South Asia Terrorism Portal
Persistent Darkness Ajit Kumar Singh Senior Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Puncturing the euphoria created a by section of experts that Taliban 2.0 would be strikingly different from the Taliban regime of 1996-2001, and that things would change for the better in war-ravaged Afghanistan, since their return to power in Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban has kept civilians, especially women and its adversaries, in agony. On March 8, 2024, the International Women's Day, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) urged the Taliban to end restrictions on women and girls. Roza Otunbayeva, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) and head of UNAMA, observed,
Similarly, Alison Davidian, UN Special Representative for Women in Afghanistan, noted that "the space for Afghan women and girls continues to shrink at an alarming pace, and with it Afghanistan's future prospects to escape a vicious cycle of war, poverty, and isolation."
Earlier, in January 2024, UNAMA had raised deep concerns over arbitrary arrests and detentions of women and girls by Taliban for alleged non-compliance with the Islamic dress code. Roza Otunbayeva, stated,
According to present estimates, more than 12 million Afghan women are in need of humanitarian assistance.
Meanwhile, a report titled A barrier to securing peace: Human rights violations against former government officials and former armed force members in Afghanistan, released by UNAMA on August 22, 2023, covering the period between August 15, 2021 to June 30, 2023, documented at least 800 instances of extrajudicial killing, arbitrary arrest and detention, torture and ill-treatment and enforced disappearance carried out against individuals affiliated with the former government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and its Security Forces. This is despite the announcement by the Taliban of a "general amnesty" for former government officials and former members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, noted,
Further, in a report released on September 20, 2023, UNAMA announced that it had documented over 1,600 cases of human rights violations committed by Taliban during the arrest and subsequent detention of individuals. The report covered the period from January 1, 2022 to July 31, 2023, with cases documented across 29 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Nearly 50 per cent of these violations comprise acts of torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.
On the positive, however, conflict/terrorism-linked fatalities continued to fall through 2023. 2023 recorded a total of 500 fatalities, including 290 civilians, as against 1,653 fatalities, including 654 civilians, in 2022. In 2021, there were a total of 8,469 fatalities, including 1,122 civilians. A total of 157 fatalities, including 78 civilians, have already been recorded in 2024 (data till March 10).
Significantly, between August 15, 2021, and December 31, 2021, the Taliban was responsible for at least 44 civilian killings. The Taliban was responsible for 129 civilian killings in 2022, 75 in 2023 and 15 in 2024 (data till March 10). The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP or Da'esh) was responsible for 253 civilian killings in 2022, 62 in 2023 and eight in 2024 (till March 10).
An UNAMA report released on June 27, 2023 noted that Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) remain a significant concern in Afghanistan - despite an overall decline in civilian casualties. Of 3,774 civilian casualties between August 15, 2021 and May 30, 2023, three quarters were caused by indiscriminate IEDs in populated areas, including places of worship, schools and markets. The report noted,
In addition to attacks on Shia places of worship, the report stated there were at least 345 (95 killed, 250 wounded) casualties as a result of attacks targeting the predominantly Shia Muslim Hazara community in schools and other educational facilities, on crowded streets and on public transportation. Further, the majority of civilian casualties resulted from attacks carried out by the self-identified Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant - Khorasan Province (ISIL-KP). The number of civilian casualties as a result of IED attacks carried out by ISIL-KP significantly increased in the immediate aftermath of the Taliban takeover on 15 August 2021. Suicide attacks, carried out both by ISIL-KP and other actors, were the leading cause of IED-related civilian harm.
Clearly, Da'esh (Islamic State) remains a major security concern for civilians, as well as a challenge for Taliban fighters. Da'esh killed 21 Taliban fighters and lost 42 of its own cadres in 2023, while in 2022, these numbers were at 140 and 112, respectively. In 2024, IS-KP has killed three Taliban fighters without suffering any loss (till March 10).
According to the UN Secretary General's report released on March 6, 2024, Da'esh "maintained its focus on targeting Shi'a civilians and the de facto authorities while continuing to call for attacks on the international community, including the United Nations, in its propaganda." The report further noted that Da'esh "also continued its efforts to recruit from regional countries and, in its propaganda, promoted the involvement of foreign nationals in its attacks."
Moreover, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction's (SIGAR's) latest quarterly report released in January 2024 noted that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has "benefited from the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, and that the frequency of TTP attacks against Pakistan, especially along the border, continues to climb." Indeed, according to the report the TTP "poses the most serious regional threat." The report also observed that "Al Qaeda and its affiliates, particularly al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, also remained intent - but lacked the ability - to directly attack the United States from Afghanistan." Al-Qaeda's 'general command', believed to be based in Afghanistan, released three press statements calling for attacks on United States, European and Israeli embassies and buildings globally, in response to the Israel-Hamas war.
Meanwhile, the 'turf war' between the Resistance Forces and Taliban continued. In 2023, the Resistances Forces killed 112 Taliban fighters, in addition 1,239 killed in 2022. 69 Taliban fighters have already been killed by these forces in 2024 (till March 10). On the other hand, the Taliban has killed two Resistances Forces fighters in 2024. 13 Resistance Forces cadres were killed in 2023 and 208 in 2022.
Amidst these developments, the Taliban government's main focus remains on cultivating radical Islamist values. Indeed, on January 26, 2024, the Taliban Minister of Education Habibullah Agha issued instructions to all provincial Departments of Education, outlining curriculum changes and teaching guidelines for the next school year, commencing March 21, 2024. Accordingly, subjects such as civic education, calligraphy, life skills, and foreign languages other than Arabic are to be reduced or removed, in favour of Islamic studies. There is also an emphasis on prioritizing the teaching of Islamic subjects over other subjects and on hiring religious scholars to teach in schools. The Taliban, meanwhile, has reiterated that its governance is consistent with sharia law.
There are, however, some indications of economic stabilization. The estimated number of people in need of humanitarian assistance has decreased from 28.3 million in 2023 to 23.7 million in 2024. Further, the Taliban have eradicated opium production by 86 per cent according to Alcis, a British geographic information service, and by 95 per cent according to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
Nevertheless, according to the latest SIGAR Quarterly report published in January 2024, headline inflation (a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices) remained negative at -8.1% as of November 2023, due to a continued economic weakness and depressed aggregate demand. Moreover, Afghanistan's trade deficit widened in 2023, compared to 2022. Taliban revenue collection in Financial Year (FY) 2023 increased by 3.1 per cent compared to FY 2022, but total revenue fell short of its target by AFN eight billion. These economic struggles have increased unemployment and pushed half of the population into poverty, with 15 million people facing food insecurity. Acute food insecurity is predicted to affect 15.8 million people by March 2024, an increase of 500,000 from 2023.
The situation in Afghanistan continues to be chaotic, with a large proportion of the population living in daily fear and insecurity, threatened by the oppression of the Taliban, on the one hand, and the spectres of poverty, dispossession and hunger on the other. With the Taliban unshakeably committed to its antediluvian ideology, there is little hope for any dramatic improvements in the foreseeable future.
Mizoram: Legacy Issues Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 7, 2024, acting on intelligence inputs, Assam Rifles intercepted a vehicle in the Sanagu market area in the Lawngtlai District of Mizoram and recovered 3,000 rounds of sniper rifle ammunition and 10 Passive Night Sight (PNS) devices.
On February 15, 2024, Assam Rifles recovered 110 gelatine sticks, 100 detonators, and some ammunition for small arms at Tuisih Village in the Siaha District of Mizoram.
On February 10, 2024, Assam Rifles intercepted a vehicle on the Mualkawi route (Champhai- Zokhawthar Road) in the Champhai District of Mizoram and recovered five guns, 10 daggers, 10 walkie-talkies, 100 pistol rounds, 100 lightweight bulletproof plates, four heavyweight bulletproof plates, 20 sets of combat dresses, 50 combat scarves and 110 pairs of jungle boots. One person, identified as Lalnuntluanga (24), was arrested.
On February 5, 2024, Assam Rifles seized a huge cache of explosives and detonators along the Sangau Pankhua road in Lawngtlai District of Mizoram at a Mobile Vehicle Check Post (MVCP) and arrested two persons, Siama Thanga (50) and Amengi (40). The confiscated items included 150 kilograms of explosives, 1,800 detonators, and more than three kilometers of Cordex. Reports stated that the seized explosives were intended for resistance forces in Myanmar.
Incidents of recoveries of arms and ammunition in Mizoram have increased considerably in recent times. The South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) has already recorded four such incidents in the state in 2024 (data till March 10), while 2023 recorded 11 such incidents and 2022, 13 incidents. The number of such incidents in 2022 was the highest recorded in a year, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the Northeast. The upsurge in recoveries was due to increased vigilance by Security Forces (SFs) after the February 1, 2021, coup d'état by Tatmadaw (the Myanmar military) in Myanmar.
Significantly, on February 1, 2024, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) uncovered an international smuggling network of arms, ammunition and explosives, operating in the northeastern states and arrested a key accused, Lalngaihawma, from the Aizwal District of Mizoram. NIA disclosed,
Mizoram did not record any insurgency-linked fatality in 2023, while there were three such fatalities in 2022, in one incident in which three civilians were killed and one was injured, in an explosion in the Durtlang locality of Aizawl District. Several detonators, along with some Myanmarese currency, were recovered from the blast site. Investigations later revealed the remnants of the explosive PENT (pentaerythritol tetranitrate) used in the blast had come from Myanmar. No fatality has been recorded in 2024, thus far (till March 10).
Significantly, between 2016 and 2021, Mizoram did not record any insurgency-linked fatality. The last fatality before this period was recorded on March 28, 2015, when three Policemen were killed and another two were injured, as suspected militants of the Hmar People's Convention-Democrats (HPC-D) opened fire on a convoy accompanying a group of Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) near Zokhawthiang in Aizawl District.
Meanwhile, 10 terrorists - seven Kuki Chin National Army (KCNA) cadres and three cadres of Myanmar-based resistance groups - were arrested in 2023. In 2022, three terrorists - two cadres of the Maraland Defence Force (MDF) and one of the National Liberation Front of Tripura-Biswa Mohan Debbarman faction (NLFT-BM) - were arrested.
In the recently held State Assembly elections on November 7, 2023, the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) won 27 seats out of 40. ZPM's victory signifies a possible paradigm shift in the political landscape, earlier dominated by traditional parties. Founded in 2017 by Lalduhoma, a former Indian Police Services (IPS) officer, the party is poised to become a powerful alternative political force, forming the first non-Mizo National Front (MNF) and non-Congress government in 35 years.
Meanwhile, according to a January 25, 2024, report, the Peace Accord Mizo National Front Returnee Association (PAMRA), an association of former MNF cadres, stated that militants belonging to Chakma outfits from the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in Bangladesh, were reportedly undergoing training at camps set up in Mizoram. The report claimed that the Chakma rebels were undergoing training at remote locations in the Lunglei and Mamit Districts of Mizoram, which share an international border with Bangladesh. In Lunglei District, the training was going on at Psalms, Tara Banya, Chumochumi, Malchari, Bhalukkyachari and Andar Manek Villages, whereas in the Mamit District, one of two training camps was located at Silsury village. It should be noted here that the MNF, which was an insurgent outfit active in Mizoram, transformed itself into a regional political party subsequent to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of India (GoI), on June 30, 1986.
Following the February 2021 military takeover in Myanmar, more than fifty thousand civilians have fled from the Chin State and Sagaing Region of Myanmar and entered Indian states in the northeast, mostly in Mizoram and Manipur. As per data available with United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), on May 1, 2023, over 40,150 refugees from Myanmar were living in Mizoram, and 8,250 were living in Manipur. In this context, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) has asked Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh to keep a check on border areas and "allow people into the country when it is absolutely essential on humanitarian grounds." The porous borders also bring about other security challenges, such as drug trafficking and weapons smuggling. There have been seizures of drugs and illegal substances in Mizoram and Manipur by the Assam Rifles, along the Indo-Myanmar border. Assam Rifles in Mizoram confiscated drugs valued at INR 9.56 billion in 2023 (till December 25). It had recovered drugs worth INR 3.3 billion in 2022.
The resettlement of Bru refugees remained a concern in Mizoram. The resettlement of the Bru refugees in 12 identified locations in Tripura is still ongoing and may take another few months to complete. Even after large-scale rehabilitation in Tripura, hundreds of Bru tribe people continue to live in Mizoram, especially in the state's Mamit District, which was the scene of ethnic strife in 1997.
The boundary dispute between Mizoram and Assam remains another source of tension. However, on February 9, 2024, Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma stated that he and his Assam counterpart, Himanta Biswa Sarma, had agreed to make joint efforts to resolve the long pending inter-state border dispute. Both leaders also agreed to maintain peace along the borders as long as border talks were ongoing. Lalduhoma disclosed, "We agreed that no more violence will be allowed along the border. We have been making efforts to resolve the dispute." The border dispute between Mizoram and Assam had taken an ugly turn in 2021, when Police forces from the two States exchanged fire at the inter-state boundary, leading to the death of six policemen and a civilian from Assam.
Mizoram continues to be unsettled by an increase in the smuggling of arms and ammunition, even though the state has not witnessed any insurgency-related violence recently. In fact, there has been a sharp decline in terrorism related incidents in the State after the signing of the Mizo Accord in 1986. However, the State is burdened by thousands of refugees from Myanmar, fleeing violence from that country since the start of 2021. Security issues such as drug trafficking and weapon smuggling are the result of porous borders. The border issue between Mizoram and Assam is a legacy of the past, and ongoing negotiations between the Chief Ministers of the two States are a positive sign.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 4-10, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Manipur
Nagaland
Odisha
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Restrictions against women exacerbate Afghanistan's poverty and isolation, says UN official: On March 8, Roza Otunbayeva, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN) and Head of the UN Deputy Mission in Afghanistan, highlighted the escalating danger of pushing Taliban-led Afghanistan further into poverty and isolation due to restrictions against women. She expressed regret over witnessing in Afghanistan a "disastrous negative investment" instead of investing in women, which inflicts severe harm on women and girls, hindering peace and prosperity. The Khaama Press, March 9, 2024.
GoI and NSCN-GPRN extends ceasefire agreement for one year: On March 7, the Government of India (GoI) and the Khango led National Socialist Council of Nagaland/Government of the People's Republic of Nagaland (NSCN-GPRN) mutually agreed to extend the ceasefire agreement for another year. The extension, effective from April 18, 2024, to April 17, 2025, underscores the commitment of both parties to maintaining a conducive environment for dialogue and conflict resolution. North East Now, March 8, 2024.
28 persons still missing in Manipur, says CM N. Biren Singh: On March 5, Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh stated that that 28 individuals remain on the missing list amidst the ongoing communal violence between the Kukis and Meiteis in the State that erupted on May 3, 2023, reports Northeast Now. According to government reports, there are 63 missing cases documented. Out of the 63 missing cases, the CM disclosed that 26 individuals were discovered deceased, while nine were successfully located alive. North East Now, March 6, 2024.
69 per cent decline in terror incidents in J&K since 2014, says UMHA: On March 4, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) stated that Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) experienced 69 percent reduction in terror incidents, 100 percent decline in stone-pelting incidents, 81 percent decline in civilian deaths and 47 percent decline in Security Forces (SF) casualties during the ten years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Government. Money Control, March 5, 2024.
TTP announces resolution of past "differences" with its key faction JUA: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) issued a statement announcing the resolution of past "differences" between the TTP central and its key faction, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JUA). The statement while officially acknowledging the disagreements between JuA and the TTP, has outlined a plan for restructuring the organization to accommodate JuA. Notably, several prominent JuA leaders have been reinstated in the new TTP organizational structure by giving them key positions. The News, March 2, 2024.
Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti declares general amnesty for Baloch insurgents: The Chief Minister of Balochistan, Sarfraz Bugti, on March 10 declared a general amnesty for Baloch insurgents who choose to renounce militancy and return to the national fold. During an appearance on Geo TV program, he further stated that the Government's doors are open to all, including the leadership of various Baloch separatist insurgent factions. The Khorasan Diary, March 11, 2024.
Pakistan urges UNSC to ask Afghan Taliban to cut ties with TTP, eliminate terrorism: Pakistan's Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Munir Akram, on March 6 asked the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to urge the Taliban rulers in Afghanistan to terminate their relationship with the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP could "soon pose a global terrorist threat" if left unchecked, Ambassador Akram warned the UNSC while addressing a special UNSC session on Afghanistan. "The Afghan interim government's failure to control the TTP and other terrorist groups erodes its claim of full control of its territory that it asserts in order to secure international recognition," he said. Dawn, March 8, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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