South Asia Terrorism Portal
Nangarhar: Hardening Frontline Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 7, 2021, three persons were killed in two separate explosions in Police District-2 (PD-2) in Jalalabad city, the provincial capital of Nangarhar.
On November 3, 2021, two persons were killed in a roadside bombing targeting a Taliban patrol in the Sah Burhan Agha area of PD-8 of Jalalabad.
On November 1, 2021, unidentified gunmen shot dead three civilians in Jalalabad city, one of whom was civil society activist Hijratullah Khogyani.
On October 29, 2021, unidentified gunmen killed a man in PD-4 of Jalalabad City.
According to partial data collected by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since August 15, 2021 (the day the Taliban took over Kabul) Nangarhar Province has recorded at least 31 violent incidents leading to 51 fatalities [23 civilians, seven Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) cadres, six Taliban and 16 Not Specified (NS)], till November 7, 2021.
No Province other than Kabul has recorded five or more violent incidents during this period. Kabul recorded 254 fatalities (206 civilians, 13 Security Force personnel, 16 militants, and 19NS) in these incidents. However, two provinces have recorded a larger number of fatalities than Nangarhar. These include Kabul (five incidents, 254 fatalities) and Kandahar (one incident, 65 fatalities).
Even in Nangarhar, the violence is more concentrated in Jalalabad. Of 31 violent incidents recorded in Nangarhar during this period, 28 have occurred in Jalalabad alone, resulting in 48 fatalities.
Moreover, violent incidents in Jalalabad are increasing. While there were no incidents that resulted in fatalities in August (after August 15), 10 incidents resulting in 14 fatalities were recorded in September. October saw 12 incidents, resulting in 23 fatalities. In November six incidents and 11 deaths have been registered.
While 14 of 31 incidents in Nangarhar have been claimed by IS-KP, it is widely believed that the remaining attacks were also carried out by IS-KP, which is making effort to take firm control over the province from where the group launched its ‘campaign’ in Afghanistan. IS-KP first raised its infamous’ black flag’ in the Achin District of Nangarhar in 2015. Since then, Nangarhar, along with neighbouring Kunar, was IS-KP’s principal area of operation until April 2017, when combined assault by US and Afghan forces almost decimated the outfit’s operational capabilities in the region. The outfit suffered further losses in November 2019, when the Taliban, on one hand, and the Afghan National Defence Forces (ANDSF) with close Air support by the United States (US), on the other, launched attacks on the outfit’s remaining bases, depleting its capabilities further. However, IS-KP was reinvigorated in June 2020 under a new leader, Shahab al-Muhajir, and launched its onslaught with a renewed vigour to regain lost ground in Nangarhar in particular, and Afghanistan at large.
The onslaught, expectedly, has intensified since the fall of the Afghan Government on August 15, 2021, as the IS-KP sees an opportunity against a weak Taliban administration in Kabul. Challenging the Taliban regime, the IS-KP seeks to strengthen its base in Nangarhar to take the fight deeper across Afghanistan.
Nangarhar Province has an area of 7,727 square kilometres and shares international boundaries with the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan from three sides. In July 2021, under a directive from IS-Central, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan was added to IS-KP, removing it from the Islamic State-Pakistan Province (IS-PP). For the Taliban, as the now de-facto ruler of Afghanistan, it is critical to control the province, to ensure Afghanistan’s security and financial interests. The lucrative border trade through the Torkham land border port in the province is an extremely important source of revenue, next only to Herat Province in the west, which shares its border with Iran.
However, finding it difficult to fight the resurgent IS-KP on ground in its stronghold area, the Taliban is resorting to disinformation. On October 31, 2021, in an interview to BBC, Dr. Bashir, Taliban’s in-charge of Intelligence in Nangarhar, noted that “the name 'Daesh' refers to Syria and Iraq" and asserted “there is no miscreant group with the name of 'Daesh' here in Afghanistan." Instead, he called the IS-KP militants as "a group of traitors who have rebelled against our Islamic government."
Interestingly, on the same day, the Taliban announced the surrender of 65 IS-KP militants in Nangarhar. A statement issued by the provincial administration in Nangarhar read,
Moreover, Taliban is using strong-armed tactics which may in fact play to the strength of IS-KP by giving it more recruits. According to BBC,
Further, the violence in Nangarhar has taken a sectarian turn, with the Taliban targeting individuals linked to the Ahl-e-Hadis sub-sect of Sunni Islam. Most of the IS-KP cadres belong to this sub-sect, while the Taliban are Hanafis. Also, according to reports, the Ahl-e-Hadis are concentrated in Nangarhar, apart from neighbouring Provinces of Kunar, Badakhshan, and Nuristan. The Ahl-e-Hadis movement is a puritanical sect of Islam that stresses monotheism and rejects classical schools of Islamic jurisprudence, calling for a return to Islamic practices of Prophet Mohamad’s time. The indiscriminate targeting of the Ahl-e-Hadis is likely to push many towards IS-KP for security. A Sweden-based researcher on radical militant groups active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Abdul Sayed, thus observed, “All this will eventually benefit Daesh because it will attract more recruits to its cause and will win broader support.”
Meanwhile, according to an October 31, 2021, report, some personnel of the erstwhile National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Afghan Special Forces, due to fear of Taliban reprisals, have joined IS-KP. Rahmatullah Nabil, a former head of NDS, who left the country shortly before the Taliban takeover, claimed that “in some areas, ISIS [IS-KP] has become very attractive” to former members of Afghan security and defense forces “who have been left behind”. “If there were a resistance, they would have joined the resistance,” he added.
Further, according to a November 3, 2021, report, a former member of the Afghan Government, Faraidoon Momand, based in Jalalabad, claimed that the worsening economic situation in the country was also driving IS-KP recruitment. According to the World Bank’s Afghanistan-Country Context, last updated on October 8, 2021, recent developments have pushed Afghanistan into economic crisis. The rapid reduction in international grant support, loss of access to offshore assets, and disruption to financial linkages are expected to lead to a major contraction of the economy, increasing poverty, and macroeconomic instability. According to the UN’s World Food Programme, one in three Afghans are hungry today, and millions of Afghans will face starvation this winter unless urgent action is taken. More than half the population – about 22.8 million people – face acute food insecurity, while 3.2 million children under five could suffer acute malnutrition,
These factors can only feed growing instability and violence and the Taliban-IS-KP face-off in Nangarhar Province can only escalate, even as it widens to afflict other provinces. A weak ‘government’ in Kabul is likely to find it difficult to face the emerging challenges in the frontline battle zone of Nangarhar, even as its own oppression, violence and incompetence drive people to desperation and to recruitment by whichever prove to be the most effective anti-Taliban forces.
Chhattisgarh: Sukma: Grinding On Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On October 20, 2021, as many as 43 Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) jan militia (people’s army) members, including nine women, who were active in the Chintagufa and Tongpal areas of Sukma, and used to assist senior leaders and arrange logistics in the southern parts of Bastar, surrendered before Superintendent of Police (SP) Sunil Sharma in Sukma District. According to the Police, all the jan militia members wanted to return to the mainstream because they were disillusioned with the Maoists’ violent ideology and were inspired by Puna Narkom (New Dawn), a campaign launched by the Sukma Police. One of the surrendered militants, identified as Podium Lakshman, a ‘militia commander’, carried a reward of INR 100,000. Significantly, SP Sunil Sharma took charge of Sukma District in July 2021, launched Puna Narkom campaign on August 9, 2021, to win the confidence of the rebels.
On September 29, 2021, 11 CPI-Maoist cadres, including two women, surrendered in Sukma District. These Maoists were active as lower-rung cadres, and all of them had warrants pending against them. "These cadres, who were active in the Naxal-infested Gadiras area, turned themselves in before the police and the security forces, expressing disappointment over the hollow Maoist ideology," SP Sunil Sharma disclosed, adding they were also influenced by the District Police's rehabilitation campaign.
On September 27, 2021, 24 CPI-Maoist cadres, including seven women, surrendered in Sukma District. They were active in the Kistaram region. One of them, Muchaki Hunga, was active as a ‘militia deputy commander’ in the Karaigudem area under Kistaram Police Station limits in the District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 84 Maoists have surrendered in Sukma District since the launch of the Puna Narkom campaign on August 9, 2021, and another eight had surrendered in June 2021. A total of 92 Maoists has surrendered in the current year thus far (data till November 7, 2021). During the corresponding period in 2020, 19 Maoists had surrendered in the District, and no further surrender was recorded in the remaining period of 2020. The number of surrenders stood at 122 in 2019, 159 in 2018, 11 in 2017, 530 in 2016, 117 in 2015, 26 in 2014, and two in 2012. No surrender was recorded in 2013.
Meanwhile, combing operations and raids have resulted in the arrest of 42 Maoists in Sukma District in the current year. During the corresponding period in 2020, 17 Maoists were arrested, while another six arrests were recorded in the remaining period of 2020. The number of arrests stood at 24 in 2019, 157 in 2018, 168 in 2017, 143 in 2016, 35 in 2015, 20 in 2014, five in 2013, and seven in 2012.
However, the Security Force (SF):Maoist kill ratio in the District favours the Maoists in the current year and stands at 3.12:1 (25 SF personnel and eight Maoists killed). Of the 25 SF personnel killed in the current year, 22 were killed in a single incident in a forest area near Jonaguda village under Konta Tehsil (revenue unit) in Sukma District on April 3, 2021. In the corresponding period of 2020, the kill ratio was 1: 1.84 in favour of the SFs (19 SF personnel and 35 Maoists killed). Through 2020, the ratio was 1: 1.71 (21 SF personnel and 36 Maoists killed). Nonetheless, the overall SF:Maoist kill ratio, since the creation of Sukma District stands at 1:1.09 (187 SF personnel and 204 Maoists Killed), in favour of the SFs.
Civilian fatalities, a crucial index of the security situation, have remained more or less the same. Four civilians have been killed in the current year as compared to five in the corresponding period of 2020. No civilian fatality was recorded in the remaining period of 2020. Notably, a high of 33 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2013 in the District, while a low of three fatalities were recorded in 2014.
In terms of overall fatalities, out of the 10 Districts recording Maoist-related fatalities in the State of Chhattisgarh in the current year, Sukma District tops the list with 37 fatalities (four civilians, 25 SF personnel and eight Maoists), followed by Dantewada with 19 fatalities (three civilians, one trooper and 15 Maoists), Narayanpur 18 (five civilians, 11 SF personnel and two Maoists), Bijapur 14 (five civilians, five SF personnel and four Maoists), Rajnandgaon four (all civilians), three each in Kanker (two SF personnel and one Maoist) and Kondagaon (one civilian and two Maoists), Bastar two (both Maoists), and one civilian fatality each in Dhamtari and Gariabandh.
On January 16, 2012, Sukma was carved out of Dantewada as a separate District, with the intention of providing momentum to developmental activities by removing all the hindrances and problems that were being experienced in this area. To bring in holistic development, Sukma was listed under the 'Aspirational Districts Programme', which focuses on five main themes – Health & Nutrition, Education, Agriculture & Water Resources, Financial Inclusion & Skill Development, and Basic Infrastructure – which have direct bearing on the quality of life and economic productivity of citizens.
Accordingly, some developmental measures have since been taken forward. Thus, according to an August 15, 2021, report, Minpa, a small village in Sukma District, cut off for over three decades, began receiving electricity. Emphasizing the importance of Minpa village, Sundarraj Pattilingam, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, noted,
On August 22, 2021, to combat Maoist the atrocities in the Sukma District, the Chhattisgarh Police formed a 'Durga Fighter' force comprising 32 female staff. The 'captain' of the 'Durga Fighters', Asha Sen, pledged to make Sukma a 'Naxal free region', asserting,
Developmental and security measures have created some confidence among the general masses to raise their voice against the Maoists. Most recently, on September 25, 2021, posters and banners demanding that the CPI-Maoist should stop killing innocent villagers by planting Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in the forests appeared in different villages in Sukma District. The posters in the name of Mazdoor Sanghatan (Labour Organisation) were found tagged to trees at Ammapenta and nearby villages under the Kistaram Police Station limits. The organisation wanted the Maoists to let the tribal children of in the villages choose their own future by going to schools and colleges. The posters indicate growing resistance among tribals against the Maoists.
However, even after almost 10 years of its formation, Sukma continues to be listed among the ‘25 Most Affected (LWE) Districts’ in eight States of the country. Sukma is also covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme that funds focused operations against the Left-Wing Extremists.
Indeed, while the Maoist threat has declined significantly in the District, it remains a risk, even as the Maoists make continuous attempts to adapt and revive their activities. Disturbingly, to trap and ambush the SFs, the Maoists have been making spike holes – a type of booby trap – containing up to 1,000 iron spikes. Most recently, on October 23, 2021, as many as 50 spike holes, planted by Maoists, were found during a search operation by SFs in the Arlampalli area under Polampalli Police Station limits in Sukma District.
Challenges thus persist. Sukma is the last surviving Maoist mainstays in the country, with much of the LWE operational strength in the District intact, despite significant security and developmental consolidation. Sukma remains the last Maoist bastion in the troubled ‘Bastar Division’ of Chhattisgarh, where the final battle remains to be fought.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia November 1-7, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Odisha
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Punjab
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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