South Asia Terrorism Portal
The Calculus of Violence S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On July 24, 2020, four Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) personnel were killed and four were injured in a Taliban attack on their outpost at Kharistan village in Ghor Province.
On July 21, 2020, seven ANDSF personnel were killed when the Taliban attacked security checkpoints in Takhta Pul District of Kandahar Province.
On July 20, 2020, eight ANDSF personnel were killed and nine others were injured in a suicide car bombing in the Sayed Abad District of Maidan Wardak Province. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.
On July 20, 2020, eight ANDSF personnel were killed and five others wounded when Taliban militants attacked their checkpoint in the Shinwari neighborhood of Kunduz city, the provincial capital of Kunduz Province.
On July 16, 2020, nine ANDSF personnel were killed in a Taliban attack in Dawlat Abad District of Balkh Province.
On July 13, 2020, 14 ANDSF personnel were killed and two were wounded as the Taliban stormed the Security Forces’ (SFs’) checkpoints in Imam-Saib and Chahardara Districts of Kunduz Province.
Even after 149 days of the signing of the US-Taliban agreement on February 28, 2020, in Doha, Qatar, the Taliban has not reduced its violence. According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), after the signing of the US-Taliban agreement, at least 529 ANDSF personnel have been killed and 134 others injured across the country (data till July 26, 2020). Prior to the US-Taliban agreement, in the corresponding period, 386 ANDSF personnel were killed and 41 others were injured across the country.
The SF fatalities figure of 529 since February 29, 2020, however, are likely to be grossly underestimated. Indeed, Jawid Faisal, a spokesman for the Office of National Security Council (ONSC), on June 22, 2020, tweeted,
A report dated July 23, 2020, said that according to the statistics provided by the Afghan Government, after the US-Taliban agreement, 50 security incidents took place per day on average in Afghanistan. The Government data shows that the Taliban and other anti-Government groups are behind 40 attacks a day while the other 10 are attributed to the ANDSF and Operation Resolute Support forces.
According to a UN report released on June 17, 2020, between February 7 and May 14, 2020, United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 5,543 security-related incidents.
Sources indicate that Afghanistan recorded a total of 8,104 fatalities, including 3,156 SF personnel, between March 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020.
According to the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC)’s report on civilian casualties published on July 14, 2020, on average 16 civilians have been killed or wounded every day across the country in the first half of 2020. A total of 1,213 civilians have been killed and 1,744 wounded in 880 separate incidents during the first six months of the year, according to the AIHRC’s report. The AIHRC said Taliban attacks were responsible for 48.5 per cent of the recorded civilian casualties. Government forces are behind 15.5 per cent of the casualties, the Islamic State, 6.3 per cent, and international forces 2.3 per cent. Attacks by unknown perpetrators accounted for 26.7 per cent of the casualties.
There have been rising reports of security threats to the country’s main highways. The Herat – Islam Qala Highway, a key highway used to transport most of the imports from Iran remains unsafe for passengers, Government officials and commercial trucks, due to the presence of terrorists. Yunus Qazizada, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Investment in Herat, observed on April 25, 2020, “We are tired of the lack of security on Herat – Islam Qala Highway. Businessmen cannot travel on this highway.”
On July 6, 2020, Afghan Security Forces clashed with the Taliban at multiple parts of the Baghlan – Balkh Highway, a key route that connects Kabul with the northern and north-eastern Provinces. The clashes started after the Taliban installed a ‘checkpoint’ on the Baghlan-Balkh Highway in the Chashma-e-Shir area and started extorting funds from truck drivers. 16 Taliban militants were killed in the clashes.
On July 7, 2020, Afghan Security Forces had a fierce battle with the Taliban on the Pul-e-Khumri – Samangan highway after the insurgents tried to block the road. Seven Taliban militants were killed in a fierce battle.
Meanwhile, the eleventh report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the United Nations (UN), released on May 27, 2020, stated that the Taliban had failed to fulfil one of the core parts of the US-Taliban agreement, namely that it would break ties with Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda has 400 to 600 operatives active in 12 Afghan Provinces, and is running training camps in the east of the country, according to the report. On July 13, 2020, seven ANDSF personnel were killed and two others were injured in a joint assault by the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State on a checkpoint in the Arghanjkhwa District of Badakhshan Province.
Unhappy over the deteriorating security situation, some Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) members expressed their concerns over growing incidents of violence in the countryon July 5, 2020. Nabia Mustafazada, a lawmaker from Jawzjan Province, noted, “The security situation deteriorates with each passing day, there is instability in the centre and districts. People are worried due to insecurity, targeted attacks, blasts and worsening economic condition.” Similarly, Gul Ahmad Azeemi, a lawmaker from Farah Province, argued, “Individuals who want to sabotage peace process should be stopped; otherwise peace will not be restored in the country.” Meanwhile, the Chairman of the House, Fazal Hadi Muslimyar, observed, “Government and the people of Afghanistan wanted peace but violence should decline and people on both side working against peace should be stopped from their designs.”
Emphasizing the continuing violence by the Taliban, President Ashraf Ghani, while speaking on the first day of the four-day meeting titled "Strengthening Regional and International Consensus" attended by representatives of at least 20 countries and international organizations, including the United States and the UN in Kabul on July 7, 2020, warned that "the peace process will face serious challenges if the Taliban continue the war." Similarly, on July 10, 2020, Abdullah Abdullah, head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, at the end of the four-day meeting, criticized the Taliban for not ending violence in the country and thus preventing the peace process from moving forward. Criticizing the Taliban for the escalating violence, Presidential Palace spokesman Sediq Sediqqi tweeted on July 12, 2020,
Meanwhile, rejecting the call for reduction in violence as a precondition to start the intra-Afghan talks, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid declared, on July 12, 2020, “The prisoner exchange process must be completed and intra-Afghan negotiations launched immediately. This is the most correct and reasonable path towards a resolution.” Once again, blaming the Afghan Government for delays in the intra-Afghan negotiations, Shahabuddin Delawar, a key member of the Taliban’s office in Qatar, speaking during a virtual discussion with other Afghans, on July 19, 2020, asserted, “The responsibility of all bloody incidents over the last four months is on the Afghan government because it should have released our 5,000 prisoners by March 15. We were ready to release their 1,000 prisoners in 10 days.” Based on the peace agreement between the US and Taliban, Afghan Government is required to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners and the Taliban to release 1,000 Government prisoners, before the intra-Afghan talks. So far, the Afghan Government has released 4,250 out of 5,000 prisoners, and the Taliban has released 861 Government prisoners out of 1,000.
Revealing one of the main reasons for not releasing 597 of the 5,000 inmates that were to be freed as part of the confidence-building measures established in the US-Taliban agreement, Ahmad Rashid Totakhil, head of the General Directorate of Prisons, on July 5, 2020, stated, “Murderers are on the Taliban list and the government has resisted. It is a victims’ rights issue and the law does not allow releasing someone under the pretext of being a Taliban member, who is charged with murder or even moral crimes like rape.” The Afghan Government has asked the Taliban to provide a new list for the prisoners who have not been released so far, but the Taliban has insisted on the release of their prisoners based on the existing list. It is useful to recall that the Afghan Government was not a party to the negotiations or the deal in the US-Taliban peace agreement, and is now being forced to deliver on concessions made by the US.
Meanwhile, in defiance of their commitments not to re-join the war, a number of Taliban prisoners who were released by the Afghan Government have reportedly reintegrated with their colleagues on the battlefield. On July, 21, 2020, a Taliban fighter, identified as Shirullah also known as Captain, recently freed from Afghan Government custody as part of peace efforts, was rearrested in the Kofab District of Badakshan Province during an attack on the ANDSF. Again, on July 22, 2020, ANDSF personnel arrested two Taliban prisoners who had been released from the Bagram prison, while they were trying to stage attack on an ANDSF convoy on the Jawzjan-Balkh Highway. Jawid Faisal, a spokesman for the Office of the National Security Council (ONSC) on July 23, 2020, revealed,
Condemning the Taliban for the surge in violence, US special representative on Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, asserted on July 14, 2020, "Violence has been high, especially in recent days and weeks. The Taliban's attacks contradict their commitment to reduce violence until a permanent ceasefire is reached in intra-Afghan talks. "Similarly, describing the Taliban-led violence as unacceptable as efforts are underway to find a negotiated political settlement to the war in the country, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, Ambassador Stefano Pontecorvo, observed on July 21, 2020,
The US-Taliban Agreement as well as the recent Eid ceasefire initiated by the Taliban have failed to reduce the violence. While calibrating violence may be part of the Taliban's strategy to join the negotiations in a position of strength, the present escalation jeopardizes the entire peace process. Clearly, the Taliban's calculus is shifting, even as it consolidates its relationship with the Al Qaeda, and makes a concentrated bid to seize control of widening swathes of the country. As the peace deal unravels, the imprudence of the US initiative and the hasty withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan is increasingly apparent. The Taliban's aims have always been maximalist, its engagement in negotiations tactical and opportunistic, and its understanding of the weakness of its adversaries - both domestic and foreign - profound.
'KKBN Division': Maoists Fizzle Out Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
on July 23, 2020, two Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, including a woman, were killed in an exchange of fire with the Security Forces (SFs) in the Sirla Reserve Forest area under Tumudibandha Police limits in the Kandhamal District of Odisha. Director General of Police (DGP) Abhay disclosed, “The Police Forces fired in self-defense. After the exchange of fire ended, the SOG [Special Operations Group] and DVF [District Voluntary Force] spotted two bodies – a male and a female. Both were in Maoist uniforms. We also recovered one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle, one carbine, and two country-made firearms.” The identities of the slain Maoists are yet to be ascertained.
On July 6, 2020, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire with the SFs, again in the Sirla Reserve Forest area under the Tumudibandha Police Station. According to an Odisha Police release, "On Monday at 6.30 p.m., Maoists opened fire from an advantageous position and lobbed grenades at SOG and DVF jawans [troopers]. Police party immediately took cover and asked Maoists to stop firing and surrender. Some police personnel sustained injuries." The body of a slain Maoist along with two country-made weapons was recovered from the encounter site. The identity of the slain Maoist is yet to be ascertained.
On July 5, 2020, four CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an exchange of fire with DVF and SOG personnel in the Sirla Reserve Forest. Though the individual identities of the slain Maoists are yet to ascertained, it was found that all of them belonged to the 'Kandhamal-Kalahandi-Boudh-Nayagarh (KKBN) Division'. Arms and ammunition, including three Self-Loading Rifles (SLRs), one INSAS assault rifle, two country made weapons, SLR 16, Maoist literature and other articles were recovered from the encounter site.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the ‘KKBN division’ – covering the Kandhamal, Kalahandi, Boudh, and Nayagarh Districts of Odisha – has accounted for at least eight Maoist-linked fatalities (one civilian and seven Maoists) in the current year, thus far (data till July 26, 2020). During the corresponding period in 2019, the ‘division’ had recorded four fatalities (three civilians and one Maoist), and another three fatalities in the remaining period of 2019, to take the year’s tally to seven (five civilians and two Maoists).
The first ever fatality in the ‘division’ was registered on February 15, 2008, when 14 Police personnel and two civilians were killed, and four Policemen sustained injuries, when around 500 heavily armed CPI-Maoist cadres carried out a coordinated attack targeting a Police Training School, the District armoury, and District Police Station near Daspalla in the Nayagarh District. Three Maoists were also killed in the incident. Since then, the ‘division’ has accounted for a total of 94 fatalities, including 43 civilians, 21 SF personnel, and 30 Maoists (data till July 26, 2020), including the fatalities recorded on February 15, 2008. During this period (February 15, 2008, and July 26, 2020), Odisha has recorded a total of 760 fatalities (324 civilians, 171 SF personnel, 265 Maoists). Thus the ‘KKBN division’ alone accounted for 12.36 per cent of total Maoist-linked fatalities in the State.
Fatalities in 'KKBN Division' and Odisha: 2008*-2020**
Year
'KKBN division'
Odisha
Civilians
SFs
Maoists
Total
2008
8
14
3
25
21
77
31
129
2009
2
0
1
29
15
75
2010
6
62
18
30
110
2011
9
37
5
67
2012
4
32
61
2013
22
7
58
2014
11
42
2015
23
47
2016
27
72
2017
38
2018
13
2019
10
19
2020
43
94
324
171
265
760
Source: SATP, *Data since February 15, 2008; **Data till July 26, 2020
A cursory look at the fatalities in the ‘KKBN division’ suggests that SFs, after suffering a major jolt on February 15, 2008, succeeded in putting immense pressure on the Maoists. While the overall ratio of fatalities in the ‘division’ stands in favour of the SFs at 1:1.42, it improved dramatically between 2013 and 2020, at 1:26. The last SF fatality was recorded on June 4, 2017, when a SOG trooper was killed and six were injured in a CPI-Maoist ambush near Khamankhol under Baliguda Police Station limits in the Kandhamal District.
Moreover, since February 15, 2008, SFs have arrested at least 59 Maoists from the ‘KKBN division’, and mounting pressure resulted in the surrender of another 17 (data till July 26, 2020). In addition, combing operations by the SFs resulted in the recovery of arms and ammunition on 59 occasions between February 15, 2008, and July 26, 2020. Most recently, on July 2, 2020, SFs busted a CPI-Maoist camp in the Samarbandha Forest area under Phiringia Police Station limits in Kandhamal District, and recovered 15 kilograms of explosives containing urea, gunpowder and other substances, 28 detonators, digital multimeters, bags, blackcaps, rechargeable batteries, camp equipment, Maoist banners, posters and literature.
Despite SF successes, however, civilians continue to suffer, though significant improvement have been recorded between 2013 and 2020, as the SFs have come to dominate the region. 20 civilian fatalities were recorded during these seven years and seven months, as compared to 22 fatalities in the preceding four years and 11 months (approximately) between February 15, 2008, and December 31, 2012.
The ‘KKBN division’, spread over a geographical area of 22,562 square kilometres, offers crucial strategic advantages to the Maoists. The forest cover in the ‘division’ is 11,604 square kilometres, i.e., about 51.43 per cent of the total area. The ‘division’ is situated to the south of the State, and is mostly surrounded by currently Maoist-affected or erstwhile Maoist-affected Districts of the State. To the south, the ‘KKBN division’ shares its borders with Gajapati, Koraput, Nabarangpur and Rayagada; to the north, with Angul, Bolangir and Subarnapur; to the east with Cuttack, Ganjam and Khordha; and to the west, with Nuapada, as well as Raipur in Chhattisgarh State.
The ‘KKBN division’ was once a stronghold of the Maoists. Unsurprisingly, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Boudh, and Nayagarh, along with another 11 Districts (Angul, Bargarh, Bolangir, Deogarh, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur, and Sundargarh) out of the State's 30 Districts, were among the 90 Districts in 11 States listed as LWE-affected by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on February 5, 2019. Of these 11 Districts, Koraput and Malkangiri, were among the ‘30 worst Maoist-affected’ Districts, across seven States in the country, according to the UMHA.
However, with the security situation improving rapidly, the Odisha State Government recommended to the UMHA to remove the names of five LWE-hit Districts from the Centre's consolidated list of CPI-Maoist-affected Districts, for which the State receives funds under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme. On July 10, 2020, DGP Abhay, disclosed,
The Maoist power is undeniably fizzling out in the ‘KKBN division’ and across Odisha. It is now up to the Governments – the Centre and State – to expand the necessary administrative, developmental and security outreach in the Districts of the ‘division’, as well as other LWE-affected region of the State, to bring about a more comprehensive normalcy and lasting peace.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia July 20-26, 2020
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Government will enter talks with Taliban from strong position, assures President Ashraf Ghani: President Ashraf Ghani on July 26, during his visit to Nimroz Province, said the Afghan Government will not enter negotiations with the Taliban from a position of weakness, and that the republic and the national security and defense forces will not be compromised in the talks. "I will not compromise on the republic. I will not compromise on Afghanistan. We are proud of the republic," Ghani said. Tolo News, July 27, 2020.
250 Afghan SF personnel killed in three weeks by Taliban in 11 provinces, according to report: An assessment by Tolo News published on July 23, claim that 250 Afghan Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and over 300 more were injured in 220 attacks staged by the Taliban over the past three weeks in eleven Provinces. The assessment indicates that the majority of casualties among the Government Forces occurred in the north and southeast regions of the country. Tolo News, July 23, 2020.
Rights activists urge Government to repeal DSA terming it oppressive: Rights activists at a webinar on July 21, urged the Government to repeal the Digital Security Act (DSA) terming it oppressive. Transparency International Bangladesh and Committee of Concerned Citizens in Cumilla jointly organised the webinar, said a press release. The act was harming anti-corruption campaigns and could easily be used against those who are critical of the Government as has been the case since it was enacted, said speakers. New Age, July 22, 2020.
180- 200 IS terrorists present in Kerala and Karnataka, according to UN report: A UN report stated that 180-200 Islamic State (IS) terrorists are hiding in Kerala and Karnataka. The information was accessed from the report filed by Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning ISIS, al Qaeda and associated individuals and entities. DNA, July 26, 2020.
SFJ eyes Jammu and Kashmir for 'Referendum 2020' campaign, says report: The banned US-based pro-Khalistan outfit, Sikhs For Justice (SFJ) has been trying to establish a base in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) for its secessionist agenda. Intelligence inputs have suggested that the outfit recently gave a call for Sikhs residing in the valley to support its online 'Referendum 2020' campaign, which seeks secession of Punjab from India. As per the report, after it's failed attempts at getting support for 'Referendum 2020' voter registration in Punjab and Delhi, the SFJ's next target is J&K, where it plans to launch voter registration for the illegal campaign on July 26. IANS, July 24, 2020.
Ramees K T is mastermind of Kerala Gold Smuggling case, says NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) probing the Kerala Gold Smuggling case makes a mention of Ramees K T, who is the kingpin in the case. The NIA quotes one of the accused, Sandeep Nair as saying that Ramees insisted on smuggling gold in large quantity and maximum number during the lockdown period as the financial position of the country is weak. Nair also stated that Ramees commands and always moved with a group of persons and have contacts abroad, the NIA said. One India, July 23, 2020.
Possibility of split of NCP is not over yet, says NCP Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal: Chairman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal addressing a function in Kathmandu on July 24 said that the possibility of the split of NCP is not over yet. He alleged that a group of people registered the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) at the Election Commission (EC) at the behest of the party's another Chairman and Prime Minister KP Oli. "Our party is in a crisis as the CPN-UML party was registered at the Election Commission at the initiative of the party's other chairman even as our meeting was underway," Dahal said. My Republica, July 25, 2020.
6,500 terrorists of Pakistani origin still active in Afghanistan, says UN report: The United Nations report on July 24 claimed that 6,000 to 6,500 terrorists of Pakistani origin are still operating in Afghanistan and use their bases to attack targets inside Pakistan. A new report prepared for the UN Security Council and released to the media on July 24 afternoon covers global terrorist activities in 2019-20. It notes that while the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to be the primary group with a focus on Pakistan, its members are also active in various terrorist outfits Dawn, July 20, 2020.
Pakistanis heading terror outfits ISIL-K, AQIS, TTP are yet to be blacklisted, says UN report: According to a United Nation (UN) report, Pakistani nationals remain at the leadership levels in terror groups such as al Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant - Khorasan (ISIL-K) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and many of them are yet to be blacklisted. The Times of India, July 26, 2020.
BRAS and SRA to form a united front: Baloch Khan, the spokesperson for the umbrella organization of the Baloch pro-independence outfits Baloch Raj Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) said in a media statement that representatives of the BRAS and the commanders of Sindh pro-independence organization Sindh Revolutionary Army (SRA) held a session at an unknown location where the participants assessed the latest geopolitical situation and announced the formation of a united front and joint strategy to liberate the oppressed Balochistan and Sindh from Pakistan. The participants in the session unanimously agreed that the Sindhi and Baloch nation have had political, historical and cultural ties that have persisted for thousands of years. Sangar, July 26, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend