South Asia Terrorism Portal
J&K: Escalating Losses Ajit Kumar Singh Senior Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 21, 2023, four Army personnel were killed and another two were injured in an encounter with terrorists at Dhatyar Morh between Dera Ki Gali and Bufliaz, falling under the jurisdiction of Surankote Police Station in Poonch District. According to reports, the terrorists, whose number is believed to be between three and four, had taken positions atop the hill from where they targeted the Army vehicles which were transporting personnel to the site of a cordon-and-search operation.
On November 22-23, four Army personnel, including two captains, identified as Captain M. V. Pranjal of 63 Rashtriya Rifles and Captain Shubham Gupta of 9 Para Special Force, were killed and three other Army personnel, including a Major, were injured during a counter-terrorist operation in the Kalakote area of Gulbagh Forest in the Rajouri District. Two Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) foreign terrorists, trained in Afghanistan, were also killed during the encounter. A fifth soldier, who had been injured during the operation, died on November 23.
On September 13, 2023, Colonel Manpreet Singh, Battalion Commander of 19 Rashtriya Rifles, his company commander Major Aashish Dhonchak and Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Humayun Bhat, were killed in a counter-terrorist operation in the Kokernag area of Anantnag District. Meanwhile, another soldier, who was reported missing on September 14, was confirmed dead on September 15. The terrorists managed to escape.
On August 4, 2023, three Army soldiers were killed during an encounter with terrorists in the Hallan forest area of the Manzgam Block in Kulgam District. Upon receiving information about the presence of militants, Security Forces (SFs) launched a search operation. They were fired upon during the intensified searches, triggering an encounter. The terrorists managed to escape.
On May 5-6, 2023, five soldiers of the Indian Army’s Special Forces were killed and an officer was injured (name not stated) when militants triggered a remote-controlled Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast in the Kesari Hills forests in the Kandi area of Rajouri District. The incident occurred during a combing operation by the SFs against perpetrators of the April 20, 2023 Poonch attack. Later, on May 6, a terrorist was killed and another was injured. One AK 56, four magazines of AK 56 rounds, one pistol with magazines, three grenades and one ammunition pouch was also recovered from the encounter site.
On April 20, 2023, five Army soldiers were killed and another was injured when terrorists targeted a moving vehicle of the Army with grenades and small arms’ fire at Bhatta Durrian in the Mendhar area of Poonch District. According to reports, one of the terrorists managed to stop the truck by throwing grenades while another opened calibrated fire towards its fuel tank, triggering a massive blaze in the vehicle. In the meantime, a third terrorist opened fire at the soldiers on-board. The terrorists managed to escape.
Since the February 14, 2019, Pulwama Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) Attack by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which resulted in the death of 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel – the highest fatality figure for SFs in a single attack since the commencement of the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in 1988 – the State/Union Territory (the State of J&K was made a Union Territory in 2019) has recorded at least 15 major attacks (each involving three or more fatalities), including the six mentioned above, targeting SFs, resulting in the killing of 66 SF personnel (data till December 24, 2023).
These 15 major attacks have been reported from seven districts: five in Kashmir Division and two in Jammu Division. The Kashmir Division districts accounted for nine of these attacks and 38 of these fatalities: Kupwara (four attacks, 18 SF fatalities), Anantnag (two attacks, nine SF fatalities), Baramulla (one attack, five SF fatalities), Srinagar (one attack, three SF fatalities), Kulgam (one attack, three SF fatalities). Jammu Division districts accounted for remaining six attacks and 28 fatalities: Poonch (three attacks, 14 SF fatalities), Rajouri (three attacks, 14 SF fatalities). The first such major attack in the Jammu Division was reported on October 11, 2021, in which five Army personnel were killed in a village close to Dera Ki Gali in Surankote, Poonch District. Since then nine major attacks (of the total of 15) have taken place, of which six (including the October 11 incident) have been reported from the twin districts of Rajouri-Poonch.
Significantly, by the end of 2011, at least seven Districts in the State had been declared completely free of militancy including Jammu. 13 Districts, according to the State Home Ministry, had reported militancy related incidents ‘in single digits’ including Poonch, Rajouri, and Jammu (Jammu had recorded three incidents in the year, though it had been declared militancy free). In January 2012, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs asked the State Government to take measures to free more Districts from militancy through 2012.
Worryingly, however, all these three Jammu Division Districts – Jammu, Poonch and Rajouri – remained terrorism-affected thereafter as well. Between 2012 and 2023, while Jammu accounted for 76 terrorism-linked fatalities (15 civilians, 22 SF personnel, 38 terrorists, one Not Specified), Rajouri recorded 93 fatalities (11 civilians, 28 SF person, 54 terrorists) and Poonch 101 fatalities (one civilian, 27 SF person, 73 terrorists).
Meanwhile, similar patterns have emerged in most of the fatal terror attacks targeting SFs since the Pulwama attack – counter-terror operations going awry.
Indeed, reports now claim that the terrorists attacked the army vehicles on December 21, 2023, when the troops were going for a cordon and search operation following 'specific intelligence input' and got trapped. Earlier, after the May 5, 2023 attack (mentioned above), Jammu-based defence spokesperson Lt. Col. Devender Anand, had disclosed,
It is significant that most of the SF fatalities in the recent attacks have occurred in SF initiated operations, where the terrorists have entrenched themselves in fortified positions, or have hit troops in movement. These incidents have reversed the trend of declining fatalities among SFs since the recent high of 95 recorded in 2018, now reversed in 2023. 33 troopers have already bene killed in 2023 as against 30 in 2022. There were 78 SF fatalities in 2019, 56 in 2020 and 45 in 2021. Moreover, the SF:terrorist kill ratio, though it remains in favour of the SFs in 2023 as well, has deteriorated: 1:2.6 in 2023 as compared to a far more substantial 1:6.4 in 2022.
With SF pressure in the Kashmir Valley having escalated, the terrorists are now concentrating far more in the Rajouri-Poonch region, taking advantage of the difficult terrain to draw out the SFs into deadly ambushes. In dire need of resurrection, the Pakistan-backed terrorists, have adopted new and high-risk tactics to bring a greater element of surprise to target SFs. Restoring SF dominance on the ground will require a review of the response patterns to ‘specific intelligence’ on terrorist presence or movement, and significant adaptations in operational tactics to accommodate the challenges of terrain that transfer advantage to a concealed adversary, lying in wait for pursuing forces.
ZUF - NSCN-IM: Disruption in the shadow of accords Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 17, 2023, two active cadres of the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), Daiguang Gangmei aka Kiakna (21) and Rachunlung Gangmei (25), and one cadre of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), ‘sergeant major’ Ramreikan aka Akan, were killed in a gunfight between ZUF and NSCN-IM at Lamdangmei Village Prayer Mountain under the Khoupum Police station in Noney District of Manipur.
On September 24, 2023, a suspected ZUF cadre, David Gaingamlung Gonmei, was killed and another sustained injury in a gunfight with suspected NSCN-IM cadres at Phoibut Village in the Tupul area of Noney District in Manipur.
On July 28, 2023, two suspected NSCN-IM militants, ‘major’ Alen Sekho and ‘captain’ Angam, were killed and one civilian, identified as Gaitaguang Gangmei, sustained injuries, in firing by suspected ZUF cadres at Rengpang Village under the jurisdiction of Khongsang Police Station in the Noney District of Manipur.
On July 20, 2023, a ‘regional chairman’ of ZUF, Obed Kamei, was killed by suspected NSCN-IM cadres at Dailong Village in the Tamenglong District of Manipur.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the formation of ZUF in 2011, there have been a total of 22 violent clashes between the ZUF and the NSCN-IM resulting in 40 fatalities including 18 ZUF cadres, 15 NSCN-IM cadres, another six militants (group identities not established) and one civilian (caught in cross fire). These include four violent clashes between the ZUF and the NSCN-IM resulting in seven fatalities including four ZUF cadres and three NSCN-IM cadres in 2023. Moreover, the ZUF has killed four civilians and two Security Force (SF) personnel. Another 19 ZUF cadres have also been killed – 10 by SF personnel, seven in intra-factional clashes, one by unidentified assailants, and one lynched by villagers in Tamenglong District – between February 25, 2022 and December 22, 2023. There have, thus, been a total of 65 ZUF-linked fatalities.
Two of the most prominent factional clashes (in terms of fatalities) include:
All ZUF-linked fatalities have been reported from two states: Assam (three) and Manipur (62). Significantly, no ZUF linked incident has been reported from Nagaland, so far.
ZUF, a Manipur-based Naga group, was formed on February 25, 2011, when around 10 NSCN-IM cadres, who deserted the group along with arms and ammunition, joined up with some National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) cadres. The outfit also raised an armed wing, the Zeliangrong Tiger Force (ZTF). Jenchui Kamei is the 'commander-in-chief’ of ZUF.
At the time of its formation, the ZUF claimed that its primary objective was to protect the interests of the Zeliangrong tribe, under the slogan "Zeliangrong Ringtelo" – ‘Long live the Zeliangrong people’. The ZUF pledged, "We will defend the land and resources of the Zeliangrong people, our culture, our historical values, traditional and customary habitats of the Zeliangrong community." It further stated that ZUF would strive to protect the interests of other minority groups and tribes in the region. Claiming that ZUF's jurisdiction falls over the 'Zeliangrong Naga' inhabited areas of Assam, Manipur and Nagaland, it declared, "ZUF shall strive to maintain good relations with other revolutionary movements in the north eastern states."
On February 25, 2017, ZUF stated,
Later, on December 27, 2022, a 'Cessation of Operation' Agreement was signed between the Central Government, Manipur Government and the ZUF. Under this agreement, the ZUF agreed to give up violence and join the democratic process. A statement from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) noted,
The UMHA further asserted that the Agreement was a “significant boost to the peace process in Manipur.”
Ironically, just four days after the Agreement was signed, the ZUF faction led by its ‘ministry of information and publicity’ (MPI) in-charge, G. Nguiba, expressed strong condemnation of the complete surrender of arms and cadres by Jenchui Kamei group. A statement released by Neguiba declared that the Zeliangrong movement remained ‘very much alive and moving ahead with renewed zeal in the right direction’, and that ZUF would continue to stand for the cause of the Zeliangrong Homeland, adding, “We will never surrender our cause nor give in to any amount of pressure from within and without.”
On August 11, 2023, a delegation comprising leaders of ZUF (in talks) and other leaders of Zeliangrong tribes met Chief Interlocutor A. K. Mishra in New Delhi, where they discussed various impending issues with the Chief Interlocutor and deliberated on possible solutions. Before that, on April 19, 2023, ZUF and the Government of India (GoI) held the first round of official and political talks in New Delhi. Both sides agreed to continue the dialogue on the dynamics of the Homeland demand at the earliest.
It is pertinent to recall here that peace talks with NSCN-IM has been going on since 1997 and even after the ‘breakthrough agreement’ of 2015, no clear solution has been achieved.
The unabated violent engagement between these two groups, despite the fact that both of them are engaged in peace talks with the government, clearly highlight the existing deficiencies in the ongoing peace processes with insurgent groups in the region. Several insurgent groups, though they are engaged in peace talks, retains weapons and continue to operate openly, flaunting the terms of the ground rules agreed upon, and engaging in a wide range of criminal activities, including extortion, drug trafficking, abduction for ransom and weapons’ smuggling, among others. On the other hand, it is evident that the Government enters into peace agreements on terms that are ambiguous, if not in bad faith, and relies overwhelming on protracting the negotiation process to exhaust the leaderships of the insurgent groups. Moreover, many peace agreements have resulted in beak-away factions rejecting the accords and continuing with violence. Despite these many contradictions and difficulties, most of the insurgencies in India’s Northeast have been substantially contained. Nevertheless, the underlying problems remain largely un-addressed and an exclusive reliance on such a strategy of fragmentation and exhaustion cannot be relied upon indefinitely, particularly with mounting evidence of poor political management in the region.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia December 18-24, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
All issues with regard to ULFA-I will be resolved once Paresh Baruah returns to the mainstream, says Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma: On December 24, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said that all issues related to Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA-I) will be resolved once ULFA-I 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah returns to the mainstream. Sarma said that instances of people going to join ULFA-I or police conducting encounters will keep on happening until Paresh Baruah joins the peace process. India Today NE, December 25, 2023.
Centre handed over 324 cases to NIA in last five years, states Union Minister of State for Home Nityanad Rai: Central government has handed over 324 cases to National Investigation Agency (NIA) in the last five years, Union Minister of State for Home Nityanad Rai shared the information in a written reply to a query from a member of Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) on December 20. The Minister said these 324 cases were handed over to the NIA between December 1, 2018, and November 30, 2023. NDTV, December 21, 2023.
In 20223 Pakistan witnessed highest number of suicide attacks since 2014, says PICSS report: According to statistics released by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) regarding suicide attacks in 2023, Pakistan witnessed the highest number of suicide attacks since 2014 during this year, with nearly half of them targeting the Security Forces. As many as 48 per cent of deaths and 58 per cent of injuries were inflicted upon SF personnel. "A staggering 29 suicide attacks were reported, resulting in the tragic loss of 329 lives and leaving 582 individuals injured. This marks the highest death toll since 2013 when 683 people lost their lives in 47 suicide bombings", report stated. Dawn, December 24, 2023.
Afghan nationals are involved in terror activities across Pakistan, say CTD: The Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) in its report revealed the involvement of Afghan nationals in terror activities across Pakistan. According to the CTD report, 92 arrested terrorists for their alleged involvement in terror incidents in two years were Afghan nationals whereas terrorists of Afghan origin carried out 50 terror attacks in 2023 across Pakistan. This report further said that Afghan terrorists were also involved in 19 terror attacks in 2022. Ary News, December 24, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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