South Asia Terrorism Portal
Punjab: Challenges to Peace Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On April 15, 2022, Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), issued a letter - 'Haryana Banega Khalistan' (Haryana will become Khalistan) - and threatened to raise ‘Khalistani’ flags at the office of the District Collector in the Ambala District of Haryana on April 29, 2022. SFJ posters on roads near Ambala urged the people to join the group on April 29. SFJ also released a ‘map of Khalistan,’ which included Haryana.
On March 12, SFJ offered USD 100,000 to any person who “shows the shoe” and disrupts the oath taking ceremony of the then Punjab Chief Minister designate, Bhagwant Mann, who was take his oath of office on March 16. SFJ alleged that Mann has disrespected Sikh tenets by bowing down with his turban and touching the feet of Aam Aadmi Party National President and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. The outfit has been trying constantly to discredit the newly formed State Government.
On March 8, the SFJ asked ‘Sikh Soldiers in the Indian Army’ to desert and join the ‘Sikh Regiment for Khalistan’ to “Defend Ukraine and Liberate Punjab.”
It is useful to recall here that SFJ, which was formed in 2007, has been trying to make inroads into Punjab in particular, and India at large, since August 2018, when the group came into prominence after its August 12 ‘London Declaration,’ where it called for a ‘Referendum 2020’ for Khalistan. Despite an incessant campaign on social media and announcements of increasing monetary incentives, the group has failed to secure a visible presence in Punjab, as necessary action has been taken by enforcement authorities from time to time.
Most recently, on February 22, 2022, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting took down several mobile applications, social media accounts and websites of the UK-based news outlet Punjab Politics TV, for its links with SFJ, after reviewing “intelligence inputs that the channel was attempting to use online media to disturb public order during the ongoing State Assembly elections”. The Ministry’s statement read,
The statement added that the contents of the blocked apps, website, and social media accounts had the “potential to incite communal disharmony and separatism”, and that
On the other hand, prominent Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)-backed Khalistani terrorist groups, with their leaders operating out of Pakistan and abroad, persist in their efforts to revive the ‘movement’. Several terrorist modules have been detected and neutralized by the Security Forces (SFs) in the recent past. According to available data, at least 50 terrorist modules have been exposed and deactivated inside Punjab since 2019, including three in 2022 (data till April 17).
Most recently, on February 19, 2022, four pro-Khalistan terrorists Sagar alias Binny, Sunil alias Pehlwan, Jatin and Surendra alias Sonu, were arrested from Sonepat, Haryana. Police recovered one AK-47, five foreign pistols, 56 live cartridges, and some forged documents from their possession. The probe has so far revealed that they were connected with the main leaders of the Khalistan Tiger Force, the International Sikh Youth Federation – Gurjant Singh alias Janta in Australia and Arshdeep Singh Dala and Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, and Lakhbeer Singh Rode in Pakistan – through social media. It is believed that the arrestees were provided illegal weapons and money by these terrorists.
Moreover, at least 92 Khalistani terrorists have been arrested in Punjab since 2019, including 13 in 2022. SFs continued to recover arms and ammunition from terrorists and to uncover weapons’ caches. Since 2019, at least 38 incidents of arms recoveries, including eight in the current year, have been reported.
Meanwhile, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has been assigned 16 cases related to Khalistani terrorism since 2019, including one in 2022. The NIA has so far charge-sheeted 48 persons in these cases, including 11 in 2022. On March 15, 2022, NIA filed chargesheets against six accused – Sukhwinder Singh, Parveen Singh, Gurpreet Singh aka Gora, Ranjit Singh aka Gora, all from Punjab, India; as well as Habib Khan, a Pakistani National and Lakhbir Singh Rode, based in Pakistan – in a case that pertains to a bomb explosion in the Jalalabad town of Fazilka District, Punjab, on September 15, 2021. One person was killed in the blast.
Indeed, the actions taken by the SFs on the ground and the vigilance of the security entablement in monitoring cyberspace have prevented the ISI-backed Khalistani elements from making any significant gains.
Since 2017, the state has recorded 18 fatalities (11 civilians and seven terrorists). There were two fatalities (one civilian and a militant) in 2021, three fatalities (one civilian and two militants) in 2020, two fatalities (both militants) in 2019, three fatalities (all civilians) in 2018 and eight fatalities (six civilians and two terrorists) in 2017. Remarkably, 2016 alone recorded 25 fatalities (four civilians, seven SF personals and 14 terrorists). There had been no Khalistani terrorism-linked fatalities in the preceding eight years (2008-2015).
Sources indicate that at least 72 incidents of seizures of ‘composite consignments’ [weapons/drugs/Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN)] were reported from the border districts of Amritsar, Ferozepur and Gurdaspur between 2009 and 2019. The recoveries included drugs such as of heroin, opium, etc.; and weapons and ammunition including AK-47/56 rifles, pistols, and RDX. The ISI uses the services of a common network of ‘drug smugglers/couriers’ to push in composite consignments into Indian Punjab from Pakistan, exploiting gaps along the land and riverine border. The ‘drug smugglers/couriers’ working under the ISI’s aegis also throw the consignment over the border fence in areas where infiltration is not suspected. Their Indian partners later collect the goods. Khalistani groups in Pakistan and their sympathisers on the Indian side are intimately connected with the drug/weapons smuggling activity.
With increasing vigilance along the International Border, Pakistan has, since August 2019, started using drones to send transport such consignments. Indeed, the Punjab Government informed a Parliamentary Committee on Home Affairs that drones had been sighted near the Pakistan border over 133 times in the last two years. The total length of Punjab’s border with Pakistan is 553 kilometers. The report, Police Training, Modernisation and Police Reforms, by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs, tabled in the Rajya Sabha on February 10, 2022, observed,
According to reports, of the 100-odd drone sightings reported by the Border Security Force (BSF) in 2021, as many as 67 have been on the Punjab Frontier. In 62 incidents where enemy drones operating in the vicinity of the border were fired upon by BSF personnel, 43 were along the Punjab Frontier. BSF data also showed there were 58 detected incidents of drones crossing over into Indian territory, out of which 45 were in Punjab alone.
Indeed, on April 9, 2022, during a meeting in Fazilka regarding security issues in the border district, Punjab Governor Banwarilal Purohit called upon the people to be the eyes and ears of the BSF. Stating that the SFs are doing their part, but that local inputs and support could go a long way in checking the influx of contraband weapons and drugs into the State, Governor Purohit, noted,
Governor Purohit, further said that the drugs crossing over from the borders percolate into the cities, towns, schools and colleges, and thus,
Despite fitful successes, little of the ‘support’ the Khalistanis secure on Indian soil is ideologically motivated. Indeed, the February 19 arrests in Haryana of non-Sikh mercenaries who had been tasked by their foreign-based Khalistani associates to execute targeted killings, underscore the failure to mobilize support for the movement beyond the criminal fraternity.
Nevertheless, the political instability and communal volatility of the present situation in India demand extreme vigilance, particularly in view of the relentless efforts by Pakistan and by radicalized elements in the Sikh Diaspora to fund and incite violence, as well as to exploit any emerging disorders. Every possible effort by the intelligence and enforcement apparatus in Punjab must, consequently, continue to be made to counter even the most incipient challenges to peace.
Northeast: Worrying Spike Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM), in a statement, on the Naga political issue, asserted on April 14 that it “cannot be a part of the Naga National Pollical Groups (NNPGs) solution.” NSCN-IM reiterated its claim as the ‘sole upholder’ of the Naga cause, arguing that “Nagas who are working as Indian mercenaries” were “going through sleepless nights to wreck the Naga issue and destroy the Naga national identity which the Nagas have shed blood, tears and sweat for over six decades”. It claimed,
Evidently, the threat from the mother of all insurgencies in the Northeast, the Naga insurgency, still persists, as talks between the Government and Naga groups drag on, with no signs of any foreseeable resolution.
Interestingly, while signing the much-publicized Framework Agreement on August 3, 2015, with NSCN-IM, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said,
NSCN-IM had issued a statement after signing the Agreement,
Meanwhile, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Northeast has accounted for 10 fatalities (four civilians, one trooper and five terrorists) in the current year, thus far (data till April 17, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2021 as well, the region had recorded 10 fatalities (five civilians and five terrorists).
The region registered 72 fatalities through 2021, as against 27 in 2020, a more than two-and-a-half-fold increase. More worryingly, civilian fatalities recorded a four-fold increase, from five to 21; while Security Force (SF) fatalities increased from five to eight. Terrorist fatalities more than doubled as well, from 17 to 43.
Significantly, the overall tally and also, separately, fatalities in the civilian, SF and terrorist categories, were at their lowest in 2020, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the Northeast.
The sudden spike in violence is a matter of urgent concern. Indeed, overall fatalities as well as civilian fatalities were on a continuous decline since 2015. Despite the spike, however, the level of violence in 2021 remains very low as compared to the peak of 2003, when total fatalities in the region stood at 1,165.
The state-wise breakup shows that 29 of the 72 fatalities in 2021 were reported from Assam (10 civilians and 19 militants), 27 from Manipur (eight civilians, five SF personnel, and 14 militants), eight from Arunachal Pradesh (one trooper and seven militants), four from Nagaland (three civilians and one militant) and two each from Tripura (both SF personnel) and Meghalaya (both militants).
In 2020, of 27 fatalities, 10 were reported from Arunachal Pradesh (one civilian, two SF personnel, and seven militants); eight from Assam (three civilians and five militants); seven from Manipur (one civilian, three SF personnel and three militants) and two from Nagaland (both militants).
The geographical spread of violence also increased. While fatalities were reported from four States in 2020, the number increased to six States in 2021. Even in the four states which recorded fatalities in both 2020 and 2021, fatalities increased in three in 2021, as compared to 2020.
Meanwhile, according to the latest data provided by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), SFs arrested 686 insurgents in the region in 2021, in addition to 646 arrested in 2020. There were also 367 incidents of arms recovery in 2021 as compared to 466 incidents of arms recovery in 2020.
Other elements of concern have also emerged.
Though there has been no insurgency-related violence since 2015 in Mizoram, the State has been disturbed by rising incidents of weapons and explosives smuggling. The State has also been burdened with 20,000 refugees from Myanmar, including lawmakers and policemen, fleeing violence from the neighboring country since the February 1, 2021, military coup. Moreover, the unresolved Assam-Mizoram boundary issue led to violence in 2021, when at least seven persons (six policemen and one civilian) were killed in clashes between the Police forces of the two States along the interstate boundary.
The strife between the Chakmas, who are predominantly settled in the Subansiri, Lohit, and Tirap Districts of Arunachal Pradesh since the 1960s, after migrating from the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in erstwhile East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh), and the local Arunachali tribes, continues to trigger incidents. On June 16, 2021, tensions arose over a land dispute in Kathan village in the Wakro circle of Lohit District, when hundreds of Chakma settlers came to the village and allegedly resorted to ‘blank firing’ to threaten the local residents, mostly Mishmi tribals.
In Tripura, the demand of ‘Greater Tipraland’ for indigenous tribes can create a situation of violent ethnic mobilization between local tribes and the Bengalis at any stage. The past insurgencies in the State that lasted for more than a decade-and-a-half, and of which some stragglers remain active, were rooted in this ethnic conflict.
The Naga talks, moreover, have a direct impact on peace and stability in Nagaland and large parts of Manipur (Hills) and Arunachal Pradesh (Tirap-Longding-Changlang). The negotiations/peace process with Hill-based groups in Manipur – the Kuki militant conglomerates [Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United People's Front (UPF)] – are yet to see a conclusion. Dialogue with the KNO and UPF began in 2008. These Hill-based groups were involved in 18 out of 27 attributable killings in Manipur in 2021.
Further, the security situation in Myanmar after the February 1, 2021, coup d'état, has altered dramatically, and this has impacted significantly across the border as well. Intelligence reports indicate that nearly 300 insurgent cadres of Manipur’s Imphal Valley-based groups are currently stationed across in Myanmar and are fighting anti-coup forces on behalf of Tatmadaw (the Myanmar Army). Local reports indicate that, from September 2021 to March 11, 2022, around 204 Assamese youth have also joined ULFA-I in Myanmar.
Surprisingly, however, even as the manifestation of armed violence in the region saw an uptick, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), on mere partisan political considerations, announced on March 31, 2022, the dilution of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) with effect from April 1, 2022. The act was removed completely from 23 districts and partially from 1 district of Assam; 15 police station areas of 6 districts in Manipur; and from 15 police stations in 7 districts in Nagaland. While a rationalization of areas under AFSPA was certainly due, the current decision appears to have been more a knee jerk reaction to the botched Army operation of December 4, 2021, and its aftermath, where 14 persons (13 civilians and one Army trooper) were killed in the Mon District of Nagaland. Later on, December 5, two more civilians succumbed to their injuries sustained during the previous night incident.
However, there were signs of relief as well. On October 28, 2021, an agreement for a six-month-long ceasefire was signed between the Union and State Government, on the one hand, and the Dimasa National Liberation Army (DNLA), on the other. DNLA had been responsible for the adverse figures in Assam – accounting for 55.17 percent of total fatalities and 80 percent of total civilian fatalities in the State between January 27, 2021-December 5, 2021.
Meanwhile, the signing of the Memorandum of Settlement (MoS), with Karbi Anglong based militant groups in Assam is also likely to improve prospects of peace in Assam. On September 4, 2021, the Union Government and the State Government of Assam signed an MoS in New Delhi with six Karbi militant formations: Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF), People’s Democratic Council of Karbi-Longri (PDCK), United People’s Liberation Army (UPLA), Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers-Mensing Kramsa (KPLT-M), KPLT-Ceasefire (KPLT-C) and KPLT-Run Rongpi (KPLT-R).
Later, on November 14, 2021, the United Liberation Front of Asom–Independent (ULFA-I) extended its unilateral ceasefire for another three months. Paresh Baruah, ‘president’ of ULFA-I’s ‘Supreme Council,’ had stated that the outfit would not engage in any kind of ‘military operations’ during these three months. ULFA-I had first declared a unilateral ceasefire on May 15, 2021, which was again extended for three months given the COVID-19 situation in Assam. Then, on August 14, 2021, the ceasefire was extended for another three months. However, on March 4, 2022, Baruah decided no to extend the ceasefire. Since then, one ULFA-I Over Ground Worker, identified as Suraj Gogoi, has been killed.
In Meghalaya, the State Government, following the Government of India’s permission, on March 11, 2022, initiated the process to hold formal talks with the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC). One militant killed in 2021 was from HNLC.
Indeed, the ceasefire/peace talks/dialogues with several of the insurgent outfits, under the pressure of sustained and effective Counter Insurgency operations, have led to substantial improvement in the security scenario of the region.
Further, the phase-wise resolution of the Assam-Meghalaya boundary dispute is also in sight. On March 14, 2022, Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma announced that a tripartite agreement between the Centre and the State Governments of Assam and Meghalaya to resolve disputes between the two States in six areas was signed on March 29, 2022. Six of the 12 areas of difference have been taken up for resolution in the “first phase.” According to the agreement, Assam will get 18.51 square kilometers of the 36.79 square kilometers disputed area, while Meghalaya will get the remaining 18.28 square kilometers. No further details are available.
In Tripura, elections for the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) were successfully held on April 6, 2021. No militancy-linked violence was reported during the polls. TTAADC covers 7,132.56 square kilometers of the total 10,300 square kilometers area of the State, nearly 70 per cent. Also, the first phase of Bru settlement in Tripura has been completed. Over 30,000 Bru tribesmen from Mizoram took shelter in Tripura in 1997 following the killing of a Mizo Forest guard, allegedly by Brus, and subsequent violence. Subsequently many efforts to resettle them in Mizoram failed. Finally, a solution to the issue was reached with the signing of the January 16, 2020, Bru-Reang agreement, between the Governments of India, Tripura and Mizoram, and Bru-Reang representatives. In the agreement it was decided to settle the families permanently in Tripura.
According to a February 10, 2022, report, 1,454 Bru families were settled permanently in Tripura. The work on the next two phases is under process.
Yet, as several challenges persist the Government would need to initiate swift corrective measures to resolve issues which have the potential of derailing peace in the region, and some of which have been neglected or have been allowed to drag on for long.
In particular, the 1,643-kilometer-long Indo-Myanmar international boundary needs to be better guarded. The Director-General of Assam Rifles, Lt. Gen. Pradeep Chandran Nair, in an interview on January 1, 2022, disclosed,
Further, amicable resolution of boundary disputes and a structure to integrate responses across the military, civil and political spectrum needs to be established to deal with region-wide threats and problems, including inter-State cross-border insurgent or human movement, and drug and wildlife trafficking. Urgent efforts are also necessary to make the protracted peace talks with various armed groups to a logical conclusion.
The SFs and the people of the Northeast have paid a terrible price for the relative peace that now prevails. Despite dramatic improvements in the security situation across the region, as compared to the early 2000s, the political dispensation of the country has displayed a great lack of wisdom in its inability to bring permanent solutions to the residual challenges of the region. The SFs have more than done their job; it is now the politicians and the civil administration that continue to fail the people.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia April 11-17, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
Punjab
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
At least 47 persons killed in Pakistan attacks on Khost and Kunar provinces: At least 47 persons were killed in attacks carried out by the Pakistan forces in Provinces of Khost and Kunar in Afghanistan. Local officials in Khost told that airstrikes were conducted by the Pakistani military, but did not provide details. Tolo News, April 16, 2022; Al Jazeera News, April 17, 2022.
Bangladesh Security Forces getting widespread impunity, observes US State Department Report: United States (US) State Department's annual report '2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices' observers that though there are reports that the security Forces in Bangladesh are involved with different types of crimes, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearance, they are getting widespread impunity. "The security forces encompassing the national police, border guards, and counterterrorism units such as the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), maintain internal and border security," the report said. Prothomalo, April 13, 2022.
Cannot be part of NNPGs solution, says NSCN-IM: The Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) group has on the Naga political issue stated that it "cannot be a part of the Naga National Pollical Groups (NNPGs) solution". NSCN-IM said that the Agreed Position signed by the NNPGs with the government of India is "betrayal to the Naga people's mandate of the 1929 Simon Commission Memorandum, 1947 Naga Independence Declaration and 1951 Plebiscite." Northeast Now, April 16, 2022.
Government designates Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar's brother as terrorist under UAPA: On April 11, Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) declared Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar's brother, Mohiuddin Aurangzeb Alamgir alias Ammar Alvi, as a 'terrorist' under Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA). In a gazette notification, UMHA stated that Ammar Alvi, a senior leader of JeM, 'has been involved in Pulwama Central Reserve Police Force Convoy attack of 2019 and in anti-India terror activities on behalf of JeM. Indian Express , April 12, 2022.
TTP using Afghan soil to attack Pakistani border check posts, claim Foreign Office: Pakistan Foreign Office on April 17 claimed that the terrorist elements including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have been using Afghan soil to attack Pakistan's border security posts, resulting in martyrdom of several Pakistani troops. Responding to media queries regarding the recent incidents along the Pak-Afghan border, Foreign Office Spokesperson Asim Iftikhar said the terrorists are using Afghan soil with impunity to carry out activities inside Pakistan Samaa, April 18, 2022.
More than 700 arrested over Easter Sunday attack, says Defence Secretary Kamal Gunaratne: Some 735 suspects have been arrested in connection with the Easter Sunday attack, Defence Secretary Kamal Gunaratne said on April 12. Addressing a media briefing at the Government Information Department, he said that 196 of those arrested have been remanded while 493 persons were released on bail so far. Daily Mirror, April 6, 2022.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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