, despite strict vigilance by SFs, the Maoists observed their 'Martyrs Week' (July 28 - August 3) in a grand way at a "martyrs' pylon" close to the Andhra Pradesh borders in the AOB region and paid tributes to their 'martyrs'. They conducted a meeting with the people of around 15 villages in the 'cut-off area' of Malkangiri, in which their top leader and 'AOBSZC secretary' Gajarla Ravi aka Uday aka Ganesh addressed the gathering.

Earlier, on July 23, 2020, the 'East Division Committee secretary' of CPI-Maoist, Aruna aka Venkata Ravi Chaitanya, while giving a call to the public to observe 'Martyr's Week', conveyed that the 'East Division' would continue to fight for the people's rights and support the people's movements. Following this, on July 25, 2020, the Maoists dug up a road between Tamilawada and Chintagupa to disrupt vehicular movement of SFs in the Visakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh.

Further, according to a July 28, 2020, report, the 'Koraput-Visakha Secretary', Benu, released an audio message in which he talked about the alleged atrocities of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Governments and urged the local masses to join the Maoist 'revolution'.

The AOB region remains a significant shelter zone for the Maoists and they are currently desperate to make every effort to keep the remaining safe havens in the region intact. SFs of both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha need to continue to act in coordination and sustain their offensives to transform the AOB region into a Maoist free zone.

NEWS BRIEFS