South Asia Terrorism Portal
Taliban: Domino Effect Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On June 26, 2021, four Districts were captured by the Taliban. These Districts include Shor Tapa in Balkh Province, Chak and Sayed Abad in Maidan Wardak Province, and Rustaq in Takhar Province.
On June 25, 2021, Taliban militants took control over Dolina District in Ghor Province.
On June 24, 2021, Taliban militants captured Khost Firing and Guzargah-e-Noor Districts in Baghlan Province.
On June 24, Paktia’s Provincial Governor disclosed that nine Districts in the province had fallen to the Taliban during the preceding week – Lajmangal, Ahmad Khel, Janikhel, Dand-e-Pathan, Samkanai, Zazai Aryoub, Mirzaka, Sayed Karam and Rohani Baba.
On June 23, 2021, Taliban terrorists captured the centres of at least seven Districts in five provinces. These included Bilchiragh, Qaramqol and Gurizwan in Faryab; Charchino in Uruzgan; Tala Wa Brafak in Baghlan; Qarabagh in Ghazni and Azra in Logar.
On June 21, 2021, Taliban militants captured 11 Districts centres. These include Gul Tapa, Ali Abad and Chahardara in Kunduz Province; Baghlan-e-Markazi and Nahrain in Baghlan Province; Khamab and Qarqin in Jawzjan Province; Jaghato in Maidan Wardak Province; Sha joy in Zabul Province; Maiwand in Kandahar Province and Choora in Uruzgan Province. Janikhel, Dand-e-Pathan, Samkanai, Zazai Aryoub, Mirzaka, Sayed Karam and Rohani Baba.
On June 19, 2021, Taliban militants took 17 districts centres in eight Provinces, including Dasht-e-Qala, Darqad, Namak Aab, Chaal, Khwaja Ghar, Hazar Samuch, Yangi Qala, and Khwaja Baha-u-Din. The Taliban also took control of the Mardyan District centre in Jawzjan Province.
On June 14, 2021, Taliban militants captured the centers of Gosfandi and Sancharak Districts in Sar-e-Pul Province.
On June 13, 2021, Taliban militants captured the centres of Khan Abad District in Kunduz Province and Sayad District in Sar-e-Pul Province.
According to the Longwar Journal, Taliban captured 32 Districts centres in 17 Provinces between May 1, 2021, and June 12, 2021. These include Arghanjkhwah in Badakhshan Province; Jawand and Bala Murghab in Badghis Province; Burka in Baghlan Province; Zari in Balkh Province; Pusht Rod and Lash o Joyan in Farah Province; Dawlat Abad and Qaysar in Faryab Province; Dih Yak, Jaghatu, Rashidan and Ab Band in Ghazni Province; Shahrak, Tolak and Saghar in Ghor Province; Oba in Herat Province; Arghistan in Kandahar Province, Dawlat Shah in Laghman Province; Charkh in Logar Province; Du Ab and Mandol in Nuristan Province; Gosfandi, Sancharak, and Sozma Qala in Sar-I-Pul Province, Chora, Gizab, and Khas Uruzgan in Uruzgan Province; Nirkh and Jalriz in Maidan Wardak Province and Shinkai and Arghandab in Zabul Province.
Many of these Districts have 'fallen' due to troops abandoning them under the influence of local 'mediators' - a pattern that had been witnessed during the Taliban's expansion in the mid-1990s as well. Indeed, Taliban in its weekly comment, published on June 19, 2021, claimed,
Corroborating Taliban’s claim, Paktia Governor Haleem Fedayee stated, on June 24, that Taliban ‘infiltrators’ in the ranks of the SFs played a key role in the fall of nine districts in the Province to Taliban. Fedayee added, further, that a large number of tribal elders helped the Taliban take over the districts.
Significantly, before May 1, 2021, 73 Districts were already under Taliban control. With the latest expansion the total number of districts under Taliban control has gone up to 160, out of the total 398 Districts in Afghanistan. According to the last official data available, as on October 22, 2018, at least 50 Districts were under Taliban control/influence. The Resolute Support Mission, which was previously providing official data, stopped publishing the data since then.
Significantly, according to the US-Taliban February 29, 2020, Doha Agreement, International Forces were to be fully withdrawn by May 1, 2021. The US, however, revisited its ‘strategy’ and on April 14, 2021, announced that the withdrawal would be completed by September 11, 2021.
The Taliban, meanwhile, warned of an increase in violence. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah tweeted,
Indeed, since May 1, fighting has intensified. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Afghanistan recorded 2,560 fatalities [298 civilians, 268 Security Forces (SFs) personnel, 1965 militants, and 29 Not Specified (NS)] in the 58 days since May 1 (data till June 27, 2021). During the preceding 58-day period, Afghanistan accounted for 1,359 fatalities (144 civilians, 201 SFs personnel, 1,009 militants and five NS).
With this increased level of violence, the Taliban seeks to ensure that it gains control of the maximum possible territory in Afghanistan before the September 11 deadline, to help it establish itself on the 'throne' at Kabul. On June 16, 2021, Taliban's 'commander' in Ghazni, Misbah, asserted,
Indeed. according to a June 24, 2021 report, the US intelligence community estimated that the Afghan Government could collapse within six months of the completion of the American military withdrawal from the country.
Meanwhile, as expected, there is virtually no hope from any of the ongoing talks 'processes' as the Taliban is now least interested in talks. While the Doha talks between the Taliban and Afghan Government have almost come to a deadlock, the 'Moscow talks' have made no progress and the 'Istanbul Conference' is yet to kick-off. Summing up the current situation, Afghan Ambassador to Russia Said Tayeb Jawad stated, on June 25, 2021,
It is evident that the final battle for the Taliban has commenced on the ground, and the battle is only expected to get bloodier.
Political Volatility S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
In a big blow to Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli on June 22, 2021, the Supreme Court (SC) quashed the appointments of 20 Ministers, including 17 Cabinet Ministers and three Ministers of State, citing Article 77 (3) of the Constitution. The SC order declared,
On June 4, Prime Minister Oli had appointed 10 Cabinet Ministers and two Ministers of State. On June 10, he added another seven Cabinet Ministers and one Minister of State to his Council of Ministers.
On June 7, 2021, six individuals, including Senior Advocate Tripathi, and Advocates Raj Kumar Suwal, Shalikram Sapkota, Kanchan Krishna Neupane, Birendra Prasad Sah and Sitadevi Shrestha had filed the writs demanding that the Cabinet expansions by the Caretaker Government be quashed.
On May 21, 2021, President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolved the House of Representatives on the recommendation of the Oli Cabinet. President Bhandari also announced that mid-term elections would be held on November 12 and 19, 2021, a year ahead of schedule.
Expectedly, on May 24, 2021, 146 lawmakers filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court, demanding reinstatement of the House of Representatives. These included 61 Members of Parliament from the Nepali Congress (NC), 49 from the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre), 23 from the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist–Leninist (CPN-UML), 12 from the Upendra Yadav-Baburam Bhattarai of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and one from Rastriya Janamorcha Nepal (RJN).
Opposition parties filed as many 30 writ petitions against the President’s move, arguing that the dissolution of the House of Representatives was against the Constitution. Out of 30 writs, 19 were filed seeking an interim order on the dissolution of the House of Representatives, while 11 writ petitions were filed demanding that the writs should be heard through the Constitutional Bench.
On May 27, 2021, Supreme Court Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher Rana announced that the Constitution Bench of the Court would decide the fate of the 30 petitions against President Bidya Bhandari’s dissolution of the House of Representatives. Finally, on June 23, 2021, the Court started hearings on the writ petitions.
Significantly, the House of Representatives was first dissolved on December 20, 2020, by President Bhandari, endorsing the Oli Government’s recommendation. The President also approved the Cabinet’s recommendation for holding general elections on April 30 and May 10, 2021. Expectedly, on December 21, 2020, 11 writ petitions were filed in the Supreme Court, challenging the dissolution of the House of Representatives, even as the entire opposition came out on the streets.
In a landmark verdict on February 23, 2021, the constitutional bench of the Supreme Court reinstated the House of Representatives. The Apex Court termed Prime Minister Oli’s decision to dissolve the House of Representatives unconstitutional and invalidated all decisions related to the dissolution of the House. The Court also ordered the Government to summon a session of the House within 13 days.
On March 1, 2021, President Bidya Devi Bhandari summoned the first meeting of the House of Representatives. The President called for the commencement of the House of Representatives on the recommendation of the Government of Nepal, pursuant to Article 93 (1) of the Constitution.
The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) which had come into existence after the merger of CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre on May 17, 2018, suffered a vertical split on December 22, 2020, almost 31 months after the merger. On March 7, 2021, the Supreme Court, invalidated the merger of the two parties, even as the internal rift within CPN-UML deepened.
On May 5, 2021, CPN-Maoist Centre withdrew its support to the Oli-led Government. Expectedly, on May 10, the Oli Government failed to secure the confidence of the Parliament during a vote held in the House of Representatives. Oli even lost the support of many CPN-UML lawmakers, who were siding with Madhav Kumar Nepal. On the same day, May 10, President Bhandari invited any political party leader who could garner a majority vote in Parliament, with the support of two or more parties, to stake a claim to the post of Prime Minister as per Article 76(2) of the Constitution. Issuing a notice in the evening of May 10, President Bhandari asked any such Member of Parliament to stake a claim by 9 pm on May 13. Constitutional provisions required such a candidate to submit signatures of a majority of lawmakers belonging to two or more political parties in Parliament, to the Office of President within the stipulated time. As no one could muster the requisite support, the President reappointed Oli as Prime Minister on May 13. Again, on May 20, President Bhandari called on parties to stake claims to Government formation, according to Article 76 (5), on May 21. However, as the meeting ended in a stalemate, the Cabinet recommended dissolution of the House of Representatives.
The intra-party crisis is not only visible in the mainstream communist parties, but also in groups involved in violence. The Netra Bikram Chand aka Biplav-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) which reached a three-point agreement with the incumbent Government on March 4, 2021, has already seen divisions within the group. On May 1, 2021, CPN-Maoist-Chand split after politburo member Krishna Prasad Dhamala aka Gambhir revolted to form a new party, the Jana Samajwadi Manch-Nepal (JSM-N). Meanwhile, three months after signing the deal with the Government, in an interview with Himalaya TV broadcast on June 2, 2021, Chand declared that his party was not yet into peaceful politics:
This entire political chaos in the country started in April 2020 when differences between the two Co-chairs of the then NCP – Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal – started escalating. Since then, the environment of unease, with protests – some of them violent – failed to de-escalate.
The prolonged political problem in Nepal has not only increased political instability in the country but also has created a rising potential for escalation to violence as a result of possible action by opportunistic formations such as the Chand group.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia June 21-27, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Total (India)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Punjab
Total (Pakistan)
Total (South Asia)
Taliban infiltrators within SFs have played a key role in the fall of Districts, states Paktia Governor Haleem Fedayee: Paktia Governor Haleem Fedayee, on June 24 said that Taliban infiltrators in the ranks of the Security Forces played a key role in the fall of the Districts to Taliban. A number of tribal elders helped the Taliban take over the Districts, Fedayee added. The centers of nine Districts including Janikhel, Dand-e-Pathan, Samkanai, Zazai Aryoub, Ahmadkhel, Lazhamangal, Mirzaka, Sayed Karam and Rohani Baba have fallen to the Taliban in the past one week. Tolo News, June 25, 2021.
Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum vows to return to North Afghanistan to halt Taliban advances: Former vice president Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum on June 27 said that he will soon return to his home Province of Jawzjan in northern Afghanistan to overturn the Taliban in the northern part of the country. Marshal Dostum said that he will do this after consultation with President Ashraf Ghani and the Defense Ministry." Tolo News, June 28, 2021.
Afghan peace talks should continue unless Taliban pull out, says HCNR Head Abdullah Abdullah: Chairman of High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) of Afghanistan, Abdullah Abdullah, on June 25 stated that despite the surging attacks by Taliban, peace talks should not be aborted till pulled out by Taliban themselves. Abdullah following his and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's meeting with United States of America (U.S.A) President Joe Biden at the White House, stated that till the time Taliban moves out of peace process, long-stalled talks on a political settlement to decades of strife should be continued. Ariana News, June 27, 2021.
Militant violence in Jammu and Kashmir decreased by 50 per cent, states GOC Commander: Militant violence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has decreased by 50 per cent but there are 200 active militants operating in the Kashmir Valley, said General Officer Commanding (GOC) 15 Corps Lieutenant General DP Pandey on June 24. He said that the security situation at Handwara which used to be a hotbed of militancy is very good and area is very peaceful now with the joint efforts of security agencies and people. Daily Excelsior, June 25, 2021.
Centre limits anti-Maoist funding to 70 Districts in 10 States, says report: The Centre removed 20 Districts out of 90 Districts and one State out of 11 affected States from the coverage of Central funding under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme for conducting focused operations against the Naxalites [Left Wing Extremists (LWEs)] to contain the menace. The number of most affected Districts in terms of Naxal [Left Wing Extremism (LWE)] violence has also come down from 30 to 25. These Districts account for 85 per cent of the violence perpetrated by the Naxals. The Pioneer, June 27, 2021.
CPI-Maoist leadership identifies Damodar as successor of deceased Telangana 'state committee secretary', Haribhushan, The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) leadership has identified Yapa Narayana alias Haribhushan (deceased Telangana 'state committee secretary') successor in Damodar alias Bade Chokka Rao, who is the presently 'military commander'. Comparing the leadership styles of the departed Maoist Haribhushan and Damodar, a top Police official said, "while Haribhushan was strategically pragmatic, Damodar is handicapped by analytical thinking. The Hindu, June 25, 2021.
Centre assures fast paced delimitation and assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, says report: In the All-Party Meeting (APM) on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) called by Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi on June 24, saw the Central Government representatives committing to fast-paced process of delimitation of Legislative Assembly constituencies followed by elections leading to formation of an elected Government in J&K besides restoration of Statehood as promised in the Indian Parliament, but without any time-frame. The majority of participants have left restoration of special status of J&K to the Supreme Court where abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A has been challenged by various political parties and other organizations including the National Conference (NC). Daily Excelsior, June 25, 2021.
President appoints 20 chairs and members in constitutional bodies while case is sub judice in SC: President Bidya Devi Bhandari on June 24, appointed 20 chairs and members in 11 different constitutional commissions while case is sub judice in the Supreme Court (SC). The Constitutional Council had controversially recommended their appointments in 11 different crucial constitutional bodies including the Public Service Commission, the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority and the Election Commission on May 9. Kathmandu Post, June 25, 2021.
Pakistan will not take military action against the Taliban if the group takes over Afghanistan by force, says PM Imran Khan: Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan on June 25 said that his country will not take military action against the Taliban if the group takes over Afghanistan by force. PM Khan said that "Let me assure you, we will do everything except use military action against the Taliban," Khan replied when asked what Pakistan would do if the Taliban took over Afghanistan by force. Tolo News, June 25, 2021.
Pakistan will shut border if Taliban take over Afghanistan, says Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi: Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on June 27 that violence and lawlessness could reign in Afghanistan after the United States' withdrawal, and that Pakistan would shut its border to the country if the Taliban take control of it. Shah Mahmood Qureshi said that Pakistan has already taken in 3.5 million Afghan refugees over the years, but would not accept any more. He was speaking in a weekly media briefing held in Multan. The News, June 19, 2021.
Pakistan will continue to remain in grey list, announces FATF: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) announced on June 25, that Pakistan will continue to remain in the grey list, till it addresses the single remaining item on the original action plan agreed to in June 2018, as well as all items on a parallel action plan handed out by the FATF's regional partner, the Asia Pacific Group (APG), in 2019. FATF President Dr. Marcus Pleyer said, "Pakistan has made significant progress and it has largely addressed 26 out of 27 items on the action plan it first committed to in June 2018."
Following the FATF's decision to keep Pakistan on the "increased monitoring" list pending action on one previous item and six new anti-money laundering areas, Federal Minister for Energy, Hammad Azhar on June 25 expressed confidence that the new anti-money laundering action plan would be implemented within a year. Azhar stated that the organisation is no longer the same as it was ten years ago. He added that the FATF conducts a joint evaluation of one nation by all member countries, and reassured everyone that Pakistan is not in the same situation as it was two years ago. Dawn; Daily Times, June 26, 2021.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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