South Asia Terrorism Portal
Rohingya Conundrum S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On October 6, 2020, four people were killed in clashes between two groups of Rohingyas over establishing supremacy at the Lombasia Camp in the Kutupalang area of Cox’s Bazar District. 20 persons were injured in the violent clashes.
On October 4, 2020, two Rohingyas were killed in a gunfight between two rival groups at a refugee camp in the Ukhia area of Cox's Bazar District. The gunfight erupted between two groups of Rohingya criminals asserting dominance.
On October 2, 2020, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) discovered and neutralized a firearms-making factory at Madhurchhara, adjacent to the Kutupalang Rohingya Camp in Cox's Bazar District. Two persons identified as Abu Majid and Robi Alam were arrested. RAB recovered two guns, two bullets and several pieces of equipment used for manufacturing firearms from a hut set up by the arrestees. According to RAB officials, the duo had been making and supplying firearms to Rohingya criminals for a long time.
Available data shows that at least 178 cases have been filed against the Rohingyas between January and July 2020, in which 442 Rohingyas have been arrested. 263 cases were registered through 2019 and 649 Rohingyas were arrested. In 2018, the numbers stood at 208 cases and 414 arrests. The crimes these displaced people are involved in include possession of illegal arms and drugs, robbery, abduction, smuggling, murder, and human trafficking.
Media reports indicate that extremist groups are trying to take over these camps. Deutsche Welle, a German news agency, reported on February 13, 2020, that 40 Rohingyas in a Cox's Bazar camp were trained by the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) in January 2020. The JMB trained these Rohingyas with help from Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, from where USD 117,000 was received by JMB for this purpose. The report also revealed that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was among those behind the training. Siegfried O. Wolf, an analyst at the South Asia Democratic Forum, a Belgian-based group based in Brussels, later confirmed the possible involvement of ISI. He said the ISI's main goal was to destabilize some countries in the region, with Afghanistan and India at the top of their list.
Reports also indicate that the Myanmar-based Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has made deep inroads in these camps. The International Crisis Group (ICG) report “Building a Better Future for Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh” released on April 25, 2019, claimed ARSA militants and gangs mostly controlled the camps and often committed violence against the residents. Separately, the Deutsche Welle on September 24, 2019, reported that a man claiming to be an ARSA cadre told Deutsche Welle that some 3,500 fighters were sheltering in the refugee camps in Bangladesh and that groups of several hundred fighters secretly crossed to neighboring Myanmar for military training.
There are apprehensions that these terrorist groups may take advantage of the rising tension between the host community and the refugees, which has reportedly reached an alarming level. Overcrowding in refugee camps has led to encroachment of forests and decreasing opportunities for the host community.
Bangladesh is currently hosting 1.1 million Rohingya refugees, who have fled from their native Rakhine State of Myanmar, in different batches. The first batch of Rohingyas came in 1977, when an estimated 300,000 Rohingya fled persecution by the Myanmarese Army in the Rakhine region. More recently, an estimated 730,000 Rohingyas came to Bangladesh in 2017. The exodus followed massive clearance operation by the Myanmar's State Forces subsequent to ARSA’s attacks against Police posts in the northern Rakhine State. According to Ontario International Development Agency nearly 24,000 Rohingya were killed, more than 115,000 Rohingya homes were burned down while 113,000 others were vandalised by Myanmar's state forces. According to UN Report of the Independent International Fact-finding Mission on Myanmar released on September 12, 2018, the “clearance operations” constituted a human rights catastrophe. Mass killings were perpetrated in Min Gyi (Tula Toli), Maung Nu, Chut Pyin and Gudar Pyin, and in villages in the Koe Tan Kauk village tract. In some cases, hundreds of people died.
The Rohingya crisis is no longer just a humanitarian calamity but has transformed into a potential threat to Bangladesh's internal stability. On November 11, 2019, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, addressing the three-day 'Dhaka Global Dialogue-2019' in Dhaka city, observed,
On September 12, 2020, raising fears that if the Rohingya problem is not solved quickly, it may lead to radicalism and terrorism, Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Momen noted, "Our fear is that, if this problem is not solved quickly, it may lead to pockets of radicalism and since terrorists have no borders, no faith, there's a high possibility of creation of uncertainty in the region which may frustrate our hope for a peaceful, secure and stable region."
Not surprisingly, Bangladesh has, for long, been trying to repatriate these Rohingyas. According to a bilateral instrument signed by Bangladesh and Myanmar on November 23, 2017, the repatriation of the Rohingya was supposed to begin from January 22, 2018, and to be complete by January 22, 2020. But, not a single Rohingya has yet been repatriated. So far, two repatriation attempts, on November 15, 2018, and August 22, 2019, did not materialize due to Myanmar's failure to create the necessary conditions for the return of its own people.
Indeed, urging the global community to play a more 'effective role' in finding a solution for the Rohingya problem, Prime Minister Hasina, in a pre-recorded speech to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 26, 2020, stated,
Meanwhile, there are reports of rising tension at the International Border between Bangladesh and Myanmar, directly linked to Rohingya issue. Bangladeshi has deployed Army troops in Cox’s Bazar District in south eastern Bangladesh along Myanmar’s border. Similarly, Myanmar’s military has recently beefed up security along the border, citing increased activities by ARSA and the Arakan Army.
The Rohingya crisis has created challenges for Bangladesh as tension between the host communities and the Rohingyas increases. Moreover, the issue has created tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar as well. While support from numerous humanitarian actors has so far kept the refugees alive, these tensions may soon translate into explicit conflict. Unless the crisis is resolved, the ‘Rohingya problem’ may morph into an issue of global security at large, and a crisis for Bangladesh in particular.
ULFA-I: Opportunistic Reassertion Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On October 4, 2020, an Assam Rifles (AR) trooper, Havildar Birendra Singh Yadav, was killed while another troper was injured when terrorists ambushed their vehicle (a water tanker) near Hetlong village in the Changlang District of Arunachal Pradesh. Later, the Independent faction of United Liberation front of Asom (ULFA-I), in an email sent to the media, claimed that it, along with the Yung Aung faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K-Yung Aung) and Revolutionary People's Front/People's Liberation Army (RPF/PLA), had jointly carried out the attack. NSCN-K-Yung Aung also sent an email reiterating the same claim.
On July 29, 2020, three AR personnel were killed and another five injured when terrorists ambushed their vehicle at Khongtal village in the Chandel District of Manipur. ULFA-I subsequently sent an email claiming that it, along with the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) and the RPF had jointly carried out the attack.
Significantly, after the demise of Shangwang Shangyung Khaplang, the ‘chairman’ of the Khaplang faction of the NSCN (NSCN-K) on June 9, 2017, and the subsequent internal feud within the NSCN-K, the ULFA-I ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah seems to have emerged as the leader of the Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) in Myanmar. This is evident with both Naga and Manipuri groups carrying out joint strikes, especially with the ULFA-I, after June 9, 2017. Altogether 31 fatalities (one civilian, 20 SF personnel and 10 militants) have been registered in nine such joint strikes since that date.
Meanwhile, in the operations by the Myanmar Army (Tatmadaw) in January 2019 targeting IIGs, ULFA-I suffered the most. According to an affidavit filed by the Assam State Government in September 2020, before the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) tribunal, Tatmadaw operations targeting IIG camps in the Taka area of Sagiang Region had damaged the “Lungmark, Taka and Nilgiri camps of ULFA -I. Several cadres also deserted the outfit.”
Since the operations in Myanmar, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 85 ULFA-I militants have surrendered (data till October 9, 2020). 51 of them surrendered in 2020, all in Assam. In 2019, 34 ULFA-I cadres had surrendered (33 in Assam and one in Arunachal Pradesh). 35 ULFA-I militants had surrendered before the operations, since August 8, 2012, when ULFA-I was formed. Six ULFA-I militants surrendered in 2018, two each in 2017 and 2016, one in 2015, five in 2014, 18 in 2013 and one in 2012.
The group’s activities on the ground almost came to a halt after the Tatmadaw operations. The July 29, 2020, attack (above) was the first reported attack resulting in fatalities in which ULFA-I was involved.
However, during the intervening period, ULFA-I took advantage of several opportunities to regain its hold in the region. One such opportunity was the passing of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 by the Parliament in December 2019 (in the Lok Sabha on December 9 and Rajya Sabha on December 11). ULFA-I declared itself in favour of the agitation that followed the passing of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019, which spread across the Northeast region and was particularly intense in Assam. ULFA-I 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah warned on December 11, 2019,
The ULFA-I will not sit idle if a protesting student or any Assamese for that matter is assaulted. We appeal to Bhaskarjyoti Mahanta, Director General of Police (DGP) of Assam Police, not to lathicharge people taking to the streets and vehemently opposing the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill. The DGP should control his police force and not harass innocent protesters.
The enactment of CAA 2019 on December 12, 2019, when it received the President’s assent, is seen by groups representing ‘indigenous’ interest as a measure that not only legitimises present ‘illegal’ migrants, but also invites future migrations from neighbouring Bangladesh. The resultant demographic shift, they fear, will deprive indigenous populations of their political, cultural and ethnic rights. ULFA-I is trying to exploit such fears for its own ends.
Not surprisingly, ULFA’s support to the CAA agitation helped the outfit regain some support among the locals and to recruit new cadres.
Significantly, the State Government called-off the Rongali Bihu (April 14-20, 2020) celebrations citing COVID-19, but has now allowed the Durga Puja celebrations, albeit under restrictions, despite the situation on the ground being relatively worse. Obviously, one of the reasons behind the Assam Government’s recent decision was intended to keep all dominant linguistic/ethnic groups happy before the upcoming State Assembly Elections in 2021, which are likely to be fought on identity issues.
Not to miss the opportunity, ULFA-I on September 4, 2020, urged the Assam Government to cancel the Durga Puja celebration this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, stating,
ULFA-I also stated that Assamese nationalism is not religion centric. The militant group further alleged that the State government is allowing Durga Puja celebration to please Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s extremist Hindu agenda.
Obsessed with a polarizing electoral strategy, the dominant political establishment is failing to understand the degree to which providing such opportunities is helping ULFA-I gain more support and revive its strength.
Meanwhile, according to a Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) notification dated, September 18, 2020,
It added, "At present approximate cadre strength in ULFA (I) is around 250".
It is imperative for the political establishment Government to ensure that disruptive and polarizing strategies do not create opportunities for relatively marginalized insurgent formations to restore their legitimacy among the population. Unfortunately, with Assembly Elections scheduled for 2021, such hopes are unlikely to be met, putting increasing pressure on SFs to deal with the consequences.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia October 5-11, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Telengana
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Peace talks to conclude in months, says US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad: On October 7, United States Special Envoy for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad said that he expects the Afghan peace talks to be concluded in months and not years. Even as the Afghan and Taliban negotiators continue to struggle on finalizing ground rules for peace talks, Khalilzad said the process will bear result in a few months. The Khaama Press, October 8, 2020.
US troops in Afghanistan should all be 'Home by Christmas', says President Donald Trump: On October 7, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that remaining US troops serving in Afghanistan will come back 'home by Christmas'. Also, National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien said Washington would reduce its forces in Afghanistan to 2,500 by early next year. "Ultimately, the Afghans themselves are going to have to work out an accord, a peace agreement… It's going to be slow progress, it's going to be hard progress, but we think it's a necessary step - we think Americans need to come home," O'Brien said. Tolo News, October 9, 2020.
'There are no foreign mediators in the room' in Doha talks, says NSA Hamdullah Mohib: On October 6, National Security Adviser (NSA) Hamdullah Mohib said that the current negotiations which are underway in Doha are taking place between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban, stating that there are no foreign mediators in the room, nor are any wanted. NSA Hamdullah Mohib said that Kabul did not want the terms of the US-Taliban peace deal to be imposed on the Afghan people. Tolo News, October 8, 2020.
Taliban shouldn't 'fear' the cease fire, says President Ashraf Ghani: On October 6, President Ashraf Ghani, reiterated that the Taliban shouldn't fear the ceasefire and accept peace. The President further said that Taliban must adhere to peace and have the courage to reconcile with other Afghans. Tolo News, October 7, 2020.
'Taliban formed group to perform targeted killings', says MoI spokesperson Tariq Arian: A spokesman for the Ministry of Interior (MoI) Tariq Arian said that a group of 100 people under the Taliban's command is involved in the targeted killings in cities across Afghanistan. At least 17 of this group's members who were arrested by the Security Forces have confessed, said Arian, adding that "the 17 members of this terrorist network, who were recently arrested by the security forces…. have confessed that they are part of the group of 100." Tolo News, October 5, 2020.
Target killing by militants in Jammu and Kashmir on Pakistan directions, says Jammu and Kashmir DGP Dilbagh Singh: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbagh Singh, on October 7, said militants were carrying out target killings of civilians and attacking Security Forces (SFs) in J&K on the directions by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). DGP Singh said, "Now Pakistan is using militants of 'The Resistance Front' (TRF) to target civilians and issue threats to journalists and others who wanted Jammu and Kashmir to prosper." Daily Excelsior, October 8, 2020.
CPI-Maoist would not make a comeback in West Bengal, asserts CM Mamata Banerjee: West Bengal Chief Minister (CM) Mamata Banerjee on October 7 asserted that the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) would not make a comeback in West Bengal. The CM asked the Police to stay alert and ensure peace prevails in the Jangalmahal region of the State. She told to the Director General of Police (DGP), Virendra Kumar, "It is your (Police) responsibility to ensure that no one creates unrest in Bengal by using money power; the Police have to be more active." Outlook, October 8, 2020.
India and Myanmar agree to not to allow their territories to be used for activities inimical to each other: India and Myanmar have agreed to not to allow their territories to be used for activities inimical to each other. The announcement came through a press release issued by the India's Ministry of External Affairs after the conclusion of the two-day long visit of India's Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General M M Naravane and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla to Myanmar on October 4-5. Myanmar also handed over 22 cadres of different Indian Insurgent groups to India" Apn News, October 7, 2020.
ULFA-I carrying out anti-India activities from base in China, informs UMHA: In an affidavit, Union ministry of home affairs (UMHA) has officially declared that United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) led by Paresh Barua is carrying out anti-India activities from Ruili in Yunnan Province of China, where its presently based in. UMHA submitted its affidavit before the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Tribunal in Guwahati. In another separate affidavit, the Assam State Government has submitted a list of eight locations in the Sagaing Division where ULFA-I has set up its operational camps with help of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K).." Northeast Now, October 4, 2020.
Former President Maithripala Sirisena did not invite him to NSC meetings after change of Government, says former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe: Former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe testifying before the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI) into the April 21, 2019, Easter Sunday attacks, said on October 6 that former President Maithripala Sirisena did not invite him to the National Security Council (NSC) meetings after the change of Government that took place on October 26, 2018. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka at the time of the Easter Sunday attacks appeared before the Presidential Commission for the first time. Colombo Page, October 7, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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