South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

AFGHANISTAN

 

   

IS-KP vs Taliban: Escalating Rivalry
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 8, 2021, at least 47 persons, including 46 Hazara Shia worshipers, were killed when a suicide bomber detonated his explosive device among worshippers in the Sayyidabad Mosque in the Khanabad Bandar area of Kunduz city, the provincial capital of Kunduz. Another 140 persons were injured in the attack. Later, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) claimed the incident and named Muhammad al-Uyghuri as the bomber. The bomber belongs to the Uygur community that traditionally inhabits the Xinjiang Province of China. The IS-KP release claimed the attack targeted both Shiites and the Taliban for their alleged willingness to expel Uyghurs to meet China’s demands.

Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the United States-based Wilson Center noted that the attack could be a harbinger of more violence, adding: “if the (IS) claim is true, China’s concerns about terrorism in Afghanistan – to which the Taliban claims to be receptive – will increase.” Most of the Uyghur militants belong to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, the outfit that has found a safe haven in the Af-Pak border region.

Pro-Islamic State media on Telegram had cautioned “Muslims in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and Pakistan” to stay away from Shia religious places and houses as there was a possibility of suicide or Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks by IS and its affiliates.

This is the first attack on the Shia community since the Taliban gained de facto control over Kabul on August 15, 2021. The international community is yet to recognize the regime legally but is engaging with the group.

Significantly, this is the seventh major attack (each resulting in three or more killings) initiated by IS-KP since the Taliban gained control of Afghanistan. The six other attacks include:

October 3, 2021: At least nine persons, including five civilians, were killed in a suicide attack outside the Eid Gah Mosque in Police District 1 of Kabul city. The attack was claimed by IS-KP and the attacker was identified as Misbah-al-Kanari. The people had come to attend the funeral of Taliban’s  Deputy Minister of Information and Culture and spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid’s mother.

October 2: At least four persons, including two civilians and two Taliban security members, were killed in a targeted attack that occurred in District 3 of Jalalabad city, the provincial center of the province.

September 27: Unidentified gunmen killed three Taliban guards at a check-post in the Chawaki District of Kunar Province.

September 22: Gunmen opened fire on a Taliban vehicle, killing two Taliban security personnel, a child, and a gas station attendant at a local gas station in Jalalabad, the provincial capital of Nangarhar.

September 18-19: At least five persons were killed and another 20 sustained injuries in a series of six blasts in Jalalabad. IS-KP claimed these six explosions through the group’s Amaq News Agency, on its Telegram channel.

August 26, 2021: An IS-KP suicide bomber killed at least 214 persons, including 200 Afghan nationals and 13 United States (US) service personnel, at Abbey Gate, Kabul Airport.

Meanwhile, the Taliban has initiated a countrywide campaign to counter the IS-KP threat. Some prominent incidents include:

October 4: 10 members of a family allegedly affiliated with IS-KP were killed in an operation by the Taliban in District 17 of Kabul city. October 1: Four Taliban security personnel were injured when a roadside bomb targeting their vehicle, planted by IS-KP, exploded in Charikar city of Parwan Province. Subsequently, Taliban security members arrested two IS-KP terrorists who revealed their hideout during questioning. Following the revelations, Taliban security persons raided the hideout killing and arresting an undisclosed number of militants. September 23: Provincial Security officials of the Taliban said that three IS-KP militants were killed in the Akhundzada area of Jalalabad city, the provincial capital of Nangahar Province. September 8: The Taliban reportedly assassinated Farooq Bengalzai, the Islamic State-Pakistan Province (ISPP)'s Balochistan emir (chief), while he was in Nimruz Province. August 15: Taliban members killed the fourth emir of IS-KP, Zia-ul-Haq aka Abu Umar Khurasani, in Pul-i-Charkhi prison in the outskirts of Kabul.

The IS-KP vs. Taliban contest is also taking an ideological turn between the Taliban followers of Hanafi jurisprudence of Islam and the Salafist IS-KP. According to Abdul Sayed of BBC Monitoring,

According to my sources, the Taliban closed around 3-dozen Salafist mosques and seminaries in 16 Afghan provinces, most in Northern Afghanistan including Kabul.

Further, three Salafi clerics, believed to be IS-KP sympathizers, were killed in September 2021. Abu Obaidullah Mutawakkil and Muhammad Nabi Muhammadi were killed in Kabul on September 5, while Mullah Ibrahim was killed in Zabul Province in early September (specific date not available). Though the Taliban publicly denied being behind any of these incidents, it did not condemn these killings.

Significantly, IS-KP suffered major losses in 2019, but had subsequently reorganized under Shahab al-Muhajir aka Sanaullah after his appointment in June 2020 by Islamic State-Central, to lead IS-KP. Al-Muhajir also heads the Al-Sadiq office of the Islamic State, which covers the “Khorasan” region, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Central Asian States. The reorganization certainly helped the group and it was able to intensify its activities.

According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)’s Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict midyear Update: 1 January to 30 June 2021, IS-KP was responsible for 439 civilian casualties (124 killed and 315 injured) during the period under review. There were 299 IS-KP linked civilian casualties (95 killed and 204 injured) in the corresponding period of 2020.

Further, many IS-KP militants fled the Pul-i-Chakri prison after the Taliban took over on August 15.

The primary objective of the recent IS-KP attacks is clearly to undermine Taliban rule, as well as to initiate a Shia-Sunni conflict in the country. The rhetoric employed by IS-KP points in this direction. On September 19, IS-KP released a video clip titled "The Taliban are supporters of the Shias." 

Meanwhile, as expected, the Taliban is trying to downplay the IS-KP threat. Zabiullah Mujahid, asserted,

We don't call Daesh [Arabic acronym for IS] a threat, but we call it a headache… It creates headaches in some places but is immediately taken out in every incident; (they) have been chased out and their sanctuaries found.

Nevertheless, reports now warn that IS-KP might have infiltrated the Taliban rank and file to undermine the group from both outside and within, and the fight between the two Islamist extremist formations appears slated for escalation. Given the loose control the Taliban currently exercises over much of Afghanistan, it is likely to find it difficult to locate and neutralize the IS-KP leadership, as it lacks precise intelligence and air support.

 

INDIA

   

Chhattisgarh: Narayanpur: Unbridled Distress
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 8, 2021, an Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) trooper was injured after Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres fired at him in Kohkameta village in Narayanpur District. Sundarraj Pattilingam, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, disclosed that the incident took place at around 3 pm [IST] when the trooper belonging to ITBP's 53^rd battalion was on duty at the mobile check post in front his unit's camp in Kohkameta village.

On September 23, 2021, CPI-Maoist cadres of the ‘Aamdai area committee’ (Maoist committee operating in Aamdai Ghati in Chhotedongar village) of the CPI-Maoist allegedly killed a supervisor and set ablaze four vehicles at a road construction site at Madhonar village in Narayanpur Tehsil (revenue sub-division) under Chhotedongar Police Station limits in Narayanpur District. Around two dozen Maoists thrashed the labourers at the construction site before setting ablaze a Joseph Cyril Bamford (JCB) machine, two tractors and two motorcycles there. The deceased supervisor, identified as Sandip Bajan, belonged to a village near the construction site. A Maoist pamphlet was found at the spot in which the Maoists have warned villagers to stay away from development activities. Under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY) scheme, an approximately 10-kilometres-long road is being laid from Chhotedongar village to Madhonar village, both in the Narayanpur District.

On August 20, 2021, two ITBP personnel, including an assistant commandant, were killed in a CPI-Maoist attack near Kademeta camp of 45^th Battalion of the ITBP under Chhotedongar Police Station limits in Narayanpur District. A squad of the ITBP's 45th battalion, which was out on an area domination operation, was fired upon by a small action team of the Maoists, when it was approximately 600 metres away from the camp in which two ITBP personnel were killed. Maoists also looted and escaped with one AK-47 rifle, two bullet-proof jackets and one wireless set of the security personnel.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least five civilians and 11 Security Force (SF) personnel have been killed in Narayanpur District thus far in 2021 (data till October 10). During the corresponding period in 2020, one civilian and one SF trooper had been killed; a total of three fatalities (one civilian and two SF personnel) were recorded through 2020. Significantly, since May 11, 2007, when Narayanpur was carved out from the erstwhile Bastar District, a total of 31 civilians and 78 SF personnel fatalities were recorded in the district. 113 Maoists have also been killed.

The number of civilians killed in the current year has jumped from one to five, highest number of civilians killed in a year since May 11, 2007 when the district was formed. Equal number of civilians were killed in 2007 and 2010 as well. Clearly, an indication of deteriorating security situation.

And it is not surprising, given the fact the number of SFs killed jumped from two in 2020 to 11 in 2021.  The SF:Maoist kill ratio of 5.5:1 in the current year favors the Maoists, for the first time since 2010, when the SF:Maoist kill ratio was recorded at 2.7:1.

Narayanpur, one of Chhattisgarh’s 32 Districts, is surrounded with dense forests, hills, streams, waterfalls, natural caves, and a forest cover of 2116.915 square kilometres which accounts for 32.87 per cent of the District’s total area of 6,640 square kilometres. Narayanpur District is divided into two administrative blocks: 1) Narayanpur, having 45 Gram Panchayats (village level local self-Government institutions) with 176 villages (172 inhabited), is spread over an area of 2760 square kilometers, and 2) Orchha, having 24 Gram Panchayats with 237 villages (209 inhabited), is spread over an area of 3880 square kilometers. Orchha comprises the Abujhmaad region, the unsurveyed zone in central India and home to Primitive Tribal Group Madia Gond and Muriya Gond. The difficult terrain and natural protection offer Narayanpur an immense ‘geo-strategic importance’ for the Maoists, and has long served as a major transit route for the rebels to cross into the Naxalite [Left Wing Extremist, LWE] affected areas of the neighbouring States, giving them safe passage to orchestrate violence on both sides of the State borders. Reportedly, Narayanpur abuts Bijapur and Dantewada Districts in the south; Bastar in the East; Kanker District in the North; and the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra in the west. Moreover, being a part of the troubled ‘Bastar Division’ of Chhattisgarh, and the large presence of Naxalite insurgents, security situation has been a major concern for people who live here.

Undeniably, a December 20, 2020, report revealed that the Maoist’s ‘liberated’ area, as of now, ranges from 3,000 to 10,000 square kilometers, mostly in the Narayanpur, Bijapur and Sukma Districts. Of these areas, around 3,000 square kilometers is totally out of the control of the Government, while the rest of the area has varying degrees of control; for example, food and medicines can go in, teachers can go in, but the forest department and Police etc. can’t.

On June 15, 2021, IGP, Bastar Range, Sundarraj Pattilingam thus disclosed;

In east Bastar region, they (the Maoists) have become almost non-existent while security forces have established complete dominance in North Bastar and Darbha valley area today by opening security camps. South Bastar, including Sukma-Bijapur districts, and west Bastar - especially Narayanpur district - are important regions for them. Abujhmaad or simply Maar area in Narayanpur is a safe hideout or shelter home for them. This is also an important source of economy and logistic support for Naxals though their activities are mainly focused in the southern part.

Sukma, Deputy Superintendent of Police, K. L. Dhruv noted,

So far, they had free run in this area… they use it for their movements from south to west Bastar, mainly towards Abujhmaad forest area in Narayanpur district bordering Maharashtra. Abujhmaad is their base station and source of livelihood for them.

Further, on September 26, 2021, an unnamed senior official, who attended the meeting of LWE-affected States held in New Delhi, commenting on the issue of "security vacuum" in the areas of Chhattisgarh bordering Gadchiroli (Maharashtra) and Gondia (Maharashtra), thus stated,

A large chunk of area in Bijapur and Narayanpur districts across Gadchiroli has virtually no police presence or government outreach. This has created a security vacuum, which has proved to be a hindrance not only in inter-state anti-Naxal operations but has also helped Naxalites chased by Maharashtra police run away to the safe haven in Chhattisgarh.

Agreeing on the security situation, another State official from the neighbouring Maharashtra, also thus said;

The Naxalites enjoy a virtual sanctuary of up to an average of 30-40 km [kilometres] depth in the Abujhmaad area of Bijapur and Narayanpur adjoining Gadchiroli. This problem is peculiar to the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border. It doesn't exist when it comes to Chhattisgarh-Odisha and Odisha-Telangana, where large deployment of security forces has been done due to the greater severity of LWE problem. The state has raised this issue at the meeting as the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border problem has remained unattended.

 

Moreover, on October 3, 2021, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel said Naxalite activities in Bastar region are now confined to Bijapur and Narayanpur.

Not surprisingly, Narayanpur, along with six other Districts (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Rajnandgaon and Sukma) of Chhattisgarh, is listed among the ‘25 Most Affected (LWE) Districts’ in eight States of the country. Further, Narayanpur is covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme for conducting focused operations against the ultras to contain the menace, along with 13 Districts (Balrampur, Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Dhamtari, Gariyaband, Kanker, Kondagaon, Mahasamund, Rajnandgaon, Sukma, Kabirdham and Mungeli) of the State.

The Maoists fighting tough battle in the rest of the country are enjoying a free run in their inaccessible stronghold areas of Abujhmaad in Narayanpur and other affected regions in Chhattisgarh. However, effective and time-bound implementation of the development projects, along with continuing SF pressure on the rebels, will certainly corrode the Maoist heartland areas and thwart their incipient design. 

47 persons killed in a suicide attack in Kunduz Province: On October 8, 2021, 47 persons, including 46 Hazara Shia worshipers were killed when an Islamic State -Khorasan Province (IS-KP) suicide bomber detonated at Sayyidabad mosque in the Khanabad Bandar area of Kunduz city, the provincial capital of Kunduz. IS-KP identified the bomber as a Uyghurs Muslim, saying the attack targeted both Shiites and the Taliban for their purported willingness to expel Uyghurs to meet demands from China. AP News, October 9, 2021.

US and IEA hold talks in Doha: The first high-level meeting after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan was held between delegations of the US and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) in the Qatari capital Doha on October 9. Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in an audio message said talks were held on relations between Kabul and Washington, the implementation of the Doha agreement, humanitarian assistance, and the release of Afghanistan's assets, among other topics. Tolo News, October 10, 2021.

IS-KP will soon be suppressed, says Deputy Minister of Information and Culture Zabiullah Mujahid: The deputy minister of information and culture, Zabiullah Mujahid, downplayed the threat of Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) saying that the group would soon be suppressed. "We don't call Daesh a threat, but we call it a headache," Mujahid said. Tolo News, October 8, 2021.

Taliban PM orders its fighters to leave private homes and report back to military bases: The Taliban on September 30 ordered their fighters to leave private homes to report back to bases. The order was issued by the Taliban Prime Minister Mohammad Hasan Akhund said that the Taliban members belonging to the militant group's Defense, Interior, and Intelligence agencies who are living in private homes need to "report back to military bases" across the country. AP News, October 7, 2021.

Islamic Emirate announces 38 new members for the caretaker cabinet in both military and civil positions: On October 4, the Islamic Emirate announced 38 new members of the caretaker government, in military and civil positions. Key appointments are Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, Political Deputy for Prime Minister; Mullah Abdul Majid, acting Minister for the Ministry of Martyrs and Disabled Affairs; Mullah Mehrullah Hemad, the commander of Kandahar Corps; Mawlawi Hamdullah, the commander of Kabul Corps; Mawlawi Attaullah Omari, the commander of Mazar Corps; Mawlawi Mohammad Zarif Mozafar, the commander of Herat Corps. Tolo News, October 6, 2021.

INDIA

 

NEPAL

SRI LANKA