South Asia Terrorism Portal
Catastrophe Foretold Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
In the evening of August 15, 2021, the Taliban captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul. Declaring the 'end of war', Taliban's political office spokesperson Mohammad Naeem stated,
Meanwhile, incumbent Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, reportedly to neighboring Tajikistan. In a Facebook post, Ghani claimed, "To avoid bloodshed, I thought it would be better to leave." Commenting on Ghani's 'escape 'Naeem said, "even those close to him did not expect it," adding "We are ready to have a dialogue with all Afghan figures and will guarantee them the necessary protection". Earlier, on August 14, two of Afghanistan's regional strongmen, Atta Mohammad Noor, the former governor of Balkh Province and the ethnic Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum, fled to neighboring Uzbekistan. The duo fled after the fall of Mazar-i-Sharif city.
The ouster of another "puppet Government" in Afghanistan within months of the start of the final drawdown of international troops from Afghanistan (withdrawal began on May 1, 2021) demonstrates the failure of 'superpowers' to impose their will on Kabul, with Mohammad Naeem asserting, "We do not think that foreign forces will repeat their failed experience in Afghanistan once again."
The humiliation of the United States (US) is, indeed, far greater than what the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) faced at the hands of the Afghan Mujahideen, when the USSR was forced to leave Afghanistan in 1988-89. The USSR was confronted with a proxy war backed by the combined Western powers led by the US. US has lost to the Taliban backed by Pakistan alone..
Referring America's disgrace, US Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell argued that "terrorists and major competitors like China are watching the embarrassment of a superpower laid low." While he blamed US President Joe Biden for what he called a "shameful failure of American leadership," Biden was only realizing what has been in the making for over a decade, certainly since Obama's incoherent "AfPak policy" of 2009, which initiated the trend of announcing withdrawal dates for US and coalition forces, signaling to the Taliban and their Pakistani backers that they simply had to wait their adversary out. As had been noted then:
Despite the many brave announcements of policy since then, little changed in the more than a decade that followed. The Western alliance was unwilling to commit to an open-ended engagement in Afghanistan, failed to define clear strategic goals, constantly sought a craven peace with the Taliban, and, crucially, knowingly ignored Pakistan's malicious actions that were, throughout, the very crux of conflict in Afghanistan.
However,the US political and defence leadership - indeed, the world leadership - was caught unawares by the sheer pace of the developments on the ground in Afghanistan. On August 11, just four days before the final takeover of Kabul by the Taliban, an unnamed US defence official cited US intelligence as saying that Taliban fighters could isolate Afghanistan's capital in 30 days and possibly take it over within 90 days. The new assessment of how long Kabul could stand purportedly accounted for the of the Taliban's rapid gains in the preceding months.Moreover, the official further asserted that "this is not a foregone conclusion" and that the Afghan Security Forces could reverse the momentum by putting up more resistance.
But there was not an iota of doubt that Taliban would eventually capture power. Indeed,on April 22, 2021,General Frank McKenzie had warned that Afghanistan's military "will certainly collapse" without some continued American support once all US troops are withdrawn..
Despite this, and despite the Taliban's contemptuous disregard of its commitments under the Doha Agreement of February 2020, the US failed to provide the necessary and continued support, even as Kabul was continuously pressurized to adhere to every nicety of the agreement to which it was not even a party. The release of around 5,500Taliban prisoners had been conditional on the Taliban's commitment that they would not rejoin the fighting - but an overwhelming majority did so immediately. Instead of holding the Taliban to account, the US continued to urge the Ghani Government to release an even larger number of prisoners than had been agreed upon at Doha. Moreover, despite the Taliban's commitment to reduce violence in Afghanistan, the Western powers never sought to hold it to account as Taliban violence escalated across the country. Eventually, as the final drawdown commenced on May 1, the Taliban rampage became unstoppable, even as the well-established devices of bribery and opportunistic shifts of loyalty - the essence of the Taliban's rapid capture of power after 1993 as well - saw province after province fall like ninepins.
Unlike 1993, however, not even the pocket of resistance in the Northern areas has been left intact. The Taliban has successfully pre-empted any consolidation of ethnic resistance in these areas by bringing large areas on the North under its sway over the past year, excluding the possibilities of leverage or indirect intervention through ethnic minority proxies in the foreseeable future.
Despite the catastrophic consequences that were unfolding in Afghanistan, and the colossal erosion of America's 'super power' status, the Biden Administration held stubbornly to spinelessness, 'honouring' the deal to leave the country, despite the Taliban's manifest disdain for every clause of its own commitments.
The biggest and most persistent blunder of US policy has been the reliance on Islamabad. In these final stages, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, on whom the US relied to help rein in the Taliban, at least for a few months to help the US secure an 'honorable exit', was in no way going to miss the opportunity to install its proxy in Kabul, before any outbreak of civil war or consolidation of effective resistance which many experts predicted or hoped for. It needs to be emphasized that the Taliban has entered the Presidential Palace even when almost a month is still left for Washington's declared drawdown deadline of September 11, 2021.
The US has now been forced to send additional troops to secure the evacuation of its own citizens in the country in scenes that are reminiscent of the chaotic flight from Vietnam. Worse, as Matt Zeller, a US veteran of the Afghan war, points out, some 44,000 Afghans who helped Washington during the conflict were outside Kabul and required urgent evacuation."This is a disaster of epic proportions," he said, warning that Afghans who helped the US military may now be "hunted down and systematically murdered by the Taliban."
Meanwhile,the US along with 65 countries released a joint statement calling for facilitation of the departure of foreign nationals and Afghans who wished to leave the country. With reports of civilian slaughters coming in from Taliban held territories in the Provinces, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a statement imploring the Taliban to "exercise utmost restraint in order to protect lives."
Indeed, almost after 20 years since their invasion of Afghanistan, the US and its allies have once again abandoned Afghanistan to the mercy of the Taliban. At the time of writing there is chaos everywhere in the country.
Meanwhile, the Taliban posted "the latest developments and [its] advancements" in Afghanistan, on its website on August 15. The post sought to reassure the population that "no one should worry about their life." The Taliban also "announced and amnesty" to "All those who have previously worked and helped the invaders, or are now standing in the ranks of the corrupt Administration of Kabul." The "Islamic Emirate" has also urged "Those who have recently been affected by the enemy's propaganda, displaced internally, or migrated to foreign countries, whether official or civilian, they should return to their homes and areas…" The "Emirate" has also sought to "assure all our neighbors that we will not create any problems for them" or for "diplomats, embassies, consulates, and charitable workers, whether they are international or national."
There has been much hopeful commentary that "Taliban 2.0" is an improved and much-civilized version of the Taliban that ruled the country between 1996 and 2001.The Taliban, however, remain unshakable in their commitment to establish "Islamic rule", with their brutal interpretation of Shariah as the law of the land. In various statements, Taliban leaders haver reiterated that this includes the restoration of punishments such as stoning to death and the cutting off of hands for various crimes. The population segment most terrified by current developments are the women and girls of Afghanistan, who had secured a measure of freedom and education, and many of whom had attained prominent positions in society. Early indications suggest that there is little possibility of such freedoms and roles remaining accessible to women in a Talibanized Afghanistan.
It is much too early to assess what the regional and global outcome of the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan will be, but one thing is certain, the 'great game' is once again afoot. The 'victory of Islam' against another superpower will surely provoke significant radicalization and may catalyze terrorism in theatres across the world. But uncertainties persist. Those who are celebrating the Taliban victory in Afghanistan have their own fears and insecurities; those who are on the losing side will seek opportunities for recovery and revenge. Afghanistan's trials and tribulations are far from over. The world has changed, of course; but it remains much the same.
Polarizing Centre S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Sri Lankan President's office on August 11, 2021, stated that the Government has filed 23,270 charges against 25 people in connection with the April 21, 2019, Easter Sunday suicide bomb attacks on churches and hotels in Colombo and Batticaloa Districts, which killed 262 people. The charges framed under Sri Lanka's Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), included conspiring to murder, aiding and abetting, collecting arms and ammunition, and attempted murder. Attorney General Sanjay Rajaratnam asked Chief Justice Jayantha Jayasuriya to appoint a special three-member High Court bench to hear the cases speedily.
Earlier, on April 5, 2021, the final report of the Cabinet Sub-Committee, appointed to study the Report of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI) into the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings, was handed over to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The Committee, appointed by the President on February 19, 2021, after studying the PCoI report at length, identified 78 recommendations. The report includes how and by which agencies those recommendations should be implemented.
Meanwhile, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who returned to power in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday attacks, exploiting the public disillusionment with the then incumbent Government, is rapidly tightening the Rajapaksa family's grip on power in Sri Lanka.
On July 8, 2021, Basil Rajapaksa (70), the younger brother of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn as the Finance Minister in Sri Lanka's Cabinet. With his entry, the Cabinet headed by Gotabaya now has five members of the Rajapaksa family. Elder brother Chamal Rajapaksa is Minister of Irrigation and Mahinda's son Namal Rajapaksa is the Minister of Digital Technology and Entrepreneur Development.
Other Rajapaksas are also clustered around the power centre. Chamal Rajapaksa's son Shasheendra Rajapaksa is the State Minister of Organic Fertilizer Production, Supply and Regulation and the Paddy and Grains, Organic Food, Vegetables, Fruits, Chillies, Onion and Potato Cultivation Promotion, Seed Production and Advanced Technology for Agriculture. Nipuna Ranawaka, son of Rajapaksas' sister Gandini Rajapaksa Ranawaka, is a Member of Parliament. Naval Officer Yoshita Rajapaksa, another son of Mahinda, is the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff. According to some estimates, about 75 per cent of the total budget of Sri Lanka is directly under the purview of Rajapaksa family Ministers in the Government.
The Rajapaksas were ousted in 2015 when Mahinda lost the Presidential Election, but were back in power after the November 16, 2019, Presidential Elections, which brought Gotabaya to the Presidency. Soon, one by one, the brothers and other family members were back in the business of Government. Further, consolidating their power, the Mahinda Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP, Sri Lanka People's Front) swept the August 5, 2020, Parliamentary Elections. SLPP received 6,853,693 votes (59.09 percent) and secured 128 electoral seats in a total of 225-member Parliament.
After reassuming power, the Rajapaksa's have taken several steps to ensure the longevity of their rule.
Indeed, in the very first meeting of the new Cabinet, held on August 19, 2020, the Sri Lanka Government decided to abolish the 19th Amendment and pushed through the 20th Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka, which passed into law on October 22, 2020. The 20th Amendment granted sweeping powers to the Executive President. The Amendment, in essence, advances the democratic backsliding of Sri Lanka by granting the President unfettered powers. The President can summarily appoint or dismiss Ministers, including the Prime Minister, and can modify the number of Ministries, the number of Ministers, and the functions delegated to each Minister whenever he wants. The Amendment also removed the prohibition on the President himself from holding ministerial posts. It also allows the President the power to dissolve Parliament only two and a half years into the new Parliament, compared with the former four-and-a-half-year minimum period mandated by the 19th Amendment.
The Rajapaksa Government also made various institutional changes in the country, in many cases inclining towards militarization. It has placed over 30 agencies, including the Police, under the authority of the Ministry of Defense. Retired and serving military officers have been appointed to numerous key posts previously held by civilians. On June 2, 2020, President Rajapaksa established a Presidential Task Force to build a "Secure Country, Disciplined, Virtuous and Lawful Society," composed entirely of military and security officials, with loosely defined powers and the authority to issue instructions to all Government officials. On June 4, 2021, President Gotabaya issued a gazette notice naming the Counter Terrorism Investigation Unit (CTIU) as a place of detention. The gazette had been issued as a notification under Section 9 of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). Section 9 refers to the detention of suspects arrested under the PTA, and empowers the CTIU to use its facility to detain such suspects.
On the other hand, efforts of ethnic reconciliation and trust building with ethnic Tamils have seen no progress even as demonstrations and protests by Tamils have become a regular feature. Most recently, demonstrations were carried out across the country's North-East on July 24, 2021, to mark the 38th anniversary of Black July (the common name used to refer to the anti-Tamil pogrom that occurred in Sri Lanka from July 24-29, 1983), paying tribute to the thousands of Tamils who lost their lives then. Despite Sri Lankan Security Forces (SFs) banning demonstrations in some places, protests were carried out in multiple Districts, including Jaffna, Amparai, Vavuniya and Mannar. Separately, a group of lawmakers from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) marked 'Tamil Genocide Day' at the Sri Lankan Parliament complex in Colombo on May 18, 2021, before a parliamentary session was due to take place. The parliamentarians dressed in black and lit candles by a red and yellow flag, before holding a moment of silence to commemorate the 'tens of thousands of Tamil civilians killed at the hands' of the Sri Lankan state 12 years ago. On February 4, 2021, thousands of Sri Lankan Tamils marched in the northern and eastern regions to demand the release of prisoners and seek information on thousands of Tamils missing since the end of the ethnic war 11 years ago.
Significantly, on March 23, 2021, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva adopted a resolution on alleged human rights violations by Sri Lanka during the final days of the separatist war. The draft resolution A/HRC/46/L.1/Rev.1, entitled "Promoting Reconciliation, Accountability and Human Rights in Sri Lanka" was adopted by the UNHRC after 22 members out of 47 voted in favour of the resolution at the 46th Session in Geneva. 11 members, including China and Russia, voted against the resolution while 14 countries, including India and Japan, abstained from voting.
Referring to the resolution, Chief Opposition whip Lakshman Kiriella stated, on March 25, 2021, that the UNHRC mainly focused on the anti-democratic governance of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He told Parliament that only two-and-a-half pages were focused on the war out of seventeen and a half pages of the resolution. "Many areas in the resolution focused on anti-democratic actions, a threat to media freedom and issues concerning the minority communities," he said..
Meanwhile, in its latest travel advisory for Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom has noted,
While the intelligence on which this advisory is based is not clear, and there appears to be little imminent threat of a major terrorist attack in the country, there is a residual threat from Islamist forces and marginal elements supporting the now defunct Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the beginning of the current year, 25 former LTTE cadres and sympathizers have been arrested for various plots across the country (data till August 15, 2021). There were four such arrests in 2020. Since the end of Eelam War between the Government forces and the LTTE, which officially ended on May 20, 2009, at least 371 former LTTE cadres and sympathizers have been arrested.
While the state's counter-terrorism initiatives have been enormously successful, residual threats can be exacerbated by the polarizing politics that has come to characterize the Rajapaksas' politics. It is essential that the Government ensures that the recommendations of the Cabinet Sub-Committee to study PCoI, are implemented in true spirt. However, given Rajapaksa family's attempt to further strengthen their hold on Sri Lankan politics, there is a strong possibility of the Government targeting the Opposition, exploiting the adverse comments against Opposition leaders in the PCoI.
It is useful to recall that the PCoI had recorded that friction and a communication breakdown between the then-President Maithripala Sirisena and the then-Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe were blamed for the Government's failure to act on near-specific foreign intelligence warnings ahead of the Easter Sunday attacks. Raising walls of mistrust and exclusion withing the country will eventually tend to undermine national security.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia August 9-15, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
Afghanistan
India
Jammu and Kashmir
Meghalaya
India (Left-Wing Extremism)
Jharkhand
Total (India)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
Total (Pakistan)
Total (South Asia)
President Ashraf Ghani left the country after the Taliban entered Kabul city: On August 15, President Ashraf Ghani left the country after the Taliban entered Kabul, the national capital of Afghanistan. According to the sources, his close aides have also left the country along with him. Reuters adds the Ashraf Ghani has gone to Tajikistan. Tolo News, Reuters, August 16, 2021.
Former President Hamid Karzai announces the formation of a Coordination Council to prevent chaos and to better manage the transfer of power: Former President Hamid Karzai on August 15 announced that a Coordination Council has been formed to prevent chaos and to better manage matters related to peace and the peaceful transfer of power. "The Coordination Council is composed of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of the Supreme National Reconciliation Council, Jihadi Leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Emir of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan, and Hamid Karzai, former president of the country," the statement released by Hamid Karzai said. Tolo News, August 16, 2021.
Taliban spokesman says new Government will include non-Taliban Afghans: On August 15, Taliban spokesman Sohail Shaheen said that a new Taliban Government will include non-Taliban Afghans. Taliban spokesperson told CNN's Nic Robertson in a video interview when asked whether members of the former Afghan Government will be part of the Government, said it would be "premature" right now to name who the officials will be, but he said that they are trying to have some "well known figures" to be part of the Government. CNN International , August 16, 2021.
Some people from Bangladesh trying to join Taliban in Afghanistan, says DMP Commissioner Mohamad Shafiqul Islam: Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) Commissioner Mohamad Shafiqul Islam while talking to reporters on August 14 said that some people from Bangladesh trying to join Taliban in Afghanistan. He said "We think some people have been caught in India, and some are trying to reach Afghanistan on foot in various ways. Cyber technology has captivated the world, and militants are recruiting and encouraging people to use it. Recently, the Taliban has urged people to join the war in Afghanistan and some people, responding to their call, have left home. We just want to say the militants are active." The Daily Star, August 12, 2021.
ISI floats new terror outfit Hizb-e-Wilayat to hit Indian assets in Afghanistan, says report: Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has floated a new terror outfit, Hizb-e-Wilayat to carry out attacks exclusively on Indian assets in Afghanistan. The outfit, headed by one Dr Anwar Firdausi, will comprise elements of the 10,000 jihadis pushed across the border by Pakistan into Afghanistan to aid the Taliban in violent takeover of the war-ravaged country from the democratically elected Abdul Ghani Government, sources privy to the development said. The Pioneer, August 13, 2021.
JMB married its cadres to Indian girls to recruit their family members, according to NIA: Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), had adopted a unique model of making new recruits in India, National Investigation Agency (NIA) claimed that the JMB used to marry its cadres with Indian women to recruit their family members into the terror organisation. A senior NIA source related to the probe said that the agency has been probing several cases of the Bangladeshi terror outfit, and the JMB came into existence around 2014, but garnered attention after the Burdwan bomb blast of October 2, 2014. Odisha TV, August 13, 2021.
ISIS using radical content translated into South Indian languages to recruit people, states NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has shared inputs mentioning that the Islamic State/Islamic State of Iraq and Levant /Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Daish (ISIS) is spreading its radical propaganda among the Muslim youth in India through propaganda materials translated into South-Indian languages, especially Malayalam. These inputs came during the interrogation of Jufri Jawhar Damudi, who was arrested on August 6 during NIA raids in Karnataka in connection with the Voice of Hind case. Ani News, August 12, 2021.
State finding it tough to tackle 84 frontal organizations of Maoist, dens in five Districts of Maharashtra: Maharashtra, known as the hub of urban Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), is learnt to be finding it difficult to tackle frontal organizations which are fast spreading their wings. According to intelligence reports, Maharashtra has the highest 84 frontal organizations having secret dens in at least five Districts in Gondia, Nagpur, Nashik, Pune and Mumbai. Times of India, August 11, 2021.
All members of NLFB will return to mainstream, says BTC chief Pramod Boro: On August 9, Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) chief Pramod Boro said all the members of the newly-floated militant organisation, National Liberation Front of Bodoland (NLFB), will come to the mainstream. He further added, "The leaders along with cadres of the extremist organization, NLFB, have already realized and returned to the mainstream so far in two phases. I hope that all of them will return to the mainstream and be involved in community development. East Mojo, August 10, 2021.
Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato removed from Central Committee of JSP-N: Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal (JSP-N) Chairman Upendra Yadav on August 15 removed 16 leaders including Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato from the party's Central Committee. Chairman Yadav has decided not to call 16 leaders close to Thakur, including Thakur and Mahato, at the party's Central Committee meeting, which is scheduled to be held on August 17 and 18. My Republica, August 16, 2021.
Stability in Tribal Districts critical to regional security, says USAID-KP Acting Director Altaf Afridi: The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Acting Director Altaf Afridi on August 6 said that stability in Tribal Districts critical to regional security. USAID is supporting the KP Government in expanding governance, improving services delivery, creating economic opportunities and developing infrastructure in the province particularly in recently-merged Tribal Districts. The Express Tribune, August 10, 2021.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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