South Asia Terrorism Portal
India: A Lingering Red Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On April 3, 2021, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres killed at least 22 Security Force (SF) personnel in Sukma District of Chhattisgarh. Giving details, the State’s Deputy Inspector General (anti-Maoist operations), O.P. Pal, disclosed,
According to reports, the 2,000-strong contingent of troops was drawn from Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA, a specialised unit of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), CRPF’s regular battalions, a unit of its Bastariya Battalion, Chhattisgarh Police’s District Reserve Guard (DRG), and others. The Maoists were around 400 in number. However, the Maoist’s had positioned themselves strategically before laying the ambush. Explaining the ground situation, an unnamed officer said,
In the gunfight that lasted over three hours, 22 SF personnel were killed while another 30 were injured. Though CRPF Director General (DG) Kuldiep Singh claimed that not “less than 25-30” Maoists were killed, the SFs have recovered just a single dead body of an alleged woman Maoist from the encounter site.
Significantly, the April 3, 2021, incident is the worst attack targeting SFs, in terms of fatalities, across India, since the April 24, 2017, attack in which about 200-300 Maoist cadres had killed at least 25 CRPF personnel and injured another six in an ambush at Kalapattar in the Burkapal area of the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh. In turn, the April 24, 2017, attack was the worst since the June 29, 2010, Jhadha Ghati (in Narayanpur District of Chhattisgarh) attack, in which 26 SF personnel were killed.
Between the April 25, 2017, and April 3, 2021, attacks, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 18 major attacks (each resulting in three or more fatalities) against the SFs have been recorded from across India. In three of these 18 incidents, 15 or more SF fatalities were recorded. Apart from the April 1, 2021 attacks, the others in this category include the followings:
May 1, 2019: At least 15 SF personnel of C-60, the Maharashtra Police counter-insurgency commando unit, and one civilian driver, were killed in an ambush by CPI-Maoist cadres in Jamburkheda village under Kurkheda Police Station limits in the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra.
March 21, 2020: Maoists ambushed an SF group, killing 17 personnel and injuring another 15 in the dense forests of Elmaguda, close to Kasalpad and Minpa villages in the Chintagufa area of the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh.
These attacks continue as no adequate measures were being taken to overcome the inherent weaknesses highlighted on several occasions. Indeed, K.P.S. Gill noted, on April 29, 2017, in the aftermath of the April 24, 2017, attack,
In another article, published days later, on May 1, 2017, Gill observed,
Regrettably, however, four years down the line, little appears to have changed and the CAPFs are still working as the lead Force in the fight against the Maoists, with the State Police in Maoist-affected areas unwilling to take the lead, and often operating well under sanctioned strength, relatively poorly trained and ill equipped. For instance, according to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, in the major Maoist-affected states the Police population ratio (policemen per 100,000 population) remains abysmally low. In Bihar, the Police population ratio is 76.20, followed by 113.68 in Andhra Pradesh and 129.31 in Odisha, However, the two worst affected States, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, have relatively better ratios at 172.18 and 220.53, respectively, well above the national ratio of 155.78. More worryingly, as against the national average 63.63 Policemen per 100 square kilometers, the Chhattisgarh ratio stands at just 47.22 per 100 square kilometers.
State Police Forces not only remain understrength but ill quipped as well. A Comptroller and Auditor General Report released on September 21, 2020, highlighting the existing deficiencies in the Jharkhand Police, noted,
Despite all these shortcomings, most of which are due to the lackadaisical approach of the people at the helm, both at the Centre and in the States, the SFs have succeeded in countering the Maoist menace and have established dominance to a large extent. The Maoists, who according to official statistics, were active across 223 out of 640 Districts spread across 20 states in India in 2008, are now active in not more than 90 districts across 11 States. Maoist violence was reported from 96 Districts in 2010, has been limited to 46 Districts in 2020 (data till September 2020). According to the SATP database, while 64 districts recorded fatalities 2010, the number came down to 36 in 2020. Moreover, overall fatalities which peaked in 2010 at 1,179 (630 civilians, 267 SF personnel, 264 Maoists, 18 Not Specified), dropped to 239 (61 civilians, 44 SF personnel, 134 Maoists) in 2020. 2020 recorded the lowest number of overall as well as civilian fatalities since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling such data.
Other parameters of violence also indicate significant improvement. The number of Maoist-linked incidents have come down drastically. While there were 2,258 incidents in 2009, the number came down to 665 in 2020. This number has remained within three digits since 2017. Between 1999 and 2016 the number had remained over 1,000 each year. The number of killing incidents, at 480 in 2010, came down 138 in 2020. Similarly, there were 34 explosions in 2020, resulting in 46 deaths, as against a high of 187 explosions resulting in 182 deaths in 2009. The highest number of explosion-linked deaths were reported in 2010, when 388 people were killed in explosions.
The significant improvement on the ground has been the result of the operational successes of the SFs. The SFs have eliminated over 1,378 Maoist leadership elements in intelligence-based operations since 2010. Though most of the prominent leaders have either been killed arrested or surrendered, some CPI-Maoist 'Central Committee (CC)' members remain active in the forested areas of Sukma and Bijapur. They are protected by an entity called the 'Central Regional Command (CRC)'. CRC's 'Battalion 1' is led by Maoist leader Madvi Hidma who, according to unconfirmed reports, has been promoted to the 'CC'. Dantewada Superintendent of Police (SP), Abhishek Pallava claimed,
Reports indicate that Hidma led the April 3, 2021, ambush, when the SFs went into the area of attack to ‘smoke him out,’ following intelligence inputs that Hidma was in the area. Though CRPF Director General Kuldiep Singh asserted that there was no intelligence failure, the way the SFs were ambushed does suggest that gross errors in operational protocols, and potentially in the quality of intelligence, have occurred.
Though the Maoist remain at a strategic disadvantage in their fight against SFs and there is no imminent threat of their re-establishing their dominance in the areas they have lost, occasional and major ‘successes’ of the kind witnessed on April 3 are bound to boost the sagging morale of their cadres and are likely to help the outfit to continue its fight to regain ground. The SFs will have to overcome the existing deficiencies in their operational mechanism. The battle is far from over and will linger on, as the political dispensation continues to lack the will and the capabilities to find a lasting solution.
Meghalaya: Ethnic Cauldron Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 21, 2021, three local youth from Wahkaji in the South West Khasi Hills area were assaulted in the Golf Links area of Shillong city in East Khasi Hills District. On March 28, one of the victims succumbed to his injuries.
Since the assault, several pressure groups in the State are demanding actions against the culprits who, according to them, were non-locals.
On March 30, 2021, the Hynniewtrep Youth Council (HYC), general secretary, Roy Synrem, alleged that since the victims of the March 21 incident were locals and belonged to the Khasi community, the Police was not ‘serious’ in finding out the culprits. He asserted,
On March 31, 2021, the Khasi Students’ Union (KSU) took out a protest in Mawkyrwat, the District headquarters of South West Khasi Hills District, to condemn the attack on the three local youth and to seek justice. KSU banners during the March 31 protest read, “If you can arrest a Khasi, why not arrest a non-Khasi? Or are you merely dogs with tails between their legs in front of non-tribals?”
Meanwhile, on March 26, 2021, East Khasi Hills Superintendent of Police Sylvester Nongtnger claimed, “They [the attackers] belong to a tribal community of Meghalaya as per their language and accent.” However, no arrest has taken place thus far. Indeed, KSU president Lambokstar Marngar declared, “What surprises me is the fact that it has been more than a week since the Golf Links incident occurred and the police are yet to make an arrest.”
On February 24, 2021, a labourer from Assam, identified as Raju Mondal, was killed and seven others injured when a group of about 15-20 masked assailants attacked them while they were sleeping in their place of stay on the St. Xavier’s College campus in Shait-Shait Umoid village in South West Khasi Hills District. Among the arrested suspects, two were members of the KSU while the third was a former member.
Lately, the ethnic pot (illegal immigrants, locals and outsiders) in the State has been simmering. Tensions gained momentum during the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act/ Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAA/CAB) agitation in end-2019 and during 2020. The demand for the Inner Line Permit (ILP) system is adding fuel to the fire. On March 8, 2021, Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma informed the State Assembly that the State Government had urged the Union Government to examine and consider the application of the ILP system to the State. The ILP system regulates all visits by Indian citizens from other states.
Despite the rising ethnic tensions, the situation relating to insurgency continues to improve rapidly. For the first time since 1992, no insurgency-linked fatality was recorded in the State through 2020. There was just one fatality (civilian) in 2019.
Fatalities have been on a steady decline since 2015, when fatalities came down to 61 from 77 in 2014. There were 30 fatalities in 2016, eight in 2017 and seven in 2016. Significantly, 77 fatalities in 2014 were the highest fatalities recorded in a year after 2000, when there were 246 fatalities.
At the peak of the insurgency in 1997, there were 495 fatalities – 233 civilians, 111 Security Force (SF) personnel and 151 terrorists.
The reason for the rapid improvement in the security situation since 2015, after a surge between 2010 and 2014, is the decimation of the Garo Hills-based militants. SFs had launched the four-phase Operation Hill Storm in September 2014, primarily targeting the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), the then most lethal active group in the State, resulting in the decimation of the outfit. Since September 11, 2014, at least 37 GNLA militants have been killed, 154 arrested and 176 surrendered (data till April 4, 2021). The entire leadership of the outfit has been wiped out.
Some insurgency-linked worries, nevertheless, persist.
In Meghalaya, the areas that falls along the Indo-Bangladesh border remains vulnerable. On October 20, 2020, an encounter took place between the Police and United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) militants at Bolchugre village under Rongara Police Station in the South Garo Hills District, bordering Bangladesh.
Further, the Hynñiewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), the militant group operating in the Khasi-Jaintia Hills and purportedly fighting for ‘Khasi interests,’ remains active. HNLC carried out three explosions in the State in 2020.
December 12, 2020: One civilian was injured in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion that took place at the residential Krishna Colony, inside the premises of Star Cement, at Lumshnong, in East Jaintia Hills District. Two rooms were also partially damaged in the explosion. HNLC claimed responsibility for the blast. In its statement, HNLC ‘general secretary’, Saiñkupar Nongtraw, stated that the blast took place due to non-payment of ‘tax’ by the owner of the cement factory.
November 26, 2021: A low intensity IED blast occurred at Soo Kilo in Sutnga Elaka, East Jaintia Hills District. Though no casualty was reported, one shop was completely destroyed in the blast. HNLC claimed responsibility for the attack.
February 20, 2020: HNLC detonated an IED that caused partial damage to a coke factory located at Kyllon Mathei Pyndeng Jalong near the Riangdo area of the West Khasi Hills District. HNLC claimed responsibility for the blast, stating that the factory was a “benami unit” (a unit owned under false identity). HNLC added that the blast was a warning to the Government.
Further, the introduction of CAA has the potential to strengthen ethnic identity movements throughout the Northeast, and Meghalaya is no exception. As Meghalaya is outside the present ambit of ILP and is yet to receive any assurance from the Government of India that it would be brought under ILP, the situation is likely to fuel further ethnic polarisation. The insurgent groups are likely to exploit these conditions to regroup and regain strength.
Meghalaya has experienced a substantial consolidation of peace over the past few years. The substantial peace from militancy in the State has to be followed up with addressing the issues of ethnic insecurity. The prolonged ILP movement along with ethnic polarisation if not handled appropriately can give oxygen to low lying militancy to recreate trouble in the Hill State.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 29 – April 4, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
305 Afghans killed in targeted attacks and explosions in past month, according to news report: Data collected by Tolo News shows that at least 305 Afghans were killed and 350 others were wounded in a series of explosions and targeted attacks in the past one month. There has been a 20 percent increase in the number of explosions and targeted attacks in the country in March 2021 compared to February 2021. Tolo News, April 2, 2021.
17 people died during HeI mayhem between March 26 and 28, says Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan: Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan on April 4 told the Parliament that a total of 17 people died during the Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) mayhem between March 26 and 28 and the people involved in the chaos in different parts of the country have all been identified. Delivering a statement under Section-300 of the Rules of Procedure of Parliament, the Home Minister said that the people involved in the violence will be brought to justice while 22 people have been arrested already. He said that after the Jummah prayer at Baitul Mukarram on March 26, HeI activists started the violence and threw brickbats at the Police. New Age, April 5, 2021.
7,300 people sued in connection with attacks, vandalism, and arson during HeI protests: As many as 7,300 people have been sued in connection with the attacks, vandalism, and arson during protests of Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) in the past three days in Dhaka, Brahmanbaria, and Sylhet Districts. In Brahmanbaria District, as many as 6,500 people have been accused of the violent protests carried out under the banner of HeI over the past three days. Dhaka Tribune, March 29, 2021.
Militant outfits are operating online business from behind bars to collect funds, say investigators: AsInvestigators on March 31 said that militant outfits are operating an online business from behind bars to collect funds. Investigators claimed to have gleaned the information from two cadres of banned militant outfit Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) arrested from Tejturi Bazar area of Dhaka city on March 30. The Daily Star, April 1, 2021.
22 SF personnel killed in Maoist attack in Chhattisgarh: At least 22 Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and 30 others injured in an encounter with Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) in a forest along the border between Bijapur and Sukma Districts in Chhattisgarh on April 3. The officials said that at least 25-30 Maoists were killed in the three-hour-long encounter. CNBCTV18, Jagran English, April 4, 2021.
India being a major power in the region should be a part of Afghan peace process at various forums, states Afghan Ambassador Farid Mamundzay: Afghanistan’s Ambassador to India, Farid Mamundzay on March 30, said that India, being a major power in the region, should be a part of the Afghan peace process at various forums as the country is suffering from international terrorism. "India is an important partner to Afghanistan... We want India to be a part of all those forums and talks where peace is discussed. The peace of Afghanistan impacts India as well... India has adopted a principled position in the Afghan peace process. We would want India's presence in those forums," the Afghan envoy said. Big News Network, March 31, 2021.
Supreme Court refuses to review its verdict to revive CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Center: The Supreme Court on April 1 refused to review its March 7 verdict to revive the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist–Leninist (CPN-UML) and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center). A full court comprising Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher JBR, Justices Tej Bahadur KC and Prakash Kumar Dhungana ordered that its verdict on March 7 will not be reviewed as demanded by the Chairman of CPN-Maoist Center, Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Nagarik Network, April 2, 2021.
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli must seek vote of confidence by April 5, says CPN-Maoist Center Chief Whip Dev Prasad Gurung: Chief Whip of Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center) Dev Prasad Gurung on March 31 said in the House of Representatives (HoR) that Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli must seek a vote of confidence by April 5. He said the Prime Minister was required to seek a vote of confidence within one month of the Supreme Court's verdict that annulled unification between the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist–Leninist (CPN-UML) and CPN-Maoist Centre. The Himalayan Times, April 1, 2021.
Tamil diaspora groups banned: The Government has banned a number of Tamil diaspora groups, including some influential organizations based in the UK, reports Daily Mirror on March 29. Some of the groups were banned in 2014 but were de-listed by the Government in 2015. The Global Tamil Forum (GTF), British Tamil Forum (BTF), Canadian Tamil Congress (CTC), Australian Tamil Congress (ATC), National Council of Canadian Tamil, Tamil Youth Organisation and the World Tamil Coordinating Committee have been proscribed by the Ministry of Defence. Daily Mirror, March 30, 2021.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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