South Asia Terrorism Portal
Permanent Crisis Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
At least 57 worshippers were killed and 197 injured on March 4, 2022, when a suicide attacker detonated himself inside an Imambargah (Shia place of worship), during Friday prayers, in the Koocha Risaldar area of Peshawar, the Provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Subsequently, the death toll increased to 62 as five of the injured died on March 5.
The lone attacker who was on foot had strapped at least six kilograms of explosives and was carrying a pistol. He first killed one of the police guards and then wounded another before entering the mosque’s main hall, where he detonated the explosives attached to his body. The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) claimed the attack and identified the bomber as Julaybib al-Kabuli, an Afghan national.
The worst previous attack was recorded on July 13, 2018, when at least 149 civilians were killed and 186 were injured by a suicide bomber who blew himself up targeting a political rally of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) at Dringarh village in the Mastung District of Balochistan. According to the bomb disposal squad, up to 15 kilograms of explosive material was used in the incident. The IS-KP and the ‘Ghazi force Lal Masjid’ wing of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) separately claimed responsibility for the attack.
The July 13, 2018, attack was the worst since March 6, 2000, when South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) started compiling data on conflicts in Pakistan.
Meanwhile, according to the SATP database, overall terrorism-linked fatalities in Pakistan in 2021 increased to 663 [214 civilians, 226 Security Force (SF) personnel and 223 terrorists] from 506 (169 civilians, 178 SF personnel and 159 terrorists) in 2020, registering a 31.02 per cent rise. Overall fatalities had declined between 2015 and 2019. Year 2022 has already chalked up 230 fatalities (92 civilians, 64 SF personnel and 74 terrorists).
There were 267 incidents of killing in 2021, as compared to 193 in 2020. After declining for seven consecutive years between 2013 and 2019, incidents of killing had increased in 2020. 88 of these were major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities) in which 417 persons were killed (140 civilians, 113 SF personnel and 164 terrorists) in 2021. There were 53 major attacks (317 fatalities: 87 civilians, 114 SF personnel and 116 terrorists) in 2020. After registering a decline for five consecutive years between 2015 and 2019, the number major incidents increased in 2020.
Pakistan also recorded 110 incidents of explosion in 2021 as against 81 in 2020. Incidents of explosion had declined between 2012 and 2019.
Among the principal reasons for this spike is the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in 2020 and thereafter. After its formation in December 2007, TTP had created mayhem in Pakistan between 2008 and 2014, before the Pakistan military launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb [Sword of the Prophet] in the aftermath of the attack on Karachi Airport on June 8-9, 2014, in which at least 33 persons, including all ten attackers, were killed. As soon as the operation was launched, most TTP cadres left Pakistani territory and took shelter inside Afghanistan. Operation Zarb-e-Azb lasted till February 22, 2017. It was followed by Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord), launched by the Pakistan Army across the country on February 22, 2017. This latter operation is still ongoing. Both these operations helped the SFs keep the TTP under check. However, the Doha deal of February 29, 2020, between the United State (US) and the Taliban more or less assured the Taliban’s dominance in Afghanistan and emboldened TTP, given the close ties between the two outfits. Unsurprisingly, in July 2020, TTP ‘chief’ Noor Wali Mehsud articulated his group’s new vision of separating the ex-FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) region, which is now merged with KP, from Pakistan, through a jihadist struggle and to create a Sharia-ruled state there. TTP’s new rhetoric is consistent with the Afghan Taliban’s position of refusing to recognize the Durand Line as a legal border and opposing its fencing by Pakistan, because it has divided the Pashtun tribes.
In August 2020, TTP reabsorbed various splinter factions: the Hakimullah Mehsud Group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, and Hizb-ul-Ahrar. Further, the Saifullah Kurd faction of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), under the leadership of Khushi Muhammad; and the Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) factions of Amjad Farooqi and Ustad Ahmad Farooq, also merged with TTP. TTP’s activities gained further momentum after the Taliban took over Kabul (Afghanistan) on August 15, 2021. Though the Federal Government is currently trying to buy an improbable peace with the TTP, it is highly unlikely that the group will reciprocate to the government’s overtures.
Baloch insurgent groups have also intensified their anti-Pakistan movement, contributing to this overall spike. According to SATP data, overall fatalities in Balochistan increased from 215 in 2020 to 311 in 2021, up by 44.65 per cent. Overall fatalities were at a 15-year low of 180 in 2019.
The ‘freedom movement’ in Sindh, which of late has received support from armed groups operating in Sindh and Balochistan, is also likely to get more violent. The prominent groups in Sindh include Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) and Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA).
While other domestically oriented groups remained more or less quiescent, IS-KP continues to spread its influence and the March 4, 2022, incident testifies to this. The vacuum created due to the ‘absence’ of the TTP at the ‘centerstage’ for some time was exploited by IS-KP. Between 2015 and 2022, the group claimed/or was attributed 388 civilian killings. Indeed, on January 20, 2022, KP Police Chief Moazzam Jah Ansari asserted, “I see IS-K [IS-KP] as a bigger threat to peace and security in the province compared to the TTP in the near future.”
Moreover, there is a surge in the activities of religious radical/fundamentalist groups that are creating urgent challenges, exploiting Islamabad’s inherent weaknesses in dealing with such groups. Prominently, the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) continued with its series of violent mass protests through 2021, disrupting day-to-day peace. At least 61 persons (52 civilians and nine policemen) were killed in TLP-linked violence in 2021. The Government’s abject surrender before the group in 2021 has further emboldened both TLP and other such groups to escalate their disruptive activities. Among several demands of the TLP which the government accepted, was the approval of the proposal to revoke TLP proscription by the Prime Minister Imran Khan on November 5, 2021. On November 7, 2021, the Federal Interior Ministry issued the notification regarding revocation of the ban. Further, on November 10, the Punjab Government removed TLP chief Hafiz Saad Hussain Rizvi's name from the Fourth Schedule — a list of proscribed individuals who are suspected of terrorism or sectarian violence under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), 1997. Finally, the Government completely surrendered to TLP violence and intimidation, releasing Rizvi from the Kot Lakhpat Jail in Lahore on November 18. Hafiz Saad Hussain Rizvi, the son of TLP’s late founder Khadim Rizvi, had been under the Punjab Government’s detention since April 12, 2021, under the ATA provisions for the “maintenance of public order." He was detained for issuing a video message on April 11, 2021, mobilising TLP workers to prepare for a protest march against the Government and inciting his followers to violence.
Despite this rising graph of violence and deepening influence of the radical/fundamentalist groups, the Pakistan government continues to discriminate between ‘good terrorists and bad terrorists,’ with the deep state continuing with its export of terrorism, particularly through India-centric terrorist groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahidin (HM), among a host of lesser formations. Not surprisingly, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), during its Plenary held on March 2-4, 2022, decided to retain Pakistan in its listing of Jurisdictions Under Increased Monitoring – the ‘grey list’ – along with 22 other countries. Pakistan has been on the ‘grey list’ since June 2018.
With both the TTP and IS-KP escalating activities and consolidating strength, and the Baloch groups intensifying their anti-Pakistan movement and lending support to the insurgent ‘freedom movement’ in Sindh, violence in Pakistan is likely to escalate further. The establishment is yet to abandon its dirty game of using terrorism as a strategic tool, the country is awash with weapons, and the ambivalence of the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, ceding operational spaces to anti-Pakistan terrorist formations, can only combine to further undermine the security situation, even as strains between Islamabad and Rawalpindi place the country in a state of permanent political crisis.
Madhya Pradesh: Agenda of Expansion Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Though no Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)-linked incident has been reported during the first 63 days of the current year (data till March 6, 2022), 2021 data indicates that the security situation in the State with regard to Maoist violence deteriorated, as compared to 2020.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State recorded 14 Maoist-linked incidents in 2021 as compared seven in 2020, which was till then the highest number of such incidents recorded in a year since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE). There were five incidents in 2019. Since March 6, 2000, at least 85 incidents of arms recovery have been recorded in Madhya Pradesh.
Of the 14 incidents in 2021, three were incidents of killing, which resulted in five fatalities (three civilians and two Maoists). Of seven incidents in 2020, three were incidents of killing, which led to four fatalities (one civilian and three Maoists). Since March 6, 2000, the State has recorded a total of 24 fatalities [11 civilians, four Security Force (SF) personnel and nine Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists, LWEs).
Total fatalities recorded in 2021 are the highest in a year since March 6, 2000, when the number was the same (five fatalities: two civilians and three SF personnel).
Civilian fatalities recorded in 2021 were the highest in a year since March 6, 2000, with the previous high of two recorded thrice earlier: 2000, 2016 and 2019.
The State, however, registered the last SF fatality on September 22, 2010, when the Maoists killed a trooper of the Hawk Force (special anti-LWE force of the Madhya Pradesh Police) near Sitapala village in Balaghat District. Meanwhile, SFs killed two Maoists in 2021, including a woman. They were killed in an exchange of fire with SFs in a forest at Lalpur village under Motinala Police Station limits in Mandla District, on the intervening night of February 12 and 13.
Further, SFs arrested four Maoists in 2021, in addition to one in 2020. 71 Maoists have been arrested in the State since March 6, 2000. Though no Maoist surrendered in 2021 or in 2020, 15 Maoists have reportedly surrendered in the State since March 6, 2000 – seven in 2000, seven in 2004 and one in 2013.
Meanwhile, other parameters of violence also suggest marginal increase in Maoist activities in the State. At least four incidents of arson were reported in 2021, as against no such incident in 2020. The State has recorded a total of nine such incidents since March 6, 2000. Similarly, at least five incidents of arms recovery were reported in 2021, as against two such incidents in 2020. Since March 6, 2000, at least 22 such incidents have been recorded in the State. Likewise, at least seven incidents of recovery of posters/pamphlets/literature were recorded in 2021, as against three in 2020. Since March 6, 2000, at least 17 such incidents have been recorded in the State.
In 2021, Maoist activities were reported from two Districts – Balaghat and Mandla – which fell in the ‘moderately affected’ category. In 2020 as well, Maoist activities were reported from the same Districts, but while Balaghat fell in the ‘moderately affected’ category, Mandla was in the ‘marginally affected’ category. Of the five fatalities in 2021, Balaghat accounted for three and Mandla, two. In 2020, all four fatalities were recorded in Balaghat. Madhya Pradesh has a total of 52 Districts.
On June 19, 2021, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) identifies Balaghat as one among ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from across eight States in the country, and Mandla was classified as a ‘District of Concern,’ along with another seven Districts in five States. Moreover, three Districts – Balaghat, Dindori and Mandla – were also among the 70 districts in 10 States that are covered under the Centre’s ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme which funds focused operations against the ultras.
On September 23, 2021, Madhya Pradesh Director General of Police (DGP) V.K. Johri, noted that Mandla District has been classified under the 'District of Concern' category because of the recent movement of the Maoist 'Vistaar Dalam' (Expansion Squad) from Chhattisgarh. He, however, asserted that “the state police have taken effective measures to prevent their movement in the state, including encounters.” Talking about the Dindori District, the DGP added that it had been included in the SRE scheme because the State administration wanted to fortify the Police Stations and security set up in the district to prevent the Maoists from making any inroads. Admitting that Maoist movement along the Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh border areas was a matter of concern for the State, he asserted that the Police force was capable of handle the situation.
Meanwhile, according to a December 4, 2021, report, in a bid to combat the Maoists in an effective manner, the Madhya Pradesh Government has brought three Maoist-hit Districts – Balaghat, Dindori and Mandla – under a single administrative zone.
According to a January 19, 2022, report that the Madhya Pradesh Government is giving final touches to a plan to recruit an all-tribal anti-Naxal force in the State - the Special Protection Unit (SPU) - which, would have 500 personnel drawn exclusively from the Baiga, Gond and Kol tribal communities, living in the three LWE-affected Districts of Balaghat, Mandla and Dindori, in the State. It is learnt that the proposal is being examined by the Home Department and would soon be sent to the State Cabinet for approval. Speaking of the proposal, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Naxal Operations, of the State, Sajid Farid Shapoo, stated,
Further, according to a February 23, 2022, report, the State Government is formulating a policy for relief, rehabilitation, and surrender of Naxalites that includes a provision for a one-year parole for jailed Maoists who provide information that helps fight rebels from a particular region. There is no parole provision in the Maoist surrender policies of LWE-hit States such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra. A copy of the draft reads,
Moreover, surrendered Maoists can also be inducted into the intelligence wing of the State Police for the posts of constable, if they share some important information related to Maoists or help the Police arrest or eliminate them.
However, the Madhya Pradesh Police continues to face critical gaps in capacities and deployment. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, Madhya Pradesh had 120.02 Police personnel per 100,000 population, significantly below the inadequate national average of 155.78. More worryingly, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) was just 32.28, as against the national average of 63.63. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio were well below the sanctioned strength, at 42.49 and 79.80, respectively. Worryingly, the sanctioned strength for the States’ Police was 130,984, while just 99,496 personnel were in position, creating a deficit of 24.03 per cent. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State was 305, but just 261 officers were in position, a deficit of 14.42 per cent, considerably weakening the executive supervision of the Force.
The Madhya Pradesh Government has sought the deployment of an additional six companies of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Balaghat and Mandla Districts. Currently,one CRPF battalion is deployed for anti-Naxal Operations in the State.
The increase in overall activities of Maoists through 2021 is a worrying indicator. This is despite the killing of the ‘central committee’ member and ‘secretary’ of the CPI-Maoist ‘Maharashtra State Committee’, Deepak Teltumbde aka Jeeva, in a major assault on November 13, 2021, in the forests of Mardintola in Gyarapatti area under Korchi Tehsil (revenue unit) in Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra. Teltumbde was tasked with the expansion and strengthening of cadres in the Madhya Pradesh-Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh (MMC) zone, and his death is likely to affect Maoist growth in Madhya Pradesh. Nevertheless, the Governments (Central and State) and the security establishment would need to sustain pressure on the Maoists, as their efforts for expansion are likely to continue.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia February 28 - March 6, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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