South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

AFGHANISTAN

 

   

Islamic State: Resurgent Threat
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 14, 2021, at least 12 civilians, including Mufti Numan, the imam of the mosque, were killed and more than 15 others injured in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion at the Sharif Haji Bakhshi Mosque in the Qala-e-Muradbek area of Shakar Dara District of Kabul Province. On May 16, claiming responsibility for the attack, the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) alleged that the targeted mosque was “a worship place for disbeliever Sufis.”

On May 13, 2021, two civilians, including a child, were killed in a remote-controlled explosion in Sardawra town in Kunduz Province. Another 14 persons were injured. IS-KP claimed responsibility for the incident, asserting that the victims were from Shia Hazara community.

On May 10, 2021, two civilians were killed and nine were wounded in a bomb explosion in a bus in the Pul-e-Matak area of Jabul Saraj District, Parwan Province. IS-KP claimed responsibility for the incident, declaring that most of the occupants of the bus were Shia’s.

On May 8, 2021, terrorists carried out a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack and two near simultaneous rocket attacks in front of the Sayed Al-Shuhada School, located in the Shia Hazara dominated area, in the Afghan capital city, Kabul, killing at least 100 civilians, mostly children, and injured 160 others. Taliban denied its role in the incident and condemned it. US Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khailizad, blamed IS-KP for the incident.

Indeed, in a release on May 4, 2021, IS-KP spokesperson Sultan Aziz Azzam, had warned the Afghan Government of serious consequences, such as massacres of Shias and destruction of the economic infrastructure [including targeting of electricity networks and gas tankers], if the Government handed over Pakistani prisoners of IS-KP to Pakistan. IS-KP threatened it would turn Kabul and some other areas into a ‘Shia slaughterhouse,’ if their warning was ignored. The letter emphasized that "you know, we are people of action!" Significantly, of 407 foreign fighters presently lodged in Afghan jails, 299 are Pakistanis.

The inclination to attack civilians of religious minority community is significantly associated with the IS-KP. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) report, Protection of Civilians - Midyear Report 2020, released on August 10,2020, thus noted,

UNAMA continued to document attacks from IS-KP on religious minorities in Afghanistan, including the Sikh community and the Shi'a Muslim population, most of whom also belong to the Hazara ethnic group.

The 2020 edition of United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) noted,

IS-KP, which emerged in 2015, continued attacks against religious minority communities, in particular Shi'a Hazara who were denounced as infidels,

Meanwhile, according to the UNAMA Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict First Quarter Update: 1 January to 31 March 2021, IS-KP was responsible for 91 civilian casualties (44 killed and 47 injured) during the quarter. There were 173 civilian casualties (63 killed and 110 injured) in the corresponding  period of 2020.

IS-KP was responsible for 673 civilian casualties (213 killed and 460 injured) in 2020; 1,233 civilian casualties (309 killed and 914 injured) in 2019; 2,181 civilian casualties (681 killed and 1,500 injured) in 2018; 1,000 civilian casualties (399 killed and 601 injured) in 2017; 899 civilian casualties (209 killed and 699 injured) in 2016; and 82 civilian casualties (39 killed and 43 injured) in 2015, the first year that UNAMA attributed civilian casualties to IS-KP.

IS-KP which was responsible for 20 per cent of the total of 10,994 civilian casualties in 2018, accounted for eight per cent of the 8,820 such casualties in 2020. Only five per cent of the 1,783 casualties in the first quarter of 2021 has been attributed to the IS-KP.

As the numbers suggest, IS-KP-led violence has resulted in declining numbers of civilian casualties in Afghanistan over the past couple of years, after a continuous surge between 2015 and 2018. The significant drop in IS-KP led violence since 2019 has substantially been due to the rising turf war between the Taliban and IS-KP, on one hand, and the major assault launched by Government Forces against IS-KP, on the other. The group’s problems were compounded by the reverses faced by its parent organization, the Islamic State, in Syria and Iraq.   

In Afghanistan, towards the end of 2019, IS-KP was virtually expelled from what had been its Afghan headquarters in Nangarhar Province. Not surprisingly, on November 19, 2019, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani buoyantly declared, "No one believed one year ago that we would stand up and remain in Nangarhar, and thank God that today we have obliterated Daesh [IS-KP]." Adding to the optimism, Nangarhar Governor Shah Mahmoud Miakhel asserted, "It's not possible that they once again equip themselves in other areas of Afghanistan and threaten other parts of the country."

Most recently, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report  released on February 3, 2021, noted,

Following its setbacks in Nangarhar and Kunar Provinces, ISIL-K [Islamic State in Iraq and Levant-Khorasan, IS-KP] has suffered from degraded combat capability, reduced support on the ground and insufficient funding. The group seeks to restore influence, secure new locations, update its organizational structure and logistics, and identify additional financing sources. Without stable support, the prospects of ISIL-K reviving its former offensive activity and holding territory appear remote, considering the pressure it faces from the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF), their allies and the Taliban.

However, the recent attacks and other developments clearly demonstrate that the group is on the road to revival.

Indeed, the UNSC report released on February 3, 2021, also noted,

Despite its significant loss of territory, ISIL-K has not been entirely eradicated from the districts of Manogay, in Kunar, and Achin, in Nangarhar. Sleeper cells are active in other parts of the country, particularly in Kabul… ISIL-K will continue to undertake terrorist attacks, predominantly in Kabul, provincial capitals and urban areas in the east of Afghanistan.

A report by the US Government released on May 18, 2021, quoted the Commander of the US Central Command (USCENTCOM), General Kenneth F. McKenzie, stating,

New leadership allowed [ISIS-K] to stabilize and increase localized and lone wolf attacks throughout the second half of the year [2020].

Another unnamed official added, “The group maintains a steady operational tempo and probably retains the ability to conduct attacks in Kabul and other urban centers.” He added that IS-KP is still one “of the largest and most lethal branches of ISIS’s global network and maintains a direct relationship with ISIS leaders in Iraq and Syria.”

Meanwhile, according to a May 18, 2021, report, IS-KP has gained influence in the Kohdaman region, which encompasses seven districts of Kabul Province, all north of the city, including Mir Bacha Kot, Kalakan, Qara Bagh, Istalif, Guldara, Farza and Shakar Dara.

In June 2020, Shahab al-Muhajir aka Sanaullah, was appointed by the Islamic State to lead IS-KP. Shahab al-Muhajir also heads the Al-Sadiq office of the Islamic State, which covers the “Khorasan” region, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Central Asian States. Shahab al-Muhajir is a former ‘commander’ of the Haqqani Network that "acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency [ISI]." Further, the previous head of IS-KP, Mawlawi Abdullah aka Aslam Farooqui, who was arrested on April 4, 2020, is a Pakistani national.

Further, a look into the number of foreign IS-KP fighters arrested by authorities points to greater Pakistani involvement. As stated above, of 407 foreign fighters presently lodged in Afghan jails, 299, i.e., 73.46 per cent were Pakistanis. The rest belonged to Uzbekistan, 37; China, 16; Tajikistan, 13; Kyrgyzstan, 12; Russia, Indonesia and Jordan, 5 each; Iran and India, 4 each; Turkey, 3; Bangladesh and Maldives, 2 each, and Algeria 1.

IS-KP was on the brink of collapse, but has revived with increasing support from ISI.  With the final drawdown of foreign troops announced, the ISI-backed IS-KP is expected to become more lethal. The May 8, 2021, attack in Kabul underlines this resurgent threat.

NEPAL

 

 

   

Hurried Pact
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 1, 2021, the Netra Bikram Chand faction aka the Biplav-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) split after politburo member Krishna Prasad Dhamala aka Gambhir revolted to form a new party, the Jana Samajwadi Manch-Nepal (JSM-N). Issuing a statement, Dhamala declared that the aim of the new party was to accomplish the ‘unfulfilled revolution,’ Dhamala added, “We are the witnesses of the history where the movement took the leadership to new heights but in the end, it was the leadership that betrayed the people and the revolution.” He called for ‘fierce struggles’ against feudal, imperialist and fundamentalist tendencies.

Though he did not name Chand in the statement, it is widely speculated that the split was in opposition to Chand’s decision to enter into an agreement with the Government. CPN-Maoist-Chand, reached a three-point agreement with the incumbent Government on March 4, 2021. The agreement states:

the CPN-Maoist-Chand will seek to address all its political issues through dialogue, the CPN-Maoist-Chand will carry out all its political activities in a peaceful manner, and the Nepal Government will lift a ban it has imposed on the party's activities, free all cadres from jail and withdraw court cases against them.

Though Netra Bikram Chand, the General Secretary of CPN-Maoist-Chand, issuing a press note, sought to assert that Dhamala had left the party much earlier and his formation of a new party did not imply a split in CPN-Maoist-Chand, reports indicate that the internal rift within the party is growing.

Indeed, on April 11, much before the announcement of the split by Dhamala, Dharmendra Bastola aka Kanchan, the ‘chief of foreign relations department’, ‘western command chief’ and ‘secretariat member’ of the Chand faction declared that the country needs to hold a referendum to abolish the parliamentary system. Claiming that the current parliamentary set up was undemocratic, he called all the political forces to move beyond the parliamentary system. The statement clearly demonstrated that a section of the party remained in ‘revolutionary mode’, despite Chand’s agreement with the Government.  

Chand himself has not given up the idea of a new ‘revolution’. On March 13, 2021, Chand and the Karna Jeet Budhathoki-led Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Center) signed a three-point agreement on cooperation to create party unity. According to the agreement, the two parties will work jointly to build a ‘scientific socialist system’ against the capitalist regime, and will involve other revolutionary parties in the process.

The reason for this dichotomy is quite simple – the delay in the full implementation of the agreement by the Government. Though the Government lifted the ban on the party on March 4, 2021, and the Home Ministry directed the Police to release all cadres of the party, reports indicate that around 2,500 cadres of the outfit are still lodged in different jails. The Government has failed to comply with the terms of the agreement as local security agencies warned against rushing the decision to release of cadres due to two reasons:

Chand faction cadres have not surrendered their arms and ammunition so far, and have only announced their intention to participate in mainstream politics Chand faction cadres may tie-up with the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist rebel leader Madhav Kumar Nepal in the elections.

Interestingly, there is no mention in the agreement about the party surrendering its arms.

Meanwhile, on April 28, 2021, ruling out withdrawal of cases not in compliance with laws and the Constitution, the Attorney General of Nepal Ramesh Badal asserted that all cases filed against leaders and cadres of CPN-Maoist-Chand could not be withdrawn.

CPN-Maoist-Chand was formed on December 1, 2014, after splitting from the Communist Party of Nepal (Revolutionary Maoist) headed by Mohan Baidya. Soon after, it initiated violence across the country. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), between January 19, 2015, the day of the first reported incident of violence by the outfit, and March 12, 2019, the day it was banned, it was found to have been involved in at least 32 incidents of violence resulting in the death of one civilian and injuries to 19, including 17 civilians and two Policemen, across the country.

Between March 12, 2019, the day it was banned, and March 4, 2021, the day the ban was lifted, the group was involved in another 14 violent incidents which claimed 11 lives, including six civilians, three cadres of the group and two Security Force (SF) personnel. Another 13 persons, including 11 civilians and one SF trooper, were injured in these incidents. The last fatality was reported on December 8, 2020, in which a teacher identified as Rajendra Shrestha (54) was shot to death by cadres of CPN-Maoist-Chand at Miklajung Rural Municipality in Morang District. Shrestha was accused of working as an informant for the Police. The last violent incident was reported on March 1, 2021, when a pressure cooker bomb was exploded by CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres at Hulas Steel and Industries Private Limited in the Bindbasini Rural Municipality of Parsa District. The blast shattered windows of one of the rooms and caused some damage to the walls. However, no casualties were reported in the incident.

After the lifting of the ban, the group has not been involved in any violent incident.

The Chand group remained a major security threat to Nepal since its formation and up to the time of the agreement. The Government expected that the agreement would improve the overall security situation. The inherent weaknesses of the agreement was, however, completely ignored. The Government failed to secure an assurance from the outfit to hand over its weapons and thus rule out any prospect of future armed rebellions. The Government also made a commitment to release all the cadres without assessing the consequences under the prevailing circumstances.

The post-agreement developments are likely to increase restlessness within the Chand-led party. The threat of launching a ‘new revolution’ by the party leaders is not surprising, nor, indeed is the emerging of the breakaway faction, JSM-N, that rejects the deal with the Government. The growing instability in mainstream politics in Nepal encourages spoilers and will remain an important element in the dangers potential for a regression to armed violence.

US formally begins withdrawing from its longest war: Former president Hamid Karzai said Afghans are being used against each other by external forces and that Pakistan wants to exert strategic influence in Afghanistan through the Taliban. In an interview with Germany's weekly news magazine Der Spiegel, Karzai said: "I realized early into my tenure as president that this war is not our conflict, and we Afghans are just being used against each other - the republic against the Taliban and the Taliban against us. Bakhtar News, May 24, 2021.

Government prepares 18-member list for Supreme State Council: The Afghan Government has finalized the names of eighteen people as members of the Supreme State Council. There are 14 men and 4 women on the list. Along with the names of President Ashraf Ghani, names of the head of High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah, former President Hamid Karzai, former jihadi leader Abdul Rab Rassoul Sayyaf, Hizb-e-Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, former Vice President Mohammad Karim Khalili, former Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani and Fatima Gailani are on the 18-member list. Tolo News, May 23, 2021.

Taliban is ready for meaningful talks say negotiators of Afghan Government: Two members of the Afghan Republic's negotiating team, who are in Kabul, said on Wednesday that the Taliban is ready to start meaningful negotiations. Habiba Sarabi, a member of the Republic's negotiating team, said peace talks to finalize the agenda of intra-Afghan negotiations will resume once members of both teams are back in Doha, Qatar. Atn News, May 19, 2021.

NSA Hamdullah Mohib said that all leverage must be used against Taliban: Afghan National Security Advisor (NSA) Hamdullah Mohib on May 18 said that all forms of leverage must be used to get the Taliban to actively engage in peace talks. On May 17, Mohib discussed the Afghan peace process with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a phone conversation. Atn News, May 19, 2021.

Predictions that the Taliban will quickly overrun Afghan government forces once coalition forces have withdrawn are unduly pessimistic, says special envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad: The US special envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad on May 18 said that predictions that the Taliban will quickly overrun Afghan government forces and conquer Kabul once U.S. and coalition forces have withdrawn are unduly pessimistic. Testifying before the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, Khalilzad said: "I personally believe that the statements that their (Afghan) forces will disintegrate and the Talibs will take over in short order are mistaken." Atn News, May 19, 2021.

Taliban might ramp up violence post-ceasefire, says General Scott Miller: United States (US) and Coalition Forces commander, Gen. Scott Miller, has said that the Taliban might increase violence after the three-day ceasefire that ended on May 15. "We're watching closely what the Taliban will do post the Eid ceasefire," Miller said in an interview with the BBC. Tolo News, May 17, 2021.

ACC forms committee to probe 50 HeI leaders' wealth: The Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) on May 19 formed a committee to probe into the wealth of over 50 Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) leaders, including its chief Muhammad Junayed and joint secretary general Mamunul Haque. The commission formed the committee led by its Director General Sayed Mahbub Khan at a meeting in its headquarters in Dhaka. New Age, May 20, 2021.

TNA MPs mark Tamil Genocide Day at Parliament:A group of Member of Parliaments (MPs) from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) marked Tamil Genocide Day at the Parliament complex in Kotte, Colombo city on May 18, before a Parliamentary session was due to take place. The parliamentarians dressed in black and lit candles by a red and yellow flag, before holding a moment of silence to commemorate the tens of thousands of Tamil civilians killed at the hands of the Sri Lankan state 12 years ago. Tamil Guardian, May 21, 2021.