South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Buying an Improbable Peace
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
 

On January 7, 2022, two terrorists were killed during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) on Amirwanda Road within Lakki Police Station of Bannu District.

On January 5, 2022, two soldiers were killed during an IBO in Kot Kili village in the South Waziristan District. The operation was carried out by Security Forces (SFs) following reports of terrorist presence in the area.

On the same day, two terrorists were killed and three were arrested during another IBO carried out by SFs in the Tank area of Dera Ismail Khan District. One militant surrendered to the SFs. A cache of ammunition, including Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and rockets, was recovered from the encounter site.

On January 1, 2022, unidentified assailants killed a Police official near a fruit and vegetable market under Mandan Police Station limits in Bannu town (Bannu District).

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), three SF personnel and four terrorists have been killed in the current year, thus far (data till January 9, 2022). No civilian killing has yet been recorded in the current year. During the corresponding period of 2021, the province recorded just one fatality (a trooper).

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded a total of 303 fatalities (71 civilians, 108 SF personnel and 124 terrorists) in 130 incidents of killing in 2021, as against 216 such fatalities (61 civilians, 57 SF personnel, and 98 terrorists) in 78 such incidents in 2020, registering an increase of 40.27 per cent in overall fatalities. There were 130 fatalities in 2019. Clearly, overall violence increased sharply over 2019 – 2021.

More worryingly, SF fatalities almost doubled from 57 in 2020 to 108 in 2021. SF fatalities recorded in the province in 2021 are the highest in a year since 2015, when there were 81 such fatalities. Though terrorist fatalities also increased in 2021, from 98 in 2020 to 124, the SF:Terrorist kill ratio dropped from 1:1.71 to 1:1.14.

Not surprisingly, civilian fatalities increased from 61 in 2020 to 71 in 2021. There were 30 fatalities in this category in 2019. 

Other parameters of violence also indicate a worsening security situation in the province. Total terrorism-linked incidents jumped sharply from 99 to 169.

The number of major incidents (each involving three or more killings) increased from 28 in 2020 to 42 in 2021. The resultant fatalities in such attacks also increased from 145 in 2020 to 189 in 2021. Similarly, KP accounted for an increased number of explosions, from 25 in 2020 to 32 in 2021, and the resulting fatalities increased from 45 to 52.

The province witnessed two suicide attacks in 2021 as against one in 2020. The suicide attacks included:

July 14: A vehicle driven by a suicide bomber and laden with explosives rammed a convoy of Chinese workers headed to the Dasu Hydropower Plant project site at Dasu in the Upper Kohistan District of KP, killing at least 13 persons, including nine Chinese, one Pakistani civilian and two Frontier Corps (FC) personnel. Two buses carrying workers from the China Gezhouba Group Co., a construction company based in Wuhan, China, were badly damaged in the explosion. Though, there was no claim of responsibility for the attack, the KP Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) claimed, on December 30, that the bombers belonged to the Islamic State.

December 19: Two people were killed while another four were injured in a suicide attack on an Awami National Party (ANP) vehicle near the Pakistan-Afghan border in the Sur Qamar area within Laghrey Police Station limits in Bajaur District. No one claimed responsibility for the attack.

Out of 35 Districts of KP, 21 recorded terrorism-related violence, according to SATP. The most violent District in 2021 was North Waziristan, which accounted for 106 deaths, followed by South Waziristan (51 fatalities), Peshawar (25 fatalities) and Bajaur (22 fatalities). In 2020 as well, North Waziristan recorded the maximum of 110 killings, followed by Peshawar (27) and South Waziristan (21). Out of 35 Districts, 19 Districts registered terrorism-related incidents in 2020. Similarly, 2019 also saw terrorism-related incidents in 19 Districts, out of which North Waziristan had the highest number of fatalities (50), followed by Dera Ismail Khan (30), Peshawar (9) and Upper Dir (6).     

Clearly, North Waziristan remains the epicentre of violence in the province. This is not surprising, as Pakistan had deliberately delayed operations in North Waziristan for long, as the region provided shelter to its own Afghan terrorist proxy, the Haqqani Network. The Haqqani Network has been persistently accused by the United States of attacking allied and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan had, however, resisted American pressure to go in for an all-out operation in the province in order to ensure that the Haqqani Network’s safe haven was not disrupted. However, after the Jinnah International Airport attack on June 8, 2014, Pakistan lunched Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) on June 15, 2014, against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists, after extracting Haqqani cadres from the region. But this long delay had also been utilised by the TTP to remove its own cadres and leaders. Both TTP and Haqqani cadres reportedly took shelter in adjoining areas of Afghanistan. With the Taliban gaining ascendency in the Afghan War, a conducive environment for the TTP to regain its strength was established. Moreover, unification of a strengthened TTP commenced.

On August 17, 2020, TTP confirmed that the breakaway Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA) had re-joined the group. JuA ‘chief’ Omar Khalid Khurasani and HuA ‘chief’ Omar Khurasani pledged allegiance to TTP ‘chief’ Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP statement indicated. JuA had parted ways with TTP in 2014, after developing differences with the then leader of the group, Mullah Fazlullah. It had even condemned the TTP’s December 16, 2014, Army Public School attack, which resulted in the death of 148 persons, including 135 children. HuA was formed later, after JuA split into two groups. Earlier, after the death of TTP-Hakimullah Mehsud (TTP-HK) ‘chief’ Shehryar Mehsud on February 12, 2020, TTP-HK, under its ‘commander’ Mukhlis Yaar Mehsud, re-joined the parent outfit in July 2020. A regrouped, resurgent TTP has become a major challenge for the security establishment.

Simultaneously, TTP started making deep inroads in KP. With the Taliban-Haqqani Network combine at the helm of power in Afghanistan, North Waziristan and surrounding areas of KP were the most likely to witness a steep surge in violence.

Indeed, since August 15, 2021, when the Afghan Taliban gained control in Afghanistan, the lethality of attacks on SFs in Pakistan’s tribal belt has spiked. From August 15, 2021, to January 7, 2022, there 34 attacks were executed against SFs killing 56 personnel. During the corresponding period preceding, 33 SF personnel had been killed in 32 attacks.  

On September 22, 2021, the Awami National Party (ANP), which was in Government during the KP’s troubled years (2008-2013), warned that a new wave of terrorism was emerging, and that it would engulf the entire country if not controlled at the present stage. “The terrorists are regrouping in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” ANP provincial president Aimal Wali Khan declared. He asked the Government to contain the spread of extremism and terrorism, and added that a failure to take concrete steps would send the message that the Government or state institutions were party to the violence.

There is no doubt that TTP and the Afghan Taliban are ideological twins. Indeed, during an interview with on July 26, 2021, TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud asserted that his group had a ‘good relationship’ with the Afghan Taliban and hoped to benefit from the latter’s victories across the border. He further warned that TTP would continue its “war against Pakistan’s security forces” and declared that the outfit’s goal was to “take control of the border regions and make them independent.” This is the first time that TTP’s leadership has called for an independent state in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

However, instead of taking strong actions against TTP, despite the fact that the group had stepped up attacks in the province, the Pakistan Government, is trying to negotiate with the outfit with the help of the Taliban. As a result, both sides agreed on a month-long ceasefire between November 9 and December 9.

On December 9, however, TTP declined to extend the ceasefire with the Government, alleging that the state forces had not only failed to implement the decisions reached between the two sides but, on the contrary, had conducted raids in Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Swabi and North Waziristan, killing and detaining many fighters. TTP consequently declared, “Under these circumstances, it is not possible to extend the ceasefire.” Mufti Noor Wali Mahsud announced an end to the ceasefire and asked his fighters to resume attacks.

During the month-long ceasefire, though five SF personnel were killed in three terrorism-related incidents, no TTP terrorist had been killed, according to data available in open sources.  Indeed, during the ceasefire, the Government reportedly released more than 100 TTP prisoners as a “goodwill gesture,” to reciprocate the group’s acceptance of the ceasefire.

While Islamabad is evidently trying to buy peace with TTP in KP in particular, and across the country at large, with the help of the Afghan Taliban the possibilities of success remain limited.

Moreover, the threat from the Islamic State (IS) is increasing. While no IS-linked fatality was reported in 2020, two IS-linked attacks were reported in 2021. Apart from the July 14, 2021, suicide attack, on October 1, 2021, IS claimed responsibility for killing a Sikh physician, Satnam Singh (45), in the Charsadda Road area of Peshawar on September 30. The IS statement described Satnam Singh as a "polytheist'' and declared that he was shot dead by its cadres because of this. On December 20, 2021, three IS terrorists, including a senior ‘commander’, were killed during an intelligence-based operation in the Malik Saad Shaheed area under the Faqirabad Police Station of Peshawar. Three Kalashnikovs, pistols and explosives were recovered from the slain terrorists.

Efforts to buy peace with TTP continue, but terrorist violence in KP is surging again, as these overtures are seen as a sign of weakness by a resurgent TTP, operating with the implicit support of the Afghan Taliban. These developments may have a cascading effect on KP, as well as on the rest of Pakistan.

INDIA

Mizoram: Collateral Threats
Oyindrila Chattopadhyay
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On December 31, 2021, Security Forces (SFs) during an operation recovered large quantity of explosives from an area three kilometers south of Mawhre village in Saiha District along the India-Myanmar International Border. The recoveries included 81 kilograms of liquid explosives, 94 kilograms of Belox granules, 395 kilograms of Gelatin rods, 356 rounds of a 12-gauge shotgun, 70 mm cartridges, one Improvised Explosive Device, lead-acid battery, two Detonators and other materials, including foreign communication equipment.

On October 23, 2021, SFs recovered a cache of ammunition near Tiau Kai village in Champhai District along the India-Myanmar International Border. The recoveries included 100 live rounds, 38 Neogel Gelatin sticks and 251 detonators.

On September 9, 2021, SFs recovered one rifle along with one live round of ammunition from the Chhungte area of Champhai District.

For the sixth consecutive year, Mizoram did not record a single insurgency-related fatality, yet incidents of recoveries of weapons and explosives increased considerably. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), eight incidents of such recoveries were reported in the state in 2021, as against two in 2020. The number of such incidents in 2021 is the highest recorded in a year, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the Northeast. The previous high of seven such incidents was recorded in 2015.

The upsurge in recoveries was due to increased vigilance by Security Forces (SFs) after the February 1, 2021, coup d'état by Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) in Myanmar. On October 18, 2021, the Director General of Assam Rifles, Lieutenant General P. C. Nair urged all commanders in the Northeast to be "ever vigilant in view of the volatile and dynamic environment," alluding to the potential threats emanating from coup-hit Myanmar. Significantly, nine out of the total 10 incidents of recovery in 2021 were reported from districts which share borders with Myanmar.

Further, 16 persons were arrested in 2021, as against six in 2020. The total number of arrests in 2021 is the highest in a year since 2014, when 19 persons were arrested. 10 of the 16 arrests made in 2021 were during incidents of recovery. 

Clearly, the potential for terrorist violence has increased in recent years in Mizoram, though this may largely be the result of the fact that the State has long been used for transit by armed groups from neighbouring states, exploiting areas along/across the unfenced India-Myanmar international border in Mizoram. This region has been used as a safe haven and a transit in the past, but was secured in 2019 after two phases of Operation Sunrise during that year. However, the situation started to deteriorate after the coup in Myanmar, and the subsequent revolt by citizens as well as the armed ethnic factions who dominate Myanmar’s border areas. These factors have significantly escalated cross-border movements of militants from Myanmar into Mizoram.  

On December 14, 2021, the lone member of Rajya Sabha (Upper House of the Indian Parliament) from the State, K. Vanlalvena informed Parliament that over 15,000 Myanmar nationals had taken refuge in Mizoram following February 2021 coup, which resulted in both a humanitarian crisis and security issues in the State. The state's border is, moreover, particularly porous due to regulations permitting free movement of local populations in a 16-kilometre belt along the border. Moreover, a January 2, 2022, report quoted an unnamed Assam Rifles official as stating,

On September 15, 2021, two Myanmar nationals were arrested, for illegal possession of weapons and ammunition near Sekul river in Lawngtlai District along the India-Myanmar border. The recoveries included automatic rifles of Myanmar origin, a magazine and 26 rounds of ammunition.

Earlier, on June 11, 2021, five militants belonging to the Arakan Liberation Army (ALA) of Myanmar were arrested from the Kakichhuah village in Lawngtlai District in Mizoram. One 9 mm pistol, one revolver, 55 rounds and four live grenades was recovered from the arrested militants.

Again, on June 22, two persons were arrested along with cache of ammunition from Farkawn in Serchhip District. The recoveries included 3,900 detonators, 63 sacks of explosive substances weighing a total of 1.3 tonnes, and other materials. Investigation later confirmed that they were working for the Chin National Army (CNA), an insurgent group from Myanmar.

Significantly, the arrest of Myanmar-based ALA militants took place after a tip-off from the locals that the militants were demanding INR 300,000 from them. The locals had been responding on compassionate grounds to Myanmarese (mostly Chin) refugees, as most of them were from kindred tribes.

The Bru issue also continues to stir tension in Mizoram. On October 30, 2021, in a by poll for the Tuirial (Kolasib District of Mizoram) Assembly constituency, no Bru voters from Tripura transit camps came to cast their vote, principally because strong objections were voiced by the influential civil society organization, the Central Young Mizo Association (YMA) and the main opposition political party, the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). Both YMA and ZPM oppose any special arrangement for Bru voters in Tripura and have demanded deletion of the names from Mizoram's voters’ list of those who are ‘permanently settled’ in Tripura. Moreover, Mizoram Election Commission (EC) did not make any special provision for the Bru voters to exercise their franchise in their respective camps in Tripura.

The Brus, also referred to as Reangs, are inhabitants of Mizoram’s Mamit, Kolasib and Lunglei Districts. Due to tribal rivalry over the Mizo groups’ contention that the Brus “are not indigenous to Mizoram,” ethnic violence forced thousands of Bru to leave their homes in Mizoram. More than 30,000 were displaced from Mizoram to Tripura in 1997 following ethnic violence sparked by the killing of a forest official in Mizoram by Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF) militants on October 21, 1997. An agreement signed between the Union Government and the Mizoram Bru Refugees Displaced Forum on July 3, 2018, for the repatriation of the Bru tribals to Mizoram, is yet to be implemented.

Meanwhile, the interstate border dispute between Assam and Mizoram became one of the biggest security crises of the Northeast region in 2021. Though tensions have prevailed between the two states for long, in a major flare up, on July 26, 2021, five Assam Police personnel, including Sub Inspector Swapan Roy, as well as a civilian, were killed along the Assam-Mizoram inter-state boundary along the Kolasib District (Mizoram) and the Cachar District (Assam). Another, 50 policemen, including Superintendent of Police, Cachar, Nimbalkar Vaibhav Chandrakant, and nine civilians, were injured. On July 27, one of the injured Policeman succumbed to his injuries, taking fatalities up to six.

Again, on October 30, 2021, tensions flared up between the two states when an Indian Reserve Battalion trooper from Mizoram was arrested following an IED blast in the Hailakandi District of Assam. The blast occurred in the area just two days after the Assam Police objected to the construction of a culvert in the Kachurthal area.

Though the escalating tensions were defused after a series of talks between Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga and his Assam counterpart, Himanta Biswa Sarma, in the presence of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the problem is far from over. However, on December 6, 2021, during the meeting with Shah, the Mizoram and Assam Governments agreed to form teams involving all stakeholders to resolve the border dispute through dialogue. Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga stated that the inter-state border dispute between Mizoram and Assam is a "long-pending issue which needs more time to be solved."

Despite the fact that Mizoram has remained free of insurgency-related violence since 2015, the state continues to be disturbed by rising incidents of weapons and explosives smuggling. The state has also been burdened with thousands of refugees from Myanmar, including lawmakers and policemen, fleeing violence from the neighbouring country since the start of 2021. Violent border disputes with Assam have generated further tensions. These issues need to be urgently addressed if the hard-won peace in the state is to endure.