South Asia Terrorism Portal
Sindh: Resurfacing Disorders Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 14, 2024, the caretaker Sindh Chief Minister (CM) Justice (Retd) Maqbool Baqar expressed his distress over “the surge in crimes in the major cities and rural areas” which include “targeted killing and extortion among other serious crimes”. He added that “Journalists, lawyers, doctors, businessmen, and other professionals face a bigger threat to their lives and property, but the law enforcement apparatus continues to be complacent.”
Meanwhile, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh recorded 41 terrorism-linked fatalities (17 civilians, 12 Security Force, SF personnel and 12 militants) in 2023, as compared to 21 fatalities (12 civilians, two SF personnel and seven militants) in 2022, an increase of 95.23 per cent. The fatalities in 2022 were the lowest in a year since 2000, when SATP started compiling data on conflicts in Pakistan. Significantly, on year-on-year basis, overall fatalities had declined in Sindh between 2014 and 2022, with the exception of 2020. The highest terrorism-related fatalities in the province were reported in 2013, at 1,656.
Civilian fatalities jumped from 12 in 2022 to 17 in 2023, an increase of 41.66 per cent. Of the 17 civilian victims in 2023, five lost their lives in five incidents of targeted killing. In 2022, four civilians were killed in three incidents of targeted killing.
There was a six-fold increase in the number of SF personnel killed, from two in 2022 to 12 in 2023. A high of 148 SF fatalities was reported in 2013. However, according to the performance report presented to the Sindh Police chief Rifat Mukhtar Raja on January 2, 2024, at least 21 Police personnel from the Sindh Police lost their lives in the line of duty in encounters during coordinated efforts against street crimes and terrorism in 2023. No further details were provided regrading how many those killings were linked to incidents of terrorism.
According to the SATP database, terrorist fatalities also increased from seven in 2022 to 12 in 2023. A maximum of 315 terrorists were killed in 2014.
There were two major incidents (each involving at least three fatalities) in 2023. In the night of February 17, 2023, a group of suicide attackers stormed into the Karachi Police Chief’s building in the Shahrah-e-Faisal area of the city. At least five terrorists and four others, including two rangers and one Policeman, were killed and 18 people were injured in the attack and subsequent operation. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. The other major incident was on July 26, 2023, when unidentified assailants opened fire on the car of Sindh Member of Provincial Assembly (MPA) Muhammad Aslam Abro in Phase 7 of the Defence Housing Authority in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, in which three persons, including Abro’s brother and nephew, were killed, while another person sustained injuries. The lawmaker, however, escaped the attack as he was not travelling in the vehicle. The victims were travelling to Jacobabad from their residence located near Khayaban-e-Shamsheer.
There was one major incident in 2022. On April 26, at least five persons, including three Chinese nationals, their Pakistani driver and a security guard, were killed when a women suicide bomber blew herself up near a van transporting Chinese nationals from the Karachi University Hostel to the Confucius Institute in Karachi.
There were eight incidents of explosion in 2023, resulting in 12 fatalities, in addition to 10 such incidents in 2022, which also resulted in 12 fatalities. One suicide attack (February 17, mentioned above) was reported in 2023. 2022 also recorded one suicide attack (April 26, mentioned above).
Karachi remained the epicentre of terrorism in the province, as in previous years. Out of 29 Districts in Sindh, Karachi alone reported 37 of 41 fatalities in the whole year. The remaining four fatalities were reported from Qambar Shahdadkot, Malir, Shaheed Benazirabad and Thatta Districts. In 2022, out of 21 fatalities reported in the Province, Karachi alone had recorded 19. The remaining two fatalities were reported from Jacobabad and Jamshoro Districts.
Apart from Islamist terrorist groups, including TTP, Sindhi separatist groups, such as the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) and Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA), remained violently active. On August 1, 2023, SRA shot dead Mullah Sardar Hussain Arain, a leading figure of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), the front organisation of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), in the Qazi Ahmed town of Shaheed Benazirabad District. Similarly, on February 29, SRA shot dead Syed Khalid Raza, former ‘commander’ of Al Badr, outside his residence at Block-7 of Gulistan-i-Jauhar town in Karachi. Syed Khalid Raza was the deputy director of the Darul Arqam Schools in the Karachi region. SRA claimed responsibility for the killing through its Telegram channel, describing Raza as an operative of the religious extremist terrorist Al-Badr and an instrument of Pakistani state agencies.
Meanwhile, the Sindhi nationalist groups continued with their protest against state atrocities against people and groups associated with the Sindhi Nationalist Movement. On the occasion of the 120th birth anniversary of Sindhi nationalist leader Ghulam Murtaza Syed, the Jeay Sindh Freedom Movement (JSFM) held a grand rally in the Sann Town of Jamshoro District. During the rally, the workers carried banners and placards against the forced conversion of Sindhi Hindu girls and the enforced disappearance in Sindh, of political activists from Sindh and Balochistan. Participants in the rally shouted slogans against the ‘occupation’ by the army. Messages on banners held by people in the rally included, "Stop Enforced Disappearances of Sindhi Baloch and Pashtoons", "Stop Forcible Conversion of Sindhi Hindu Girls", "Stop Transfer of 52,000 acres land of Sindh to Paki Army," "Long Live Sindhudesh" and "Long Live Sain GM Syed” [Ghulam Murtaza Syed was the founding fathers of modern Sindh nationalism].
In order to supress their movement, the Government persists with its policy of enforced disappearances. On November 19, a Sindh High Court (SHC) bench expressed disappointment over Police performance while hearing petitions for the recovery of missing persons. The bench reprimanded Investigation Officers (IOs) over lack of progress in the cases and warned of punitive action against the IOs over failure in tracing the missing citizens. According to Pakistan’s Commission of Enquiry on Enforced Disappearances (COIED), Sindh accounted for a total of 1,759 cases of missing persons between March 1, 2011, (the date of inception of the Commission), and January 31, 2023. According to the Commission, of these 1,759 persons, 1,129 were traced – 61 dead bodies, 265 in prisons, 41 in internment centre and 762 returned home. The Commission ‘deleted’ cases of another 464 missing persons, claiming that these were “closed due to not being cases of enforced disappearances, incomplete address, withdrawal by complainants, non-prosecution, etc.” Thus, according to the commission, a total of 1,593 cases were ‘disposed of’, leaving 166 cases ‘under investigation’.
Meanwhile, radical Islamist groups continue to target religious minorities, including the Ahmadis. Some of the attacks during 2023 targeting Ahmadis included:
Hindu and Christian minorities have been confronted with a sustained campaign of abduction and rape of women for forced conversion at the hands of Islamic fundamentalists. On January 16, 2023, United Nation (UN) experts expressed alarm at the reported rise in abductions, forced marriages and conversions of underage girls and young women from religious minorities in Pakistan and called for immediate efforts to curtail the practices and ensure justice for victims. The experts observed,
The Pakistan-based Aurat Foundation and the Movement for Solidarity and Peace estimate that “every year, 1,000 women and girls are abducted, forcibly converted and then married off to their abductors.” These women are from the minority Christian and Hindu communities. The latest documented victim of abduction and forced conversion was a minor Hindu girl Nazia, daughter of Baadal Bheel, who was abducted and converted to Islam by Babar Ali in the Larkana District of Sindh on January 14, 2024.
The security situation in Sindh deteriorated through 2023 and, given the present chaotic social and economic conditions across the country, is unlikely to witness any improvement in the near future.
Jharkhand: Risks amidst decline Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Orchestrating their first act of violence in the current year, on January 10, 2024, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres shot dead their former comrade Nelson Bhengra near his house in West Singhbhum District, accusing him of being a ‘police informer’. Bhengra, a resident of Samtha village in Jeraikela, which falls under the jurisdiction of the Saranda Forest Division, was once active in subversive activities in the Saranda area. This is the lone incident of killing recorded in 2024, thus far (data till January 21).
Three other violent incidents (all of arson) have been reported in 2024.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Jharkhand recorded a total of 33 Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related fatalities in 2023, up from 21 in 2022, an increase of 57.14 per cent. A high of 200 fatalities were recorded in 2000, according to SATP data available since March 6, 2000.
14 civilians were killed through 2023 in Jharkhand as against six such killings in 2022. The 2022 fatalities were lowest in this category, since March 6, 2000. A high of 79 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2011, and a total of 823 such killings have been reported since March 6, 2000.
Fatalities in the Security Forces (SFs) category have also registered a spike. Five SF personnel were killed in 2023 as against two in 2022. A low of two SF fatalities was recorded twice, in 2020 and 2022, though a high of 77 fatalities was been recorded in this category in 2002. A total of 546 such killings have been reported since March 6, 2000.
On the other hand, the number of Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) killed increased marginally from 13 in 2022 to 14 in 2023.
The SF:Maoist kill ratio, though it remained in favour of the SFs, dropped to 1:2.8 in 2023, from 1:6.5 in 2022. The overall kill ratio since March 6, 2000, favoured the SFs at 1:1.43, and the most favourable ratio was recorded in 2020, at 1:9.
SFs arrested 144 Naxalites in 62 incidents of arrest in 2023. 195 Naxalites were arrested in 99 such incidents in 2022.
Some other parameters were also indicative of some resurgence in Maoist activities in 2023. The number of explosions carried out by the Naxalites in the state increased from 12 in 2022 to 26 in 2023. Incidents of arson also increased from nine in 2022 to 13 in 2023.
The number of Districts from where killings were reported also increased in 2023. Out of a total of 24 Districts in Jharkhand, fatalities were reported from eight in 2023 – West Singhbhum (19); Chatra (six); Palamu and Gumla (two each); Bokaro, Hazaribagh, Latehar, and Ranchi (one each). Seven Districts recorded such fatalities in 2022 – Latehar (six); West Singhbhum (four); Khunti and Lohardaga (three each); Ranchi and Seraikela-Kharsawan (two each) and Giridih (one).
Meanwhile, an analysis of overground and underground LWE activities in the state also indicates an widening of the areas from where activities were reported. According to the SATP database, Naxalite activities were reported in 17 of a total of 24 districts in 2023. West Singhbhum District fell into the ‘highly affected’ category; seven districts — Bokaro, Chatra, Gumla, Hazaribagh, Latehar, Palamu, and Ranchi — were 'moderately affected’; and nine districts — Dumka, East Singhbhum, Garhwa, Giridih, Khunti, Koderma, Lohardaga, Simdega, and Ramgarh — were 'marginally affected.’ By comparison, in 2022, LWE activities were reported from 11 districts. Latehar, West Singhbhum, Khunti, Lohardaga, Seraikela-Kharsawan, Ranchi and Giridih, were categorized as ‘moderately affected’; while Palamu, Hazaribagh, Bokaro, and Gumla were in the ‘marginally affected’ category.
Various reports also suggest Naxalite efforts to reestablish their influence.
According to a July 28, 2023, report, while Police and central forces were trying to flush out the CPI-Maoist by carrying out special operations against them in the Kolhan and Porahat Forest divisions in West Singhbhum District, the Maoists resorted to poster campaigns in the district. Issued by the CPI-Maoist, the posters were found stuck on a wall and on trees at Jorapokhar village along the Sonua-Lonjo Road under the Sonua Police Station area, about 130 kilometres away from Jamshedpur, on July 27, 2023. The posters read that ‘boobytraps’ in the form of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) would not be removed from the Kolhan and Porahat Forest divisions unless the administration withdrew forward camps of paramilitary forces from the area. The posters also announced that CPI-Maoist Maoist would observe a ‘martyrs’ week’ from July 28 to August 3.
Further, according to an October 8, 2023, report, the Jharkhand government was monitoring five organisations for their suspected links with CPI-Maoist. These organisations included the Central Jan Sangharsh Samiti working in Gumla and Latehar districts; the Jharkhand Krantikari Mazdoor Union working in the districts of Bokaro, Dhanbad, East Singhbhum, and West Singhbhum; the Anti-Displacement Jan Vikas Andolan working in East Singhbhum, Giridih, and Bokaro; the Jharkhand Jan Sangharsh Morcha working in Bokaro; and the Jharkhand Jan Adhikar Mahasabha working in the entire state of Jharkhand. These organisations are suspected to have connections with the Maoists and were becoming a hindrance in the eradication of extremism and in the execution of development programmes.
On the positive side, the State saw a fading influence of the People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI),Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC) and other CPI-Maoist splinters.
Further, overall LWE-related incidents dropped from 197 in 2022 to 172 in 2023, in Jharkhand.
Indeed, on November 23, 2023, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren declared that the state Police and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were in the concluding stages of eliminating the LWE menace in the state. Earlier, on April 29, 2023, Soren had stated that the LWE movement was on its last legs and the morale of security personnel fighting the menace was high.
Amidst the campaign against the Naxalites in the state, deficits in the Police force, nonetheless, still endure. According to the latest data provided by the Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D), the State had a police-population ratio (policemen per hundred thousand population), as on January 1, 2022, of 162.73, significantly lower than the sanctioned strength of 213.75, though higher than the national average of 152.80. The ratio declined from 167.59 per 100,000, on January 1, 2021, when the national average was 152.51. Similarly, the number of Police personnel per 100 square kilometers of area, was 79.01, significantly lower than the sanctioned strength of 103.78, though higher than the national average of 63.70. The ratio has declined marginally from 80.29 on January 1, 2021, when the national average was 62.96. According to BPR&D data, there was a vacancy of 19,777 personnel, against the sanctioned strength of 82,854 in the State. Moreover, of a sanctioned strength of 149 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 36 posts remained vacant, considerably weakening the executive direction of the Force.
Despite falling trends in violence across the country, a significant combat zone still remains in Jharkhand, where the Naxalites continue in their efforts to regain and expand their lost areas of influence. As several challenges remain, intensive and aggressive SF operations are needed in the affected areas, to foil the Maoists’ attempts at revival.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 15-21, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Manipur
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Country to be free from menace of Naxalism in three years, says UHM Amit Shah: Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah, on January 21, asserted that the country will be free from the menace of Naxalism [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] in the next three years and directed to expedite development activities in remote areas affected by the ultras. Reviewing the Naxal situation in Chhattisgarh, Shah also directed the Security Forces (SFs) to financially choke the ultras. He also directed the officials to prepare a blueprint to end Naxalism. News 18, January 22, 2024.
'Situation in Jammu and Kashmir is under control', says Army Chief General Manoj Pande: On January 15 Chief of Army Staff General Manoj Pande said that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir is under control but there has been an uptick in terrorist activities in the southern region of Pir Panjal and Rajouri-Poonch over the last few months. General Pande said, "The situation in Jammu and Kashmir is under control. But in the past few months, there has been an increase in terrorist activities in the southern region of Pir Panjal and Rajouri-Poonch." Daily Excelsior, January 17, 2024.
At least nine persons killed as Pakistan hits terrorist hideouts inside Iran: A least nine persons were killed as Pakistan struck terrorist hideouts in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province in the morning of January 18, less than 48 hours after Iran violated its airspace. According to a statement issued by Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), "hideouts used by terrorist organisations namely Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF)" were struck in an intelligence-based operation codenamed 'Marg Bar Sarmachar'. Dawn, January 19, 2024.
Two children killed and three women injured as Iran lunches cross border attack inside Balochistan: At least two children were killed and three women critically injured as Iran launched attacks in Pakistan on January 16 targeting the bases of a terrorist outfit Jaish al-Adl in the border town of Panjgur District in Balochistan. "Two key strongholds of the Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jaish al-Adl) terrorist group in Pakistan" were "specifically targeted and successfully demolished by a combination of missile and drone attacks", Dawn reported quoting Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency. Dawn, January 17, 2024.
JuA blames TTP chief for the killing of its chief Omar Khalid Khorasani: The Tehreek-e-Talban Pakistan (TTP) faction, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) blamed TTP chief, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud of killing JuA slain leader, Omar Khalid Khorasani. A statement issued by JuA member Asad Mansoor makes a series of accusation against Noor Wali Mehsud and his entourage, including demoting Omar Mukarram Khorasani and Sarbakaf Mohmand in order to silence their requests of investigating the death of Omar Khalid Khorasani, occurred in August 2022 in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan. Asad Mansoor also accuses Noor Wali Mehsud of conspiring against Hakimullah Mehsud the same way he did with Omar Khalid Khorasani'. The Khorasan Diary, January 18, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend