South Asia Terrorism Portal
Jammu and Kashmir: Jeopardizing Gains Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 21, 2022, a civilian was killed by terrorists outside his home at Gotpora village under Narbal Tehsil (revenue unit) in Budgam District.
On March 11, 2022, terrorists shot dead a Sarpanch (head of Panchayat, village level local-self-government institution) in the Adoora area of Kulgam District.
On March 9, 2022, one person was killed and 15 others injured when a low-intensity improvised explosive device exploded outside a court complex in Slathia Chowk of Udhampur District.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has recorded a total of nine civilian fatalities in the current year, so far (data till March 27, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2021, one civilian fatality was recorded in the State. Through 2021, J&K registered 36 fatalities in the civilian category. Significantly, after reaching an 11-year high of 86 in 2018, fatalities in this category had declined to 42 in 2019 and further down to 33 in 2020, indicating another spike in violence targeting civilians.
October 2021 alone recorded 12 civilian fatalities, equaling the previous high of 12 in a month in October 2019. Of the 12 civilians killed on October 2021, six were Hindus and one, a Sikh woman. Of the six Hindus killed, four were non-local labourers. One non-local Muslim laborer was among the 12 killed. Such attacks have continued thereafter as well. Most recently, a non-local labourer, identified as Bisujeet Kumar, was shot at and injured by militants at Circular Road in the Gangoo area, Pulwama Tehsil (revenue unit), Pulwama District, on March 21, 2022. Talking about this particular challenge, J&K Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh stated, on March 22, 2022, that targeted killings would always remain a challenge in the Union Territory as long as “there is presence of gun, militants and involvement of Pakistan.”
This marginal deterioration in the security situation with regard to the civilian population has emerged despite the fact that the Security Force (SFs) have continued to maintain their supremacy against the terrorists on the ground. While the SF:terrorist kill ratio in the current year at 1:4.8 (eight SF personnel and 39 terrorists), was 1:3.75 during the corresponding period last year (eight SF personnel and 30 terrorists). The ratio was at 1:4.2 through 2021 (45 SF personnel and 193 terrorists). It was at 1:4.14 in 2020 (56 SF personnel and 232 terrorists).
The SFs also arrested 289 terrorists in 2021, in addition to 300 in 2020. 105 terrorists have already been arrested in 2022.
According to current inputs, almost all major terrorist groups, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Hizb -ul-Mujahideen (HM) and Jaish-e-Mohmmad (JeM) are facing a leadership crisis, as most of the terrorist leaders infiltrated from across the border or recruited from among the locals have been neutralized. On December 31, 2021, DGP Dilbag Singh stated that, in 100 successful operations in 2021, SFs eliminated 182 terrorists, including 20 foreign terrorists. He also disclosed that of the 182 slain terrorists, 44 were ‘commanders.’
Moreover, as SFs further tighten the anti-infiltration grid, the number of successful infiltrations has also declined. The estimated net infiltration was at 143 in 2018, 138 in 2019, 51 in 2020 and down to 34 in 2021.
In between, following scheduled talks between the Directors General of Military Operations of India and Pakistan over hotline, a Joint Statement was issued on February 25, in which both India and Pakistan agreed to the strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease fire along the Line of Control (LoC) and all other sectors with effect from midnight, 24/25 February, 2021. Official data puts the number of cease-fire agreement (CFA) violations at 2,140 in 2018, 3,479 in 2019 and 5,133 in 2020; these came down sharply to 664 in 2021 (up to June 2021). Of 664, only six were reported after February 25, 2021. SATP has recorded just one more CFA violation (in September 2021) since then (till March 27, 2022). The absence of ceasefire violations at the border has helped SFs control infiltration further, as there is substantial evidence that CFA violations in the past were used to help cover the movement of terrorists across the border, from the Pakistani side.
Within these broad trends, the marginal surge in civilian killings, more particularly in targeted killings and attacks on non-locals and non-Muslims by the terrorists, can be seen as a desperate move to reverse the trajectory in J&K.
According to government data, overall terror incidents fell from 417 in 2018 to 229 in 2021. Incidents of stone-pelting, at 1,999 in 2019, fell steeply to 255 in 2020. Though no data for 2021 has been made available, DGP Dilbag Singh asserted that 2021 was a very successful year,
According to the SATP database, there were just two incidents of stone-pelting in 2021.
Nevertheless, concerns persist. An estimated 142 youngsters joined the terrorist ranks in the J&K in 2021, in addition to 178 in 2020 and 117 in 2019. Sources indicate that at least 208 terrorists, including 128 locals and 80 foreign terrorists from Pakistan, are currently active in J&K. Moreover, at least 350 to 400 terrorists are presently located at launchpads and training camps across the border, in Pakistan controlled Kashmir (PoK).
There is also the continuing challenges from Over Ground Workers (OGWs). On December 29, 2021, DGP Singh said, “OGW is very dangerous,” as it was “very difficult to identify them.” Similarly, Inspector General of Kashmir Police Vijay Kumar noted on March 17, 2022, "OGWs don't remain permanently so… That is a huge challenge for police. However, we have arrested 150 OGWs so far this year."
SFs have also articulated apprehensions that sophisticated weapons abandoned by the United Sates troops in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover in August 2021 "could reach Kashmir anytime," along with Afghan war veterans. Major General Ajay Chandpuria, General Officer Commanding 19 Infantry Division stationed in Baramulla District observed, on February 19, 2022,
Pakistan is also making increased use of tunnels to send militants and weapons across the LoC, as well as drones to send weapons. Indeed, DGP Singh noted, on February 26, 2022,
More urgently, however, according to a March 20, 2022, report, Pakistan is "now exploiting the religious fault lines" to keep terrorism alive in J&K. An unnamed officer was quoted as stating,
It is imperative therefore for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Union Government, which is in control of the Union Territory through its representative in the form of the Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, adopt policies and initiate action to ensure that divisive politics is kept out of the Union Territory, even as efforts to restore the democratic set-up commence at the earliest. Any activities that deepen communal fault lines can only help the ISI and the terrorists to bring back turbulence to J&K.
Nagaland: Interminable Talks Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 21, 2022, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) 'chairman' Qhehezu Tuccu alleged that the Union Government was trying to impose a "solution" which deviated from the Framework Agreement signed on August 3, 2015. Tuccu claimed,
Earlier, on March 1, 2022, NSCN-IM called Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) convener N. Kitovi Zhimomi a 'traitor' and alleged that he had 'sold out' to the Government of India (GoI). NSCN-IM's outburst came after Zhimomi's statement on February 24, 2022, where he said,
The NNPG was included in the talks with GoI on September 27, 2017, in an effort to widen the peace talks. The NNPG is a militant conglomerate that comprises of seven Naga groups: NSCN-Kitovi Neopak (NSCN-NK), NSCN-Reformation faction (NSCN-R), NSCN-Khango Konyak faction (NSCN-K2) and four factions of the Naga National Council (NNC) – Federal Government of Nagaland (FGN), NNC-Parent Body, Non-Accordist faction of NNC/National People's Government of Nagaland (NPGN/NNC-NA), and the Government Democratic Republic of Nagaland/ NNC-NA (GDRN).
NSCN-IM views Zhimoni’s position as contradictory to its (NSCN-IM’s) own stand. NSCN-IM claims to be the sole party representing the Naga political cause and refuse to dilute from its principle demands, including a separate flag and constitution. Moreover, NSCN-IM’s preeminent position in the talks process is vindicated by the fact that the Government did not sign an agreement with NNPGs in 2019, even when they were ready, as NSCN-IM opposed the move. Further, R.N. Ravi was removed from both the positions of Governor and interlocutor to appease NSCN-IM, which had demanded his removal. On August 11, 2020, NSCN-IM asserted, “The issue is now in the court of Government of India that should come out with an undertaking that Framework Agreement is still alive in its original form and to be handled by somebody other than RN Ravi.”
On September 22, 2021, R.N. Ravi officially resigned from both the positions he held. Former Intelligence Bureau Special Director A.K. Mishra replaced him as the interlocutor. Since assuming charge, Mishra has met the NSCN-IM, the Working Committee of NNGPs (top decision-making body of the group) and NSCN-NS, all in the first week of October 2021. Since then, the talks have been stuck on the issues of the separate flag and constitution demanded by NSCN-IM. Earlier, for nearly two years, NSCN-IM and R. N. Ravi had not talked. The next round of talks is scheduled for the last week of March 2022.
Meanwhile, one of the NNPG constituents – NSCN-R – itself underwent a split on November 19, 2021, with the emergence of NSCN-R-Akato Chophy, a new faction led by Akato Chophy. Later on, November 21, the NNGP’s Working Committee endorsed NSCN-R’s decision to expel its ‘vice-president’ Akato Chophy from the fold for “anti-party activities.” On November 21, NSCN-R-Akato Chophy announced that it would sever all ties with the NNPGs.
Further, the Niki Sumi faction of the NSCN (NSCN-NS) has become the third entity to enter into the talks with GoI over the Naga issue, the other two being NSCN-IM and the NNPGs. On October 7, 2021, NSCN-NS met interlocutor A. K. Mishra to proclaim its commitment to peace. The group had previously maintained that it would not raise any separate demands as this 'would create another problem.' At the same time, NSCN-NS stated that it would first hear out the people's opinion on the Framework Agreement signed by NSCM-IM and the agreement between NNPGs and GoI. It stated that only if the Naga people observe any shortcomings in these agreements, would it add demands based on the people's voice, to achieve one inclusive solution. According to the agreement between the NNPGs and GoI,
Reacting to the NSCN-NS joining the talks in a statement on July 4, 2021, the NNPGs accused the GoI of “setting a wolf among sheep” and warned that “WC (Working Committee) will be forced to respond if its integrity and commitment to peace and solution is taken as a sign of weakness.” The Working Committee of NNPGs alleges that NSCN-NS was encouraging defection of its cadres with the lure of money and rank. GoI signed a ceasefire agreement with NSCN-NS on September 8, 2021. The NNPGs oppose the NSCN-NS, despite the group’s stated position that it was not against the Framework Agreement signed by the NSCN-IM or the agreement signed by the NNPGs.
Factionalism on tribal lines between Naga groups, which was one of the major reasons behind the past failure of efforts for a peaceful outcome of the vexed Naga issue, and that caused violence, had been declining since signing of the 'Lenten Agreement' on March 28, 2014, during a two-day reconciliation meeting of three Naga militant groups – NSCN-IM, NSCN-KK (now NSCN-KN) and Naga National Council/ Federal Government of Nagaland (NNC/FGN) – at Dimapur, under the banner of the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). The signatories to the agreement agreed “in principle to form the Naga National Government (NNG).” The situation further improved after the signing of the Framework Agreement in August 2015. The presently rising differences within the constituents of the peace process might impact adversely on the security situation in the State.
Significantly, in 2021, the lone militant fatality in the State was due to a fatal clash between NSCN-NK and NSCN-NS. On October 17, 2021, NSCN-NK militants killed Atoka Kinimi, ‘additional secretary’ of the NSCN-NS, near the Khehoi designated camp in the Niuland area of Dimapur District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State registered four insurgency-linked fatalities in 2021. Apart from the lone militant fatality, three civilians were also killed. On March 22, 2021, an unidentified gunman in camouflage killed three Zeliang tribesmen – Itingwangbe Haikam, Hangyi and Asiambo – in an area located at the border between the Peren and Dimapur Districts of Nagaland. Though it is still unclear who was behind these killings, those arrested in the case include both civilians and militants from NSCN-IM and NSCN-U. Prior to this incident, the last civilian killing was reported on August 17, 2019, when the body of an unidentified non-Naga was recovered with gunshot wounds from the Zubza area of Kohima District. In fact, in six years, seven months and 24 days following the signing of the Framework Agreement, the State recorded 16 civilian killings. During the corresponding preceding period, the State had witnessed 51 civilian fatalities.
Similarly, in six years, seven months and 24 days after the signing of the accord Nagaland recorded six Security Force (SF) personnel killings. During the corresponding preceding period, there were nine SF deaths (all in 2015). The last SF death was reported on May 25, 2019, when two Assam Rifles (AR) personnel were killed and another four sustained injuries, after suspected militants ambushed an AR patrol along the Indo-Myanmar border in Mon District.
Also, in six years, seven months and 24 days after the signing of the accord Nagaland recorded 31 militant killings. During the corresponding preceding period, there were 122 militant deaths .
Despite engagement in talks the Naga groups remain active on the ground. SFs arrested 147 militants in 88 incidents in 2021, adding to 117 arrested in 59 incidents in 2020. Those arrested in 2021 included 36 from NSCN-IM, 25 from NSCN-K, 16 from NSCN-KN, 16 from NSCN-K-NS, 12 from NSCN-R, seven each from the Yung Aung faction of the NSCN-Khaplang and FGN, five from NSCN-U, four each from NSCN-K2 and NNC, three each from United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I), and Kuki Rrevolutionary Army (KRA), two each from NSCN and the Dimasa National Liberation Amry (DNLA), and one each from NSCN-NK, Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF), NNC-NA, and NNC-GDRN.
Ominously, a new spark was lit in 2021 on the issue of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), after the killing of unarmed civilians by 21 Para Special Forces of Indian Army. On December 4-5, 2021, a total of 15 civilians and one trooper were killed in an operation and reprisal following the incident at a location between the Oting and Tiru villages in the Mon District. According to Police sources, the firing incident took place when a group of labourers onboard a pick-up vehicle was on its way from Tiru village. Following ‘intelligence inputs’ about NSCN-K-YA militants in the area, SFs mistakenly fired at the vehicle, taking their occupants to be militants. On December 5, another two more civilians were killed and several others injured after locals attacked an Assam Rifles camp in Mon District Headquarters. Most of the those killed were Konyaks, the largest tribe in the State. Konyaks mostly inhabit the Mon District and the bordering areas of Myanmar.
Thereafter, the Konyak Union, a civil society body representing the tribe, declared ‘non-cooperation’ with the Indian Army till its ‘charter of demands’ was met. The demands include giving justice to the Konyak youth who were killed and removal of AFSPA. The Union demanded "total restriction on Indian military force convoy and patrol” and asserted that “the Konyak shall not withdraw its non-cooperation against Indian military forces until its charter of demand is fulfilled."
The problem of lack of ground level intelligence gathering for operations might be heightened due to such calls by influential groups.
Further, according to a January 3, 2022, report, the volatile security situation in Myanmar following the February 1, 2021 coup, there has been a redeployment of forces in Myanmar’s Naga-inhabited region by NSCN-K-YA along with other Northeast Insurgent groups [Assam-based ULFA-I and Manipur valley-based militant formations – the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Kangla Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) and the People’s Republican Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK)].
There is growing urgency to engineer convergences in the peace talks, so that an inclusive solution can be worked out. If the peace in the State falters at this juncture, uncertainties and the potential for violence can only grow.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 21-27, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Madhya Pradesh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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