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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 19, No.23, November 30, 2020
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • INDIA: Bihar: 'Axis' of Violence - Indrajit Sharma
  • NEPAL: Sustained Crackdown - S. Binodkumar Singh


INDIA

 

    Print

Bihar: 'Axis' of Violence
Indrajit Sharma
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

 

On November 22, 2020, three persons, including a ‘zonal commander’ of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), identified as Santosh Yadav aka Alok (30), and two civilians – Birendra and Jairam – were killed at Mahuari village under Barachatti Police Station limits in Gaya District. The Maoists opened fire at a team of Security Forces (SFs) comprising Central Reserve Police Force (CPRF), Police personnel of Jharkhand and Bihar, who were out on a joint anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] operation in the village. In the ensued gun-battle, Santosh Yadav, carrying a reward of INR one million on his head was killed by the SFs while the Maoists shot dead the two civilians and injured three others when they opened fire at a civilian crowd. Also, four troopers of the CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action) Battalion of the CRPF were injured in the incident. SFs recovered an INSAS and an AK 47 rifle from the encounter spot.

On September 1, 2020, Maoist killed a local priest, identified as Neeraj Jha of Shringirishi Dham under Kajra Police Station limits in Lakhisarai District. The Maoists had abducted Neeraj on August 23 and demanded INR 10 million ransom from his family. The Maoists later killed him and dumped his body in a forested area in the District.

On August 28, 2020, Maoists shot dead two civilians, identified as Mahindra Yadav and Ram Dayal Rajak, after branding them as ‘Police informers’, at Harni Khajura village under Magra Police Station limits in Gaya District. One villager was also injured in the attack.

According to data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least seven civilians have been killed in LWE-linked violence in the ‘Axis’ region of Bihar covering Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, Jamui, Lakhisarai and Munger Districts, in the current year (data till November 29, 2020). The region thus accounted for 70 per cent of total civilian fatalities recorded in Bihar in 2020, thus far (total 10 civilians killed in Bihar). The percentage of civilian fatalities in the ‘Axis’ region to civilian fatalities in Bihar stood at 92.30 in 2019 (12 out of 13). Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data, this region accounted for 53.16 per cent of total civilian fatalities recorded in the State (260 out of 489 fatalities).

Fatalities in 'Axis' Region and Bihar: 2000*-2020

Year

'Axis' Region
 BIHAR
 
 
% Share
 
 
 
 
 
CV
 
SF
 
MT
NS
 
Total
CV
SF
MT
 
NS
Total
 

2000

30
2
2
0
34
46
23
27
0
96
35.41

2001

1
6
1
5
13
10
18
14
30
72
18.05

2002

6
1
3
1
11
35
6
61
19
121
9.09

2003

17
15
0
5
37
45
28
10
7
90
41.11

2004

4
4
0
4
12
25
4
5
10
44
27.27

2005

18
12
14
0
44
26
25
54
0
105
41.90

2006

12
3
9
0
24
16
5
10
0
31
77.41

2007

16
7
2
0
25
34
20
5
0
59
42.37

2008

12
19
15
3
49
30
23
15
5
73
67.12

2009

8
19
3
0
30
35
25
15
4
79
37.97

2010

27
17
19
8
71
46
22
19
9
96
73.95

2011

21
3
3
0
27
39
8
20
0
67
40.29

2012

10
9
8
0
27
15
10
20
0
45
60

2013

18
25
2
0
45
21
25
2
0
48
93.75

2014

7
7
4
0
18
7
7
4
4
22
81.81

2015

4
2
3
0
9
4
3
3
0
10
90

2016

8
15
13
0
36
8
15
13
0
36
100

2017

14
0
8
0
22
15
0
9
0
24
91.66

2018

8
3
2
0
13
9
3
2
0
14
92.85

2019

12
1
6
0
19
13
1
7
0
21
90.47

2020

7
0
1
0
8
10
0
5
0
15
53.33

2020

5
19
35
23
23
23
35
23
61
119
49.57

Total

260
170
118
26
574
489
271
320
88
1168
49.14
Source: SATP, *Data since March 6, 2000; **Data till November 29, 2020.

While no SF fatality has been reported in the State in the current year (data till November 29, 2020), the region recorded one fatality in this category in 2019. Despite this, the overall SF:Maoist kill ratio in the ‘Axis’ region, since March 6, 2000, remains in favour of the Maoists at 1.44:1. However, during the same period, when the whole of Bihar is taken into consideration, the ratio favours the SFs at 1:1.18.

The six Districts comprising the ‘Axis’ region accounted for 53.33 per cent of overall fatalities in Bihar in 2020 (8 out of 15). Significantly, the region accounted for 100 per cent of total fatalities in the State in 2016, 91.66 per cent in 2017, 92.85 per cent in 2018, and 90.47 per cent in 2019. Since March 6, 2000, the region recorded 49.14 per cent of the overall fatalities in the State. The region has been the epicentre of Maoist violence in Bihar.

Not surprisingly, all of these six Districts (Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, Jamui, Lakhisarai and Munger) are among the 90 Districts in 11 States that are LWE-affected, according to a February 5, 2019, Government release. Further, four of these six Districts (Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui and Lakhisarai) are among the ‘30 worst Maoist-affected’ Districts, across seven States in the country, according to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA).

Significantly, four of these six Districts (Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada and Jamui) are among the most underdeveloped areas of the State and are listed among the ‘Aspirational Districts’ included in the 'Aspirational Districts Programme'. The programme focuses on five main themes – Health & Nutrition, Education, Agriculture & Water Resources, Financial Inclusion & Skill Development, and Basic Infrastructure – which have direct bearing on the quality of life and the economic productivity of citizens.

Along with existing backwardness, five of these six Districts (barring Lakhisarai) share borders with Maoist-affected Jharkhand, thus adding to their vulnerability.

Of late, however, the Maoist strength in the region has dwindled as compared to the past, as in all other areas of erstwhile Maoist activity. According to Rajiv Mishra, Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP), Gaya District, the Maoist base has weakened in the region on account of increased Police mobility and the execution of development projects. On August 30, 2020, Mishra noted,

Behaving more like a criminal gang devoid of ideological moorings, the Maoists have lost ground. Increased police mobility, social outreach programmes of the police forces, expansion of the communication network, increased awareness level and ever shrinking base has unnerved the Maoists. Their supply chains too have got disrupted and funding too has dried up. The Maoists do not have the fund required to maintain the Red squad, the group trained in guerrilla warfare and as such desertions are taking place.

Reiterating a similar view on September 12, 2020, Mishra stated,

Maoist's supply chain stands broken and it now finds it difficult to provide even the bare necessities to its squad members.

Earlier, on July 29, 2020, S.M. Khopade, Additional Director General of Police (ADGP), Operations, has similarly claimed that the supply chain of the Maoists, including that for ration and other basic provisions, had effectively been broken following continuous vigil and surveillance.

The enhanced security presence during the lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the State further facilitated SFs in cornering the Maoists' grip. The coronavirus lockdown disrupted Maoist supply chains and weakened their operational capacities across the State.

On October 4, 2020, an unnamed senior Police official asserted that, though Maoist activities had been on the wane in recent years in the 16 Maoist affected Districts of the State [Arwal, Aurangabad, Banka, East Champaran, Gaya, Jamui, Jehanabad, Kaimur, Lakhisarai, Munger, Muzaffarpur, Nalanda, Nawada, Rohtas, Vaishali, West Champaran], land mines remained a challenge, more prominently in the ‘Axis’  region. Indeed, as reported on October 4, 2020, the Superintendents of Police (SPs) of several Districts, including the ‘Axis’ region, had asked Police Headquarters for satellite phones, additional central paramilitary forces and deep search metal detectors to look for landmines during anti-Maoist operations.

On October 3, 2020, Manu Maharaaj, the Munger range Deputy Inspector General of Police warned that the Maoists could execute a major incident in Jamui, Munger and Lakhisarai Districts as a result of frustration caused by sustained and prolonged anti-Maoist operations by SFs.

Worryingly, on November 18, 2020, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) issued orders for the permanent withdrawal of two regular CRPF battalions from Bihar, to be redeployed in Chhattisgarh. Previously, on May 5, 2019, when the UMHA had proposed the withdrawal of two battalions of CRPF deployed in LWE affected areas in Bihar, the State Government had observed,

The area covering the Districts - Gaya, Jehanabad, Aurangabad, Bhojpur and Arwal - on both sides of the border is highly inaccessible, hilly and covered with forests. As a result, CPI-Maoist remains a formidable threat along the Gaya-Aurangabad axis in southern Bihar and along the Jamui-Munger-Banka-Lakhisarai axis. Operations for area domination, cordon and search against extremists always require more boots on the ground. There is requirement of matching forces on this side of the border to counter influx of Naxalites from the areas of Jharkhand and to effectively combat them. This is possible only by filling the gaps in the existing deployment of security forces.

The ‘Axis’ region in Bihar showcases a zone where the Maoists retain a significant measure of resilience and capacities to operate and inflict violence. Sustained SF operations, in combination with administrative outreach in the region, are necessary to ensure that that the gains of recent years are consolidated further, and the menace of this enduring insurgency is finally countered.

 

NEPAL

 

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Sustained Crackdown
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 25, 2020, two cadres of the outlawed Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) were arrested on charges of carrying out the explosion at the Tapli Municipality office of Udayapur District in Province No. 1 on November 22. No one was injured in the incident.

On November 23, 2020, Police arrested four cadres of the CPN-Maoist-Chand from the Deurali area of Pokhara city in Kaski District, Province No. 4. The arrested persons are Kumar Pariyar, Yam Prasad Bhattarai, Kali Bahadur Pandey and Bishal Shrestha.

On November 22, 2020, a CPN-Maoist-Chand cadre, Dipendra Singh Airee (22), was arrested while he was distributing flyers along the Brahma Dev Highway in Kanchanpur District, Province No. 7.

On November 20, 2020, two CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres were arrested from Jwagal in Lalitpur Metropolitan City, Lalitpur District, Province No. 3, on charges of extorting money from businessmen and industrialists. Prem Darnal (41) and Sanjib Nepali (39),  who were arrested, are members of the party’s ‘central department of finance’.

On November 11, 2020, Police arrested four CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres from Kathmandu city, Province No. 3, on extortion charges. Those arrested were identified as Bintos Silwal (33), Ramdal Shrestha (31), Tirtha Man Tamang (51) and Nandu Raj Acharya (42).

On November 5, 2020, the Armed Police Force (APF) arrested two CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres, Khem Pradhan and Tikaram Chaudhary, in Kathmandu city and recovered leaflets, banners, three mobile phones, and extortion documents from them.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since March 12, 2019, when the CPN-Maoist-Chand was banned, at least 242 leaders and cadres of the outfit have been arrested across the country (data till November 29, 2020). Prominent CPN-Maoist-Chand leaders arrested include ‘central commander’ Hemanta Prakash Oli (arrested on March 23, 2019); ‘central leader’ Nar Bahadur Karki (June 24, 2019); ‘central committee member’ Gunaraj Lohani (October 22, 2019); ‘central committee member’ Chudamani Oli (November 8, 2019); ‘provincial leader’ Sitadevi Mahara, (December 14, 2019); ‘treasurer’ Arjun Katwal (February 4, 2020); ‘provincial leader’ Indal Prasad Sah (February 12, 2020); ‘politburo member’ Anil Sharma aka Birahi, (May 5, 2020) and ‘central member’ Om Prakash Pun (July 15, 2020).

Moreover, one District in-charge and seven cadres of the CPN-Maoist-Chand have been killed in various operations across the country during this period. The last of these eight killings was reported on July 10, 2019, when CPN-Maoist-Chand cadre Nir Kumar Rai was killed in an exchange of fire between the Police and CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres in Bhojpur District, Province No. 1.

However, despite the Nepal Government’s continuous clampdown on the CPN-Maoist-Chand, the group continued to engage in violence.

On January 15, 2020, a bomb exploded at the residence of Shobha Kanta Dhakal in Baluwatar area of Katmandu District in Province No. 3. The glass windows of the house and a parked vehicle inside the compound were damaged in the blast, though nobody was hurt. CPN-Maoist-Chand took responsibility for the blast.

On January 26, 2020, an explosive device was detonated at the project site of the under-construction 900-megawatt Arun III Hydropower Project in the Sankhuwasabha District of Province No. 1. Police suspect the explosion was carried out by CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres, as the hydropower project has repeatedly faced such attacks, with the blame often going to the group.

On March 11, 2020, CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres exploded an improvised explosive device (IED) at an under-construction house belonging to former Minister for Communications and Information Technology Gokul Prasad Baskota, in Madhyapur Thimi, Bhaktapur District, Province No 3. No injuries were reported as no workers were present at the site. However, the window glasses of two houses in the neighbourhood were damaged in the explosion.

On November 22, 2020, a bomb went off at the help desk area of the Tapli Municipality office in Udayapur District, Province No. 1. The explosion damaged equipment in the offices, including computers, printers, cabinets and sofas. No group or individual claimed responsibility for the action. However, Police suspect that the explosion was carried out by CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres.

According to the SATP database since March 12, 2019, the day CPN-Maoist-Chand was banned, the group has been involved in at least seven incidents of violence resulting in the death of two civilians, two Security Force (SF) personnel and eight of its own cadres (data till November 29, 2020). 

CPN-Maoist-Chand was formed on December 1, 2014, after splitting from the Communist Party of Nepal (Revolutionary Maoist) headed by Mohan Baidya. Soon after, it initiated violence across the country. According to the SATP database, between January 19, 2015, the day of the first reported incident of violence by the outfit, and March 12, 2019, the day it was banned, the group was involved in at least 32 incidents of violence, resulting in the death of one civilian and injuries to 19 others, including 17 civilians and two Policemen, across the country.

The Government had attempted to hold talks with its leadership before banning the outfit. On August 25, 2018, for instance, the Government formed a five-member High-Level Political Talks Team led by Nepal Communist Party (NCP) lawmaker Som Prasad Pandey. However, the team couldn't even initiate the process, as Chand paid no heed to repeated approaches for talks by the team. Even after banning the group, the Government has been making efforts to bring the outfit to the negotiation table. On October 24, 2019, Minister of Communications and Information Technology Gokul Prasad Baskota, in a press meet at the Ministry, stated that dialogue with CPN-Maoist-Chand was possible if the group accepted the Constitution. He urged the party to give up violence and accept the Constitution, which had ensured almost all rights, including political, social and other rights.

Separately, on January 11, 2020, the Co-Chairman of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Pushpa Kamal Dahal, urging CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres to join the ruling NCP without any delay declared, "I urge members of Chand-led party not to delay to join our party. The Communist parties should join hands together to successfully achieve socialism in the country."

Meanwhile, in a statement issued by the group, on October 21, 2020, CPN-Maoist-Chand announced a week-long protest against the Government from October 31 to November 5, citing the poor response to the COVID-19 crisis. The group also accused the Government of its involvement in corruption. In the statement, the group accused the Government of being irresponsible towards the people and the nation, stating that its actions had threatened nationality, democracy and public life, making these more vulnerable.

As the CPN-Maoist-Chand group has been refusing to come to the negation table, Minister for Home Affairs Ram Bahadur Thapa, on October 16, 2020, in an indirect reference to the outfit, without naming it, observed,

Some underground forces are launching extortion drives, bringing hurdles to economic development and working against the people's rights to live with freedom by posing a challenge to the country's constitution.

CPN-Maoist-Chand has suffered a blow to its morale in recent days, as the Government continues its crackdown against the group. It has lost many of its cadres while a large number of party leaders and cadres are already in jail. However, with the CPN-Maoist-Chand refusing to negotiate and continuing its violent and disruptive activities, there is a risk to the new Constitution and the newly established federal republic system in the country. With rising political instability in the country, there is always a lurking danger of escalation of violence by opportunistic formations such as the Chand group.

NEWS BRIEFS
 

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
November 23-29, 2020

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

5
9
178
17
209

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

0
2
1
0
3

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Chhattisgarh

0
1
4
0
5

Odisha

0
0
1
0
1

INDIA (Total)

0
3
6
0
9

PAKISTAN

 

KP

0
0
2
0
2

Punjab

0
0
1
0
1

Sindh

1
0
0
0
1

PAKISTAN (Total)

1
0
3
0
4
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

Doha negotiators agreed on rules on November 15, says Taliban spokesman in Doha, Mohammad Naeem: The Taliban's spokesman in Doha, Mohammad Naeem, says that negotiators from both sides on November 15 agreed on procedural rules with 21 items for the intra-Afghan talks and it was read out in Pashto and Dari & a copy was delivered to the host nation. "The procedure of Intra-Afghan negotiations between the negotiating teams was completed and finalized in 21 articles on the 15th of November 2020," tweeted Mohammad Naeem, a spokesman for the Taliban. Tolo News, November 29, 2020.

Taliban significantly increased attacks in past week, says Afghan MoD: The Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) on November 27 said that the Taliban continued to stage attacks on a daily basis in at least 22 provinces of the country over the past week. Over the past week, the Taliban attacked various areas in the Provinces of Nangarhar, Laghman, Nuristan, Ghazni, Logar, Maidan Wardak, Paktika, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Herat, Farah, Badghis, Faryab, Balkh, Jawzjan, Sar-e-Pul, Helmand, Kunduz, Baghlan, Takhar, and Badakhshan, according to MoD. Tolo News, November 27, 2020.

Afghanistan is one of the deadliest countries to be a civilian, says ICRC: The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) highlighted the high civilian fatalities and termed the country as one of the deadliest for civilian. ICRC said, "Afghanistan is one of the deadliest places in the world to be a civilian and that 50% of the country lives somewhere highly affected by armed conflict." Tolo News, November 27, 2020.

Afghanistan stays first in Global Terrorism Index 2020 ranking, says report: Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2020 Marks Afghanistan to be the most impacted nation by terrorism, the country was subjected to 26 world's terrorist attacks out of 50 worst terrorizing incidents. According to the report, while deaths caused by terrorism declined in 2019, the Taliban still remains the deadliest terrorist group in the region. According to GTI 2020, peace talks in Afghanistan have a substantial impact on terrorist activity, but still, terrorism is active in the region. The Khaama Press, November 26, 2020.

International donors pledge of $13 billion in support for Afghanistan: The International donors up to now have pledged a total of $13 billion in support to Afghanistan. International Donors' Pledge To Afghanistan includes European union (EU) $ 1.4 billion, $ U.K 828 Million, Japan $ 720 million, Canada $ 260 million, The Netherlands $ 220 million, Australia $ 144 million, Turkey $ 75 million, Norway $ 70 million, Denmark $ 75 million, France $ 104 million, Czech $ 6.6 million, Ireland $ 10 million, Indonesia $ 5 million, Luxembourg $ 2.9 million, Italy $ 35 million, South Korea $ 35 million, ADB Asian Development Bank $ 900 million, USA $ 600 million, and Germany $ 512 million. The Khaama Press, November 25, 2020.

BANGLADESH

All sculptures in country will be torn down, threatens HeI Chief Junaid Babunagari: Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) Chief Junaid Babunagari addressing a mahfil in Hathazari, Chattogram District on November 27 threatened to pull down and destroy all the sculptures no matter which party puts those up. The Daily Star, November 28, 2020.

Bangladesh ranks 33rd out of 163 countries in Global Terrorism Index 2020: According to the Global Terrorism Index 2020, released by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on November 25 Bangladesh has ranked 33rd out of 163 countries. Bangladesh was 30th in 2019 while it was 25th the year before, according to the Global Terrorism Index 2020. For the second year in a row, South Asia was the hardest hit by terrorism. However, Bangladesh is the most successful South Asian country in countering terrorism. Dhaka Tribune, November 26, 2020.

INDIA

SFJ announces 'global referendum' from UK in August 2021:The banned secessionist organization - Sikhs For Justice (SFJ) on November 25 announced to organise a "global referendum" from the United Kingdom (UK) on August 15, 2021. SFJ's General Counsel Gurpatwant Singh Pannun circulated the anti-India message on some specific internet platforms regarding the move. The message was followed by a short video shot by Pannun who claimed to leave SFJ's mark in the national capital on November 25 by raising pro-Khalistan slogans. IANS, November 26, 2020.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan seventh most-impacted country, says 2020 Global Terrorism Index report: According to Global Terrorism Index 2020 report, released by the Australia-based Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), Pakistan is the seventh most-impacted country in the world. "The 2020 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) has found that deaths from terrorism fell for the fifth consecutive year since peaking in 2014. The number of deaths has now decreased by 59% since 2014 to 13,826," said the report, entitled 'Vision for Humanity'. The ExpressTribune, November 26, 2020.

SRI LANKA

Easter Sunday Attack was conspiracy led by foreign group, says former President Maithripala Sirisena: Former President Maithripala Sirisena concluding his testimony to the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI) into the Easter Sunday Attack on November 25 said the April 21, 2019, suicide bomb attack on the churches and hotels was a conspiracy led by a foreign group in Sri Lanka. Former President Maithripala Sirisena said he suspected a powerful foreign hand was behind Saharan Hashim, the mastermind of the Easter Sunday attack and the suicide bomber. Colombo Page, November 28, 2020.

For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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