South Asia Terrorism Portal
Sharp Regression Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Though just two weeks have passed since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul, fear among masses, as expected, has spread like wildfire across Afghanistan, forcing thousands to run towards the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, to escape a dreaded future. Unsurprisingly, the Kabul Airport and its surroundings have since become the epicenter of violence.
Several rounds of firing near and around the Kabul Airport have been reported. However, what happened on August 26, 2021, reflects the true picture of Afghanistan's impending future. In one of the deadliest ever attacks recorded in the country and deadliest ever in Kabul since 2001, an Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) suicide bomber killed at least 200 Afghan nationals and 13 United State (US) service members, including 12 Marines and a Navy medic, at Abbey Gate, Kabul Airport. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby tweeted,
While reports claimed that there were another two explosions in Central Kabul after the airport blasts, there was no official confirmation on this.
Hours after the attack the IS-KP stated that a suicide bomber of the outfit had “managed to reach a large gathering of translators and collaborators with the American army at ‘Baran Camp’ near Kabul Airport and detonated his explosive belt among them, killing about 72 people and wounding more than 143 others, including Taliban fighters.” The death toll has since risen to 214, including the suicide bomber.
Meanwhile, deeply perturbed by the loss of 13 US servicemen, the single biggest loss for American Forces in Afghanistan since August 6, 2011, when a helicopter was shot down by an armed group with a rocket-propelled grenade, killing 30 US troops and eight Afghans, US President Joe Biden, ordered retaliation. Subsequently, on August 28, referring to US Forces' reported killing of two IS-KP terrorists in a drone attack, including the "planner and facilitator" of the August 26, 2021 bombings, on August 28, Biden declared,
He did, however, express the helplessness of the US in Afghanistan, noting that "the situation on the ground continues to be extremely dangerous” and that another attack targeting the airport could be "highly likely in the next 24-36 hours." Moreover, the US State Department urged all US citizens to leave the area near the Kabul Airport because of a "specific, credible threat."
Indeed, on August 29, 2021, at least six persons, including a child, were killed in a rocket attack near Kabul Airport. Further, US Forces claimed that a US drone struck a vehicle with “multiple suicide bombers” with “a substantial amount of explosive material” on its way to Kabul Airport on August 29. The threat was consequently eliminated, according to US Central Command spokesman Bill Urban.
The IS-KP which the Afghan Government claimed had been "obliterated" subsequent to the loss of its base in Nangarhar Province in November 2019, started regaining ground after the US-Taliban deal in Doha in February 2020. Reports started emerging that disgruntled Taliban terrorists were joining the outfit.
Indeed, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan's (UNAMA's) Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict Midyear Update: 1 January to 30 June 2021 report, released on July 26, 2021, noted,
The United Nations Security Council's The situation in Afghanistan and its implications for international peace and security report, covering the period between February 12 and May 15, 2021, released on June 15, 2021, observed,
Names of the two northern provinces were not mentioned in the report.
The threat from IS-KP is very real, given the fact that there are growing ties between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the terrorist formation. Reports confirm that, since its creation, IS-KP has been controlled by six known leaders (five of these have either been killed or arrested), of which five were Pakistani nationals. The current leader of IS-KP, identified as Shabab al-Muhajir, is an Arab national, had worked for Al-Qaeda and was a mid-level commander in the Haqqani Network, which is part of the Taliban set-up. Despite Pakistan’s linkages with the Haqqani Network and the Taliban, it appears that the ISI seeks to keep IS-KP alive and strong, for leverage as the Taliban consolidates in Kabul.
Such a consolidation appears imminent, as the US has indicated its intention to go ahead with its plan to recognize the Taliban Government. On August 27, 2021, Ned Price, the US Department of State spokesperson, when asked "should the Taliban get the Afghanistan seat at the UN?" did not rule out the possibility, arguing,
Meanwhile, mixed signals continue to emerge from the Taliban, with reports of excesses and continuing acts of cruelty, even as the leadership continues to issue statements to reassure Afghans and the international community that there will be no retaliatory action against any group, and a general amnesty was announced for all who had served with the previous regime, foreign forces, as well as the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces.
Nevertheless, the abduction, torture and eventual killing of Fawad Andarabi, a local artist, who was dragged out of his home on August 27, 2021, and killed by the Taliban in Kishnabad village of Andarab in Baghlan Province, sends out a warning that the Taliban may not have changed quite as much as some imagine. Agnes Callamard, secretary-general of Amnesty International, condemned the killing, observing, “There is mounting evidence that the Taliban of 2021 is the same as the intolerant, violent, repressive Taliban of 2001… Twenty years later, nothing has changed on that front.”
Indeed, thousands have fled the country in fear. Summing up the precarious situation, Afghan lawmaker Narindra Singh Khalsa, a Sikh who was evacuated on August 28, stated, "Everything that was built in the last 20 years is finished. Everything is over."
On August 24, Michelle Bachelet, the UN human rights chief, stated that she had received credible reports of serious violations by the Taliban in Afghanistan, including “summary executions” of civilians and Afghan security forces who had surrendered.
Meanwhile, the Taliban, which swept through much of Afghanistan without resistance is now being confronted with a population that has become used to the freedoms and structures built over the past 20 years. As early as August 17, women took to the streets in Kabul to protest against the Taliban. Again, on August 19, Afghans marked the country's Independence Day in demonstrations, waving the black, red and green national flag, in protest against the Taliban's takeover of the country.
The biggest challenge to the Taliban, which is still to establish a formal 'Government', has unsurprisingly come from Panjshir, the only Province, out of 34 in Afghanistan, that has not fallen to the Taliban. Amrullah Saleh, the First Vice President of Afghanistan till August 15, has since declared himself as the acting president of Afghanistan, joining forces with Ahmad Massoud (the son of famous Afghan warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud, the most prominent leader of the resistance against the Taliban during its first regime), to lead the fight against Taliban under the banner of the National Resistance Front. Amidst Taliban claims that it had entered Panjshir, Saleh asserted on August 28,
Saleh added that the Taliban had "neither external nor internal legitimacy", and claimed that they will soon face a "deep military crisis", with other areas besides Panjshir mounting resistance against them.
Significantly, Panjshir remained out of Taliban control even during its reign in 1996-2001 and the Red Army of the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) had also failed to establish control over the Valley. Indeed, Ali Nazary, head of foreign relations for the National Resistance Front reiterated,
The situation in Afghanistan is deeply unstable, even as foreign powers jockey for influence with the new dispensation. Several countries, prominently including China, Russia, Pakistan and Turkey, have demonstrated an eagerness to do business with the Taliban. However, the group’s legitimacy, and consequent possibilities of significant flows of foreign assistance, currently remain in doubt, as much of the world waits and watches whether Taliban 2.0 is really going to prove itself different from its earlier avatar. The actions of IS-KP, however, have shown that peace remains a distant prospect, even as it is abundantly clear that, while the Taliban may have taken over most of the country, it is still far from establishing an effective administration even at Kabul. Afghanistan’s ungoverned spaces will continue to provide safe haven to terrorists of many hues for a long time to come – with or without Taliban support.
DNLA: Trouble in the Hills Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On August 26, 2021, suspected Dimasa National Liberation Army (DNLA) militants opened fire on a convoy of seven trucks laden with coal and clinkers, killing five civilians and critically injuring another, in the Rangerbeel area under Diyungmukh Police Station in the Dima Hasao District of Assam. The trucks were enroute to Lanka (Hojai District) from Umrangso (Dima Hasao District) when the incident occurred. Dima Hasao Superintendent of Police Jayant Singh disclosed, “The gunmen stopped the vehicles, fired at them, and later, set them afire. Five people were killed while one sustained injury. They are the trucks’ drivers and handymen.”
On April 23, 2020, DNLA had warned,
Despite announcing the threat over a year back, DNLA had not carried out any attack targeting coal mining prior to the August 26, 2021 incident. The outfit was, however, involved in two incidents of killing since its formation on April 15, 2019, (data till August 29, 2021), both reported in 2021. On May 19, 2021, DNLA militants killed Sanjoy Ronghang, a priest, in the Dhansiri Police outpost area of Karbi Anglong District. On January 27, DNLA militants killed two persons in a firing incident, again in the Dhansiri area.
On the other hand, DNLA lost 11 of its own cadres during this period. Most recently, in a major setback on May 23, 2021, the Assam Police and Assam Rifles, in a joint operation, killed eight DNLA militants in an encounter in the Dhansiri area. Some slain cadres were identified as Amarjeet aka Rounder, Nikhen aka Dhadkan, Balnes aka Zingdao, Pritam aka Nawa, Action Dimasa, and Joreng Dimasa aka Tamil. Two of the slain militants remain unidentified. One Assam Rifles trooper was injured in the encounter. 17 DNLA cadres have been arrested and 13 have surrendered since the formation of the group.
Indeed, after the May 23, 2021, encounter, an euphoric Chief Minister Himanta Biwa Sarma declared, "almost the entire DNLA group has been eliminated today." The Chief Minister, however, seemed to be in a hurry to gain some political mileage and had overlooked ground realities. It is pertinent to recall here that a May 23, 2021, report had quoted an unnamed Army officer noting,
This was a more accurate reflection of the ground situation.
Not surprisingly, after the May 23, 2021 setback, DNLA started making efforts to prove the point that it was not a spent force, and the August 26 attack was the culmination of this effort. Some of the DNLA-linked incidents since May 24 include:
August 19: after an exchange of fire, Police arrested three suspected DNLA militants in the Maibang area of Dima Hasao District.
August 18: Police arrested a woman Dipali Hapila, from her residence in Diyungbra in Dima Hasao District for allegedly helping DNLA in transportation.
August 15: DNLA militants opened fire to scare off alleged ‘informers’ of Security Forces at Longsab village in the Purana Maibang area under the Maibang Police Station in Dima Hasao District.
August 14-15: Unidentified militants opened fire from automatic weapons in a village under the Hathikali area in Dima Hasao District.
Interestingly, the outfit seems to have changed its focus area from Karbi Anglong to Dima Hasao District after the May 23, 2021, setback in Karbi Anglong. All the DNLA-linked incidents (including the August 26 attack) after May 23, 2021, have been reported from the Dima Hasao District.
DNLA called for a 36-hour bandh (shutdown strike, starting 5am August 14) in five Assam Districts – Karbi Anglong, Dima Hasao, Cachar, Hailakandi, and Karimganj – demanding “Hirimba Raji State [Hirimba State].” The medieval Dimasa Kingdom known as Hirimba stretched from the present Dimapur and covered parts of the then undivided Cachar and Nagaon Districts. However, when DNLA announced its formation on April 15, 2019, the stated aim articulated by its 'chairman' Naisodao Dimasa was to establish 'independent Dimasa self-rule' in areas supposedly comprising the Dimasa inhabited areas of Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao Districts only.
In the meantime, according to an August 27 report, Special Director General of Police, G. P. Singh claimed,
Reports indicate that DNLA is being supported by a section of NSCN-IM as part of a proxy force or as a 'front' in the Hill Districts of Assam. The two outfits have acted together on at least one occasion in 2020. On February 27, 2020, suspected DNLA militants opened fire at a vehicle belonging to a road construction company in the Mailoo area under Langting Police Station in Dima Hasao District. There was no casualty in the incident. Authorities believe that NSCN-IM militants were also involved.
DNLA is still a threat and the Chief Minister's celebrations were premature. Indeed, after the August 26, 2021, attack, Assam Director-General of Police (DGP) Bhaskar Jyoti Mahanta, admitted candidly,
The pressure created on DNLA will have to be sustained over time, if the group is to be eliminated. Any complacency at this juncture would be detrimental for the counter-insurgency campaign in Assam in the long run.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia August 23-29, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Total
Afghanistan
India
Assam
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
India (Left-Wing Extremism)
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Total (India)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Total (Pakistan)
Total (South Asia)
214 persons killed in deadliest ever attack in Kabul since 2001: At least 214 persons, including 200 Afghan nationals, 13 United State servicemen and the suicide bomber, were killed when the bomber attacked Kabul Airport on August 26. Later, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) via its official Amaq news agency claimed responsibility and identified the suicide bomber as Abdul Rahman al-Logari. The WSJ, The Guardian, August 27, 2021.
US to pull out troops by August 31, says President Joe Biden: United States (US) President Joe Biden told G7 leaders on August 24 that the US is on pace to complete the US pullout from Afghanistan by August 31 depending on cooperation from the Taliban. "During a meeting this morning with the G7 leaders, the President conveyed that our mission in Kabul will end based on the achievement of our objectives. He confirmed we are currently on pace to finish by August 31st," White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement. Tolo News, August 26, 2021.
Taliban to form a 12-member council to run Afghanistan, said sources close to Taliban leaders: Sources close to the Taliban leadership that the group will form a 12-member council to run the country. The sources mentioned the possible six names in the 12-member council will be of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's political deputy; Mullah Mohammad Yaqub, the son of Mullah Mohammad Omar; and Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani, Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Atn News, August 24, 2021.
'Acting President' Amrullah Saleh rules out surrender: Amrullah Saleh, who was the first Vice President of Afghanistan before Taliban's takeover and who ahs declared himself as 'acting President' asserted on August 26 that the Ahmad Massoud-led National Resistance Front is ready to negotiate about other things but it will not negotiate a surrender. "If they don't agree to these conditions and choose to take the military path, then we too are prepared," said Saleh. Atn News, August 26, 2021.
There is no existence of Taliban and militants in Bangladesh, says Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal: Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal on August 28 said that there is no existence of Taliban and militants in Bangladesh. He said, "There are many small groups in the country. But they have no capacity to create chaos. Bangladesh is a country of peace. Taliban have come to power in Afghanistan and Kabul is located far from Bangladesh. So, it has no effect in Bangladesh. The Daily Star, August 30, 2021.
Grant PRC to the Assamese people in Arunachal Pradesh, says ULFA-I 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah: United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah has asked the Arunachal Pradesh Government to grant permanent residence certificates (PRCs) to the Assamese people residing in the State for ages. Baruah, in a letter to Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, said the Assamese people had been denied their right to obtain PRCs despite living in the frontier State for generations, even before the North East Frontier Agency came into existence in 1951. The Hindu, August 28, 2021.
College students were hired for terror activities, says NIA: In the draft charges filed before a special court in Mumbai, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has said that the accused in the Elgaar Parishad-cum-Bhima-Koregaon riots case had recruited students from various universities, including the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and Tata Institute for Social Sciences (TISS) for terror activities. The NIA stated in the draft charges filed before the court of Special Judge D E Kothalikar last week, "...you accused no 1 to 10 along with the wanted accused no 17 to 22 being the active members of the banned terrorist organisation CPI (Maoists) and its frontal organisations recruited students from various universities, including Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and Tata Institute for Social Sciences (TISS) for commission of terrorist activity." The Pioneer, August 24, 2021.
Exchange of intelligence is important because of challenges in the form of terrorism both regionally and internationally, says the President Ibrahim Solih: President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on August 26 stated that exchange of intelligence is extremely important at a time where the world is facing many challenges in the form of terrorism and extremism both regionally and internationally. Sun Online, August 28, 2021.
EC asks elected representatives to decide their party by September 7: The Election Commission (EC) on August 29 notified the elected representatives in the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) to decide which party to choose by September 7. Citing that new parties CPN-Unified Socialist and Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) have been formed from the official split of CPN-UML and JSP respectively, EC has given the September 7 deadline for the lawmakers to choose the party of their interest. Khabar Hub, August 30, 2021.
CPN-Unified Socialist will join coalition Government, says CPN-Unified Socialist Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal: Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal on August 26 said that his party will join the coalition Government. In the first media conference organised by his party after getting a letter of certificate from the Election Commission (EC) of Nepal on August 25, Nepal said "Our party CPN (Unified Socialist) will cooperate with all the leftist-democratic parties. The Himalayan Times, August 27, 2021.
Afghan Taliban given list of most wanted TTP terrorists, says report: Pakistan has handed over to the Afghan Taliban a list of "most wanted terrorists" affiliated with the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from the Afghanistan as Islamabad seeks to take decisive action against the militant outfit. Besides, Afghan Taliban chief Haibatullah Akhundzada has reportedly set up a three-member commission to investigate Islamabad's complaints that the TTP was using Afghanistan to plot cross-border terrorist attacks. The Express Tribune, August 24, 2021.
TTP a matter Pakistan must take up, not Afghanistan, says Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid: Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid on August 28 said that the issue of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is one that the Pakistan Government must resolve, not Afghanistan. Mujahid's remarks came during an interview with Geo News when host Saleem Safi asked the spokesman if the Taliban will speak to the TTP to not engage in conflict with Pakistan. Geo News, August 30, 2021.
Something can happen at Afghanistan border but we are ready, says ISPR DG Major General Babar Iftikhar: Director General (DG) of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Babar Iftikhar on August 27 said that "something can happen" at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border but "we are ready" for all sorts of situations. He said that the situation on the ground in Afghanistan changed rapidly - against all expectations, in reference to the swift takeover of the country by Taliban on August 15. Geo News, August 28, 2021.
Easter Sunday attacks was not an isolated criminal activity, says IGP C. D. Wickramaratne: The series of bomb attacks on Easter Sunday in 2019 was not an isolated criminal activity orchestrated by Zahran Hashim and his group within a short period of time, Inspector-General of Police (IGP) C. D. Wickramaratne said on August 25. The IGP further stated that several events that led up to the carnage, including the time bomb attack on a house in Kattankudy, murder of two constables on duty at Vavunativu roadblock, Buddhist status vandalism in Mawanella and recovery of explosives from Wanathawilluwa, indicate that it was pre-planned. Adaderana News, August 26, 2021.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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