South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

AFGHANISTAN

 

   

Health Hazard
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On June 15, 2021: Five health workers were killed and another four wounded in five separate shooting incidents during a polio vaccination drive in Nangarhar Province. Ataullah Khogyani, spokesperson for the provincial Governor disclosed that the incidents occurred when unknown gunmen fired on the polio vaccination teams in the provincial capital, Jalalabad city, and suburban districts of Khogiani and Surkh Rod.

On April 12, 2021: Unidentified gunman killed a doctor, Mohammad Saleh, Chief Physician at 209 Shaheen Corps, and his driver at Ferdawsi Square in District five of Mazar-e-Sharif city in Balkh Province.

On March 30, 2021: Three polio vaccinators were killed by Islamic State (IS) terrorists in two separate incidents in Jalalabad city, Nangarhar Province.

On May 5, 2021: A bomb targeted a minibus carrying medical workers in the Kalakan District of Kabul Province, killing one medic.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since April 1, 2021, at least 10 medical staff and vaccinators have been killed in Afghanistan (data till June 20, 2021). Of these, eight killings have been reported from the eastern province of Nangarhar.

According to United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Annual Report, Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict compilation, Afghanistan has recorded 615 incidents of attacks on health facilities and personnel since 2011 (data till March 31, 2021). 2021, has already seen 21 such incidents (from January 1 to March 31).

 

Year	Incidents of attacks on health facilities and personnel
2011	10
2012	21
2013	32
2014	47
2015	63
2016	119
2017	75
2018	62
2019	75
2020	90
2021 (Till March 31)	21
Total	615

Health professionals: doctors, polio vaccinators, nurses, medical staff and various medical facilities are under increasing attack in Afghanistan, with a majority of killings taking place in the eastern province of Nangarhar.

Indeed, an April 21, 2021, report quoted Merjan Rasekh, Communications Officer, Afghanistan Ministry of Public Health, stating,

The situation in the south and eastern provinces [of Afghanistan] has been problematic for many years because of the bans imposed by the Taliban as well as the Islamic State, which briefly controlled parts of the country…

The Taliban has been opposing the polio vaccination drive since 2018, accusing health teams of acting as spies. In May 2018, the militants banned not only door-to-door vaccination, but even vaccination at clinics in their 'territory', largely in eastern Afghanistan. Later, as reported on May 9, 2019, furnishing reasons for the ban, Taliban 'spokesman' Zabihullah Mujahid told the Afghan Analysis Network via WhatsApp,

Several people were arrested, who had entered Taleban-controlled areas, calling themselves vaccinators, but actually collecting intelligence data. Such had been appointed to identify the houses [and] residential areas of Taleban commanders and leaders. The vaccinators would leave chips [GPS tracking devices] in houses, so that the government would identify that house and locate it for targeting. This clearly shows that the enemy was seriously misusing the polio vaccination drive.

The situation deteriorated further, when a call for nationwide ban on all vaccinations was made in April 2019 for a period of five months. In 2020, hopes were raised that the Taliban would allow teams to vaccinate at central points in Taliban territory, but the final go-ahead has not yet been given (as of June, 2021). An un-named senior Taliban figure said,

At the moment no decision has been made. The polio door to door campaign has been absolutely banned by top leadership.

The violence against medical professionals, especially polio vaccinators, causes immense worry, as Afghanistan struggles to stamp out a disease that has largely been eliminated around the world. Unfortunately, Afghanistan is, alongside Pakistan, one of the last countries in the world where polio is endemic. The third – Nigeria – was declared polio-free in 2020. Afghan authorities say nearly 10 million children are now in need of vaccination against polio. Of those, authorities are unable to reach approximately three million children living in areas under control of Taliban militants, especially in Helmand, Uruzgan and Kandahar provinces.

Nevertheless, as reported on March 18, 2020, frightened by the prospect of a coronavirus epidemic in parts of Afghanistan under their control, the Taliban ‘pledged’ their readiness to work with healthcare workers instead of killing them. Also, reports in April 2021 indicate that many top members of the Taliban, including Taliban’s ‘chief’ Haibatullah Akhundzada and Taliban’s ‘deputy chief’ Sirajuddin Haqqani, contracted the COVID-19 virus.

Back in September 2020, the Taliban lifted a ban on the World Health Organisation and Red Cross from operating in militant-held territory, having warned them off in April 2020 because of suspicions over the polio vaccination campaigns. Interestingly, Waheed Omer, an aide to President Ashraf Ghani, disclosed that he was still seeing reports of Taliban harassing health workers in some areas. “It should be stopped immediately”, he Tweeted on March 19, 2021.

Also, describing Taliban atrocities on healthcare workers, UNAMA's Special Report: Attacks on Healthcare During the Covid 19 Pandemic, published in June, 2020, noted:

Over the course of the period under review, the Taliban abducted 23 healthcare workers in seven separate incidents across six provinces and regions of Afghanistan. The healthcare workers were held on average for 12 days, with the longest abduction lasting for 26 days.

In spite of the ongoing pandemic, on May 12, 2020, unidentified terrorists attacked a maternity ward run by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) (Doctors Without Borders), killing 23 civilians in the Dasht-e Barchi area of Kabul city. Security Forces killed four terrorists on the site, who, an eyewitness said, were wearing Afghan military uniforms.

The conflict in Afghanistan has had a catastrophic impact on the healthcare system. According to the Human Rights Watch report, titled, "I Would Like Four Kids - If We Stay Alive," dated May 6, 2021,

The World Health Organization has estimated that up to 3 million Afghans were deprived of essential health services in 2020 alone due to closure of health facilities by parties to the conflict, including the Taliban, groups affiliated with the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP, an affiliate of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS), and Afghan government forces.

In the meantime, the Taliban is making rapid gains in the battlefield since the beginning of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO's) official troop withdrawal from Afghanistan on May 1, 2021. The Taliban has taken over at least 30 districts from Afghan Forces, and the number is rapidly increasing. The Taliban is now present in almost every province of Afghanistan and is encircling several major cities, a repeat of their strategy of the mid-1990s.

The security situation in Afghanistan is slated to deteriorate further. The health sector, like any other sector, will suffer the consequences of increased chaos.

INDIA

 

 

   

Maoists: Explosive Intent
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On June 15, 2021, Security Forces (SFs) recovered explosives, including Improvised Explosive Device (IED) making materials, and a huge cache of arms, following an exchange of fire with Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres at a forest near Kulabeda village in Malkangiri District in Odisha. No casualty was reported. 

On May 18, 2021, a Police head constable, identified as Kalendra Prasad Nayak, was killed and another constable received splinter injuries in an IED blast triggered by CPI-Maoist cadres in an area under the Kutru Police Station in Bijapur District, Chhattisgarh.

On April 25, 2021, CPI-Maoist cadres blew up a railway track with landmines near Lotapahar under the Chakradharpur Railway Division in West Singhbhum District, Jharkhand. Train operations in the Division on the Howrah-Mumbai main rail route was affected for a few hours, but was later restored. 

On April 23, 2021, SFs launched search operations in a forest area under the Madanpur-Rampur Police limits in Kalahandi District, Odisha. After spotting the Maoists they asked them to surrender. However, the Maoists resorted to indiscriminate firing and triggered an IED blast. SFs opened fire and, in the ensuing encounter, a woman Maoist was killed.

On April 23, 2021, one Indo-Tibet Border Police (ITBP) trooper, identified as Sunil Singh, was injured in an IED blast in the Narayanpur District of Chhattisgarh.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 19 incidents of explosions have been carried out by CPI-Maoist cadres, resulting in 18 fatalities (one civilian, 14 SFs personnel and three Maoists) and injuries to 22 persons (two civilians and 20 SF personnel), since the beginning of the current year (data till June 20, 2021). During the corresponding period of 2020, 11 such incidents were executed, resulting in 41 fatalities (17 SF personnel and 24 Maoists), and injuries to 20 SF personnel. A total of 34 incidents of explosion were carried out by CPI-Maoist cadres, resulting in 46 fatalities (two civilians, 18 SF personnel and 26 Maoists), and injuries to 48 persons (five civilians and 43 SF personnel) through 2020.

Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting data on Left Wing Extremist (LWE)-linked violence, a total of 1,490 incidents of explosion have been carried out by LWEs, resulting in 1,840 fatalities (510 civilians, 1,172 SF personnel, 118 Maoists and 40 deaths which remained unspecified) and injuries to 2,205 persons (694 civilians, 1,318 SF personnel, 136 Maoists and 57 injuries which remained unspecified). At peak, 187 incidents of explosion were carried out by the LWEs were recorded in 2009, resulting in 182 fatalities (36 civilians, 128 SF personnel and 18 Maoists) and injuries to 301 persons (64 civilians, 145 SF personnel, 81 Maoists and 11 unspecified). However, in terms of fatalities, 2010 was the worst year, recording 388 fatalities (200 civilians, 177 SF personnel, two Maoists and nine unspecified) and another 295 injuries (208 civilians, 71 SF personnel, one Maoist and 15 unspecified), in 149 incidents of explosion. The worst ever IED attack targeting SFs, was on April 6, 2010, when the Maoists first blew up an SF anti-landmine vehicle, and then fired indiscriminately, killing at least 75 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel and a State Police trooper in an ambush at Chintalnar’s Tarmetla village, near the thick Mukrana Forests in the Dantewada District of Chhattisgarh. 

The maximum number of incidents of IED explosions have been reported from Chhattisgarh, 395 incidents (684 fatalities and 647 injured); followed by Jharkhand, 329 incidents (363 fatalities and 502 injured); Andhra Pradesh, 237 incidents (162 fatalities and 262 injured); Bihar, 228 incidents (186 fatalities and 248 injured); Odisha, 179 incidents (123 fatalities and 163 injured); West Bengal, 64 incidents (222 fatalities and 268 injured); Maharashtra, 44 incidents (90 fatalities and 110 injured); Telangana, seven incidents (four injured); and two each from Uttar Pradesh (three fatalities and one injured), Karnataka (six fatalities), and Kerala (one fatality). One incident was reported from Madhya Pradesh.

The Maoists often use IEDs to administer a first shock before engaging SFs on patrol in gun battels during ambushes. The use of IEDs also helps them avoid direct confrontation on ground. They use IEDs hidden underground or in bushes, on national highways, important State roads and near SF camps. These are often very difficult to locate, and inflict higher casualties without suffering any loss of their own cadres.

A March 5, 2021, report, quoted an unnamed officer in the Jharkhand Police, stating,

They (Maoists) are now avoiding battles or confrontations. IEDs, especially pressure bombs, do not need direct contact. So, this helps them to implement their new strategy (use of pressure bombs).

Dantewada (Chhattisgarh) Superintendent of Police (SP), Abhishek Pallav, disclosed,

Pressure bombs are not a new addition to the arsenal of CPI (Maoist) but their usage is part of a new strategy. The pressure bombs earlier used one or two kgs of explosives, now 7-8 kg is being used. The intention is to kill and not just deter forces from going inside Maoist strongholds.

Earlier, a February 2017 report, prepared by the National Bomb Data Centre (NBDC) of the National Security Guards (NSG) assessed,

High explosives (IEDs) are the most preferred form of explosives used by the Maoists/insurgents/extremists to inflict heavy casualties on the targeted people/security forces or properties.

Meanwhile, a February 26, 2021, report, revealed that the Maoists in Chhattisgarh and Odisha “get hold of explosives through the owners of stone crusher plants in Chhattisgarh and Odisha borders." Since they do not have explosives’ dealers in their States, stone crusher owners in Chhattisgarh and Odisha purchase the same from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana as the Maoists threaten gullible stone crusher owners into purchasing huge loads of explosives. Later, the Maoists forcibly take the loads away from them without even paying a single penny.

Significantly, the current Maoist ‘chief’ Nambala Keshava Rao aka Basavaraj (65) is an expert in explosives and military techniques. Consequently, it was widely believed that the use of IEDs may increase. However, the emerging reality is that IED incidents have declined in the two years, seven months, 16-days period, since November 5, 2018, when Basavaraj became the ‘chief’. At least 109 incidents of IED explosion by the Maoists have been reported in this period, resulting in, at least 104 fatalities (17 civilians, 56 SF personnel and 31 Maoists) and 147 injured (30 civilians and 117 SF personnel). During the two years, seven months, 16-days preceding November 5, 2018, at least 155 incidents of IED explosion by the Maoists were recorded, which resulted in at least 99 fatalities (11 civilians, 79 SF personnel, and nine Maoists) and 185 injured (21 civilian, 160 SF personnel, one Maoist, and three unspecified).  It is useful to note, however, the rising efficiency of the attacks, with a significantly lower number of incidents inflicting higher fatalities in the Basavaraj period.

Thus, when analysed in the context of the overall depleting capabilities of the Maoists, the data does suggest that, under Basavaraj, the Maoists have managed to use IEDs as an increasingly potent tool against SFs and civilians.  

The Maoists are gradually and certainly failing across the country, yet their efforts to regain their erstwhile areas of influence have not ended. The increasingly effective use of IEDs was clearly anticipated. Both the Union and State Governments must, therefore, implement a strict policy to check the easy access to and acquisition of explosive materials, to check the rebels, even as SFs evolve effective protocols to minimize the impact of these devices.

Al Qaeda or IS could regenerate in Afghanistan, says US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress on June 17, that an extremist group like al Qaeda or Islamic State (IS) could regenerate in Afghanistan and pose a threat to America within two years of the US troop withdrawal. Along with Austin, General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also testified at a at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing. Bakhtar News, June 19, 2021.

Taliban wants a "genuine Islamic system" in Afghanistan, says Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar: Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on June 20 said that it wants a "genuine Islamic system" in Afghanistan and that the group is committed to peace talks and believes in resolving issues through (mutual) understanding. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the head of the Taliban's political office in Qatar, said in a statement issued that now that Foreign Forces are on the verge of completing their withdrawal process, "efforts should be made - following the obtainment of independence - to form a system that caters to the aspirations of the Afghan people for tranquility and prosperity." Ariana News , June 21, 2021.

HCNR Head Abdullah Abdullah calls on the Taliban to engage in talks: On June 18, Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) Abdullah Abdullah, in an address to Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey called on the Taliban to engage in talks. "There is a real opportunity for peace, and it is our collective obligation to make the most of it," Abdullah said. Tolo News, June 20, 2021.

Bangladesh secures 91st position in GPI 2021 by climbing seven notches from 2020: Bangladesh has climbed seven notches from 2020 and secured the 91st position among 163 countries in Global Peace Index (GPI) for 2021 released by the Institute of Economics and Peace on June 17. The GPI cumulatively measures safety and security, militarisation, and frequency of ongoing conflicts to fix ranks from most peaceful to least peaceful countries. The Daily Star, June 18, 2021.