South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Resurgent Terror
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On July 12, 2023, one Police Constable, identified as Mohsin Azam, was killed and another three Policemen sustained injuries during an attack by unidentified terrorists on the newly established Police check posts in the Faqiran Masjid area of Mir Ali Tehsil (revenue unit) in the North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

On July 5, 2023, three Security Force (SF) personnel and a child were killed and 10 others sustained injuries in a vehicle-borne suicide attack in the Miranshah area of North Waziristan District. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) disclosed that the suicide bomber intended to target the security forces’ post, but the assailant was intercepted in time by on-duty soldiers who “prevented a major catastrophe”. The deceased child was among nine other passengers, whose van was damaged in the explosion.

On July 5, 2023, an Army Major, Mian Abdullah Shah (33), was killed during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Shakhas area of Khyber District. “Three terrorists and their facilitators were apprehended. Sanitisation of the area is being carried out to eliminate the terrorists present in the area,” the ISPR said.

On July 5, 2023, a paramilitary trooper was killed and another sustained injuries when an improvised explosive device (IED) went off near vehicles of the paramilitary forces in South Waziristan District. Police said that the paramilitary forces were clearing the road when the IED, planted on the roadside, exploded.

On July 2, 2023, three terrorists were killed in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Kulachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District. According to ISPR, the terrorists were wanted for conducting a raid on a Police Check Post in Kulachi on April 11, 2022, which resulted in the death of five Police constables.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP has recorded a total 395 terrorism-related fatalities, including 190 terrorists, 175 SF personnel and 30 civilians, in the current year, so far (data till July 16, 2023). During the corresponding period of 2022, the province had recorded 308 such fatalities, including 124 terrorists, 92 SF personnel and 92 civilians.

Meanwhile, a comparative analysis of terrorism-related fatalities in first six months of a year in the province show that the fatalities recorded in 2023 were highest since 2014: 381 in 2023, 286 in 2022, 141 in 2021, 110 in 2020, 54 in 2019, 40 in 2018, 87 in 2017, 129 in 2016, 134 in 2015 and 291 in 2014. In 2013, there were 544 fatalities in the first six months.

On year-on-year basis, 2022 had recorded 527 such fatalities, the highest after 2014. There were 300 fatalities in 2021, 216 in 2020, 130 in 2019, 167 in 2018, 129 in 2017, 215 in 2016, 298 in 2015 and 607 in 2014.

A statistical report released by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) on July 3, 2023, also underlines the surge in violence in the province. According to the PICSS report, KP emerged as the most affected province during the first half of 2023, with 174 reported militant attacks. These attacks claimed the lives of 266 individuals and injured 463. Among the reported attacks, 100 took place in mainland KP, resulting in 188 deaths and 354 injuries, while 74 incidents occurred in the tribal Districts (the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas, FATA), causing 78 deaths and 109 persons injured.

Indeed, violence in KP has recorded a significant surge since the collapse of ‘official talks’ between the Government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on November 28, 2022. Some of the major attacks (each resulting in three or more fatalities) by the TTP in KP since then include:

May 4, 2023: At least six Army soldiers and three terrorists were killed during a gunfight with terrorists in the Dirduni area of North Waziristan District.

March 30, 2023: At least four Policemen, including Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Iqbal Mohmand, were killed while six Policemen were injured, when terrorists attacked a Police check post in Lakki Marwat town (Lakki Marwat District).

February 11, 2023: At least four soldiers were killed and 22 others, including 15 employees of the Petroleum Company, were injured in a suicide attack on an SF and Marri Petroleum Company convoy at Khajori Chowk in the Mir Ali sub-division of North Waziristan District.

January 30, 2023: At least 84 persons were killed and another 220 were injured in a suicide blast inside a mosque in the Police Lines area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. The suicide attacker, who was in Police uniform, was present in the front row during the Zuhr prayer (the second prayer offered at noon). Two TTP leaders, Sarbakaf Mohmand and Omar Mukaram Khurasani, claimed the attack as “revenge” for the death of the chief of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), Khalid Khorasani, in the Barmal District‎ of ‎Paktika Province in Afghanistan on August 7, 2022.

December 20, 2022: At least 25 terrorists and three soldiers were killed during a rescue operation at the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) Police Station in the cantonment area of Bannu town (Bannu District). On December 18, 2022, a detained terrorist overpowered a constable at the CTD Complex in Bannu Cantonment (Bannu District) and, after snatching the constable's weapon, freed 34 other detained terrorists. The terrorists held the CTD facility under siege for two days before the SFs launched the rescue operation.

Unsurprisingly, the US State Department’s 2021 Country Reports on Terrorism, released on February 27, 2023, observed that TTP had increased the number of its targeted attacks in Pakistan, particularly in KP, with the goal of overthrowing the Provincial Government and enforcing Sharia law through a terrorist campaign against the military and the state. The TTP uses the porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan and the tribal belt on both sides as a sanctuary for the training and deployment of its operatives, the report noted.

On December 27, 2022, Pakistan’s Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah disclosed that there were around 7,000 to 10,000 TTP fighters in the region, and they were accompanied by 25,000 members of their families. He added that some of the terrorists, who had previously laid down arms, had secretly resumed activities, and alleged, “The biggest reason for this is the failure of [the] Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government and Counter Terrorism Department… It is their job to stop it.”

Meanwhile, the Provincial Police force and CTD lack the capacities to face the new wave of terrorism. According to a December 19, 2022, report, the KP CTD had a staff of 2,135, against an authorized strength of 3,161. This put an average CTD strength across KP’s 34 districts at 62 personnel per district, a number that could hardly register against the TTP onslaught. As against Punjab’s massive fleet of 1,466 Police vehicles, KP had a mere 448.

Endemic shortages also afflict the Provincial Police force. Interestingly, on February 1, 2023, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif blamed the KP Government for its failure to equip the Police and civil armed forces to counter terrorists, questioning the manner in which the provincial Government had spent funds to the tune PKR 417 billion received from the Federal Government since 2010. During the Federal Cabinet meeting, the PM demanded, “Where did these funds go even though the National Counter-Terrorism Authority and Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) had been established?” The PM said that the nation wanted the KP Government to be held accountable for the rise of terrorism in the province.

While, the provincial Government lacks the will to equip the Police and CTD, the weapons and equipment profile of the terrorists has steadily improved. A report released by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on March 31, 2023, noted that the weapons left behind by United States Forces when they pulled out from Afghanistan in 2021, and that had been seized by the Afghan Taliban, have reached terrorist groups, mainly the TTP, operating in Pakistan, principally in KP. Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher who tracks the TTP, claimed that the group’s access to sophisticated combat weapons has had a “terrifying impact”, especially on the relatively poorly-equipped Police forces in Pakistan.

In order to hide their failure to counter terrorism, the CTD issued a report on May 15, 2023, giving details of 711 IBOs in the first four months of 2023, resulting in the arrest of 158 terrorists and the elimination of 39 others. These IBOs succeeded in thwarting at least 53 terrorist incidents. During these operations, SFs recovered 47 kilograms of explosives, 105 firearms, 150 hand grenades, one explosive jacket, and 2,822 cartridges.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is planning to launch a nationwide operation to root out Islamist terrorists, the National Security Committee (NSC) declared, after a meeting on April 14, 2023. The statement read,

Unfazed by Government’s announcement, the TTP continues to escalate its activities, and violence in KP in particular, and the country at large, is likely to rise even further. 

AFGHANISTAN

The flourishing narcotics industry
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

According to World Drug Report, 2023, published in June by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC):

The tragedy of Afghanistan, which is among the world's poorest and most underdeveloped nations, is compounded by narcotics, in combination with the failure of institution-building, bigoted political authority, a gaping trust deficit, the myopia of international aid groups, and lack of consensus.

It was reported on May 31, 2023, that drug cartels in Afghanistan maintain a symbiotic relationship with the Taliban, giving farmers advances to plant ephedra and poppy, while also providing finances to keep the "jihadist proto-state alive”. Moreover, drug cartels use Pakistani sources to facilitate the acquisition of chemicals required to produce drugs. Besides, diverse nationalities are used as hostages until their cartels can afford to pay for the delivery of the drugs and, in return, terrorist groups offer security services in exchange for payment.

Although the Taliban announced a ban on poppy cultivation, use and trafficking in April 2022, the policy is not reflected in practice. Independent sources confirm that the cultivation of poppy is in full swing, since there are no other sources of adequate income across vast regions of the country. Since the illegal opium trade also offers substantial revenues for the cash-strapped Taliban administration, it has been reluctant to enforce its embargo. Between USD 1.8 billion and USD 2.7 billion, or 12 to 14 per cent, of Afghanistan’s GDP was attributed to the production of opium in 2021.

Further, according the UNDOC Research Brief Opium Cultivation in Afghanistan, published in November 2022, the income made by farmers from opium sales tripled from USD 425 million in 2021 to USD 1.4 billion 2022 – the equivalent of 29 per cent of the 2021 agricultural sector’s value. Opium cultivation in Afghanistan increased by 32 per cent over the previous year (2021), to 233,000 hectares, making the 2022 crop the third largest area under opium cultivation since monitoring began. Opium cultivation continued to be concentrated in the south-western parts of Afghanistan (accounting for 73 per cent), where the largest increases took place, followed by the western provinces (accounting for 14 per cent). Increases in opium cultivation were observed in almost all major opium poppy cultivating provinces; most importantly in Badghis in the west. Opium poppy cultivation also continued to be concentrated in the south-western provinces of Afghanistan – Nimroz, Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan and Zabul – which together accounted for 73 per cent of the total area under opium poppy cultivation.

In some regions of Afghanistan, opium poppy cultivation occupied a significant proportion of overall agricultural land. In Helmand province, for instance, one-fifth of arable land was dedicated to opium poppy. In some Districts the proportion was even higher, taking away fields from vitally important food crops, including wheat.

Ironically, the official position of the Taliban regime is strongly anti-narcotics, and in a political eyewash the regime periodically reiterates its anti-narcotics 'policy'. On May 6, 2023, a Counter-Narcotics Department of the Ministry of Interior Affairs statement declared that over 1,670 acres of poppy farmlands had been destroyed in the six provinces of the country. The statement claimed,

Earlier, on March 18, 2023, Taliban 'supreme leader' Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzadeh issued a decree via Twitter that "the cultivation of marijuana is absolutely prohibited in the whole country, and after this, no one can plant marijuana (Narcotics/drugs) on their land, and if they plant marijuana on their land, their cultivation will be destroyed." As a part of this decree, the Judicial Institutions of the Taliban were also ordered to punish violators in accordance with the Shariat. Additionally, Akhundzadeh directed the Taliban's Ministry of Internal Affairs and other investigative divisions to bring the perpetrators before the courts.

ISome sources claim dramatic success for these efforts. According to a June 6, 2023, Alcis press release,

At the same time, however, a diversification of narcotics production is taking place in Afghanistan, with the rise of the production of methamphetamine (meth/crystal meth) and other drugs. As reported on June 25, 2023, Afghanistan remains as one of the world's largest producers of heroin and methamphetamine, most of it smuggled abroad. However, the country is also home to nearly 4 million drugs users, or close to 10 per cent of the total population. A February, 2023 report suggests that Ephedra, a common herb that is locally known as "Oman," is sold by harvesters in local markets and is then processed in hundreds of meth labs across Afghanistan. The drug, which has the appearance of white crystals, is then smuggled to neighbouring countries, from where it eventually reaches Europe and North America. The crystal-meth industry in Afghanistan took off around 2017, when drug traffickers discovered that the native ephedra herb could be used to make ephedrine, the key ingredient in crystal meth. For decades, Afghanistan has been the world's biggest producer of opium, but experts now say the country has also become a significant supplier of crystal meth. The meth industry is booming despite a Taliban ban on cultivation, production, and trafficking of all illicit narcotics. Graeme Smith, a senior consultant for the International Crisis Group (ICC), notes, "The narcotics industry and other informal aspects of the economy appear to be serving as a safety net for the vast numbers of Afghans thrust into poverty since the Taliban takeover…"

Najib Ahmadi, a former senior Afghan counternarcotics official, says that during its insurgency the Taliban was against the production of meth and banned it in areas it controlled. The group, he says, feared that meth would weaken its income from taxing opium cultivation and heroin trafficking. "[But] the production of meth has increased after the Taliban returned to power," he said. "Meth is now being processed in all corners of the country." Ahmadi adds that most of the meth in Afghanistan was produced in the country's western and northern provinces.

In reality, a major source of the Taliban’s income still come from the production and trafficking of heroin and methamphetamine. The Taliban generates its maximum revenues from collecting taxes from poppy plantations, extraction units, and smuggling networks. Both poppy production and the methamphetamine industry are expanding rapidly, and satellite imagery shows significant growth under Taliban rule. Numerous meth labs have appeared just over the last few years. The shift from heroin took place when it was realised that methamphetamine can be produced at a cheaper rate. The production thus, began in areas where wild ephedra plants grew, particularly in the highlands of south and south-east Afghanistan. The drug lords understood that ephedra plants, which grew in the wild, were readily available in the market, and the authorities were turning a blind eye to the trade.

Afghanistan is the core of the Golden Crescent, which also includes Pakistan and Iran. The Golden Crescent region serves as the starting point for three distinct heroin trafficking pathways. Most of the Afghan heroin trafficked to Europe travels via the Balkan Route, via Iran and Turkey. The Russian Federation and Central Asia receive heroin via the Northern Route, through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The southern route, which traffics heroin to Iran and Pakistan and from these nations to other areas of the world through sea and air, has emerged as a result of intensified law enforcement along the two other routes.

Pakistan plays a vital role in the distribution of narcotics produced in Afghanistan throughout the world. Traditionally, the Torkham border crossing, Kunjrab, Ghulam Khan, and Karachi, comprise the drug trade route from Afghanistan, through Pakistan and onward to the rest of the world. However, some 62 alternate drug trafficking routes pass via Pakistan's Balochistan province as a result of increased security. Road trafficking is used to bring contraband into Iran, Turkey, and then to Europe. A sea route through Balochistan's Chaman, Nushki, Turbat, Chagai, Panjgur, and Gwadar Districts to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Africa, across the rest of South Asia. High-end drug cartels have a third, more exclusive alternative at their disposal, the air route.

The drug trade from Afghanistan through Pakistan remains unrestricted, mostly due to weak investigation procedures and lenient court rulings that allow drug smugglers to evade significant punishment.

Further, a July 1, 2023, report asserts that, according to Afghan farmers, opium cultivation has increased since 2021, despite the Taliban’s prohibition. Moreover, there was no decrease in heroin seizures in Pakistan and the surrounding areas during the COVID-19 pandemic's 2020 timeframe, indicating that heroin manufacturing and trafficking were not hampered by the outbreak. At the same time, although volumes were higher, fewer shipments were routed through Pakistan. It is anticipated that similar quantities of precursor chemicals will continue to be smuggled via the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

The production and trafficking of narcotics is also a lucrative cottage industry for the common people of Afghanistan, particularly crucial to survival at a time of enveloping economic crisis. Generations of Afghans have not seen peace in their lifetime, leaving the country riven by war, economically ravaged and socially fragmented. Despite the efforts of some western agencies to whitewash the Taliban regime, ignoring its brutality and criminality, Afghanistan remains the most important source and conduit of illegal narcotics for the world.