South Asia Terrorism Portal

INDIA

Northeast: AFSPA - Shrinking Scope
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) in a release dated March 31, 2022, announced,

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), out of 23 districts in Assam from where AFSPA was completely withdrawn, three Districts have recorded one or more fatalities since January 1, 2021 (data till March 31, 2022). These included Kokrajhar, two fatalities; and Dhemaji and Udalguri, one fatality each. All four fatalities were in the terrorist category. Cachar District from where the Act was partially removed also recorded one fatality (a civilian). Similarly, of the six districts within which 15 police stations were removed from the purview of AFSPA in Manipur, two districts recorded fatalities during this period: Imphal West (one civilian) and Thoubal (one trooper). Of the seven districts within which 15 police stations were removed from the purview of AFSPA in Nagaland, none had recorded any fatality since January 1, 2021.

After this latest announcement, according to the Government, out of the total 33 districts in Assam, the Disturbed Area Notification will remain in force in nine districts completely and 1 district partially. Significantly, of these nine districts, only three have recorded one or more fatalities since January 1, 2021: Dima Hasao, nine fatalities (seven civilians, two terrorists); West Karbi Anglong, eight fatalities (all terrorists) and Karbi Anglong, seven fatalities (three civilians and four terrorists).  Similarly, the Notification will remain in force in 57 police stations in 13 districts, out of 72 police stations in a total of 16 districts in the state of Nagaland. Of these 13 districts where AFSPA remains in force, only two have recorded fatalities since January 1, 2021: Peren (3 civilians) and Dimpaur (one terrorist). Also, the Disturbed Areas Notification will remain in force in 82 police stations in 16 districts, out of 97 police stations in 16 districts in the state of Manipur. Of the 16 districts where AFSPA remains in force, only six have recorded fatalities since January 1, 2021. These included Kangpokpi, 12 fatalities (four civilians and eight terrorists); Churachandpur, eight fatalities (two civilians,  five SF personnel, one terrorist); Kangpokpi and  Noney, two fatalities each (all terrorists); and Tengnoupal and Tamenglong, one fatality each (all civilians). There will be no change in case of Arunachal Pradesh where three districts – Tirap, Changlang and Langding, and two police stations, Namsai and Mahadevapur in Namsai District, remain under the Disturbed Areas Notification. Three of these districts have recorded fatalities since January 1, 2021. Tirap and Langding, registered four fatalities each (all terrorists) and Changlang recorded two fatalities (one trooper and a militant). Namsai recorded its last fatality (a trooper) on January 24, 2018.  

An analysis on fatalities since January 1, 2021, in the various Districts that remain under, or that have been brought out of, the purview of AFSPA, thus, does not yield any consistent logic of exclusion or inclusion, and the Government’s statements provide no coherent reasons on this count.

The whole of Assam was declared as a disturbed area by the notification of the Central Government dated November 27, 1990. Some areas of Arunachal Pradesh (Tirap, Changlang District and a 20-kilometer belt bordering Assam) were declared as disturbed area with effect from August 17, 1991. In 2015, this was extended to include three districts (Tirap, Changlang, Langding), the 20-kilometer belt of Arunachal Pradesh bordering Assam, and 16 police stations in nine other districts. Some areas of Manipur state were also declared disturbed areas at the time of the enactment of the Act. The entire state of Manipur was subsequently declared a disturbed area in 1999. In Meghalaya, the Act was imposed in 1991, along 20 kilometers of the Assam boundary. The Disturbed Area Notification was enforced in Tripura on February 16, 1997. In Nagaland, Mon District was initially notified as a disturbed area by the Central Government on August 17,1991. On April 4, 1995, the Government of Nagaland declared the whole of Nagaland a disturbed area.

The Disturbed Area Notification was removed from Tripura in May 2015 and from Meghalaya in March 2018, citing the improved security situation as grounds; and from seven Assembly Constituencies in the Imphal municipal area of Manipur following a series of agitations after the rape and killing of a suspected People’s Liberation Army (PLA) women cadre Th. Manorama allegedly by Assam Rifles personnel in 2004.Hwoever, the Act remained in force in other areas of the State, as security concerns persisted. 

Surprisingly, only few months ago, the Union and State Governments, through different notifications had extended AFSPA in these areas, citing an adverse security situation. 

In a release dated February 28, 2022, the Assam Government stated,

Similarly, on December 30, 2021, UMHA declared,

Further, on December 8, 2021, the Government of Manipur declared,

Interestingly, however, while making the announcement about the withdrawal of Disturbed Area Notification on March 31, 2022, the Government argued,

According to Government data, 2014 recorded 824 incidents, 212 civilian deaths and 20 Security Force (SFs) fatalities. These numbers came down sharply to 209 incidents, 23 civilian fatalities and eight SF fatalities in 2021. 2020 had registered 163 incidents, two civilian deaths and five SFs fatalities.

What dramatic transformation of the security situation led to this abrupt change in assessment? Indeed, if anything, there was a spike in the numbers recorded in 2021, as compared to 2020. The numbers for the first three months of the current year, as compared to the corresponding period of 2021, give no great cause for any radical change in assessment. There have been eight fatalities (four civilians, one trooper and three militants) killed till March 31, 2022, as against 10 fatalities (five each in civilian and SF categories) during the corresponding period of 2021.

Moreover, most of the factors which led fed the insurgencies in the northeast have certainly not been significantly altered over the past few months over which the Governments’ assessments appear to have undergone this sharp makeover. The Naga issue, the ‘mother of all insurgencies,’ remains exactly where it was, as the talks between prominent players drag on without any signs of positive movement, and with periodic expression of extreme dissatisfaction from the most prominent groups engaged in the unending peace process. With growing frustration, there are apprehensions of a turn to violence. In Assam, a range of issues, including the ‘foreigners’ problem and the fear of cultural marginalization among the indigenous population, which originally led to the insurgency, remain unresolved and, in some measure, have been aggravated by recent policy initiatives. The violent anti-Citizenship Act agitation was a clear indication of the simmering discontent. The Hill-Valley divide in Manipur, one of the major reasons of insurgency in the State, has been periodically aggravated, with the latest point of friction arising from the Manipur (Hill Areas) Autonomous District Councils Bill 2021. While Hill-based civil society groups want the Bill to be passed for “equal development,” Valley-based groups are strongly opposed, arguing that the provisions of the Bill are against “co-existence and equitable sharing” and could lead to the “bifurcation” of the State. The Bill has been put into cold storage for now. Meanwhile, one of the major factors which led to the spread of insurgencies in the region was the availability of safe havens in neighboring countries. Insurgent activities slowed down as both Bangladesh and Myanmar started taking strong action against the Indian armed groups. Current reports, however, indicate that the deteriorating situation in the Myanmar following February 1, 2021, coup, have once again helped these groups to re-arm and re-organize.

It is abundantly clear that the reason cited by the Centre for the withdrawal of AFSPA is not credible. No objective assessment of the security situation can justify the very recent extension (between December 2021 and February 2022) of the Disturbed Areas, and their present and sudden contraction.

It is the evident that political compulsions are at play, pressuring the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Central Government and the States of Assam and Manipur, as well as the Nagaland Government in which BJP is a major player. There was a huge public outcry in the region for the complete withdrawal of AFSPA in the aftermath of the December 4-5, 2021, incident in which a total of 15 civilians and one trooper were killed in an operation and subsequent reprisals, at a location between the Oting and Tiru villages in the Mon District of Nagaland. The Chief Ministers of the States in across the region, particularly from the BJP, as well as local BJP leaders, had joined the chorus of those demanding withdrawal of AFSPA. Subsequently, the UMHA formed a committee to “review the application of AFSPA in Nagaland and make suitable recommendations within a period of three [3] months.” Significantly, Nagaland will be going to polls in March 2023.

There is no doubt that the review of the application of AFSPA and the Disturbed Areas Act was long overdue in the insurgency-afflicted States of the Northeast. Fatalities in the region, at peak, totaled 1,110 in 2007, and had come down to a low of just 27 by 2020, albeit spiking to 72 in 2021.

The area under these Acts was arbitrarily extended no more than four months ago, and has now, just as arbitrarily, been slashed. This latter measure will, no doubt, be welcomed by the people of the region. However, the sheer whimsicality of these successive moves can only erode public confidence in the rationality of decision-making at an all-powerful Centre.

It seems that the BJP has, for purely political reasons, accepted the argument that the removal of AFSPA is essential for permanent peace in the region. The transformative improvements in the security situation over the decades have, however, been secured because of – and not despite – the application of AFSPA and the Disturbed Areas Act. The application of these Acts – or their withdrawal – must be based on transparent and reality-based assessments of the situation of the ground, and not on an opportunistic political calculus, lest insurgent groups once again find spaces to renew their movements amidst the smoldering discontents of India’s troubled Northeast.

INDIA

Arunachal Pradesh: Enduring Challenges
Oyindrila Chattopadhyay
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 20, 2022, two militants of the Isak Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) were killed and another one was injured in an encounter with the Security Forces (SFs) at Old Kolagaon area near Khonsa in the Tirap District. Following the gunfight, one militant was arrested and arms and ammunition, including one AK 56 rifle with a magazine, one Carbine, one Pistol, a large stockpile of ammunition and other materials were recovered from the site.

Reacting to the incident, on March 22, 'ministry of information & publicity' of NSCN-IM declared,

However, a day later, on March 23, NSCN-IM issued a corrigendum rectifying its claim,

This corrigendum followed the locals claims that Ratto Kakho, one of the persons killed, and Pakngam Lowang, the injured person, were civilians and had no association with NSCN-IM.

The locals held protests to condemn the use of civilians as human shields by the NSCN groups and demanded the ouster of all NSCN groups from the Tirap, Changlang and Longding (TCL) region.

Responding to the claims that Kakho and Lowang were civilians, Col. A. K. Das, Commanding Officer, 6 Assam Rifles, asserted, on March 21, 2022,

On the same day, Tirap Deputy Commissioner (DC) Taro Mize ordered a magisterial inquiry into the incident.

Further, giving an update on the incident on April 1, 2022, Assam Rifles stated that one civilian identified as Pakngam Lowang was injured as he was being used as a human shield by the insurgents.

This is the lone terrorism-linked fatal incident reported from the State in the current year, so far (data till April 3, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2022, there was one incident resulting in two fatalities (both militants). Through 2021, the state recorded eight fatalities (seven militants and one trooper) as against 10 fatalities [one civilian, two Security Force (SF) personnel and seven militants] recorded in 2020. There were 17 fatalities (11 civilians, three SF personnel and three militants) in 2019, the second highest in a year since March 6, 2000, when South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) started compiling data on insurgencies in the northeast, with the highest of 41 fatalities (all militants) recorded in 2011.

Significantly, civilian fatalities, an important index of the prevailing security situation in any specific region, which were the highest at 11 in 2019, came down to none in 2021. The last such killing was reported on May 16, 2020, when a civilian was killed in cross-fire during a clash between the Army and NSCN-IM militants at Pumao village in Longding District. The firing erupted when SFs launched an operation after getting information regarding the militants’ presence in the area. The militants, however, managed to escape. The last civilian killing in a militant attack was reported on May 21, 2019, when 11 people, including Member of State Legislative Assembly (MLA) Tirong Aboh, his son Longgem Aboh, and two of his Personal Security Officers (PSOs), were killed in an ambush by NSCN-IM militants at the 12th mile on the Khonsa-Deomali road in Tirap District. Tirong Aboh was a vocal opponent of NSCN-IM.

The significant improvement in Arunachal Pradesh is largely the result of the SFs establishing their dominance on the ground. While the SF:militant kill ratio was at 1:1 in 2019, it swung heavily in favour of the SFs, at 1:3.5 in 2020 and 1:7 in 2021.  The SFs also arrested 76 militants in 2021 in addition to 65 in 2020 and 73 in 2019. SFs arrested 76 militants in 48 incidents in 2021, adding to 65 arrested in 45 incidents in 2020. Those arrested in 2021 included 19 each from NSCN-IM and NSCN-K-YA; 15 from the Reformation faction of NSCN (NSCN-R); five from the Eastern Naga National Government (ENNG); two from the Unification faction of NSCN (NSCN-U); three from the Independent faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I); one each from the Khaplang faction of NSCN (NSCN-K), Niki Sumi faction of NSCN (NSCN-NS) and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO). 10 arrests were in the Not Specified category.

SF dominance has also led to improvements in other security parameters. Only one incident of civilian abduction was reported in 2021, as compared to three such incidents in 2020. However, two incidents of abduction have already been reported in the current year.

Nevertheless, concerns continue to linger.

The TCL remains the ‘axis’ of violence in the State. In 2021, fatalities were recorded in three of the Arunachal Pradesh’s 25 Districts. While Longding recorded four fatalities, Tirap and Changlang recorded two each. In 2020 as well, all 10 fatalities were reported from these three Districts – Longding (eight), Tirap (one) and Changlang (one). In 2019, fatalities were reported from Tirap (12), Changlang (three) and Longding (one). The location of one fatality remained unspecified. The last confirmed fatality outside this ‘axis’ was reported from Namsai District on January 24, 2018, when an Army trooper was killed in a militant ambush on an Army convoy in the Nangtaw Khamti area of Namsai District.

Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts, which border Myanmar, have long been the worst affected in the State. Between March 6, 2000, and December 31, 2021, these three Districts accounted for 179 fatalities (25 civilians, 28 SF personnel and 128 militants) out of the 235 (29 civilians, 37 SF personnel and 169 militants) reported across the State. Of these, Tirap accounted for 104 fatalities (15 civilians, 17 SF personnel, and 72 militants), followed by Changlang 49 (eight civilians, 10 SF personnel and 31 militants), and Longding, 26 (two civilian, one SF trooper and 23 militants).

Unsurprisingly, on October 1, 2021, the Union Government extended the disturbed area status in these three Districts for another six months. The notification read,

Earlier, in its notification of April 1, 2021, in addition to these areas, the Government had declared another two Police Stations – Roing in Lower Dibang Valley District and Sunpura in Lohit District – as 'disturbed areas.'  

Aurnachal Pradesh continues to be used as transit route by the militants operating in other States. More recently, on March 12, 2022, three children sustained injuries in a grenade blast at Chinghan village in Tirap District. The incident occurred when the children were reportedly playing with the grenade, which was wrapped in a polythene bag, mistaking it for a toy. According to Assam Rifles, the grenade may have been dropped by militants while they were passing by the village, which is an established transit route. On March 6, 2022, following information that a group of 12-15 NSCN-IM militants had sneaked into Tirap District from Nagaland, the SFs had launched an operation to flush them out. The militants, however, managed to escape and the grenade is suspected to have dropped by this group while fleeing.

The strife between the Chakmas, who are predominantly settled in the Subansiri, Lohit and Tirap Districts of Arunachal Pradesh since the 1960’s, after migrating from the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in erstwhile East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh), and the Mishmi, one of the major indigenous tribes of the State, continues to trigger incidents. On June 16, 2021, tensions arose in Kathan village in the Wakro circle of Lohit District, when hundreds of Chakma settlers came to the village and allegedly resorted to ‘blank firing’ to threaten the local residents. According to sources, Chakmas with machetes and locally-made guns called khanwa, came into the village and started pelting stones to protest against the desecration of a Buddha Temple established in the area. However, the local villagers claimed that the Chakma settlers had encroached on Mishmi land and secretly built the temple on it. The Chakmas claimed that the area came under the designated Chakma villages of Boddisatta-I, II and III. The claim of residents of Kathan has also been supported by the Lohit District Police, who stated that, according to a traditional boundary settlement between the Mishmi and the Singpho communities on April 6, 2021, the mentioned area fell under Mishmi community land. Following the incident, the All-Arunachal Pradesh Student’s Union and All Mishmi Students’ Union questioned the State Government’s stand on the ‘rampant encroachment’ by Chakmas on Mishmi land. The tension, meanwhile, was diffused following Police intervention.

On January 24, 2022, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) sought from the Union Ministry for Home Affairs (UMHA) and the State Government, within six weeks, an action taken report on authorities carrying out an alleged ‘act of racial profiling’ of the Chakma-Hajong communities residing in the State, and a resultant ‘plan’ to relocate them to other states. NHRC further directed the secretary of the UMHA, and the chief secretary of the State Government to “ensure that human rights of the Chakmas-Hajongs are protected all the way.” Significantly, in his Independence Day speech August 15, 2021, Chief Minister Prema Khandu had declared that all Chakma-Hajongs would be shifted out of the State for their “rehabilitation with dignity.”

Arunachal Pradesh, popularly known as the 'Land of Dawn-lit-Mountains', assumes a particularly critical importance due to its geo-strategic location, bordering three countries, Bhutan, China and Myanmar. Though insurgency related fatalities have declined significantly, the State continues to face persisting threats from the spill-over of the other insurgencies in the Northeast and the militant sanctuaries in neighbouring Myanmar. Sustained counter insurgency operations against Assam and Nagaland-based militants in TCL areas are needed to end the problem, along with efforts to fast-forward long-neglected developmental projects.