South Asia Terrorism Portal
Balochistan: Continuing Chaos Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 27, 2023, the Islamabad High Court (IHC) told the Islamabad Federal Capital's Police not to treat Baloch protesters as “enemies”. Justice Miangul Hassan Aurangzeb’s remarks came as he heard a petition filed on December 21, 2023, challenging the arrest of marchers who arrived in the Federal Capital, Islamabad, on foot from Turbat town in the Kech District of Balochistan, and denying them the right to stage a protest in Islamabad against extrajudicial killings as well as enforced disappearances of their loved ones. Expressing his outrage, Justice Aurangzeb asked the Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP, operations) if the order to treat the protesters ‘harshly’ was given by him and declared, “You make some people sit in your lap while you treat others like this… They have come [here]. Let them sit.”
During the hearing, the counsel for the petitioner – organisers of the protest, Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) – disclosed that 34 Baloch protesters were still in custody. Earlier, on December 25, 2023, Police freed 290 Baloch protesters who had been arrested when they attempted to hold a protest in Islamabad on December 21, 2023.
The Baloch protest march started in Turbat town, Kech District, Balochistan, on December 6, 2023, after the alleged extrajudicial killing of a Baloch youth by Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) personnel on November 23, 2023. On that day, CTD claimed to have killed four suspected terrorists in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) near a bus terminal on Pasni Road in Turbat town. However, the family of one of the deceased – Balaach Mola Bakhsh – and members of civil society staged a sit-in at Shaheed Fida Ahmed Chowk, accompanied by the deceased’s body, and alleged that Balaach was taken away by the CTD from his home in the night of October 29. After 22 days, on November 20, a First Information Report (FIR) was registered against Bakhsh by the CTD, claiming that he had been caught in possession of explosives. He was presented before a court, where another 10 days of police remand were granted. His bail plea was scheduled for November 24, 2023, before which he was killed.
The main demand of the protesters was the arrest of the CTD officials involved in the killing, and the formation of a judicial commission for an independent inquiry into the Department’s action.
As the sit-in protest in Turbat against Balaach’s killing did not yield any result, the protestors decided to relocate their sit-in to Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. They concluded the sit-in in Turbat on December 5, 2023, after which they began their march towards Quetta. As things did not move, the protestors started march towards Islamabad and reached Islamabad on December 20. However, they met with brutal force and more than 200 protesters were taken into custody by the Islamabad Police on December 21.
It is pertinent to recall here that in Balochistan, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings by the security forces and their proxies have long been rampant. Victims of enforced disappearances include political workers, journalists, human rights defenders, and students. According to the Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP), more than 7,000 persons have gone ‘missing’ from Balochistan since 2000. However, the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances formed in 2011 with the objective of tracing the missing persons and fixing responsibility on the individuals or organisations responsible for it, posted data on its website claiming that there were just 454 ‘active cases’ of enforced disappearances from Balochistan, as of October 2023.
Further, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), of the 4,700 conflict-linked civilian fatalities recorded in Balochistan since 2004 (data till December 31, 2023), at least 1,469 are attributable to one or another terrorist/insurgent outfit. Of these, 494 civilian killings (300 in the South and 194 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist formations, while Islamist and sectarian extremist formations – primarily Islamic State, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Ahrar-ul-Hind (Liberators of India) – claimed responsibility for another 975 civilian killings, 892 in the North (mostly in and around Quetta) and 83 in the South. The remaining 3,231 civilian fatalities – 1,848 in the South and 1,383 in the North – remain 'unattributed', and are largely believed to have been the handiwork of the Security Forces (SFs) and their death squad proxies.
The state sponsored enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings have led to a spiral of retaliatory attacks and violence targeting the SFs and state establishments in the province, by Baloch insurgents. Civilians believed to be siding with the state machinery, have also been targeted. In this environment of chaos, Islamist terrorist groups have also thrived and even joined the Baloch groups. The major active Baloch insurgent groups include the Baloch National Army (BNA), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA).
According to the SATP database, overall fatalities in Balochistan increased from 406 in 2022 to 466 in 2023, up by 14.77 per cent (data till December 31, 2023). This is the highest number of fatalities in a year since 2016, at 636. Overall fatalities in Balochistan have been on a continuous rise since 2020, after a recent low of 180 in 2019. Balochistan alone accounted for 31.32 per cent of Pakistan’s total of 1,492 terrorism/insurgency-linked fatalities in 2023.
Civilian fatalities in particular have recorded a significant spike in 2023, from 88 in 2022 to 160 in 2023, an increase of 81.81 per cent. The 2023 tally for this category is the highest since 2018, when there were 234 civilian fatalities. After a recent low of 83 in 2019, civilian fatalities have tended to increase, though there was a drop in 2022, with 88 killed, as compared to 111 in 2021.
Non-locals, who are thought to be Army collaborators, face the wrath of Baloch insurgents. These ‘non-locals’ work as spies for SFs, and are also believed to be part of a systematic effort to deny work and benefits to the Baloch population. Baloch insurgent groups such as the BLA, BLF and the Balochistan Republican Army (BRA), among others, began to voice anti-outsider, particularly anti-Punjabi, sentiments in their campaigns in the wake of the military action against the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, leader of the Bugti tribe and President of the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP), in a military operation in the Chalgri area of the Bhamboor Hills of Dera Bugti District, on August 26, 2006. Further, many of the ‘outsiders’ are engaged on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects and are targeted because Baloch insurgents fear that CPEC will convert the Baloch people into minorities in their own homeland. Indeed, CPEC projects principally employ workers brought in from outside the province, overwhelmingly from Punjab.
According to partial data compiled by SATP, a total of 254 ‘non-locals’ have been killed in Balochistan since August 26, 2006, (data till December 31, 2023). Of these, 198 were Punjabis. Other non-locals also fell to the ethnic collateral damage, including 37 Sindhis. The ethnic identity of the remaining 19 was unspecified. Significantly, most of the Punjabi settler killings were recorded in South Balochistan, which accounts for 167 of the total of 198 such killings (principally in Bolan, Kech, Gwadar, Panjgur, Khuzdar, Sibi and Lasbela Districts); and 31 in North Balochistan (mostly in Kalat, Nushki, Quetta and Mustang Districts). The overwhelming concentration of such killings in the South is because of the presence and dominance of Baloch insurgent groups in this region.
Though SF fatalities in 2023 saw an eight per cent decline, down to 186 in 2023, as against 202 in 2022 (the highest in a year since 2000, when SATP started compiling data on conflict in Pakistan), the toll still remains very high. The 2023 number is the second highest recorded in this category during this period. The third highest of 177 was recorded way back in 2012.
Meanwhile, terrorist fatalities continued to rise. From a recent low of 37 in 2020 they jumped to 116 in 2022 and 120 in 2023.
Other parameters of violence also indicate that the overall security situation in Balochistan has deteriorated significantly in 2023. Overall terrorism-related incidents increased from 271 in 2022 to 278 in 2023, the highest in a year since 2015, at 444. Incidents of killing increased from 160 in 2022 to 168 in 2023, the highest since 2015, at 204. The number of suicide attacks and resultant fatalities increased from three and 13, respectively, in 2022, to five and 70, respectively, in 2023. The tally for suicide attacks in 2023 (five) is the highest since 2019, when there were six suicide attacks. However, in terms of resultant fatalities in such attacks, the 2023 tally (70) is the highest since 2018, when there were 209 fatalities.
Islamist groups, mainly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its allied groups have also been active in the province. Reports about a TTP-Baloch alliance appeared to receive some confirmation when TTP 'spokesperson' Mohammad Khurasani congratulated the Baloch insurgent groups for their twin attacks on Panjgur and Nuskhi Army camps on February 2, 2023, stating,
The growing nexus between the Baloch insurgents and the TTP is also visible in the absorption of two Baloch groups into the TTP fold. On April 12, 2023, the TTP claimed that a group from Quetta District, led by Asim Baloch, and another from Kalat District, led Akram Baloch, had joined its ranks. Though the development is worrisome for the security agencies and the government, it is not new. Indeed, a local Baloch jihadist group, led by Mazar Baloch from Makran, Balochistan, had joined the TTP on December 23, 2022, as well. Ustad Aslam Baloch's group from Nushki District was the first Baloch group from Balochistan to join the TTP in June 2022.
The insurgents also target the economic interests of the Pakistani state, as Islamabad is widely and rightly believed to be exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources. Baloch insurgents carried out at least 255 attacks targeting Gas/Oil installations and tankers in Balochistan, which resulted in the loss of 36 lives and 43 injuries. Attacks targeting this source of energy have a significant detrimental impact on Pakistan's economy, a reality the Baloch insurgents are well aware of, and seek to leverage.
The CPEC projects in the province have been a major bone of contention between Pakistani state and Baloch insurgents. The Baloch resentment towards the CPEC project since its inception in 2013 is that both the civilian population and insurgents believe that CPEC is part of a 'strategic design' by China to loot resources. The USD 62 billion CPEC is a massive series of projects that includes a network of highways, railways and energy infrastructure, spanning the entire country. CPEC is a flagship project in China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Baloch groups have carried out attacks directly targeting Chinese nationals engaged in economic activities. According to partial data compiled by SATP, since July 19, 2007, at least 14 attacks directly targeting Chinese nationals have been recorded in Pakistan (12 in Balochistan and two in Sindh), resulting in 79 deaths (data till December 31, 2023). The dead included 10 Chinese nationals, 13 Pakistani SF personnel, 41 Pakistani civilians and 12 attackers. Another, 53 persons, including six Chinese nationals, were injured in these attacks. Most recently, on August 13, 2023, terrorists attacked a convoy of vehicles belonging to SFs and Chinese engineers near the Faqir Colony Bridge in Gwadar city (Gwadar District). The BLA, which took responsibility for the attack, claimed that 11 SF personnel and four Chinese nationals were killed in the attack. Jeeyand Baloch declared that BLA's Majeed Brigade, its 'suicide bomber squad', was behind the attack and stated, further,
Though caretaker Prime Minister (PM) Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar on December 26, 2023, asserted that the welfare and prosperity of the people of Balochistan were amongst his Government’s top priorities, for those who know Islamabad’s longstanding approach towards Baloch people, this is nothing more than a rhetoric. In fact, Islamabad remains hellbent on crushing the legitimate grievances of the Baloch people and exploiting this resource rich province to benefit other parts of the country – particularly Punjab – while the people of this beleaguered province remain deprived of most of the basics, and have the worst developmental profile in the country.
Assam: State Consolidation Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 29, 2023, a tripartite Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) was signed between the pro-talks faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-PTF), Government of India (GoI) and the Assam Government, in the presence of Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah and Assam Chief Minister (CM) Himanta Biswa Sarma, at New Delhi. A 29-member delegation of the ULFA-PTF, including 16 ULFA-PTF and 13 civil society members, led by ULFA-PTF ‘chairperson’ Arabinda Rajkhowa, signed the agreement. With this MoS, ULFA-PTF has formally agreed to shun violence and join the mainstream. Sources stated that the peace deal encompasses a financial package, new land reservation measures, rights for Assam's indigenous communities and also a review of the citizenship list.
Terming the event a “golden day for Assam”, UHM Amit Shah noted,
Prior to the signing of the MoS with ULFA-PTF, a proposed draft of the tripartite agreement was shared with the ULFA-PTF leadership. Subsequently, on October 25, 2023, the top leadership discussed the proposed draft with other senior leaders and more than 200 cadres from across Assam, in its general council meeting at Kaziranga in Golaghat District, led by Arabinda Rajkhowa and ‘General Secretary’ Anup Chetia. Chetia disclosed that the meeting accepted the proposed draft “after some additions and omissions” and submitted it to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs and Prime Minister's Office “for final approval”. A series of talks with officials-concerned in the Central government took place after the ULFA-PTF delegation arrived in Delhi on December 26, before the signing of the pact.
Earlier, on July 6, 2023, around 1,182 cadres, belonging to as many as eight Adivasi militant groups from Assam, laid down 304 sophisticated arms and 1,460 rounds of ammunition, at a ceremony held at the Srimanata Shankardeva Kalakshetra at Guwahati in the Kamrup (Metro) District of Assam. The Adivasis are tribal groups indigenous to other states, who were brought into Assam by the British as plantation workers in the late 19th Century. The militants who surrendered belonged to the All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), the Amrit Beck faction of AANLA (AANLA-AB), Birsa Commando Force (BCF), Badal Tudu faction of BCF (BCF-BT), Santhal Tiger Force (STF), Adivasi Cobra Force (ACF)/Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), Chunka Tudu faction of ACMA (ACMA-CT), and the Adivasi People’s Army (APA).
Similarly, on April 27, 2023, a tripartite MoS was signed between the Centre, Assam Government and representatives of the Dimasa National Liberation Army (DNLA) in Delhi. With this, 168 DNLA cadres laid down arms. Under the agreement, DNLA agreed to abjure violence, surrender all arms and ammunition, disband their armed groups, vacate all camps occupied by DNLA cadres and join the mainstream.
Significantly, the GoI has signed at least nine peace and border related agreements in different states in the Northeast over the past five years, to end extremism and bring peace to the this long-troubled region. The other principal agreements with Assam-based groups included:
During these five years, around 7,000 insurgents have surrendered in Assam.
These developments have certainly impacted the security situation in the state. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) overall fatalities have declined from 783 (531 civilians, 72 Security Force personnel and 180 insurgents) in 1998, to eight (three civilians and five insurgents) in 2023. Indeed, overall fatalities have remained in single digit since 2019, with an aberration in 2021, at 29 (10 civilians and 19 insurgents). Overall fatalities were in two digits between 2015 and 2018. Between 1992 and 2014, annual fatalities remained continuously in three digits.
Nevertheless, concerns persist. Despite repeated appeals by the Government, the ULFA-I has remained outside the peace process. In fact, there have been several reports of a sudden rise in the ULFA-I activities in Assam. The outfit triggered at least three grenade explosions in Upper Assam, on November 22, December 9 and December 14, in Tinsukia, Sivasagar and Jorhat Districts, respectively, prompting the Police to initiate a state-wide operation, resulting in multiple arrests, prominently including:
Moreover, some new groups have come into existence.
On July 28, 2023, ‘commander-in-chief’ Sanjay Engti and a cadre, identified as Rajesh Phangso, of a newly floated extremist group, United Peoples Front of Karbi Longri (UPFKL) were arrested by the Assam Police in a joint operation with the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Karbi Anglong District. One 9mm pistol with a magazine and four rounds of live ammunition, one .22 pistol with a magazine and five rounds of live ammunition, three hand grenades and two detonators were recovered from them. 41 UPFKL letterheads were also recovered.
On February 1, 2023, a new militant outfit, the Boro Liberation Army (BLA), emerged in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) of Assam, demanding a separate ‘Bodoland’ state.
On October 1, 2023, Gyanendra Pratap Singh, Director General of Police (DGP), Assam, announced that the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) had been extended in four Districts of the State – Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Sivasagar and Charaideo – for another six months, while it was withdrawn from four Districts – Jorhat, Golaghat, Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao – with effect from October 1.
The signing of the peace accords during the current and previous years has helped control the insurgencies in Assam. The state’s security situation has significantly improved and the peace agreements brought greater stability. The peace agreement with ULFA-PTF takes this process further. However, the bigger challenge remains in the form of ULFA-I. Moreover, the region continuous to suffer from several developmental deficits and is riddled with tribal rivalries, creating significant conflict potential which could be actualized in the event of political mismanagement. The situation in Manipur is a case in point.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia December 25-31, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
CHT
India
Kerala
Manipur
Odisha
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Taliban fighters in 2023 killed more than 20 Pakistani nationals involved in attacks across Afghanistan, says Taliban official: On December 30, a senior Taliban official stated that more than 20 Pakistani nationals were killed "in operations by security forces" between January and December of 2023. Additionally, the Taliban's appointed defense minister, Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, claimed that scores of Tajik nationals and "hundreds of Pakistanis" were also arrested for their alleged roles in attacks against religious clerics, the public, and mosques during this period. Mujahid asserted that there has been a 90 percent decrease in attacks by an Islamic State group affiliate in the past year. WIO News, December 31, 2023.
Interior Ministry capacity increased from 150,000 to over 200,000 personnel: The Ministry of Interior’s spokesman, Abdul Matin Qani, said on December 29 that the capacity of the Interior Ministry has increased from 150,000 to more than 200,000 personnel and that all forces and personnel have been enrolled based on the needs in civilian and military departments. Qani said that efforts are underway to attract fresh forces from various provinces. TOLO News, December 30, 2023.
At least 55 foreign terrorists among 76 neutralised in Jammu and Kashmir in 2023, says DGP R. R. Swain: A total of 76 terrorists, including 55 foreigners, were neutralised, 291 terrorist associates arrested and 201 over ground workers booked under the Public Safety Act in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) this year, Director General of Police (DGP) R. R. Swain said on December 30. DGP Swain further said that only 31 local terrorists, an all-time low, are left in the Union Territory, while the recruitment of locals into militancy has witnessed a drop of 80 per cent this year. Daily Excelsior, December 31, 2023.
Peace accord signed between ULFA-PTF, Union and Assam Government: On December 29, 2023, a tripartite ‘Memorandum of Settlement’ was signed between the Pro-Talks faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-PTF), Union Government and the Assam Government in the presence of Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah and Assam Chief Minister (CM) Himanta Biswa Sarma in New Delhi. Shah said, “Except one person (Paresh Baruah) who is leading the anti-talks faction of ULFA, all the founding members of the outfit were here in Delhi today... They have assured us that ULFA will be disbanded, they will leave the designated camps where they were staying (after coming forward for talks in 2011), they will deposit their arms and 726 cadres will join the mainstream, taking total surrenders in Assam up to 8,200”. The Hindu, December 30, 2023.
India seeks extradition of 26/11 Mumbai terror attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed from Pakistan: India has sought extradition of Hafiz Saeed, the ‘founder’ of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and mastermind of 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks. India placed the extradition request to Pakistan. Hafiz Saeed has been in Pakistan jail since 2019 after being convicted for several years in multiple terror finance cases along with some other leaders of the banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD). Mint, December 28, 2023.
Government bans Masarat Alam faction of MLJK under anti-terror law: A faction of Muslim League Jammu Kashmir, led by separatist leader Masarat Alam Bhat, was on December 27 declared a banned organisation by the Government under the stringent anti-terror law. The ban comes as a response to the outfit’s involvement in anti-national and secessionist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, with the intent to create a reign of terror in the country, the Union Home Ministry said. Daily Excelsior, December 28, 2023.
TeH banned by UMHA for 5 years: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on December 31 declared pro-Pakistan separatist group Tehreek-e-Hurriyat (TeH), founded by late hardline separatist Syed Ali Shah Geelani, as a banned organisation for the next five years. The action, announced by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, is a response to the group’s involvement in fomenting terrorism and spreading anti-India sentiment within the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The TeH, previously led by the late Syed Ali Shah Geelani and succeeded by Masarat Alam Bhat, has been known for its anti-India and pro-Pakistan stance. Bhat, currently incarcerated, also headed the banned organisation, Muslim League of Jammu and Kashmir, which was declared unlawful earlier on December 27. The TeH was formed by Geelani in 2004 after he stepped out of the moderate Hurriyat faction led by Mirwaiz Umer Farooq. Daily Excelsior, January 1, 2024
At least 566 terrorists neutralised in 18,736 IBOs in 2023, says report: At least 566 terrorists were neutralised during 18,736 intelligence-based operations (IBO) executed by Security Forces across the country in 2023. The IBOs also resulted in the arrest of 5,161 terrorists. Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and Sindh emerged as focal points for extensive operations. The Express Tribune, December 30, 2023.
TTP aimed to control former FATA, says official: Strongly refuting the Afghanistan Foreign Minister's claims that Pakistan withdrew from a deal with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) at the last minute, a high-ranking Pakistani official, under the condition of anonymity, disclosed that the terrorist outfit sought to assert control over parts of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He contended that the only remaining point of contention was regarding the merger of the former FATA. The Express Tribune, December 28, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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