South Asia Terrorism Portal

MALDIVES

Increasing Vulnerabilities
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 6, 2021, Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives Speaker of Parliament and former President, was grievously injured in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast outside his home in national capital Male. Three of his body guards and two bystanders – a local and a British national – also received minor injuries in the explosion.

Nasheed came out of his home at around 8:25 pm [MST] and was about to enter his car when an IED attached to a motorcycle parked near his car exploded at around 8:27pm. "Over the course of the past 16 hours he had life-saving surgery on injuries to his head, chest, abdomen and limbs," the hospital said in a statement on May 7. At the time of writing, Nasheed’s condition was stated to be stable.

On May 7, Commissioner of Police Mohamed Hameed asserted that though "the investigation is still at an early stage” the incident was, indeed “a terrorist attack.” He also disclosed that four persons present at the site of the explosion had been identified and flagged for "suspicious behaviour."

The Chief of the Defence Force Major General Abdulla Shamaal further disclosed that the explosion was triggered using a remote control. He also stated that “to make the explosion lethal, they (attackers) used powdered razors, which is a tool often used in homemade explosives."

Three arrests have been made in the case so far.

The last ‘terrorist’ attack targeting a politician in the Maldives was reported on September 28, 2015, when the then President Abdulla Yameen escaped unharmed in an IED explosion on his speedboat 'Finifenma,' while returning home from the Airport. Though the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, one of the several agencies asked by the Government to help with the investigation, found that no bomb exploded, on June 9, 2016, Ahmed Adeeb, who was Maldives’ Vice President at the time of the attack, was convicted over a plot to assassinate Yameen and sentenced to 15 years in jail. The Vice President came under suspicion because, under the Maldivian Constitution, the Vice President succeeds the President if the incumbent dies, is incapacitated, or resigns. Later on, May 20, 2019, the High Court overturned Adeeb’s jail sentence and ordered the Criminal Court to hold a retrial. Further details of the retrial are not known. Adeeb, meanwhile, is currently serving 20 years imprisonment on corruption charges.

It was on September 29, 2007, that Maldives recorded its deadliest IED explosion, in which 12 foreign tourists, including eight Chinese, two Britishers, and two Japanese, were seriously injured. Three Maldivian nationals, Mohamed Sobah (19), Moosa Inas (21), and Ahmed Naseer (20), were sentenced for the crime. The trio confessed their role in the incident and stated that their intent was to "target, attack and injure non-Muslims to fulfill jihad." The Police believe that 10 men who masterminded the attack, left for Pakistan in the days prior to the incident.

Maldives witnessed its last terrorism-linked fatality on April 23, 2017, when a local affiliate of Al-Qaeda killed blogger Yameen Rasheed. Since then, however, the country has registered five terrorist attacks, including the May 6, 2021, incident. The role of Islamist terrorists is suspected in all these cases.

Moreover, the Security Forces (SFs) have thwarted at least three attacks by Islamist forces between April 23, 2017, and May 9, 2021. Most recently, on November 11 and 27, SFs arrested eight terrorist suspects, who had planned to detonate an IED in the laboratory of the Thaa Atoll Education Center located in Thimarafushi, while students sat for their ‘O’ Level exams. The arrestees were working under the direction of the Islamic State.

During this period (April 23, 2017, and May 9, 2021), SFs have arrested a total of 25 terrorists/extremists. The most prominent arrest was made by the Police on October 23, 2019, when they detained Islamic State recruiter Mohamed Ameen. Ameen was also on the US Department of the Treasuries Office of Foreign Affairs Control (OFAC)’s published list of terrorists.

Islamist extremism remains a significant security risk in the Maldives. Though no group has claimed responsibility for the May 6, 2021, attack, it is widely believed that it was engineered by one of the Islamist terrorist groups active in the country.  In particular, the role of Pakistan-backed groupings is believed to be most likely.

These suspicions are strengthened by the fact that Nasheed had been critical of Islamist forces within the country, of Pakistan’s role in promoting Islamist extremism and terrorism in the Maldives, as well as of Pakistan’s ‘all weather friend’ China for its ‘debt trap’ policy towards the Maldives. 

Addressing the Indian Ocean Conference (IOC), on September 4, 2019, Nasheed, identified radical Islam as the 'biggest threat' and warned,

During an interview, published on February 19, 2019, when asked about the Maldives Government's tackling of the Chinese debt problem, Nasheed asserted,

President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, meanwhile, has disclosed that he has asked for foreign assistance to investigate the attack on Nasheed. While the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and technical experts from the UK, based in the Maldives, have joined the investigation, experts from the Australian Federal Police reached the Maldives on May 8. A speedy and impartial investigation and trial will help the Maldives thwart future attack of this nature.

INDIA

ULFA-I: Waning Force
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On April 29, 2021, the ‘Commander of the Western Command’ of the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I), Dwipen Saud aka Jishnu Asom aka Ramen Nath, was killed in an exchange of fire with the Security Forces (SFs) at Besimari in Bongaigaon District. His gunman, Padum Rai, was arrested along with weapons and a grenade.

Dwipen Saud had taken over charge of the ‘Western Command’ on November 20, 2020, replacing Dhristi Rajkhowa.

Rajkhowa, the ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ of the ULFA-I was heading the ‘Western Command’, at the time of his surrender on November 12, 2020.

Michael ‘Asom’ Dekaphukan aka Joy Chandra Das, who had replaced Rajkhowa as ‘deputy commander-in-chief’, remains ‘in office’.

Earlier, on April 25, 2021, ULFA-I released ‘assistant general secretary/finance secretary’ Jiban Moran aka Gunnat Dangori from its ranks. ULFA-I ‘chairman’ Abhijit Barman stated that the outfit was concerned about 67-year-old Moran’s “critical health condition and lack of proper treatment at his current disadvantageous location.” Moran was intercepted by the Army and intelligence agencies at Khonsa in Arunachal Pradesh on April 28, 2021. He has been in Dibrugarh Police custody since April 29, 2021.

It is useful to recall that the parent group, ULFA, was formed on April 7, 1979, with the principal aim to ‘establish sovereign socialist Assam through armed struggle.’ The group split into two on August 8, 2012: the pro-talks faction (ULFA-PTF) and the anti-talks faction (ULFA-ATF). ULFA-ATF rechristened itself ULFA-Independent following its 'central executive committee' meeting between April 2 and 5, 2013, at Taga in Myanmar.

According to a National Investigation Agency (NIA) charge sheet in case RC-04/2013/NIA/GUW, the ULFA-I leadership included ‘chairman’ Abhijit Barman aka Dr. Mukul Hazarika, presently residing in the UK, ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah, presently in China, ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Drishti Rajkhowa, ‘general secretary’ Bhaskar Borah aka Rantu Gogoi, ‘assistant general secretary/finance secretary’ Jiban Moran aka Gunnat Dangori, ‘director’ of the ‘general military headquarters’ Dwipen Saud aka Ramen Nath. The charge sheet indicates that there were 16 leadership elements, of which one has been killed, four have surrendered; while one has been ‘compulsorily retired’ by the outfit.

Moreover, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 35 ULFA-I cadres have been killed since April 5, 2013, across four States – Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland (data till May 9, 2021). There were eight fatalities [all in Assam] in 2013; 14 fatalities [Assam (13) and Nagaland (one)] in 2014, two fatalities [Assam (1) and Meghalaya (1)] in 2015, six fatalities [Arunachal Pradesh (three) and Assam (three)] in 2016; four fatalities [all in Assam in 2017, and one fatality [in Assam] in 2018. In 2019 and 2020, no ULFA-I militant was killed.

327 ULFA-I cadres have also been arrested during this period.  Similarly, 133 ULFA-I cadres have surrendered during this period.

Indeed, according to the NIA, ULFA-I had around 400 cadres in 2013. The present strength is estimated to be around 250.

ULFA-I is a severely depleted force. The outfit has failed to carry out any major attack (resulting in three or more fatalities) targeting civilians since November 1, 2018, when five civilians – Hindu Bengali daily-wage workers, including three of a single family – were killed by the outfit’s cadres in Bisonimukh village, Tinsukia District. The last ULF-linked civilian killing was reported on November 23, 2018, when ULFA-I militants triggered a blast killing two civilians and injuring another at Nitaipukhuri Road at Demow in Sivasagar District, Assam.

The last major attack on the SFs involving ULFA-I was reported on July 29, 2020, when the outfit’s cadres, along with cadres of the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) and Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF), killed three Assam Rifles personnel and injured another five in an ambush at Khongtal village in Chandel District, Manipur. This remains the last fatal attack on SFs by ULFA-I.

Nevertheless, strict vigil is warranted against this outfit to thwart any possible attack and to prevent it from continuing its disruptive activities. After the April 29, 2021, encounter, Assam Director General of Police (DGP) Bhaskar Jyoti Mahanta, disclosed,

Three Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) employees – two Junior Engineer Assistants (Production) and a Junior Technician (Production) – were abducted in the early hours of April 21, 2021. The abduction took place at an ONGC rig site in the Lakwa field of Sivasagar District. Two of the abductees were later rescued by the Security Forces from Nagaland.

Though the group identity of the abductors is yet to be ascertained, the role of ULFA-I is suspected. 

Significantly, ULFA-I released two employees of Quippo Oil and Gas Infrastructure, Pranab Kumar Gogoi and Ram Kumar, on April 3, 4, 2021, after keeping them hostage for over 100 days. The outfit had demanded INR two billion from the company for the release of its two employees. It is rumoured that the company ultimately had to pay INR 50 million. The Quippo Oil and Gas Infrastructure Limited also agreed to create 5,000 jobs for Assamese youth, to secure the release of their two employees. The two employees were abducted on December 21, 2020.

On April 8, 2021, ULFA-I served a ‘notice’ to Amalgamated Plantations Private Limited (APPL), a leading tea company, demanding immediate relocation of all its administrative offices to Assam and recruitment of indigenous people of the State. It warned that the APPL may face “ruin” if their demands were not met.

In the meantime, the outbreak of COVID-19 has created an economic crisis that may help ULFA-I gain lost ground, helping it in recruitment of cadres.

A report authored by the State Innovation and Transformation Aayog (SITA) along with the Omeo Kumar Das Institute of Social Change and Development, Guwahati, and the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR), New Delhi, on the possible impact on the economy of Assam due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has projected a rise in the unemployment rate to between 16 and 27 per cent, from the present eight per cent. The report further states,

Another Advisory Committee for Revitalisation of the State's Economy, headed by former additional chief secretary S.C, Das observed,

ULFA-I is already trying to exploit  local sentiment on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) to recruit new cadres and regain influence.

According to submissions made before the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) Court in September 2020, Paresh Baruah has also formed a new organisation, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura and Assam (ANMMMTA), to create mass unrest across the Northeast. The stated objective of ANMMMTA is to engineer mass mobilization against the lawfully established Government by exploiting various democratic movements, mobilization through electronic/ print media/ social media, recruitment for extremist activities and fund collection.

During a ten-day long Operation commencing on December 10, 2020, the Assam Police arrested seven militants in Darrang District. Amrit Bhuyan, Superintendent of Police (SP), Darrang District, stated,

SFs have maintained sustained pressure on ULFA-I and have thwarted almost all its attempts to regain ground. There is a need for continued vigilance and better inter-agency cooperation, particularly in view of the rapidly worsening security situation in coup-hit Myanmar, which is likely to provide Indian militants there breathing space for hit and run operations, especially along the borders. Polarising political rhetoric on identity is also creating new tensions and risks of violent and armed mobilization by anti-state elements.

AFGHANISTAN

180 Taliban militants killed in various parts of the country, says Ministry of Defence: Ministry of Defense said that security forces have killed 180 Taliban fighters and wounded 87 more during recent battles in various parts of the country. "Violence has significantly increased over the past three days compared to anytime in the past. In retaliation, the security and defense forces have inflicted devastating blows to the Taliban and inflicted heavy casualties on the Taliban," said Fawad Aman, a deputy spokesman to the Ministry of Defense. Tolo News, May 4, 2021.

US will support Afghan republic Government if Taliban chooses violence, says Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad: United States (US) Special Envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad, on May 7 said that the United States will continue supporting the Afghan republic government if the Taliban chooses violence and does not comply with peace. Khalilzad tweeted, "if the Taliban do not choose peace, a future based on consensus and compromise, then we will stand with Afghans who strive to keep the Republic intact". The Khaama Press, May 10, 2021.

Taliban does not intend to seize power through military struggle, said Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, a top Taliban negotiator: A top negotiator for the Taliban in Doha, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai said that Taliban does not intend to seize power through military struggle. Stanekzai made the remarks during a virtual meeting with envoys from the UN, Norway, Sweden, Germany, US and the UK. Stanekzai also clarified that forming a coalition government was not a solution to the conflict, stating that there is need for a strong centralized Islamic government in which the rights of every Afghan citizen is protected, not a few. Tolo News, Mat 9, 2021.

Internal disputes growing among Taliban leaders, says NSA Hamdullah Mohib: National Security Adviser (NSA) Hamdullah Mohib on May 8 said that internal disputes were growing among Taliban leaders for power purposes. I have a message to Taliban fighters. Your leaders using you. If you take control of any area, then you will be killed or imprisoned. So please put your guns and join normal life as other Afghans," he said. Bakhtar News, May 10, 2021.

Taliban and US in talks over full withdrawal by July, say sources: Sources familiar with the matter said Americans and the Taliban are discussing the possibility of ending the withdrawal process by the beginning of July. The Taliban will return to the talks, will attend the Turkey conference and will reduce violence if there is an agreement on the matter, the sources said. Tolo News, May 3, 2021.

BANGLADESH

Took eight years to analyse 2013 HeI mayhem as it was big incident, says DMP DB chief AKM Hafiz AKM Hafiz Akter, chief of Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) Detective Branch (DB) while responding to a reporter's query at the media centre in Minto Road of Dhaka city on May 5 said detectives took eight years just to analyse footage and collect evidence of the mayhem Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) carried in 2013 as it was a big incident. The Daily Star, May 6, 2021.

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka condemns paasage of 'Tamil Genocide Education Week' Bill in Ontario: Foreign Ministry has issued a statement condemning the passage of Bill 104 in Ontario, also known as the 'Tamil Genocide Education Week' bill, claiming it was based on a flawed premise, unfounded assumptions and blatant lies. The passage of the bill on May 6 recognizes Sri Lanka's genocide against Tamils and establishes May 11 to 18 as a week in which Ontarians "are encouraged to educate themselves about, and to maintain their awareness of, the Tamil genocide and other genocides that have occurred in world history." Tamil Guardian, May 10, 2021.

Government appoints three Rehabilitation Facilitation Officers for Northern and Eastern Provinces to strengthen rehabilitation programs: The Government has appointed three Rehabilitation Facilitation Officers for the Northern and Eastern Provinces in order to strengthen the rehabilitation programs in these provinces among the war affected. Accordingly, Sugathadasa Kongala Liyanage, Yasaranga Godawela and Geethanath Kasilingam have been appointed as Rehabilitation Facilitation Officers for the Northern and Eastern Provinces. News Wire, May 4, 2021.