South Asia Terrorism Portal
Sindh: Fragile Order Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 17, 2022, a massive protest was organised at and around the grave of Sindhi nationalist leader Ghulam Murtaza Syed in Sann Town of Jamshoro District. In the protest organised by political activists and people of Sindh to commemorate the 118th birth anniversary of Murtaza Syed, the protestors raised pro-freedom and anti-China slogans. The activists of Jeay Sindh Muttahida Mahaz (JSMM), one of the several groups leading the Sindh ‘freedom movement,’ asked the United Nations to fulfil their demand for freedom from Pakistan, and carried banners such as "United Nations – Pakistan is a terrorist state," "Sindhi Nation wants freedom of Sindhudesh" and "No China, Go China". China has moved to take control of the Karachi Coastal Comprehensive Development Zone under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor framework.
Significantly, soon after the creation of Pakistan in 1947, the demand for a separate country was raised by the people of Sindh. The movement gained momentum in 1967 due to the imposition of Urdu on the people of this region. Syed Pir Ali Muhammad Rashid provided the leadership to this movement. Later, in 1972, inspired by the Bangla language movement, there was an agitation by Sindhi language speakers to create a separate country named Sindhudesh.
Though pro-freedom rallies in Sindh have been a regular feature since 1972, they have gained momentum of late. The ‘freedom movement’ in Sindh is led by groups such as JSMM, Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM), Jeay Sindh Students' Federation (JSSF) and Sindh National Movement Party (SNMP).
The ‘freedom movement’ has also received support from armed groups operating in Sindh and Balochistan, where similar demands are being raised by the local populations. The prominent groups include Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA), Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and Baloch Republican Guards (BRG). Notably, on July 25, 2020, to counter state atrocities, Sindhi and Baloch nationalist groups decided to join hands. On that day, the Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS) – a conglomerate of four Baloch ethno-nationalist militant groups – announced an operational alliance with SRA. The four Baloch ethno-nationalist militant groups included BLA (Bashirzeb Baloch faction), BRA (Gulzar Imam faction), BLF, BRG. The common objective of creating this united front against Pakistan was declared to be the ‘liberation’ of Balochistan and Sindh.
These militant groups, to ensure the success of the ‘freedom movement’, have engaged repeatedly in violence in Sindh. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh recorded 28 fatalities (19 civilians, three Security Force, SF personnel and six militants) in 2021, as compared to 52 fatalities (21 civilians, 20 SF personnel and 11 militants) in 2020, relating to militant action. Though overall fatalities registered a 46.15 per cent decline, fatalities in the civilian category have more or less remained the same in both the years, demonstrating persistent threats to the civilian population.
Indeed, in a major incident on August 14, 2021, at least 13 persons were killed and several were injured after a mini truck exploded at Mawach Goth in Karachi City. This was the worst attack targeting civilians recorded in the Province since February 16, 2017, when at least 76 people were killed by a suicide bomber who attacked the crowded Sufi shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar in Sehwan Sharif town in Sehwan District.
Civilians remain vulnerable because the SFs, after suffering reverses on the ground in 2020 when the SF:militant kill ratio was in favour of the militants at 1.81:1, became cautious in their anti-terrorist drive. Six terrorists were killed in 2021 as against 11 in 2020. Similarly, 67 terrorists were arrested in 2021 as against 74 in 2020. The last time the SF:militant kill ratio favoured the militants was in 2010, at 2.57:1.
The Provincial capital, Karachi, meanwhile, recorded the highest fatalities in 2021, with 22 killings, followed by Sukkur, three; Khairpur, two; and one in Qambar Shahdad Kot. Sindh has a total of 29 Districts. Karachi recorded 38 fatalities in 2020.
Further, the menace of street crime persists in Karachi. According to the statistics compiled from various sources, including the Citizens-Police Liaison Committee (CPLC), during the year 2021, 15 kidnappings for ransom, 23 extortion cases, 442 homicides and two bank robberies (March and November 2021) were reported, compared to two kidnappings for ransom, 22 extortion cases, 377 homicides and one bank robbery during 2020. [Kidnappings for ransom and extortion tend to be grossly under-reported, as victims and their families come to private settlements with the perpetrators].
Meanwhile, of the 22 militancy-linked killings (19 civilians and three SF personnel) by the militants recorded in the province in 2021, two were attributable to specific groups. While the Baloch separatist BLA claimed one SF killing, the Sindhi separatist SRA claimed the killing of one non-Sindhi Politician of Punjabi ethnicity. Though no one has claimed the August 14 attack, reports suggest the involvement of SRA in the case. Omar Shahid Hamid, Deputy Inspector General of the Counter-Terrorism Department, observed that such groups were suspected because of the timing of the attack. Pakistan celebrates its independence on August 14.
In 2020, out of 21 civilian fatalities recorded in Sindh, the BLA was responsible for 10, while 11 fatalities remained unattributed. Out of 20 SF fatalities recorded in 2020, SRA was responsible for 12, and BLA for one, while seven fatalities remained unattributed.
Evidently, the ban imposed by the Federal Government on May 7, 2020, on Sindhi nationalist groups – SRA, SLA and Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz–Arisar (JSQM-A), the militant wing of JSMM – have failed to deter these groups. In addition to incidents of killing, these groups have also been found to be involved in some other prominent attacks:
May 13: SRA orchestrated an explosion on a railway track near Bhuria Road in Naushahro Feroze District. Though no causality was reported, four feet of the railway track were destroyed, due to which the movement of trains were stopped for the day. According to SRA ‘spokesman’ Sodho Sindhi, the attack targeted an “Eid Special Train” carrying Pakistani military officials from Karachi to Rawalpindi, Punjab. Sodho Sindhi declared that SRA would continue its resistance struggle against colonization and colonial projects in Sindh till independence was achieved.
November 27: SRA cadres killed a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) politician, identified as Rana Sakhawat Rajput, from Punjab in the Lalu Rain area of Qambar Shahdad Kot District. SRA ‘spokesperson’ Sodho Sindhi claimed that Rana Sakhawat Rajput was the main local facilitator for the Pakistani intelligence network in the area and that “Rajput was found involved in the abductions and martyrdoms of many Sindhi nationalist workers including Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM) worker Shaheed Abdul Waheed Lashari.” Lashari’s bullet riddle dead body was recovered from a storm-water drain in Gulshan-i-Maymar area of Karachi on November 27, 2014. Lashari, who was JSQM vice-president of Warah Tehsil in Qambar Shahdadkot District, had been ‘missing’ for the preceding 15 days.
Apart from using brutal force against organisations lending support to the ‘freedom movement’ after banning them, the government continues with its policy of enforced disappearances. According to Pakistan’s Commission of Enquiry on Enforced Disappearances (COIED), Sindh accounted for a total of 1,690 cases of missing persons between March 1, 2011 (the date of inception of the Commission) and December 31, 2021. According to the Commission, of these 1,690 persons, 1,085 were traced – 59 dead bodies, 256 in prisons, 41 in internment centre and 729 returned home. The Commission ‘deleted’ cases of another 435 missing persons, claiming that these were “closed due to not being cases of enforced disappearances, incomplete address, withdrawal by complainants, non-prosecution, etc.” Thus, according to the commission, a total of 1,520 cases were ‘disposed of’, leaving 170 cases ‘under investigation.’
On January 19, 2022, concerned over the Governments’ – both the Federal and the Provincial – approach, the Sindh High Court directed the provincial authorities to constitute an Enforced Disappearance Task Force to exclusively focus on such cases. It directed the Police to use modern technology to trace out missing persons.
There has been a significant improvement in the situation in Sindh, as compared to the three-digit fatalities each year, between 2010 and 2017. Between 2018 and 2021, fatalities have been contained within two digits, as the Islamist terror outfits earlier active in the Province have been brought under control. Violence, however, remains a quotidian fact of life, as pro-freedom insurgent groups strengthen their bases in the province. The use of disproportionate force and tactics such as enforced disappearances against these groups have only helped them gain more support among the masses, pushing up the potential for further escalation.
Bihar: Weakness amidst Gains Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 5, 2022, a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre was killed in an encounter that took place between the Security Forces (SFs) and Maoists in the Pachrukhia Hill area under the Madanpur Block of Aurangabad District. Superintendent of Police (SP) Kantesh Kumar Mishra disclosed that the Maoists triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and opened fire, targeting SFs who were on a search operation in the area. In retaliatory fire, SFs killed one Maoist. No SF casualty was reported.
This is the lone fatality recorded in the State in Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE]-linked violence in the current year, thus far (data till January 30, 2022).
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Bihar recorded 13 fatalities, including seven civilians and six Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists), in LWE-related violence in 2021. In 2020, there were a total of 15 fatalities, including 10 civilians and five Maoists.
Indeed, for the second year in a row, SFs did not suffer any loss in the State in 2021. The last SF fatality was reported on February 14, 2019, when a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) sub-inspector was killed in a landmine blast triggered by the Maoists targeting a SFs team on a combing operation in the Langurahi Forests of Gaya District. On the other hand, the SFs killed six Naxalites in 2021, as against five in 2020. Also, at least 45 Naxalites were arrested in 2021 as against 34 such arrests in 2020. At least 50 Naxalites were arrested in 2019 and 101 in 2018.
The SFs success on ground has led to improvements in the security situation. Civilian fatalities, a crucial index of security, registered a decline of 30 per cent in 2021, in comparison to 2020, from 10 to seven. This was the second lowest number of civilian fatalities recorded in a year since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting data on LWE-linked violence across the country. The previous low of four civilian fatalities was recorded in 2015. A high of 46 civilian fatalities in the State was recorded twice, in 2000 and 2010.
Other parameters of violence also registered some decline. The number of LWE-related incidents fell from 43 to 42. Two major incidents (involving three or more killings) was recorded in 2021, as against three such incidents in 2020. Two incidents of arson carried out against civilian construction companies were recorded in 2021, as against five in 2020.
Out of the State’s 38 Districts, LWE-linked fatalities in 2021 were reported from four Districts – Gaya (eight), Jamui (two), Lakhisarai (two) and Munger (one). In 2020, fatalities were recorded from five Districts – Gaya (five), West Champaran (four), Khagaria (three), Munger (two) and Lakhisarai (one). Moreover, according to SATP data for 2021, based on assessments of underground and over-ground activities of the Naxalites, four Districts – Gaya, Jamui, Lakhisarai and Munger – remained moderately affected; and seven Districts – Aurangabad, Kaimur, Nawada, Patna, Rohtas, Sitamarhi and West Champaran – were marginally affected. In 2020, five Districts – Gaya, West Champaran, Khagaria, Munger and Lakhisarai – were moderately affected; and seven Districts – Aurangabad, Bhojpur, Jamui, Muzaffarpur, Nawada, Patna and Saharsa – were marginally affected.
Significantly, 10 Districts of the State – Aurangabad, Banka, Gaya, Jamui, Kaimur, Lakhisarai, Munger, Nawada, Rohtas and West Champaran – are covered under the ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme for the conduct of focused operations against the ultras, among 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across the country, identified by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA). Moreover, three Districts – Gaya, Jamui, and Lakhisarai – are among the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from eight States across India. Aurangabad is classified as a ‘District of Concern,’ along with seven Districts from five States across India.
During his meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi on September 26, 2021, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar briefed Shah about the prevailing Maoist situation and discussed the steps that were needed to stop the Naxalite activities. He noted that, though the Naxal threat in Bihar had declined and “the situation has bettered in the State, that does not mean we relax on that.”
Indeed, problems persist. According to SATP, the number of explosions carried out by the rebels increased from one in 2020 to three in 2021. The number of attacks on civilian infrastructure increased from two in 2020 to four in 2021. The number of exchanges of fire between SFs and the Maoists increased from three in 2020 to four in 2021. The Maoists issued one bandh (shut down strike) call in protest against the killing of their cadres in 2021, while there was no such call in 2020.
Meanwhile, three incidents linked to the Tritiya Sammelan Prastuti Committee/Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TSPC/TPC), a CPI-Maoist splinter group, were recorded in 2021, as against no such incident in 2020. On May 17, armed TPC cadres attacked a stone crushing plant and set ablaze a JCB Excavator machine near the Chakand Police Station on the Gaya-Patna Highway in Gaya District. TPC cadres also resorted to aerial firing to spread panic and gave threats if the contractors failed to pay their ‘levy’ (extortion demands). At least eight TPC cadres were arrested, seven on November 21 and one on June 29, 2021.
To meet the residual challenge of Left Wing Extremism, it is necessary to have a strong Police Force. Appallingly, however, according to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, Bihar had an abysmal police-population ratio (policemen per hundred thousand populations), at 76.20, the lowest in the country, and less than half the national average of 155.78. Also, the Civil Police/Area Ratio (number of Civil Policemen per 100 square kilometers) is 35.29, below the national average of 40.58. Moreover, at least 47,099 Police posts were vacant, against a sanctioned strength of 1,38,961 – a deficit of 33.89 per cent. 25 posts of apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers were also vacant, against a sanctioned strength of 242 – a deficit of 10.33 per cent.
Bihar currently has a total of three regular Battalions of CRPF, one specialized Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) battalion and three Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) battalions, deployed for anti-Maoist operations in the State.
Moreover, the State lacks fund to meet the challenge. Indeed, on September 26, 2021, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar demanded an increase in the Centre's funding ratio under the Modernization of State Police Forces (MPF) Scheme, arguing,
Chief Minister Kumar also requested the Union Ministry of Home Affairs to reconsider Bihar's proposal to deploy one helicopter permanently in the State, to intensify anti-Maoist operations. Currently, Bihar uses the helicopter deployed in Jharkhand as and when the need arises, for surveillance, logistics and rescue operations.
The Maoists are losing their foothold in their erstwhile areas of domination in Bihar, as they are across the country. However, any lowering of the guard by the security establishment would be seen as an opportunity to regroup. It is crucial that existing lacunae in the State be addressed with urgency, and that security and developmental efforts be amplified, to consolidate the relative peace that has already been established.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 24-30, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Punjab
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Oslo meeting joint statement emphasizes the need for forming an inclusive government in Afghanistan: On January 26, Foreign Ministry of Norway released a joint statement, on the concluded talks with Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) in Oslo, emphasizing the importance of respecting the human rights, besides the need for forming an inclusive government for Afghanistan's stable and peaceful future. The statement reflected the joint view of the Representatives of Norway, France, the United Kingdom (UK), Italy, Germany and the United States (US) as well as the European Union (EU). Aamaj News, January 29, 2022.
EU, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK and US Special Representatives meet the IEA delegation led by Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Oslo: On January 24, Special representatives from the European Union (EU), France, Germany, Italy, Norway, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) met with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) delegation, led by Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqiin Oslo, Norway. On January 26, in a joint statement issued, the participants stated they recognized the steps taken to ease access for humanitarian workers, male and female. ATN News, January 28, 2022.
UN Secretary-General's Special Representative for Afghanistan Deborah Lyons expresses concern over missing women activists: On January 26, the United Nation's (UN) Secretary-General's Special Representative for Afghanistan Deborah Lyons said that "we remain extremely concerned about the fate of several women activists who were abducted from their homes and have disappeared". She also called on the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) to make an investigation into such cases. Tolo News, January 28, 2022.
IEA terms the talks with Afghan civil society members as ''constructive'': The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) termed the talks with the representatives of the Afghan civil society, held on January 23 in Oslo, the capital of Norway, as "constructive". A joint statement of the one-day summit among the Afghans issued by the IEA said that the participants "recognized" the only path for resolving the existing Afghan problems is understanding and cooperation. Tolo News, January 24, 2022.
European Parliament member asks EU to impose sanctions against RAB: European Parliament member Ivan Stefanec on January 20 asked the European Union (EU) to impose sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), saying it has been involved in numerous extrajudicial killings and disappearances. Stefanec in a letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said the human rights, freedom of speech, civil and political rights situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating. The Daily Star, January 25, 2022.
BSF arrests 221 infiltrators in 2021, says BSF IG Sushanta Kumar Nath: On January 25, Inspector General (IG) of the Border Security Force (BSF) Sushanta Kumar Nath, Tripura Frontier, stated that BSF has successfully detained a total of 221 infiltrators in 2021. IG Nath claimed that cross-border infiltration had declined in 2021 due to COVID-19 pandemic. Northeast Today, January 27, 2022.
104 to 135 militants waiting across LoC to infiltrate in Jammu and Kashmir, says BSF Kashmir frontier IG Raja Babu Singh: Inspector General (IG) of Border Security Force (BSF) Kashmir frontier Raja Babu Singh on January 24 said that though the "overall situation on Kashmir LoC [Line of Control] remained peaceful" post February 2021 ceasefire agreement, " the fresh intelligence inputs suggest that 104 to 135 militants are ready to sneak into this side". "Some guides have crossed over to the other side of LoC and their movement and their families are under constant watch of security agencies," he said. Daily Excelsior, January 25, 2022.
246 militants of two militant outfits surrender in Assam: On January 27, a total of 246 militants belonging to United Gorkha People's Organisation (UGPO) and Tiwa Liberation Army (TLA) formally surrendered before Assam Chief Minister (CM) Himanta Biswa Sarma at Srimanta Sankardev Kalakshetra in Guwahati of Kamrup Metropolitan District of Assam. Nearly 77 TLA and 169 UGPO militants surrendered and laid down arms including 277 types of arms, grenades and 720 rounds of ammunition in the ceremony. East Mojo, January 28, 2022.
Madhes Province Government orders investigation into riot orchestrated by Janamat Party during NA election in Dhanusa District: Madhes Province Government on January 26 ordered an investigation into the riot orchestrated by Janamat Party during the National Assembly (NA) election in Janakpurdham city of Dhanusa District. Provincial government Spokesperson and Finance Minister Shailendra Prasad Sah issuing a statement, directed the agency concerned to investigate the incident and take action against the guilty and make them pay compensation to the victims. The Himalayan Times, January 29, 2022.
Ruling alliance secures victory in 18 of 19 seats in NA elections: The ruling alliance secured victory in 18 of the 19 seats in the elections held for the members of National Assembly (NA) on January 26. Except for the victory of one of its members in Province 1, the main opposition party, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) lost seven seats in the remaining other Provinces. My Republica, January 20, 2022.
Local level elections will be held by mid-April 2023, says CPN-Unified Socialist Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal: Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal on January 25 said that the local level elections will be held by mid-April 2023. He said "The election will not be held in this April as the elected representatives should be allowed to complete their five-year term." Khabar Hub, January 21, 2022.
11 persons including 10 Army soldiers killed in terrorist attack in Balochistan: 10 Army soldiers were killed after terrorists attacked a security forces' check post in Kech District of Balochistan Province in the intervening night of January 25-26. A statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said "During intense exchange of fire, one terrorist was killed and several injured. While repulsing terrorists' fire raid, 10 soldiers embraced martyrdom."
Further on January 28, four people were killed and 10 others injured in a landmine blast in Mat area of Dera Bugti District. According to officials at the Levies Control Room, the victims were passing by when their vehicle drove over a landmine. Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) leader Sarfraz Bugti claimed that Baloch Republican Army terrorists were behind the attack. Daily Times, January 25-28, 2022.
Ready for negotiations with TTP, says Federal Minister of Interior Sheikh Rashid Ahmed: Federal Minister of Interior Sheikh Rashid Ahmed on January 24 said that the Government was ready to hold negotiations with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but warned that any group posing threat to country's national security will be dealt with an iron fist. Rashid said no talks were under way with any groups at the moment and added that negotiations with any outlawed group would be held within the ambit of Constitution. The Express Tribune, January 25, 2022.
TNA not averse to any discussion on Government's programme, says TNA leader R. Sampanthan: Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leader R. Sampanthan said his party was not averse to any discussion on the vision and programme of the Government presented by the President. Sampanthan said "If the discussions between the TNA and the President are to discuss only the vision and programme of the Government presented by the President, the TNA will not be deceived and will not be disappointed by participating in such a discussion." Daily News, January 25, 2022.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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