South Asia Terrorism Portal
Road to Nowhere S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On June 17, 2020, at least 10 Police personnel were killed when Taliban militants aggressively attacked their checkpoints in the Shurabak District of Kandahar Province.
On June 17, 2020, seven Police personnel were killed in a Taliban attack in Pul-e-Khumri, capital of the Baghlan Province. Another five Police personnel were wounded in the attack.
On June 16, 2020, six Afghan soldiers were killed when Taliban militants attacked an Army post in the Bala Hisar area of Aqcha District in Jowzjan Province. Another three soldiers were injured in the incident.
On June 5, 2020, 15 Police personnel were killed in an ambush by the Taliban on the Zabul-Kandahar highway near the city of Qalat in Zabul Province.
On May 28, 2020, 14 members of the Afghan Border Force were killed in an attack by the Taliban in the Dand-e-Patan District of Paktia Province. Three members of the Border Force were also wounded in the attack.
On May 27, 2020, 10 Afghan forces’ personnel were killed and one was wounded after the Taliban attacked a security checkpoint in the Seyagerd District of Parwan Province.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), after the three-day [May 24, 25, and 26] ceasefire announced by the Taliban, at least 93 Security Force (SF) personnel and five civilians have been killed across the country in attacks initiated by the Taliban (data till June 21, 2020).
In an unexpected move on May 23, 2020, the Taliban announced a three-day ceasefire with the Afghan Government on the occasion of Eid-ul-Fitr. A statement issued by the group’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid on Twitter confirmed that the Taliban would not stage any attack on ‘enemy’ forces, but would maintain the right to defend itself against potential threats.
In response, President Ashraf Ghani tweeted on May 24, 2020,
Later in the day, Sediq Sediqqi, the spokesperson for the President, tweeted,
Since then the Afghanistan has released 1,700 Taliban prisoners and a total of 3,000 since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement on February 29, 2020, in Doha, Qatar. The release of prisoners is part of the agreement. Under the US-Taliban agreement, 5,000 Taliban prisoners will be released from the Afghan Government’s jails and Taliban will release 1,000 Government prisoners. Taliban has so far released 571 prisoners.
The three-day ceasefire observed by both the Afghan Government and the Taliban for Eid-ul-Fitr came to an end at midnight of May 26, 2020, with neither the Government in Kabul nor the Taliban announcing an extension. Neither side officially made a statement to end the ceasefire as well, but developments on the ground have made it quite clear that the truce was over. That the Taliban was not interested in extending the ceasefire is obvious from the fact the Government did make several overtures. Javid Faisal, spokesman for the Afghan National Security Advisor (NSA), on May 26, 2020, the last day of the ceasefire, had appealed,
Later on, May 28, 2020, he asserted,
This was the second ever ceasefire between the Government and the Taliban sides since 2001 when the latest round of war began in Afghanistan. Earlier, in June 2018, in response to President Ashraf Ghani’s unilateral announcement of ceasefire with the Taliban on June 7, 2018, the Taliban had directed all its fighters, on June 9, 2018, to cease all offensive operations against the domestic opposition forces during the first, second and third day of Eid [June 15, 16, 17]. However, that ceasefire was also short-lived as Taliban declared its end on June 17, 2018, despite the Ghani Government's announcement, on June 16, 2018, of a 10-day extension of the ceasefire, i.e. till June 29, 2018.
Despite the end of ceasefire, Abdullah Abdullah, head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, who assumed office on May 17, 2020, asserted on May 30, that he remained hopeful about the current opportunity for peace, which he said had been created due to the ceasefire. Similarly, Najia Anwari, a spokeswoman for the State Ministry on Peace Affairs on June 6, 2020, stated, “The Government is trying to coordinate on the venue for the talks so that these talks are started in the near future.” Presidential spokesman Sediq Sediqqi reiterated, on June 7, 2020, “The Afghan Government has taken important steps in this process. The negotiation team of the Afghan Government is ready to enter the talks and we have a strong national consensus for the peace process.”
However, Sirajuddin Haqqani, Deputy Chief of the Taliban, in a message to mark the completion of training of a group of Taliban suicide bombers at an unknown location, on June 3, 2020, declared that, despite the group's belief in the peace negotiations as one of the core components of the solution to the conflict in Afghanistan, the Taliban would still continue on the path of jihad (holy war) and strengthen its military power. In his message to the Taliban fightersm Haqqani asserted,
According to the Afghan National Security Council (NSC), after the US-Taliban agreement, the Taliban has carried out an average of 55 attacks a day since March 1, 2020, a spike that has doubled casualties among Afghan security forces in some parts of the country. After the Eid-ul-Fitr ceasefire, sources within the Afghan Government disclosed, on June 4, 2020, that the Taliban initiated on average 30 attacks on the Afghan security forces each day. The Taliban is also dominating wider areas than it did earlier. According to the last official data available from the of Resolute Support Mission (RSM), as on October 22, 2018, at least 50 Districts were under Taliban control or influence. RSM has stopped publishing data since. According to the Long War Journal, however, the Taliban is now in control of 75 Districts out of a total of 398 in the country. There is clear evidence that the Taliban is making all efforts to gain more control on the ground, to increase its bargaining power.
Meanwhile, a quarterly report by the US Department of Defence to US Congress, issued on May 19, 2020, noted,
Separately, the eleventh report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the United Nations(UN) released on May 27, 2020, stated that the Taliban had failed to fulfil one of the core parts of the US-Taliban agreement, namely that it would break ties with Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda has 400 to 600 operatives active in 12 Afghan Provinces, and is running training camps in the east of the country, according to the report.
There are also reports of a new breakaway Afghan Taliban faction, Hezb-e-Walayat-e-Islami (Party of Islamic Guardianship), that has close ties to neighbouring Iran and opposes efforts aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan has emerged. It is believed to have split from the mainstream Taliban soon after the US-Taliban agreement in February 2020. The formation of the splinter group underlines the possibility of multiple divisions within the Taliban. There are several Taliban leaders, fronts, and commanders who oppose peace and are linked to Iran. Among them, is Sirajuddin Haqqani, the deputy leader of the Taliban and the head of the Haqqani network. Other Iran-linked Taliban leaders who oppose peace efforts include Mullah Qayum Zakir, a powerful battlefield commander and the former military chief of the Taliban until 2014. Mullah Zakir has the backing of hard-line field commanders.
The ongoing efforts to end bloodshed in Afghanistan through the peace-processes, and the latest US-Taliban agreement have little possibility of success unless they engineer the transfer of power to the Taliban in Kabul. It is unlikely that any other solution would be acceptable to the Taliban. Lasting peace in Afghanistan remains a distant prospect.
Meghalaya: Revival Attempts Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On June 11, 2020, unidentified miscreants hurled a petrol bomb at the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation (NHIDCL) office located in the Kharmalki area of the State capital, Shillong, in the East Khasi Hills District.
On June 11, 2020, unidentified miscreants set ablaze a vehicle belonging to the District Social Welfare Officer, L. Lyngdoh, at Mawkyrwat in South West Khasi Hills District.
On June 7, 2020, unidentified persons assaulted a NHIDCL engineer, Sujit Kumar Singh, and his driver at Nonglang village in South West Khasi Hills District.
Though all these incidents are under investigation, there is a discernible pattern indicating the likely involvement of Khasi militant group Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC).
On June 3, 2020, HNLC militants shot at and injured a businessman, Dharambir Bansal, at Kyllong Mathei village in the West Khasi Hills District. A day later, Sainkupar Nongtraw, HNLC's 'general secretary' and 'publicity secretary' admitted,
Sainkupar Nongtraw further stated that at this time of novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), thousands of youths have been rendered jobless and added,
HNLC on June 4, 2020, warned all businessmen to pay ‘income tax’ to the outfit or ‘face the consequences’.
Earlier, on February 20, 2020, HNLC had detonated an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) inside a coke factory owned by Dharambir Bansal at Kyllon Mathei village in West Khasi Hills District. Sainkupar Nongtraw had stated,
HNLC had on February 19, 2020, demanded INR 130 million from Dharambir Bansal.
On January 16, 2020, HNLC militants had planted an IED in an under-construction coke plant of M/S Meghalaya Coke at Bther village in East Jaintia Hills District. Claiming responsibility, Sainkupar Nongtraw had stated,
HNLC was formed in 1992 with the main aim to ‘liberate’ Hynniewtrep (Khasi and Jaintia) from the ‘authoritarian rule’ of the Government of India, protect Khasi and other tribes from exploitation, preserve indigenous culture and fight against any attempt to divide Khasi society.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) there have been a total of 56 HNLC-linked fatalities (16 civilians, nine Security Force, SF, personnel, 30 militants, one unspecified) since March 1, 2000 (data till June 19, 2020). The peak in terms of fatalities was recorded in the year 2001, when HNLC was found involved in 16 fatalities (nine civilians, five SF personnel, one militant and one unspecified). Over the past decade and half, the militant formation lost it prowess almost to the point of oblivion after the group lost a substantial number of cadres, mostly to surrenders or arrests. According to SATP, since March 1, 2000, SFs have arrested 209 militants (all data till June 19, 2020). Another 176 HNLC militants surrendered during this period, due to sustained SF pressure. In the latest incident of surrender, on February 12, 2020, the ‘finance secretary’ of HNLC, Wankupar Marwein aka Bahhep Traisiej, surrendered before the State Police in Shillong.
The recent spurt in activities can be linked to the reconstitution of HNLC’s ‘Central Executive Council (CEC)’ on January 2, 2019. The CEC is headed by ‘chairman’ and ‘commander-in-chief’, Bobby Reagan Marwein; ‘general secretary’ and ‘publicity secretary’, Sainkupar Nongtraw; ‘vice chairman’, Khrawbok Jyrwa; ‘foreign secretary’, Alex Diengdoh; ‘finance secretary’, Wanshan Marwein; ‘organising secretary’, Riewpyrkhat Sun; and ‘socio cultural secretary’, M. Rynjah.
The HNLC is trying to regain its foothold in the state. For this purpose, it is using extortion to enrich its coffers and is exploring all opportunities to secure public support by exploiting popular sentiments.
Indeed, following the killing of a Khasi Students Union (KSU) activist, identified as Lurshai Hynniewta, on February 28, 2020, HNLC on March 1, 2020, had issued an ultimatum to all the Hindu-Bengalis to leave the Ichamati and Majai areas of Shella in East Khasi Hills within one-month. Sainkupar Nongtraw in a statement had warned,
Sharing the details of the incident, Meghalaya Police wrote on its Facebook page,
Meanwhile, there are reports of Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) cadres trying to regroup in the Garo Hills region of the State. South Garo Hills Superintendent of Police Abraham T Sangma told The Shillong Times that Police had received credible information from their sources that GNLA militants, with support from United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) cadres and criminal gangs from the neighbouring country, Myanmar, were planning to revive GNLA.
GNLA had been all but decimated on February 24, 2018, when its ‘commander in chief’ Sohan D. Shira was killed in an encounter with commandos of the Meghalaya Special Force-10 at Dobu A’chakpek in East Garo Hills District. Since the formation of GNLA in November 2009, Meghalaya recorded at least 173 militant fatalities, among which 160 were linked to specific militant groups. Of these 160, at least 83 were drawn from GNLA. GNLA linked fatalities were highest in 2012, at 39 (22 civilians, one trooper and 16 militants). There was a consistent decline in total fatalities after that. Since February 24, 2018, no GNLA linked fatalities were recorded.
There is need to remain extremely vigilant with regard to the degraded insurgent movements in Meghalaya. The potential for revival, based on local emotive issue like jobs for locals and preservation of identity, persists. Apart from dealing with these groups coercively, the State Government and civil society groups need to broaden the political discourse to limit the ascendency of violent identity-based politics, in order to secure an enduring solution to the recurrent cycles of violence.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia June 15-21, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Taliban killed 89 civilians in past two weeks, says Afghan Government: On June 13, Afghan Government said that at least 89 civilians were killed in Taliban attacks over the past two weeks in Afghanistan. Javid Faisal, a Spokesman for the National Security Council, said that 150 more civilians were wounded by militants during the period. He said that the casualties happened in 29 of 34 Provinces of the country. Tv News, June 16, 2020.
War in Afghanistan was the world's deadliest conflict for children in 2019, says UN report: The United Nations (UN) in a report named "Annual Children in Armed Conflict", released on June 15, said the war in Afghanistan was the world's deadliest conflict for children last year (2019), a status the country has held for five consecutive years. The UN report says that 874 children were killed by the war throughout 2019. It adds that these numbers were among the 3,410 young Afghans who suffered from "grave violations", which included maiming, abduction, sexual abuse and attacks at schools and hospitals. Tolo News, June 16, 2020.
IS-KP receives USD 200 million annually from Pakistani ISI, revels documentary: According to a documentary named ''Daesh in Afghanistan'', Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) gives Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISK-P) in Afghanistan, around USD 200 million in aid every year. The ISKP, as per Afghanistan's National Security Adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, is a broad umbrella under which many elements from the Haqqani Network, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Kashmir-specific terror group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) have come together to strengthen the Afghan Taliban against the elected Government in Afghanistan. Outlook, June 11, 2020.
US reduces troop level to 8,600 in Afghanistan, says General Kenneth McKenzie: General Kenneth McKenzie, Head of the United States (US) Central Command, on June 18, said that the US has reduced its troop level to 8,600 in Afghanistan, fulfilling the first phase of the planned withdrawal specified in the US-Taliban deal signed in Doha, Qatar in February, 2020. The withdrawal of the US forces is a key part of the US-Taliban agreement, but US officials have emphasised that the troop pullout will be dependent on conditions on the ground. "What I would tell you now is we have met our part of the agreement," McKenzie stated. Tolo News, June 19, 2020.
NATO reiterates support for Afghan Peace: General Kenneth McKenzie, Head of the United States (US) Central Command, on June 18, said that the US has reduced its troop level to 8,600 in Afghanistan, fulfilling the first phase of the planned withdrawal specified in the US-Taliban deal signed in Doha, Qatar in February, 2020. The withdrawal of the US forces is a key part of the US-Taliban agreement, but US officials have emphasised that the troop pullout will be dependent on conditions on the ground. "What I would tell you now is we have met our part of the agreement," McKenzie stated. Tolo News, June 17, 2020.
ISI and Khalistani terrorists misusing drones to fuel terror attacks in India, reveal security agencies: Indian security agencies have revealed that Pakistan's spy agency - Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) along with Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF) and other Khalistani terrorist groups are using drones to deliver arms and ammunition from across the International Border (IB) into the Indian territory. In this context, the Border Security Force (BSF) officials said, nearly a dozen Chinese commercial drone sorties, carrying almost 100 kilograms of arms and ammunition, were sent from across the border into Punjab by the Pakistan-based Khalistani terror groups in close coordination with the ISI between September 9 and 16, 2019. Outlook, June 20, 2020.
ISI directs separatists to spearhead anti-India hate campaign, says report: In a bid to rejuvenate the Khalistan movement in Punjab, Pakistan's intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has directed the separatist Sikh groups based in Canada and the US to spearhead the anti-India hate campaign in Punjab through a flood of phone calls. As per the report, Indian Intelligence agencies have identified more than 20 phone numbers of Khalistan extremists, originating from the US, Pakistan and other destinations, used in spreading audio messages in various Districts in Punjab. Outlook, June 17, 2020.
Maoists are facing leadership crisis in Andhra Odisha Border, says report: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in the cut-off area of Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) are facing a leadership crisis, as the link between the cadre base and the main leadership has reportedly been severed. As per the report, post-October 2016 Ramaguda encounter, in which over 30 Maoists, including senior leaders, were killed by the anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] force of the Andhra Pradesh Greyhounds, the State Police have been on the offensive. The Hindu, June 13, 2020.
The human rights situation in Balochistan has deteriorated, says VBMP leader Mama Qadeer Baloch: The Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) leader Mama Qadeer Baloch on June 20 said the human rights situation in Balochistan has been worsened, where human rights activists have turned a blind eye, and the state media has become an ally of the forces and is advocating their misdeeds. VBMP completed its 3995th day of protest on June 20, in front of Quetta Press club. The Balochistan Post, June 22, 2020.
Peshawar High Court acquits 200 convicts previously sentenced by military courts, says report: The Peshawar High Court acquitted 200 convicts previously sentenced by the military courts. The high court maintained that the convicts had been sentenced only through 'confessional statements' and none had been given a 'fair trial.' According to details, the Peshawar High Court has ordered the immediate release of 200 convicts that had been sentenced by the military courts previously. The Balochistan Post, June16, 2020.
US report on religious freedom blames Pakistan for targeted killing of minorities: The United States (US) '2019 International Religious Freedom Report' has voiced concern over the targeted killing in Pakistan of Shia Muslims, including ethnic Hazaras, who are largely Shia, and Ahmadi Muslims in attacks believed to be driven by faith. The report that documents major instances of the violation of religious freedom across the world, released by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department on June 10, said human rights activists reported numerous instances of societal violence related to allegations of blasphemy; of efforts by individuals to coerce religious minorities to convert to Islam; and of societal harassment, discrimination, and threats of violence directed at members of religious minority communities. ANI, June11, 2020.
President assures free and fair general election under strict health guidelines: President Gotabaya Rajapaksa while meeting with the Chairman and the members of the Elections Commission (EC) at the Presidential Secretariat on June 17, assured to create the background to hold a free and fair election while giving priority to the health protection of the people. The President said that the Government will extend its fullest cooperation to the EC to make the election process a success while adhering to health guidelines. Colombo Page, June 18, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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