South Asia Terrorism Portal
Cycles of Vengeance Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 5, unidentified gunmen killed two former Afghan National Army soldiers, a father and his son, in the Dehrawood District of Urozgan Province.
On May 1, 2022, Taliban fighters killed a former ‘commander’ of the National Security Directorate (NDS), Mohammad Asif Sultani, in the Pul-e-Rangina area in Police District (PD) 6 of Herat city, Herat Province.
April 17, 2022, Taliban fighters handed over the dead body of an ex-officer of the erstwhile Afghanistan Republic, Qasim Qaim Andarabi, to his family after his month-long detention at an unidentified location. Qaim was arrested from Kabul sometime in March 2022, after he joined the Ministry of Interior under the Taliban, on the promise of amnesty. However, after his arrest, he was tortured to death in custody.
On March 30, 2022, the dead body of a former member of the erstwhile Afghan Republic Security Forces, Hassan Qanuni, was recovered in the Injil District of Herat Province.
On March 27, 2022, Taliban fighters killed a former commander of the Public Uprising Force (PUF), Malik, in Taloqan city, the provincial capital of Takhar.
March 25, 2022, Taliban fighters tortured to death a former Afghan Republic Police Officer, Shir Mohammad, in an undisclosed location in Helmand Province.
On March 11, 2022, the Taliban abducted a former soldier, Yar Mohammad, in Sokhta village of Ferozkoh, the provincial capital of Ghor. His dead body was recovered in Dara-e-Qazi village on March 13.
According to partial data collected by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) based on news reports, at least 32 former Security Force (SF) personnel/Government officials/Public Uprising Forces (PUF) associated with the Afghan Republic have been killed since August 15, 2021 (Data till May 8, 2022). Most of the reported killings were unattributed. On August 15, 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul and completed its forcible takeover after the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani-led regime.
However, these numbers are seemingly the tip of the iceberg. A detailed seven months-long investigation by the New York Times, published on April 14, 2022, found that around 490 former Government officials or soldiers had either been killed or had been missing since the Taliban takeover on August 15, 2021. The report confirmed the killings of 86 such individuals in Baghlan Province alone, the location of many former Afghan Special Forces. 114 such individuals were missing in Kandahar Province.
Earlier, according to a January 30, 2022 report, the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted that the UN had received “credible allegations” that more than 100 former members of the Afghan Government, its security forces, and those who worked with international troops, had been killed since the Taliban took over the country on August 15, 2021. Guterres claimed that “more than two-thirds” of the victims were allegedly the result of extrajudicial killings by the Taliban or its affiliates, despite the Taliban’s announcement of ‘general amnesties.’
Indeed, the Taliban has, on several occasions, announced and reiterated the ‘general amnesty.’
On May 4, 2022, an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) member and a member of the Haqqani Network,Anas Haqqani, called on the IEA forces to respect the general amnesty which was announced by the Emir (supreme leader) of the IEA, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada. Anas Haqqani urged, “We should not disobey our (seniors) due to hatred, anger, and personal wishes. We shouldn’t break our Islamic system and undermine it and defame the name of the Islamic system.”
On January 12, 2022, the Interior Minister of the Taliban’s acting Government, Sirajuddin Haqqani, ordered SFs to “Provide security and a safe environment for Kabul residents, foreign diplomats, charity foundations, businessmen, and senior officials of the ex-regime.”
On December 29, 2021, Taliban Emir Haibatullah Akhundzada issued an 18-point decree with the first point being a call to respect general amnesty to previous Government members.
On September 21, 2021, the Taliban’s acting Defence Minister, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, in an audio message, ordered all forces to respect the general amnesty that was announced by the leadership following the takeover of Kabul. Yaqoob also asserted that no one was allowed to take revenge against anyone in Afghanistan following the amnesty announcement.
On August 17, 2021, the Taliban’s Deputy Minister of Information and Culture and spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid announced that the Taliban had offered full amnesty to Afghans who worked for the U.S. and the Western-backed Government, saying “nobody will go to their doors to ask why they helped.”
The continued killings show that either the rank and file are not fully under the command and control of authorities, or the declaration of amnesty was only intended to shape the international media perception of the Taliban as a reformed group.
Significantly, the Taliban-led offensive since the US war on terror has been devastating for the Afghan Forces. In its last phase, according to Afghanistan’s former Army Chief of Staff, General Yasin Zia, lasting from July 1, 2021, to August 15, 2021, 4,000 SF personnel were killed and another 1,000 went missing. According to Zia, around 92,000 SF personnel had been killed since 2001.
Fear and insecurity among former officials who have remained in Afghanistan is likely to be exploited by various quarters, including terrorist and armed opposition groups, to further their goals.
According to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) quarterly report released on April 30, 2022, based on the Defense Intelligence Agency's (DIA's) account,
An October 31, 2021, report in Wall Street Journal claimed that many former Afghan Special Forces had joined the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP). The report said, “Some former members of Afghanistan’s US-trained intelligence service and elite military units-now abandoned by their American patrons and hunted by the Taliban – have enlisted in the only force currently challenging the country’s new rulers: Islamic State.”
On the reports of ex-soldiers joining IS-KP, former head of the National Directorate of Security, Rahmatullah Nabil told Wall Street Journal, “In some areas, ISIS[IS-KP] has become very attractive” to former members of Afghan security and defense forces “who have been left behind… If there were a resistance, they would have joined the resistance.” NDS was Afghanistan’s intelligence agency under the Republic.
Meanwhile, Afghan National Army (ANA) Lieutenant General Sami Sadat stated on April 30, 2022, that he would "do anything and everything in our powers to make sure Afghanistan is freed from the Taliban and a democratic system is re-established/” Further, General Sadat announced, "Until we get our freedom until we get our free will, we will continue to fight… Unfortunately, every day you wake up the Taliban have had something new to do – torturing people, killing, disappearances, food shortages, child malnutrition." He mentioned that operations could begin after he returned to Afghanistan in May 2022 after the Eid festival.
Apart from physical insecurity, the economic meltdown since the Taliban takeover has generated widespread despair. According to the SIGAR quarterly report of April 30, 2022, the ‘Humanitarian Crisis Update’ quotes the State Department’s Humanitarian Information Unit’s claim, “since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, humanitarian conditions have deteriorated with over 24.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan – an increase from 18.4 million in 2021. An estimated 22.8 million people need emergency food assistance – more than doubling the March-May 2021 projections. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) increased from 670,000 in early August 2021 to 710,000 by the end of the year.” These conditions may also push some of the suffering Afghans to the other side, as evidenced in several instances of recruitment to the IS-KP, based on monetary gain.
Recently, on May 3, 2022, Ali Maisam Nazary, the head of foreign relations for the NRF, told Fox News,
Nazary claimed, further, that fighting had intensified in recent months and the NRF had expanded its presence from two to 12 provinces in Afghanistan. Notably, several other groups, including the Afghan Liberation Front, Afghanistan Freedom Front, Afghanistan Islamic National & Liberation Movement, Soldiers of Hazaristan, Freedom and Democracy Front, and ‘Noor Guerrillas,’ claimed attacks in the country.
The Afghan conundrum is becoming murkier, with fear and insecurity ruling over the people. The severe economic crisis and ill-treatment of former officials by the Taliban, as well as the lack of inclusive governance can only strengthen the resistance against Taliban rule, which has already been undermined by the violence unleashed by the ISKP.
Chhattisgarh: Bastar Division: Declining Ferocity Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 4, 2022, a District Reserve Guards (DRG) head constable identified as Salik Ram Markam (37) was killed during an encounter with Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in Tulargufa Forest area in Mungeri region under Chhotedonger Police Station limits in Narayanpur District.
On the same day of May 4, 2022, a 25-year-old villager identified as Satyam Pulse was stabbed to death by CPI-Maoist cadres in Bijapur District. According to an unnamed Police official from the Modakpal Police Station, the Maoists had abducted two persons from Guddipal village under Usoor Block (administrative division) in the evening of May 3 and later killed one of them after holding a 'Jan Adalat' (People's/ Kangaroo Court organized by the Maoists). The deceased was identified as Satyam Pulse. The other villager, identified as Bhima, was released.
On May 1, 2022, CPI-Maoist cadres killed a village Kotwar (village Chowkidar/ watchman) identified as Lakhma Markam with a sharp-edged weapon in Gudse village under Katekalyan Police Station limits in Dantewada District. Lakhma of Gudse village in Kalarpara, was working outside his house on May 1 when he suddenly went missing. The family assumed he had gone to the forest, but his body was recovered in the morning of May 2 near the village. The pattern of the killing suggests that it was carried out by the Maoists, Police said, adding that, as the village 'Kotwar,' Markam was involved in developmental activities in the village. He had earlier been warned by the Maoists to desist from such activities.
These are the most recent Maoist-related incidents of killing in the Bastar Division, which comprises of seven Districts – Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma – which are considered to be the ‘Final Maoist Bastion.’
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Bastar Division has accounted for at least 30 Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked fatalities (11 civilians, six SF personnel, and 13 Maoists) in the current year, thus far (data till May 8, 2022). During the corresponding period in 2021, the Division had recorded 59 fatalities (seven civilians, 38 SF personnel, and 14 Maoists). Through 2021, Maoist-linked fatalities in the Division totaled 113 (23 civilians, 45 SF personnel, and 45 Maoists).
Incidents of killing in the Division have reduced to approximately 49.15 per cent in the current year, as compared to the corresponding period in 2021, indicating a decline in the ferocity of Maoist activities. In 2021, the Bastar Division accounted for 94.95 per cent of total killings reported in Chhattisgarh, as against 94.07 per cent in 2020. Significantly, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting LWE-related violence across the country, the Bastar Division accounted for 90.90 per cent of all fatalities in the State – 3,179 out of a total of 3,497. The Division accounted for 28.87 per cent of the total of 11,009 fatalities recorded across the country since 2000.
In the interim, the lone killing that was recorded outside the Bastar Division in the current year, was on January 11, 2022, when CPI-Maoist cadres beat a young man to death, accusing him of being a ‘Police informer,’ in Kalwar village under the Madanwada Police Station limits of Rajnandgaon District.
Year
% of Fatalities
in the 'division'
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2
2022
0
Total
An analysis of the overall fatalities in the Division suggests that, following a cyclical trend, the Division has contributed 90.90 per cent (3,179) of the total fatalities (3,497) witnessed in the State, since March 6, 2000. Notably, a peak of 360 fatalities (74 civilians, 197 SF personnel, 72 Maoists, and 17 deaths remained not specified) were recorded in the Division in 2007, while a low of five fatalities (two SF personnel, and three Maoists) was registered in 2002.
According to the SATP database, SFs have already arrested 22 Maoists in 2022 (data till May 8, 2022) in the Bastar Division, in addition to 126 in 2021. 3,090 Maoists have been arrested in the Division since March 6, 2000. Moreover, at least 114 Maoist had surrendered in 2022, in addition to 326 in 2021. 3,715 Maoists have reportedly surrendered in the Division since March 6, 2000. The total number of arrests in the State is 3,369 since March 6, 2000, as against 3,871 surrendered.
On June 19, 2021, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) included six Districts of the Bastar Division – Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur and Sukma – in its list of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from eight States across India. Further, the Kondagaon District in the Division – has been labeled a ‘Districts of Concern.’ All the seven Districts of the Division are among the 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across the country, to be covered under the Centre’s ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme which funds focused operations against the ultras.
Though officials involved in Counter-Insurgency (CI) operations claimed that the Maoists’ hold in the area is on the decline in Chhattisgarh, the rebels still have considerable influence in some parts of the Bastar Division.
Indeed, a May 4, 2022, report, revealed that a high alert had been sounded in the LWE-affected Bastar Division following intelligence inputs from security agencies, with Chhattisgarh topping a list of five States where Maoists were currently running a massive effort as part of a 'Tactical Counter Offensive Campaign (TCOC)' from March 2022 till the end of June. Sundarraj Pattilingam, Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, thus observed, on the same day,
TCOC is a country-wide phenomenon during which the Maoists plan and launch tactical attacks on SFs, to make their presence felt amongst the local population. An unnamed Police officer involved in CI operation thus noted,
Meanwhile, a May 4, 2022, report disclosed that the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) had opened 20 new security camps in LWE-affected States across the country in the preceding six months, of which eight such camps had been operationalized in Chhattisgarh. These camps or Forward Operating Bases (FoBs) help in launching area domination and security operations faster. Earlier, just before the SFs were ambushed in the April 3, 2021, incident, when 22 SF personnel were killed in a Maoist ambush at Tarrem in Sukma District, CRPF had established 18 new security camps in Chhattisgarh's South Bastar region alone.
Nityanand Rai, Union Minister of State for Home, during his visit to the Bijapur District of the Division on May 4, 2022, thus claimed,
In a positive development to end decades of bloodshed in the LWE-affected Bastar Division, a May 6, 2022, report revealed that the CPI-Maoist's Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC) 'spokesman' Vikalp had expressed agreement to "conditional" peace talks with the Chhattisgarh Government. The development was in response to a statement by Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel who, on April 8, 2022, declared that the Government was ready to hold talks with the Maoists if they express their faith in the Constitution of India and lay down their arms. In a statement released to the media in Bhadradri Kothagudem, Telangana, on May 6, Vikalp thus stated,
Further, Vikalp also demanded that the Baghel Government withdraw SFs deployed in the forests in the Bastar Division, stop 'aerial bombing,' and release Maoist leaders lodged in different jails to take part in the peace talks.
Significantly, in this context, according to an April 23, 2022, report, the Maoists in some villages of Bijapur District, close to Chhattisgarh's border with the Telangana State, alleged a 'drone attack' by the SFs in the intervening night of April 14-15, 2022, and claimed the involvement of the Army and Air Force as well. CPI-Maoist issued three press releases in the week (April 17-23) thereafter, accusing SFs in Telangana and Chhattisgarh of resorting to "aerial attack on tribal villages."
However, according to the same April 23, 2022, report, IGP Pattilingam, rejected the allegations of 'air action', and 'aerial bombing', as alleged by the Maoists by calling it,
According to an April 27, 2022, report, there are 40,000 personnel of Paramilitary Forces deployed in the Bastar Division for anti-Naxal operations.
Earlier, a March 9, 2022, report, suggested that Chief Minister Baghel had announced the establishment of a new ‘District Strike Force’ for the Bastar Division, that would throw up promotion opportunities and better salaries to assistant constables, including erstwhile Special Police Officers (SPOs), victims of Maoist violence and surrendered rebels, who had returned to the ‘mainstream.’ Providing details of the initiative, Baghel noted that a large number of assistant constables were working in the Force but, till date, there had been no promotions and their family members had been agitating for better salaries.
The final Maoist bastion in the Bastar Division has been substantially eroded by the SFs. However, consolidating these gains and transforming them into a comprehensive political initiative to bring an end to the security threat in the region remains a major challenge for the security and political establishment. With indications that the Maoists may be edging towards negotiations – which have often been no more than a tactical ploy in the past – a wide spectrum of options does, nevertheless, open out.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia May 2-8, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
IEA's Ministry of Vice and virtue announces new rules regarding hijab for women in the country: On May 7, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA)'s Ministry of Vice and Virtue announced new rules regarding the hijab (a veil worn by Muslim women), saying it will be implemented in two steps, encouragement and punishment. The plan was confirmed by Emir (supreme leader) Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Islamic Emirate. Tolo News, May 9, 2022.
IEA ready to negotiate with US on 'external issues': Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) on May 4 said that it is ready to negotiate with the United States (US) on issues of an external nature. US suspended talks with IEA in March after it reversed a decision to allow girls to return to secondary school. Ariana News, May 6, 2022.
IEA leader, Anas Haqqani, called on the Islamic Emirate forces to respect the general amnesty announced by the IEA Emir Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada: Senior member of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), Anas Haqqani, called on the IEA forces to respect the general amnesty announced by the Emir (supreme leader) of the IEA, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada. He urged the Islamic Emirate forces to treat the citizens of the country respectfully. Tolo News May 6, 2022.
Washington has not forgotten Afghanistan but IEA needs to fulfil its commitments, says the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West: The US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West says Washington has not forgotten Afghanistan but that the Islamic Emirate (IEA) needs to fulfil its commitments in order to be recognized as the legitimate Government by the international community. Ariana News, May 3, 2022.
Maoists ready for talks, but Chhattisgarh Government says no to riders: Nearly a month after Chhattisgarh Chief Minister (CM) Bhupesh Baghel invited the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) to peace talks, the insurgents have said they are willing to sit across a table but have set stiff riders - revoke the ban on CPI-Maoist and its frontal organisations, release all jailed leaders and withdraw all Security Forces (SFs) from Bastar division. The Times of india, May 9, 2022.
Andhra Maoists boxed into just two divisions after losing ground, says Andhra Pradesh DGP: There has been a significant decline in Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in Andhra Pradesh (AP) in the last one year, both in terms of incidents and its geographical spread, according to the AP Police. The LWE-related activities in the State have largely been confined to Alluri Sitharama Raju, the new District carved out of Paderu division of Visakhapatnam District and Rampachodavaram division of East Godavari District, with the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre operating in the belt declining from 100 to 48 now, said AP, Director General of Police (DGP), K V Rajendranath Reddy. The Indian Express, May 9, 2022.
AFSPA will go the day there is no need for armed guards on roads, says Northern Command chief Lieutenant General Upendra Dwivedi: The Northern Command chief Lieutenant General Upendra Dwivedi on May 6 stated that Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in J&K will automatically go the day when there is no need for armed guards and paramilitary on roads. Daily Excelsior, May 8, 2022.
200 terrorists ready to be launched into J&K from across the border, says Northern Army commander Lieutenant General Upendra Dwivedi: Northern Army commander Lieutenant General Upendra Dwivedi on May 6 said that infiltration is drastically down, yet currently there are 200 terrorists staged across border ready to be launched into Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). He said that the number of trained terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir is dwindling with each passing as 21 foreign terrorists have been eliminated this year so far in absence of local shelter and support. Daily Excelsior, May 7, 2022.
Centre approves diversion of Forest Land for Infrastructure growth in Eight States affected by LWE: The Central Government of India has approved for diversion of forest land for the development of infrastructure in 34 Districts of eight States affected by Left-wing extremism (LWE). The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has granted its approval for infrastructure-related projects in 14 categories for the development of the areas. Interview Times, May 6, 2022.
Foreign militants coming out of hideouts to strike in Kashmir, says GoC Lieutenant General D P Pandey: Foreign militants are compelled to come out of their hideouts to conduct operations in Kashmir as the number of local militants is coming down in the valley, General Officer Commanding (GoC) of the Army's 15th Corps, Lieutenant General D P Pandey said on May 2. GoC Lieutenant General D P Pandey, also said the weapon systems, used in other parts of the world, finding their way to Kashmir is a challenge. Kashmir Observer , May 4, 2022.
Electoral alliance is the need of the country, says NC leader Poudel: Senior leader of the ruling Nepali Congress (NC) Ram Chandra Poudel said that it is the need of the nation to forge an electoral alliance. At a program organized by Nepal Trade Union, NC, Tanahu District chapter on the occasion of 133rd International Labour Day on May 1, senior leader Poudel said electoral alliance with other ruling coalition partners is needed in places where NC has relatively weaker presence. My Republica, May 2, 2022.
US to cooperate with Pakistan on counterterrorism amid mounting terrorist attacks, says US State Department spokesperson Ned Price: The United States (US) will continue cooperating with Pakistan on counterterrorism and border security, a US State Department spokesperson said on May 4. "We value our bilateral relationship. We want to continue to work together in areas where we do have mutual interests with our Pakistani partners. That includes counterterrorism. That includes border security as well", Spokesman Ned Price said. Daily Times, May 6, 2022.
President invites Opposition Leader to accept the post of Prime Minister: President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has requested the Leader of the Opposition and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) Sajith Premadasa to assume the post of Prime Minister on May 7. The President has telephoned the Leader of the Opposition on May 7 morning and asked him to assume the post of Prime Minister in the face of the current crisis in the country. Colombo Page, May 7, 2022.
Sri Lanka President declares Nationwide State of Emergency: President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has declared a Nationwide State of Emergency with effect from midnight on May 6, the President's Media Division announced. The Presidential Media Division further stated that the State of Emergency was imposed to protect the welfare of the country and to maintain essential services. The extraordinary gazette notification declaring the State of Emergency was issued by the Secretary to the President Gamini Senarath on the President's command. Colombo Page, May 7, 2022.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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