South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Terrorism Thrives
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 7, 2024, four persons, including two Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed while three others were injured in a suspected incident of sectarian attack on a passenger coach and a vehicle near Sadda Bazaar in the Kurram District.

On January 5, 2024, (SFs shot dead two terrorists, including one “high value terrorist”, Gul Yousaf, during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Tank District, according to an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement. Though the statement added that “weapons and ammunition were recovered from their possession”, it did not divulge details of the recovery. Gul Yousaf was carrying a reward money of PKR 2.5 million on his head.

On January 4, 2024, three children aged between five and 15 years, were killed in a landmine blast at the Khajoori Zakir Khel village of Mir Ali tehsil (revenue unit) in North Waziristan District. The children were shepherds who were grazing their cattle in fields near Khajoori checkpost when the explosion took place.

On January 4, 2024, two Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU) personnel were killed in an explosion in the Shawal area of North Waziristan District when the BDU was involved in a clearance operation searching for landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).

On January 2, 2024, six young non-local barbers were killed by unidentified assailants in an incident of targeted killing in the Moski village of Mir Ali tehsil. Preliminary investigations revealed that the victims, all of whom hailed from Punjab, had recently migrated to North Waziristan to pursue their trade. No group has, so far, claimed responsibility for the attack.

On January 2, 2024, four terrorists, including a suicide bomber, were killed by SFs during an IBO in North Waziristan District.

On January 1, 2024, one person, Haleem Jan, was killed while another was injured in the Mazlum Ulasi Tehrik area of Mamund tehsil in Bajaur District, when their vehicle was attacked by unidentified assailants.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 25 terrorism-related fatalities, including 14 civilians, five SF personnel and six terrorists, have been reported in the current year, thus far (data till January 7, 2024) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). During the corresponding period of 2023, the province had recorded 20 fatalities (Two SF personnel and 18 terrorist).

KP recorded a total of 929 fatalities (193 civilians, 329 SF personnel and 407 terrorists) in 310 incidents of killings in 2023, as against 527 such fatalities (119 civilians, 173 SF personnel, and 235 terrorists) in 184 such incidents in 2022, registering an increase of 76.28 per cent in overall fatalities. Overall fatalities, on year-on-year basis, have been on a continuous rise since 2020, when fatalities increased from 130 (30 civilians, 69 SF personnel, and 31 terrorists) in 2019 to 216 (61 civilians, 57 SF personnel, and 98 terrorists) in 2020, and further, to 301 (72 civilians, 108 SF personnel, and 121 terrorists) in 2021.

Significantly, overall fatalities declined between 2014 and 2019, barring 2018, when they increased to 167, from 129 in 2017. Fatalities had fallen from 946 in 2013 to 607 in 2014, 298 in 2015, 215 in 2016. Overall fatalities in 2023 are the highest in a year since 2013.

Other parameters of violence also indicated a worsening security situation in the province in 2023. Total terrorism-linked incidents jumped sharply from 225 in 2022 to 470 in 2023, the highest since 2013, when there were 504 such incidents. The number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased from 56 in 2022 to 82 in 2023, the highest since 2011, when there were 85 such incidents; the resultant fatalities in such attacks also increased from 337 in 2022 to 586 in 2023. Similarly, KP accounted for an increased number of explosions, from 45 in 2022 to 110 in 2023 (the highest since 2013, when there were 198 such incidents), and the resulting fatalities spiked from 129 to 296. The province recorded 28 suicide attacks in 2023 (the highest since 2010, when there were 42 such attacks) as against eight in 2022. In the worst attack, on January 30, at least 84 persons, including 83 Policemen, were killed, and another 220 were injured, in a suicide blast inside a mosque in the Police Lines area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. Two Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leaders, Sarbakaf Mohmand and Omar Mukaram Khurasani, claimed that the attack was “revenge” for the death of Khalid Khorasani, the chief of TTP’s splinter group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), in the Barmal District‎ of ‎the Paktika Province of Afghanistan, on August 7, 2022. However, TTP central ‘spokesman’ Muhammad Khorasani denied any involvement in the attack.

Of 38 Districts in KP, 22 recorded terrorism-related violence, according to the SATP database. The most violent District in 2023 was North Waziristan, with 151 fatalities, followed by Peshawar (122 fatalities), Dera Ismail Khan (109 fatalities) and South Waziristan (107 fatalities). In 2022, again, North Waziristan District accounted for 177 fatalities, followed by Peshawar (87), Bannu (60) and Dera Ismail Khan (43). In 2021 as well, North Waziristan recorded the maximum of 106 fatalities, followed by South Waziristan (51), Peshawar (25) and Bajaur (22). Of 38 Districts, 21 Districts registered terrorism-related incidents in 2021. 2020 saw terrorism-related incidents in 19 Districts, of which North Waziristan had the highest number of fatalities (110), followed by Peshawar (27) and South Waziristan (21).

On December 21, the KP Police released a report on terrorist attacks in the province during the preceding three years, which noted that, as against 260 terrorist attacks in 2021, there were 495 in 2022 and 572 attacks in in 2023. Out of 572 attacks in 2023, the highest number, 87, was reported from Dera Ismail Khan; while 79 occurred in North Waziristan, 72 in Khyber and 53 in the Tank District.

The surge in terrorism-related violence in the province can be attributed to the three principal factors. First, the United States (US)-Western withdrawal from neighbouring Afghanistan. Second, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 14, 2021. And finally, the collapse of ‘official talks’ between the Pakistan Government and the TTP on November 28, 2022. The spike in violence in KP in 2023 was foreseeable, when TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali, in the wake of the collapse of peace-talks, asked his fighters to resume attacks.

On January 2, 2024, the Federal Ministry of Interior informed the Senate (Upper House of Parliament) that the continuous influx of TTP cadres in significant numbers, with recruitment, training and deployment of suicide bombers, in the merged Districts [districts which were part of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and now merged with KP] of KP was "cause for concern". The Ministry highlighted the TTP's reorganisation and operational expansion during the peace talks in 2022, which significantly increased its capacities for violence. He observed,

Significantly, when the US pulled its forces out from Afghanistan in 2021, it left behind around USD 7 billion worth of military equipment and weapons, including firearms, communications gear, and even armoured vehicles. The Afghan Taliban seized the weapons during the chaotic US withdrawal. On September 8, 2023, the Pakistan Foreign Office (FO) expressed concern over the "advanced weapons" being used by terrorists operating out of Afghanistan, in attacks in Pakistan, particularly on its security agencies. "These modern weapons have fallen into the hands of terrorists in Afghanistan, who are using these [weapons] to attack Pakistan and its security agencies," FO Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch stated.

On December 15, 2023, Pakistan urged a United Nations (UN) panel to investigate how TTP was acquiring modern weaponry to carry out terrorist attacks in the country. Usman Jadoon, Pakistan’s Deputy Permanent Representative, highlighted the alarming trend during a UN Security Council (UNSC) open debate on the threat posed by the diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of small arms and light weapons. He argued that terrorist groups like TTP acquire such weapons “from illicit arms markets or receive them from entities that want to destabilise a particular region or country.”

The Islamic State-Khorasan Province/ Islamic State-Pakistan Province (IS-KP/IS-PP) also operate in the province. According to the SATP database, IS-KP/IS-PP have been responsible for 74 of the total 929 fatalities recorded in the province in 2023. 67 civilians, one SF personnel and six terrorists have been killed in IS-KP/IS-PP linked violence. There were many other attacks in the province, which security agencies speculated reflected the footprints and modus operandi of IS-KP/IS-PP. Reports of growing ties between the Islamic State and other groups are also emerging. According to a United Nations (UN) report discussed at a Security Council meeting in New York on August 25, 2023, the TTP and other groups affiliated with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are providing NATO-calibre weapons to the IS-KP/IS-PP as well.

Further, IS-KP/IS-PP has been targeting Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam–Fazl (JUI-F) since some years due to ideological difference between the two, and JUI-F’s close proximity with the Afghan Taliban and TTP. IS-KP/IS-PP perceives the JUI-F as being closely connected with the Taliban Government in Afghanistan. According to the SATP database, KP has recorded at least 12 attacks targeting the JUI-F, resulting in 72 fatalities, since October 29, 2019. Of these, eight (including the July 30, 2023, attack, which killed 64 persons and wounded 100 others) have been reported from Bajaur alone. All of these were carried out by unidentified assailants, but have been claimed by IS-KP.

Meanwhile, a provincial Home and Tribal Affairs Department report of November 22, 2023, noted that the JUI-F was among the mainstream political parties most vulnerable to terrorist attacks in KP, while the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Awami National Party (ANP) were the next two on the list. Political leaders, who also ran businesses, were also threatened by militant groups to extort large sums from them. The report also observed that there were “significant threats to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) due to its anti-establishment stand… These threats emanate from the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and other militant groups, which desire to cash [in on] this opportunity to pressure and malign the present government.”

Meanwhile, the caretaker Pakistan Government has ruled out any talks with TTP. On October 13, 2023, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar asserted that the state of Pakistan was powerful enough to fight TTP even for next 100 years. “We don’t have any intention to talk with TTP,” he said, adding that the writ of the state will be established at all costs.

With TTP and its affiliated groups, as well as the IS-KP/IS-PP growing in strength, the menace of terrorism in the province is unlikely to be controlled in the near future. 

INDIA

Andhra Pradesh: Residual Vexations
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) was pushed further back in the state in 2023. Indeed, according to a December 21, 2023, report, from an initial strength of about 500 cadres and 1,500 militia members, dominating at least 18 of the 22 Mandals (administrative units) in the Alluri Sitharama Raju District, the Maoist strength dropped to below 20 cadres and about 100 militia members. More importantly, almost all the top surviving leaders, including the 'chief' of the Andhra-Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC), Gajarla Ravi aka Uday aka Ganesh, who were believed to be present in Alluri Sitharama Raju District have been forced to move to 'safer places' in the neighbouring state, Chhattisgarh. They are reported to have taken shelter in the South Bastar area of Sukma District in Chhattisgarh. Alluri Sitharama Raju District Superintendent of Police (SP), Tuhin Sinha, thus noted,

Having been conclusively pushed to the wall, the 'central committee' of the CPI-Maoist and the AOBSZC leadership, have been given an ultimatum to infiltrate and regain some of the lost ground in the state. Leaders such as Uday ('central committee' member), Aruna ('SZC' member) and Suresh ('SZC' member), and Jagan alias Kakuri Pandana ('divisional committee member'), reportedly guarded with about 40-odd cadres, have been told to re-establish their contacts and move into the AOB region before the upcoming Parliamentary Elections in 2024. They are reported to be trying to move in through the tri-junction area of Chintoor (Alluri Sitharama Raju District), Kalimela (Odisha), and Sukma (Chhattisgarh).

On December 18, 2023, to emphasize their relevance among the masses, the AOBSZC disclosed that their 'committee' will extend full support to Anganwadi workers across the state, in their ongoing protests against the government for failing to address their list of 19 key demands. In a release, Ganesh, the 'committee secretary', stated that Anganwadi workers should continue their protest until the government addressed their demands, adding,

Ganesh stated, further, that the ruling YSR Congress Party had promised to create 265,000 jobs and increase salaries of Anganwadi workers. But, after coming to power, the party forgot all the poll promises.

Meanwhile, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) 2023 recorded a total of 13 Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked incidents as against 14 in 2022. Such incidents have been on a decline since 2019, dropping from 37 in 2018 to 30 in 2019. There were 19 incidents in 2020 and 15 in 2021.  

In particular, incidents of killing have been falling since 2020. There were seven incidents of killing in 2019, down to four in 2020, two in 2021 and one each in 2022 and 2023. Overall fatalities have also been declining since 2020, with an exception in 2021. There were 14 fatalities in 2019, which dropped to five in 2020, increased to seven in 2021, and again down to one each in 2022 and 2023. 

Moreover, civilian fatalities dropped from five in 2019 to four in 2020 and have since remained at one in the three subsequent years (2021, 2022 and 2023).  The last Security Force (SF) fatality was reported on May 5, 2017, when a Home Guard, identified as Sheikh Valli, was killed in a landmine blast triggered by CPI-Maoist cadres on the Lothugedda junction-Balapam stretch, when he was returning from the CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) outpost at Rallagedda in Visakhapatnam District. The last Maoist fatality in the state was recorded on June 16, 2016, when six Maoists were killed in an exchange of fire with the Greyhound forces of Andhra Pradesh Police, at Theegalametta forest in Koyyuru Mandal (administrative sub-division) in the Mampa Police Station area of Visakhapatnam District.

Meanwhile, at least 10 Naxalites (LWEs) were arrested in 2023 in addition to five arrested in 2022. Due to mounting SF pressure, a total of at least nine Naxalites surrendered in 2023, in addition to 106 such surrenders in 2022, according to the SATP database.

Other comparable parameters of violence also indicate falling Maoist activities in the State. The Maoists did not exchange fire with SFs in 2023, as in 2022. The last such incident was reported on September 23, 2021. The State did not record any incident of explosion in 2023, 2022 or 2021. The last incident of explosion was recorded on August 3, 2020, in which two civilians were killed. The Maoists did not issue any bandh (shut down strike) call in 2023, as in 2022; there was one such call in 2021.

Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE, a high 507 LWE-linked incidents were recorded in in Andhra Pradesh in 2005, when the highest civilian fatalities, 132, were also recorded. A high of 41 SF fatalities was recorded in 2001, and of Naxalite fatalities in 2003, at 165.   

An analysis of overground and underground Maoist activities in the state supports an assessment of their weakening impact. According to the SATP database, Maoist activities were reported in four districts in 2023 (Andhra Pradesh has a total of 26 districts). Only Alluri Sitharama Raju District fell into the 'moderately affected’ category, while the remaining three districts — Visakhapatnam, Prakasam, and Sri Sathya Sai — were 'marginally affected.’ By comparison, in 2022, Maoist activities were reported from just three districts, with the Alluri Sitharama Raju District falling in the 'moderately affected’ category, and the remaining two — East Godavari and Visakhapatnam — 'marginally affected.’

Indeed, on October 6, 2023, in a review meeting on LWE held in New Delhi, Chief Minister Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy affirmed that the LWE was on the wane in the state and Maoist activities were contained to a few pockets of agency areas. Chief Minister Reddy added that the government had been able to restrict Maoist activities to a few pockets in Alluri Sitharama Raju and Parvathipuram Manyam districts, adding that the issue had been combatted by sharing intelligence with neighbouring Odisha, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh. Furter,

However, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) notification of December 8, 2022, continued to categorise five districts in Andhra Pradesh – Alluri Sitharama Raju, East Godavari, Parvathipuram Manyam, Srikakulam and Vishakhapatnam – as LWE-affected districts of the state. These five districts were provided special central funds, as earmarked under the Security-related Expenditure (SRE) scheme for LWE-hit States, for the financial year 2022-23. The notification, also categorised Alluri Sitharama Raju as the “most affected LWE district” of Andhra Pradesh. It is pertinent to recall here that earlier, as per the UMHA notification of June 2021, the five LWE-affected districts of Andhra Pradesh were East Godavari, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and West Godavari. Visakhapatnam was also included in the list of the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ from eight LWE-affected states across the country.

Despite tremendous security consolidation in the state, the Andhra Police continue to face critical deficits in capacity and deployment in the state. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2022, the Andhra Paresh Police had a strength of 88,689 policemen, as against a sanction of 106,074, yielding a deficit of 16.38 per cent. The Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) in AP was just 54.44, against the national average of 63.70. Both the state and national averages for the Police/Area ratio were well below sanctioned levels, at 65.11 and 81.80, respectively. The police-population ratio (police personnel per 100,000 population) in AP was 167.67, as against a sanction of 200.54. Moreover, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) officers in the state was 144, but just 128 officers were in position, a deficit of 11.11 per cent, weakening executive supervision of the Force.

The sheer dominance of SFs on the ground has forced the Maoists on the back foot in the state, as in the rest of the country. However, residual elements of the Maoist insurgency continue with their efforts to reorganize. It is, nevertheless, unlikely that the rebels will be able to resuscitate their influence in Andhra Pradesh.