South Asia Terrorism Portal
JeM: Intensifying Efforts Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Four Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terrorists were killed in an encounter with the Security Forces (SFs) on November 19, 2020, at Nagrota in Jammu District, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Senior Superintendent of Police, Jammu District, Shridhar Patil stated, “Around 5 am some terrorists opened fire at security forces near Ban Toll Plaza in Nagrota area. They were hiding in a vehicle”. Two SF personnel suffered injuries in the operation. However, the driver fled from the spot as security personnel approached the vehicle. A large consignment of arms and ammunition, including six AK-56 rifles, five AK-47 rifles, three pistols, 16 AK magazines, a packet of RDX, 20 Chinese hand grenades, six UBGL grenades and 20 kilograms of explosive were recovered from the encounter site.
Investigations so far have revealed that the terrorists trained in ‘commando warfare’ walked nearly 30 kilometers from the JeM camp at Shakargah in Pakistan to the Samba (Jammu and Kashmir) border and then to the ‘pick-up’ point at Jatwal. There then boarded a truck (JK01AL 1055) between 2.30 and 3 am [IST] in the night and were seen crossing the Sarore toll plaza towards Jammu at 3.44 AM. The truck then moved towards Kashmir, using the Narwal bypass route. The SFs intercepted the truck around 4.45 AM at the Ban toll plaza in the Nagrota area.
Further, it has been disclosed that Mufti Abdul Rauf Asghar, the de facto chief of the outfit at a time when his brother, Maulana Masood Azhar Alvi, the founder and chief of the outfit, is reported terminally ill, monitored the infiltration from Bhawalpur with Qari Zarar. The ‘launcher’ of the infiltrators was Kashif Jan, who handles all the JeM movements into South Kashmir, and reports directly to Mufti Rauf Asghar.
Meanwhile, an unnamed official source disclosed, “A few days ago, Abdul Rauf Asghar aka Rauf Lala was seen across the International Border in Shakargarh area of Narowal district. The area has launch pads (to push terrorists into India).” Intelligence agencies had, indeed, warned of a possible infiltration bid and a major terror attack on November 26 (coinciding with the November 26, 2008, Mumbai attacks). Reports also indicate that officials suspect that the terrorists were planning “something big” ahead of the eight-phase District Development Council (DDC) elections, which are scheduled to be held from November 28 to December 22.
India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) thus noted,
It is pertinent to recall here that the National Investigation Agency (NIA) is already investigating JeM's Nagrota Infiltration Transportation Module Case. The case pertains to an incident on January 31, 2020, when a truck carrying three freshly infiltrated Pakistani terrorists was stopped for checking by the SFs at Ban Toll Plaza, Nagrota, Jammu, on the Pathankot-Srinagar Highway at 5:00 am. While the driver Sameer Ahmad Dar and his two associates, Asif Ahmad Malik and Sartaj Mantoo, escaped taking advantage of the pre-dawn darkness, the heavily-armed Pakistani terrorists hiding inside the cargo cabin of the truck started firing at the police party grievously injuring one trooper. In the ensuing search operation launched by the security forces in the Ban forest area, the three Pakistani terrorists were killed, while the driver and his two associates were arrested. On July 27, 2020, the NIA filed the charge-sheet against six accused persons. The charge-sheet noted, inter alia,
Though over a month is still left, 2020 has already recorded the highest ever number of CFA violations (3,629) in a single year, since 2005, when the first incident took place. This comes on the tail of the previous high of 3,168 in 2019. Pakistan violates the ceasefire with the objective of giving cover to terrorist infiltration, and an escalation indicates intensified efforts to this end. Available data suggests that, as compared to 140 successful infiltrations in 2019, only around 30 terrorists have managed to enter J&K from across the Border, though a large number of aborted attempts go undocumented as the terrorists fail to breach the border. Vijay Kumar, Inspector General of Police, Kashmir Range, disclosed, on September 25, 2020, that 170 to 200 militants were active in Kashmir, of which 40 were foreigners. Reports, meanwhile indicate that at least 600 terrorists were currently waiting at various launch pads across the border, to infiltrate into Indian Territory.
Worryingly, JeM succeeded in carrying out attacks in India using the same modus operandi. For instance, on January 1-2, 2016, at least seven SF personnel were killed in an attack by JeM terrorists at an Indian Air Force frontier base at Pathankot in Punjab. The terrorists, who infiltrated from Pakistan, first killed one civilian en route to the Air Force base. The attack ended with Indian SFs killing four Pakistani terrorists.
Of the three major Pakistan-backed terror outfits operating in J&K, each of which also has a history of carrying out attacks in other parts of India – Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), and JeM – JeM has returned to prominence over last few years, with the help of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). JeM is the current favorite of ISI simply because LeT has come under the increased scrutiny of the international community, particularly since the 26/11 Mumbai attack, while HM has become a depleted force.
On March 15, 2019, NIA registered a case against JeM, noting:
Later, on September 16, 2019, NIA filed a charge sheet which read,
JeM is making attempts top create disturbances not only in J&K, but in the rest of India. Two JeM terrorists were arrested in the night of November 16 from Delhi. Abdul Latif and Mohammed Ashraf Khatana were arrested near the Millennium Park in Delhi’s Sarai Kale Khan. Investigators said the two were planning an attack in Delhi and had also planned to escape to Pakistan after their ‘job’ was done. Latif is a resident of Doru village in the Baramulla District of J&K, and Khatana is a resident of Hat Mulla village in Kupwara District, J&K.
The volatility at the border in J&K at this point of time is at its maximum with Pakistan’s clear intention of facilitating the infiltration of the maximum possible number of terrorists before the onset of winter.
A Pervasive Darkness S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 21, 2020, eight civilians were killed and another 31 were injured in a series of rocket attacks in Kabul city. The Interior Affairs Ministry said 23 rockets were fired on different parts of Kabul.
On November 18, 2020, seven civilians were killed and six were injured in a Taliban mortar attack in the Taloka area in Kunduz city (Kunduz Province).
On November 10, 2020 the Taliban shot and killed three civilians while they were praying in a mosque in the Faizabad District of Jowzjan Province. On the same day, a mortar fired by the Taliban landed in a house in Zari District, Kandahar Province, killing four women.
On November 8, 2020, eight civilians were killed and seven were injured after three mortars fired by Taliban hit residential houses in the Naw Abad area in Ghazni city.
Data released by the Ministries of Defense and Interior Affairs on November 20, 2020, revealed that, over the preceding six months, the Taliban has carried attacks, including 50 suicide attacks, across the country, in which 1,210 civilians have been killed. Tariq Arian, spokesman for the Ministry of Interior Affairs, disclosed, “1,210 civilians were martyred and 2,500 more were wounded in Taliban attacks”.
According to 49th Quarterly Report of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), released on October 30, 2020, at least 2,561 civilian casualties were reported between July 1 and September 30, 2020, which included 876 deaths and 1,685 injuries. The report noted that, in line with the continued rise in violence, this quarter’s (July 1–September 30) casualties increased by 43 per cent, compared to preceding quarter (April 1–June 30, 2020) which had recorded 2,085 civilian casualties, including 1,374 deaths and 711 injuries. The report further observed that 83 per cent of latest quarter’s civilian casualties were attributed to anti-Government forces (40 per cent to unknown insurgents, 38 per cent to the Taliban, three per cent to the Islamic State and two per cent to the Haqqani Network), roughly the same proportions as preceding quarter’s breakdown. The remaining eight per cent were attributed to pro-Government forces.
The United Nations Assistance Mission’s (UNAMA’s) Third Quarter Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: 2020 (Afghanistan), stated that a total of 29,626 civilians had been killed between January 1, 2009, and September 30, 2020, mostly by Islamist militants with linkages to Al Qaeda.
Highlighting the increased attacks on civilians by the Taliban, Amrullah Saleh, the First Vice President, noted, on November 11, 2020, “The Taliban have decided to target civil society, its members and organizations in Afghanistan’s major cities, who are among the soft targets.”
The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), which is continuously suffering major battlefield losses, also continues to target civilians. UNAMA’s Third Quarter Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: 2020 (Afghanistan) noted that IS-KP was responsible for 392 casualties (132 killed and 260 injured) between January 1 and September 30. UNAMA’s Annual Report 2020, released in February 2020, attributed 1,223 civilian casualties to IS-KP in 2019; 1,871 in 2018; and 843 in 2017. Some of the prominent attacks by the IS-KP in 2020 included:
Civilians have also been the victims of collateral damage in the 'war'. According to UNAMA's latest report covering the period between January 1 and September 30, the Afghan National Security Forces were responsible for 1,376 casualties (466 killed and 910 injured) during this period, almost 23 per cent of the total casualties (5,939). International Forces assisting the Afghan Forces were responsible for 113 civilian casualties (83 killed and 30 injured), i.e. two per cent. Crossfire between the terrorists and the Security Forces resulted in 849 civilian casualties (237 killed and 612 injured).
Deborah Lyons, the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Afghanistan, noted,
Notably, the Taliban has not reduced violence even after the signing of the US-Taliban agreement on February 28, 2020, in Doha, Qatar, and initiating direct talks with the Afghanistan Government on September 12. Security Forces also continue to face violence. According to partial data collected by the Institute for Conflict Management, at least 7,000 Afghan National Defence Security Force (ANDSF) personnel have been killed across the country since the signing of the ceasefire (data till November 22, 2020).
Highlighting the increased violence, President Ashraf Ghani while addressing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit through a video conference on November 10, 2020, observed, “the violence by the Taliban has increased substantially.” Similarly, Abdullah Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, on November 10, 2020, stated that “the scale of war and violence has expanded… At the same time, the two sides are in talks. You might ask what these negotiations mean in the view of the current situation in the country.”
Violence remains high in Afghanistan despite purported peace process ongoing in Doha between negotiating teams of the Afghan Government and the Taliban. As violence surges in Afghanistan, the international community needs to recommit its support for the Afghan people to end the war and building a better future with stability, sound governance and greater economic opportunities, objectives that the Taliban has demonstrated visible contempt for.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia November 16-22, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Bihar
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Punjab
PAKISTAN (Total)
1,210 civilians killed across country over the last six months: Data by Ministries of Defense and Interior Affairs reveal that over the last six months, the Taliban has carried "dozens of attacks across the country, including 50 suicide attacks in which 1,210 civilians have been killed". "1,210 civilians were martyred and 2,500 more were wounded in Taliban attacks," said Tariq Arian, spokesman for the Ministry of Interior Affairs. Tolo News, November 20, 2020.
Taliban attacks centers of 50 districts in 16 provinces after Doha peace deal, says report: Taliban has staged attacks on the centers of at least 50 districts in 16 provinces of the country following the signing of the peace deal with the US in Doha in February 2020 and most of these attacks happened in the last two months after the start of the negotiations in Qatar on September 12, sources from various provinces said on November 19. The sources said that in some of these districts the Taliban captured centers of districts or their attack led to continued clashes between the group and the Afghan Forces. Tolo News, November 20, 2020.
Taliban still operates from Pakistan, states Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid: Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid on November 17, said that the Taliban still have operating bases in Quetta (Balochistan) and Miranshah (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), of Pakistan from where they operate and being sent to Afghanistan for conducting terrorist acts. The Taliban still have bases in Pakistan, are being trained there and then sent to fight in Afghanistan, resided there and still, their wounded are receiving medical treatments, Assadullah Khalid said. Khaama Press, November 18, 2020.
US acting Defense Secretary announces troop reduction in Afghanistan: The US troop presence in Afghanistan to 2,500 by mid-January, 2021, US acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller announced on November 17. Miller made the announcement in remarks to Pentagon reporters that highlighted the next step in what he called "President Trump's plan to bring the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a successful and responsible conclusion and to bring our brave service members home". Tolo News, November 18, 2020.
"Price for leaving Afghanistan too soon could be very high", states NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg: The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on November 17, said "the price for leaving too soon or in an uncoordinated way could be very high," referring to recent reports on Trump administration's plan to reduce its presence in Afghanistan. "Afghanistan risks becoming once again a platform for international terrorists to plan and organize attacks on our homelands. And ISIS (Daesh) could rebuild in Afghanistan the terror caliphate it lost in Syria and Iraq," Stoltenberg said. Tolo News, November 18, 2020.
Pakistani Forces continue providing support to infiltrators, says MEA: On November 19, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) slammed Pakistan stating that Pakistani forces continue to provide supporting cover fire to infiltrators despite repeated calls for restraint and adherence to the ceasefire understanding of 2003. In a statement, MEA Spokesperson Anurag Srivastava stated that the incessant infiltration of terrorists and induction of weapons to fuel terror activities continues unabated which is not possible without the support of Pakistani forces deployed along the Line of Control (LoC). Indian Express, November 20, 2020.
Alternative proposals on new Constitution handed over to Prime Minister: A book containing alternative proposals for a new Constitution for Sri Lanka was handed over to Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on November 16 by the President of the Buddhist Congress Jagath Sumathipala. Representing the Buddhasasana Task Force and the All Ceylon Buddhist Congress, the Venerable Maha Sangha presented the book to the Prime Minister at his official residence in Wijerama. The book has been compiled by the National Policy Council, Law, Public Administration, National Security and Foreign Policy Subcommittee of the All Ceylon Buddhist Congress. Colombo Page, November 17, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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