South Asia Terrorism Portal
Tribal Elders: Soft targets Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 2, 2024, two Tribal elders of the Bugti tribe, identified as Dost Mahammad Notani and Bahar Khan Notani, sustained injuries when they were targeted in a bomb attack in the Dera Bugti District of Balochistan. Both the elders were close aides of Chief Minister of Balochistan, Sarfaraz Bugti, who was newly sworn in on March 2.
On February 26, 2024, Tribal Elder Haji Majeed was shot dead by unidentified assailants during night prayers in a mosque in the Bara area of Khyber District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
On February 24, 2024, a Tribal Elder was shot dead by unidentified assailants in the Ferozekhel area of Orakzai District in KP.
Earlier the same day, hand-written letters, threatening locals and particularly Tribal Elders in the Mattani area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP, had been distributed. The letters bore the insignia of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and warned against reporting the movement of the militants.
On January 24, 2024, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) went off near the residence of Tribal Elder Malik Hazrat Noor in the Speen area of South Waziristan District in KP. However, no loss of life was reported, though there was some material damage to the residence.
On January 16, 2024, Tribal Elder Malik Raz Muhammad was injured along with his son and brother, in an IED attack on his car in the Azam Warsak area of South Waziristan District in KP.
On January 10, 2024, Tribal Elder Kaleemullah Khan, an independent candidate contesting for the National Assembly - 104 seat, was killed along with two of his bodyguards in the Tappi area of North Waziristan in KP. North Waziristan District Police Officer Rohan Zeb disclosed that Kaleemullah was on his way back home from Miranshah, when his convoy was attacked by unknown assailants.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), during the first 60 days of the current year (2024), at least three Tribal Elders have been killed and three injured in six separate incidents across Pakistan's tribal areas. During the corresponding period of 2023, no attack on tribal elders was reported. However, the remaining period of 2023 recorded seven such attacks, in which seven Tribal Elders were killed.
Attacks on Tribal Elders in Pakistan: 2005-2024*
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Total
The militants started targeting Tribal Elders and their families because of their (Tribal Elders) support to the Government and Army in the fight against terrorism. Indeed, the Security Secretary of the erstwhile FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), Brigadier (Retd.) Mehmood Shah, had stated on May 11, 2017, that the Taliban began targeting Tribal Elders in 2005 after the elders voiced their support for the Government, Army and intelligence agencies. He had observed,
SATP's partial data, based on erratic reporting in the Pakistani media, confirms the killing of at least 194 tribal elders since 2005, in 143 incidents. The first such incident in SATP records took place on May 29, 2005, when former Federal Minister and Senator, Malik Faridullah Khan Wazir, was assassinated, along with two other Tribal Elders, reportedly by four Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists, in the Jandola area of the South Waziristan Agency in erstwhile FATA.
During the peak of the TTP-led militancy in Pakistan, in the eight years between 2008 and 2015, at least 127 Tribal Elders were killed in the tribal areas, accounting for 65.46 per cent of the total of 194 such killings recorded by SATP in nearly 20 years.
Attacks on Tribal Elders and resultant casualties fell thereafter, only to start rising again with the resurgence of TTP's prowess across Pakistan, in particular in the tribal areas. Violence has been increasing again since 2020. Overall terrorist-linked fatalities, which were at 365 in 2019, increased to 506 in 2020, 664 in 2021, 971 in 2022, and 1,502 in 2023. 2024 has already recorded 311 fatalities (data till March 3).
Significantly, when peace-talks were ongoing between the Government and TTP between May and November 2022, there was no attack on Tribal Elders, as a 50-member Jirga (Council) of notable tribal leaders was flown to Kabul for substantive talks. The Jirga consisted of tribal elders from South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Orakzai, Kurram, Khyber, Mohmand, and Bajaur, as well as the Malakand Division. Public representatives, including former Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Engineer Shaukatullah Khan, Senator Dost Mohammad Khan Mehsud, Senator Hilal Mohmand, GG Jamal, etc., were also present. With the collapse of 'official' talks between the Government and TTP on November 28, 2022, the attacks on Tribal Elders commenced again. While no Tribal Elder was killed during the peace-talks phase, at least 13 Tribal Elders have since been killed.
Meanwhile, with the surge in violence, the Army and government again needs the support of Tribal Elders. Accordingly, on February 28, 2024, the Corps Commander, Peshawar, Lieutenant General Sardar Hasan Azhar Hayat met Utmanzai tribal elders from North Waziristan and thanked them for fighting alongside the Army in the 'war against terror'. On the occasion, Hayat stated,
Earlier, on January 28, 2024, a 60-member delegation of Baizai Hassan Khel's elders, under the leadership of Amanullah Mohmand from the Mohmand District of KP, met Governor Haji Ghulam Ali to demand the provision of basic facilities to the tribal people. Governor Ali assured them that the tribal areas would be brought on par with other developed areas of the province 'very soon'.
Given the past record of both the Army and the Government, however, it will be a major challenge for to retain the support of the Tribal Elders. Despite their tribal linkages to different militant groups, the Elders supported the Government in its 'war against terrorism'. Yet, they and their families have suffered immensely at the hands of the militants as a result of the abject failure of the state to provide adequate security. Confronted with an uncertain and insecure future, people and the leaders in the tribal areas may again be forced to come to a modus vivendi with the terrorists, or may come to be trampled upon by both sides in this confrontation between the two elephants in the region, the Army and the TTP.
Telangana: Sustained Dominance Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 27, 2024, Naini Komaraiah alias Komaranna (62), a cadre of the Ashok Dal faction of the Communist Party of India-Marxist-Leninist-New Democracy (CPI-ML-New Democracy-Ashok Dal), was arrested in the Yellandu Mandal (administrative division) of Bhadradri Kothagudem District.
On February 25, 2024, Chhattisgarh Police arrested four suspected cadres of the CPI-Maoist and seized some weapons in Julurupadu Mandal in the Bhadradri Kothagudem District. The Police identified the arrested Maoists as migrant labourers (names not disclosed) from Chhattisgarh, who had come to harvest chillies in Anantaram village under the Julurupadu Mandal.
On February 16, 2024, Police arrested five cadres of the Pedda Chandranna faction of the CPI-ML-New Democracy (CPI-ML-New Democracy-Pedda Chandranna) in the forests near Pusapalli village in the Yellandu Mandal of Bhadradri Kothagudem District. The arrested cadres were identified as Kurasam Vanjaiah aka Ashok, CPI-ML-New Democracy-Pedda Chandranna's 'state committee secretary'; Danasari Sammaiah aka Gopi, 'state committee' member; and armed 'commanders' S. Muthaiah aka Pullanna, Shaik Madar Saheb and Kalakonda Suresh. Police seized a pistol, 16 live .303 rounds, five gelatin sticks, 10 detonators, kit bags and revolutionary literature from them.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 17 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) have already been arrested in the current year (data till March 3, 2024). 69 Naxalites were arrested in 2023, in Telangana, in addition to 41 arrests in 2022. In total, 505 Naxalites have been arrested since June 2, 2014, when the State was formed after the division of Andhra Pradesh.
SFs eliminated two Naxalites in 2023, in addition to three in 2022. A total of 51 Naxalites has been killed since June 2, 2014. No Naxalite fatality has yet been reported in the current year.
Mounting Security Forces (SFs) pressure led to the surrender of two Naxalites in the Mulugu District on February 1, 2024, the lone incident of surrender in the current year (data till March 3, 2024). At least nine Naxalites surrendered through 2023 in eight incidents, in addition to 24 in 10 incidents in 2022. A total of 302 Naxalites has surrendered in 99 incidents since June 2, 2014.
SFs have not suffered a single loss in the State since its formation.
The State has recorded 12 civilian fatalities since June 2, 2014, the last of these reported on November 9, 2022, when a tribal man, Subaka Gopal (55) of Kondapur village in Venkatapuram Mandal of Mulugu District, was killed by CPI-Maoist cadres, who branded him a 'police informer.'
Geographically, Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked fatalities in 2023 were reported from Bhadradri Kothagudem (two Maoists). In 2022, fatalities were reported from Mulugu (one civilian and three Maoists) and Bhadradri Kothagudem (two Maoists). Since the formation of the state, of the total of 51 LWE-linked fatalities, 28 were reported from Bhadradri Kothagudem District (five civilians and 23 Naxalites), 10 from Mulugu District (two civilians and 10 Naxalites), five from Khammam District (four civilians and one Naxalite), two from Komaram Bheem Asifabad District (both Naxalites), two from Warangal-Rural (both Naxalites), one each from Adilabad District (civilian), Hyderabad District (Naxalite), Nalgonda District (Naxalite), and Warangal-Urban (Naxalite).
Meanwhile, the Maoists failed to carry out any incident of arson in 2023, as against one such incident recorded in 2022. The Maoists also did not issue any bandh (shut down strike) call in 2023, as against one such call in 2022. Moreover, overall Maoist-linked incidents fell to 39 in 2023 from 44 in 2022.
SFs foiled Maoist designs and recovered arms and ammunition on 17 occasions in 2023, in addition to 13 such incidents in 2022. The total number of recoveries since June 2, 2014, stands at 136. In the current year, three incidents of arms recovery have already been recorded in the state, so far (data till March 3, 2024).
According to the SATP database, based on underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists in 2023, one District (Bhadradri Kothagudem) was categorised as moderately affected; while seven (Hyderabad, Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Karimnagar, Kumuram Bheem, Mancherial, Mulugu and Warangal Urban), were marginally affected. By comparison, in 2022, two Districts (Bhadradri Kothagudem and Mulugu) were categorised as moderately affected; while four (Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Karimnagar, Khammam and Nizamabad), were marginally affected.
According to a December 8, 2023, report, the Ramagundam Police claimed to have thwarted an attempt by the CPI-Maoist to restore its hold in Telangana's coal belt, by arresting an accused, P. Avinash (29), while he was moving suspiciously in the Ramagundam Area General Manager's Office in Godavarikhani. Ramagundam Police Commissioner Rema Rajeshwari said Avinash, a B.Sc. (Nursing) graduate, used to run his family printing press in his native village. He came in contact with some members of Maoist front organisations and was attracted to the CPI-Maoist ideology a few years ago. He had been sent to Godavarikhani to revive SIKASA [the CPI-Maoist-affiliated Singareni Karmika Samakhya] activities in the coal town on the instructions of Maoist leaders.
More recently, a report dated February 6, 2024, noted that, to make their presence felt and to win the support of the public, Venkatesh, 'secretary' of the 'Jayashankar, Mulugu, Warangal, and Peddapally (JMWP) Division Committee' of the CPI-Maoist, released a letter demanding that the state government make arrangements in full accordance with Adivasi (tribal) customs for the Sammakka Saralamma Jathara (festival honouring the Goddesses Sammakka and Saralamma, celebrated in Telangana) scheduled from February 21 to 24 at Medaram village in Mulugu District. In the letter, the Maoists warned against distributing anything (like laddu or pulihora) other than jaggery, to devotees as prasadam at Medaram village. They also demanded that the government implement special measures, such as ensuring cleanliness standards, maintaining hygiene, and compensating farmers who left their crops to conduct the festival immediately. They added that such compensations should be distributed immediately after the end of the festival.
Regrettably, some areas of neglect remain at the policy level, even as the battle against the Maoists in Telangana continues. At least 19,886 Police posts were vacant in the State as on January 1, 2022, against a sanctioned strength of 82,617 - a deficit of 24.07 per cent - according to the Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D). The police-population ratio (Policemen per hundred thousand population) in the State was 165.88 per 100,000, lower than the sanctioned strength of 218.47, which itself is marginally lower than 220 Policemen per 100,000 population, the benchmark for 'peacetime policing'. Moreover, against the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State at 139, just 122 were in position. Two of 843 Police Stations in the State were without a telephone connection.
In order to assist the State Police, 21 Companies of Central Armed Police Forces [Border Security Force (BSF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), etc.] have been deployed in Telangana.
The Telangana Police has undeniably done extraordinarily well in countering the Maoist threat. Nevertheless, existing gaps in capacities and deployment in the State need urgent attention to ensure that the Maoists are not able to regroup and reestablish their influence in areas of their erstwhile dominance in the State.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia February 26 - March 3, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Doha agreement empowered Taliban, says US Department of State official: On February 29, the spokesperson of the United States (US) Department of State, Matthew Alan Miller, stated that the agreement signed between the US and the de facto administration of Afghanistan (Taliban) in Doha four years ago empowered the group while undermining the Afghan government. He further stated that the agreement paved the way for the empowerment of the Taliban-led Afghanistan, subsequently weakening the Afghan Government's partners and obligating the US to withdraw its troops without a clear strategy for the aftermath. The Khaama Press, March 2, 2024.
Afghanistan poses major threat to Central Asia, says Russian Defence Minister: On February 27, Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, the Russian Defence Minister, stated in a meeting with senior military officials of the country that Afghanistan is considered the biggest threat to Central Asia. Additionally, Shoigu mentioned a 15 per cent increase in the Islamic State fighters and a 20 per cent rise in drug production and trafficking through Central Asian republics. The Khaama Press, February 28, 2024.
Twelve SF personnel died in Manipur since May 3, 2023, says Manipur CM N. Biren Singh: On March 1, Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh stated that in the ongoing violence in Manipur since May 3, 2023, a total of 12 Security Force (SF) personnel lost their lives - nine State Police forces and three central forces personnel - while 167 others sustained injuries - 98 State Police forces and 69 central forces personnel. He said no Government records were lost due to the crisis and said about 80 percent of government records were digitized and Government documents especially at the border town of Moreh were kept in a secure place. North East Now, March 2, 2024.
PFI raised 90 million to train youth for terror activities, says NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) disclosed that accused office-bearers and cadres of the Popular Front of India (PFI) raised INR 90 million from unknown sources between 2011 and 2022 to train its cadres to indulge in unlawful activities. More than half of the amount was deposited through cash in small tranches of INR 50,000 each and there was no audit on these transactions. The Indian Express, March 1, 2024.
Afghan Taliban 'warn TTP' against attacks in Pakistan: The Taliban Government told a delegation led by Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Sami) head, Maulana Hamid-ul-Haq, which went to Kabul on February 26, that it has strictly warned the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leadership against using the Afghan soil for attacks inside Pakistan and noted that such acts have weakened the relations between the two sides. Taliban leaders told the visiting delegates that some four weeks ago, a meeting was called in which TTP leaders like Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, Hafiz Gul Bahadur and others were also in attendance. In the meeting, the TTP leadership was told in unequivocal terms that the attacks inside Pakistan have weakened their relations with the people and the Government of Pakistan. The News, March 2, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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