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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 19, No.31, January 25, 2021
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • PAKISTAN: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Resurgence on the Cards - Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
  • INDIA: Arunachal Pradesh: Peripheral Problems - Giriraj Bhattacharjee


PAKISTAN

 

    Print

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Resurgence on the Cards
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

 

On January 24, 2021, five Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, including two ‘commanders’, were killed in intelligence-based operations in Mir Ali and Khesur areas of North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The slain ‘commanders’ were identified as Syed Raheem and Saifullah Raheem.

On January 20, 2021, Police foiled a terrorist attack in the Utmankhel area of Bajaur District in KP, killing two TTP cadres. According to the Police, they received intelligence that an attack was planned in Utmankhel.

On January 19, 2021, two Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and one injured when two unidentified militants riding a motorcycle opened fire at an SF Road Protection team in the jurisdiction of the Gomal Police Station in Tank District, KP.

On January 17, 2021, three people, including a former Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Nazim (Organizer), Qamar Khan, were shot dead when Khan’s vehicle came under attack by unidentified assailants near a private hospital on Mardan Road in Swabi District of KP. A passer-by was also among the dead.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP has accounted for at least 26 terrorism-related fatalities (including four civilians, nine SF personnel and 13 terrorists) in 2021, thus far (data till January 24, 2021). During the corresponding period of 2020, the Province recorded only three terrorism-linked fatalities (a fatality each in the civilian, SF and militant categories).

KP recorded a total of 216 fatalities (61 civilians, 57 SF personnel, and 98 terrorists) in 2020 as against 130 such fatalities (30 civilians, 69 SF personnel, and 31 terrorists) in 2019, registering an increase of 66.15 per cent in overall fatalities.

More worryingly, civilian fatalities almost doubled from 30 in 2019 to 61 in 2020, demonstrating a clearly worsening security situation.

The number of major attacks increased from 18 in 2019 to 28 in 2020. The resultant fatalities in such attacks almost doubled from 73 in 2019 to 145 in 2020. Though KP accounted for a smaller number of explosions (25) in 2020 in comparison to 32 in 2019, the resulting fatalities increased from 41 to 45.

The most violent District in 2020 was North Waziristan, which accounted for 110 deaths in 2020, followed by Peshawar (27 fatalities), South Waziristan (21 fatalities).

In 2019 as well, North Waziristan had chalked up the maximum of 50 killings, followed by Dera Ismail Khan (30) and Peshawar (nine).

North Waziristan, which is the epicentre of violence in the Province, shares borders with Bannu, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Kurram Districts of KP in the North and Northeast; Sherani and Musakhel Districts of Balochistan to the South; and Khost, Paktia, and Paktika Provinces of Afghanistan to the West and Northwest. Its strategically central and vulnerable location gives North Waziristan tremendous importance for the militants and terrorists of various hues.

Pakistan had deliberately long delayed operations in North Waziristan, as the region provided shelter to its own Afghan terrorist proxy, the Haqqani Network. The Haqqani Network has been persistently accused by the United States of attacking allied and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan had, however, resisted American pressure to go in for an all-out operation in the Province in order to ensure that the Haqqani Network safe haven was not disrupted. After the Jinnah International Airport attack on June 8, 2014, Pakistan lunched Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) on June 15, 2014, against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan terrorists, after extracting the Haqqani cadres from the region.

Inevitably, not just the Haqqanis, but most of terrorist groups and their cadres shifted to the other side of the Afghan border before the start of the Operation, allegedly tipped off by the Pakistan security establishment. A July 7, 2014, report noted that up to 80 per cent of terrorists fled after ‘rumours’ of an Army assault emerged in early May 2014, most of them across the porous borders into Afghanistan. Later, a March 8, 2017, report confirmed that many terrorists managed to escape, slipping across the border to eastern Afghanistan.

Reports now indicate that the terrorists who had escaped to other areas were 'coming back home'. Journalist Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, covering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for The New York Times, asserted, on August 3, 2020,

Fear has engulfed South and North Waziristan tribal districts with a rampant influx of terrorists in the area in recent months. Packs of Taliban fighters have been sneaking into Pakistan's north-western region from hideouts just across the Afghan border. Pakistani officials and local residents worry that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan following a peace deal signed by the US and Taliban in February will further embolden the Pakistani Taliban's return to the region.

Not surprisingly, Aman Lashkar (Peace Committee) members and tribal elders, who had supported the Government in the fight against the terrorists, are under increasing threat. Attacks on tribal elders recorded a spike in 2020. According to partial data compiled by SATP, there were six incidents targeting tribal elders, resulting in the death of 10 elders in 2020, while 2019 saw six fatalities in five such incidents. Similarly, during 2018, six tribal elders were killed in four incidents of targeted attack in the tribal areas. Through 2017 and 2016, there were two such deaths in two incidents. The tribal areas recorded 11 such incidents, resulting in 14 killings in 2015. SATP’s partial data, based on erratic reporting in the Pakistani media, confirms the killing of at least 180 tribal elders since 2005, in 122 incidents.

Meanwhile, people in the region are worried about the unification of terrorist groups. Radio Mashaal in a September 16, 2020, report, quoted a local resident, Syed Ayub Khan, as stating, “We are worried that these people [terrorists] are reuniting once again. We fear that the peace we have achieved since the military offensive is being lost.”

Indeed, the re-unification of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which had created havoc in the region between 2007 and early 2014, has begun. On August 17, 2020, TTP confirmed that the breakaway Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA) had re-joined the group. JuA ‘chief’ Omar Khalid Khurasani and HuA ‘chief’ Omar Khurasani have pledged allegiance to the TTP ‘chief’ Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP statement disclosed. JuA parted ways with TTP in 2014, after developing differences with the then leader of the group, Mullah Fazlullah. It had even condemned the TTP’s December 16, 2014, Army Public School attack, which had resulted in the death of 148 persons, including 135 children. HuA was formed later, after JuA split into two groups. The regrouping of all faction of TTP under the leadership Noor Wali Mehsud is a matter of serious concern.

Further, JuA and HuA are not the only groups that have re-joined the TTP lately. After the death of TTP-Hakimullah Mehsud (TTP-HK) ‘chief’ Shehryar Mehsud on February 12, 2020, TTP-HK under its ‘commander’ Mukhlis Yaar Mehsud, re-joined the parent outfit in July 2020.

The ‘home coming’ of terrorists and re-unification of the grouping is likely to create further turbulence in the Province, in particular, and the country at large. It will also throw a challenge to the security establishment in neighbouring countries and the international community, as the region has served as a terrorist shelter for a variety of terrorist formations for a very long time. 

 

INDIA

 

    Print

Arunachal Pradesh: Peripheral Problems
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 20, 2021, militants released a video of two abducted employees, Pranab Kumar Gogoi and Ram Kumar, of Quippo Oil and Gas Infrastructure Limited, an oil drilling company, appeared, in which the duo appealed to the Chief Ministers of Assam and Bihar to secure their release. On December 21, 2020, the duo was abducted by the terrorists of the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang (NSCN-K), from the company’s drilling location in Diyun in the Changlang District of Arunachal Pradesh. The militants have demanded INR 200 million for their release.

Earlier, a January 4, 2021, report noted that the militants had threatened that they would target oil installations in the State, including Oil India’s installations.

Meanwhile, Arunachal Pradesh recorded 10 insurgency-related fatalities in 2020, as against 17 in 2019, registering a decline of 42 per cent. Six of the 10 fatalities resulted from one incident. On July 11, 2020, Security Forces, in a joint operation, killed six cadres of the Isak Muivah faction of NSCN (NSCN-IM) near Nginu in Longding District.

Security Force (SF) fatalities fell from three in 2019 to two in 2020, while terrorist fatalities increased from three to seven, thus yielding a SF: Terrorist kill ratio of 1:1 in 2019, in favour of SFs, and going up to 1:3.5 in 2020.

More importantly, civilian fatalities fell from 11 in 2019 to just one in 2020, clearly indicating a significant improvement in the security situation in the State.

Further, the residual insurgency is restricted to just three Districts: Tirap, Longding and Changlang (TLC).  In 2020, all 10 fatalities were reported from these three Districts – Longding (eight), Tirap (one) and Changlang (one). In 2019 too, 16 out of 17 fatalities were reported from same three Districts – Tirap (12), Changlang (three) and Longding (one). The location of one fatality remained unspecified.

Indeed, on October 1, 2020, the Union Government extended the disturbed area status in these three Districts for another six months. The notification read,

…Tirap, Changlang and Longding districts in Arunachal Pradesh and the areas falling within the jurisdiction of the following four police stations in other districts of Arunachal Pradesh, bordering the State of Assam, are declared as 'disturbed area' under Section 3 of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958, up to 31.03.2021 w.e.f. 01.10.2020, unless withdrawn earlier.

The four Police Stations included are Namsai and Mahadevpur in Namsai District; Roing in Lower Dibang Valley District; and Sunpura in Lohit District.

The insurgency in the state is mostly due to the ‘overflow’ from neighbouring States, as there are no currently active local insurgent groups in the State.

However, there are ethnic insecurities among ‘locals’ primarily due to a fear of loss of political dominance and socio-economic benefits. Three clear instances of such insecurities are – the local opposition to the demand for Permanent Resident Certificate (PRC) by six communities (Ahom, Deoris, Sonowal, Kacharis, Morans, Adivasis and Mishing) living in Lohit, Namsai and Changlang Districts of the State; the persistent objection of the local groups on giving citizenship to the Chakma and Hajong refuges settled in Arunachal Pradesh; and opposition by a section of the Yobin community on the renewal of lease agreement for ex-servicemen families (mostly Gorkha) settled in the Vijaynagar area of Changlang District and their participation in Panchayat elections.

On December 11, 2020, the All-Arunachal Pradesh Students' Union (AAPSU) observed the day the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was approved in Parliament a year earlier, as 'black day'. AAPSU president Hawa Bagang said,

CAA had been arbitrarily brought to accommodate the foreigners. Though Arunachal Pradesh has been exempted from the purview of CAA but we have to fight for our future generations.

Back in 2019, the enactment of CAA had led to protests in some pockets, despite the fact that the State was beyond the purview of the act.

Separately, on December 11, 2020, youths, led by the All Yobin Students Union (AYSU), created a disturbance in the Vijaynagar area of Changlang District. They set ablaze the Extra Assistant Commissioner’s office, Post Office, Special Bureau (SB) office, Subsidiary Intelligence Bureau (SIB) office and ransacked the Vijaynagar Police Station. The members of the Yobin community, led by AYSU, were angry at the Panchayati Raj provisions being extended to 'ex-Assam Rifles personnel' and other ‘outsiders’. Their demands included the removal of 'outsiders' from Vijaynagar as quickly as possible.

On July 29, 2020, the demand for two six schedule Autonomous Councils, in Mon and Patkai, was revived. The Mon Autonomous Region Demand Committee calling for tripartite talks to be initiated with the State and Union Government at the earliest, noted:

"the state legislative assembly has already adopted and resolved for creation of Mon Autonomous Council along with Patkai Autonomous Council way back in 2004 and forwarded the same to the Center. The demand, however, is still pending after a series of follow up action over the years."

However, AAPSU is opposed to the creation of these councils. The student body issued a statement on July 30, 2020, underlining its concerns,

The demand and subsequent creation of MAR [Mon Autonomous Region/ Mon Autonomous Council] comprising the Tawang and West Kameng districts and the Patkai Autonomous Council comprising Tirap, Longding and Changlang districts is bound to open floodgates for similar demands from various regions within the state…

AAPSU’s assessment is based on a presumption that there will be overall development in the new council areas and preservation of culture and other rights of people living in these areas will be ensured. This would make people in other areas “feel deprived” and they “would also want to be part of such a new exercise”, which will open a Pandora Box, as the State is home to 26 major Tribes and 100 sub-tribes.

Sustained counter insurgency operations against Assam and Nagaland based militants in TLC areas are needed to end the menace. There is also a need to engage politically with the ethnic and student bodies leading various protests, so that their apprehensions are properly addressed and the potential for future trouble is contained.

NEWS BRIEFS
 

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
January 18-24, 2021

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

5
28
113
0
148

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
3
0
3

Manipur

1
0
0
0
1

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
1
0
1

INDIA (Total)

1
0
4
0
5

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
4
0
0
5

KP

0
2
9
0
11

PAKISTAN (Total)

1
6
9
0
16
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

Taliban should sever ties with Pakistan, says President Ashraf Ghani: President Ashraf Ghani while addressing a press conference on January 21 stated that the Taliban should cut ties with Pakistan and that they should not have a safe haven in there. "One of the basic needs for peace in Afghanistan is that the Taliban should cut their ties with Pakistan. If they call themselves Afghans and want to be in Afghanistan; they should not have dual citizenships," Ashraf Ghani said. The Khaama Press, January 23, 2021.

No significant progress in Doha talks in past nine days, says report: No significant progress has been made over the past nine days between the peace negotiators from the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban about the agenda of the talks. A member of the republic peace negotiating team has accused the Taliban of not being prepared for the talks. The Islamic republic team has said that the reasons for the Taliban's lack of interest in the talks are unclear. Tolo News, January 21, 2021.


BANGLADESH

Al Qaeda has no presence in Bangladesh, says Information Minister Hasan Mahmud: Information Minister Hasan Mahmud on January 18 said al Qaeda has no presence in Bangladesh as claimed in a "thoughtless remark" by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. "Our Foreign Ministry has strongly protested against the remark. It's unfortunate when such thoughtless statements come from the secretary of state of a country like the USA," he told reporters during a briefing at the Secretariat. The Independent, January 21, 2021.

 
INDIA

SFJ calls upon agitating farmers of Punjab to "plunge Delhi into darkness on R-Day": The US-based banned terrorist outfit, Sikhs For Justice (SFJ) on January 18, gave a call to agitating farmers of Punjab to "plunge Delhi into darkness on R-Day" by targeting the offices of 'discoms' (distribution companies) and cutting the city's power supplies. In a video message, SFJ's legal adviser Gurpatwant Singh Pannun called upon the farmers of Punjab to cut off the electricity supply to Delhi on January 25 and 26 while claiming that the electricity distribution companies like BSES Rajdhani and BSES Yumna are owned by the same "Ambanis" who will be the beneficiary under the new farm Acts. Times of India, January 21, 2021.

NEPAL

Fresh mandate is must for peace, stability and development in country, says President Bidya Devi Bhandari: President Bidya Devi Bhandari on January 18 said that a fresh mandate is must for peace, stability and development in the country. Receiving the annual report of the Election Commission (EC) at a programme organized at the Office of President in Sheetal Niwas, President Bhandari said that it is necessary to conduct the elections to the House of Representatives (HoR) on the slated dates as a fresh mandate is essential for peace, stability and development. My Republica, January 19, 2020.

SRI LANKA

268 suspects had been arrested in connection with Easter Sunday terror attacks, says Police Spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana: Police Spokesman DIG Ajith Rohana said that 268 suspects had been arrested in connection with the Easter Sunday terror attacks and 195 suspects have been remanded on court orders. In addition, 73 suspects have been detained as per the provisions of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) at the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) and the Terrorist Investigation Department (TID). Daily News, January 22, 2021.

 
 
For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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