South Asia Terrorism Portal
SFs under Fire Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On October 19, 2023, three Army personnel were killed in the North Waziristan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
On October 8, 2023, two Army personnel, including Major Syed Ali Raza Shah, were killed in the Sambaza area of Zhob District in Balochistan. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed the attack.
On October 4, 2023, two Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and three sustained injuries when a Security Force (SF) vehicle in a convoy was targeted with explosives in the Chaghi Bazar of Chagai District in Balochistan.
On September 28, 2023, four soldiers were killed during a clash with infiltrating terrorists along the Pak-Afghan border near Sambaza in the Zhob District of Balochistan.
With more than two months still left in 2023, the year has, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), already recorded the highest number of SF fatalities in Pakistan in a year since 2014, when there were 508 such fatalities. After reaching a recent low of 137 in 2019, SF fatalities have been on a continuous rise, even as the number of attacks on SFs have increased.
Attacks on SFs in Pakistan: 2000*-2023*
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Total
The surge in attacks on SFs and the resultant fatalities coincide with the increase in the power and influence of the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan after the signing of the Doha Agreement of February 2020, and gained further momentum with the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul in August 2021. With the collapse of the talks between the TTP and the Pakistan Government on November 28, 2022, there was a significant escalation of attacks on SFs. Some of the prominent attacks on SFs in Pakistan in 2023 include:
August 31: At least nine soldiers were killed and 20 sustained injuries when a suicide bomber riding a motorcycle blew himself up on a military convoy in the Mali Khel area of Jani Khel in the Bannu District of KP. The Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction of TTP, through its propaganda wing, Al Amar Media from North Waziristan, claimed that an affiliated cell of the group, the ‘Sufyan Karawan’, carried out the suicide attack.
August 22: At least 10 SF personnel were killed when their convoy came under terrorist attack in the Tiarza area of South Waziristan District in KP. The TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
August 22: Six soldiers and four terrorists were killed, while two terrorists were injured in an exchange of fire in the Asman Manza area of South Waziristan District in KP.
July 12: Nine Army soldiers, five terrorists and one civilian were killed during a clash, when terrorists attacked the Zhob garrison in Zhob town (Zhob District), Balochistan.
March 6: Nine persons, including eight Policemen and one civilian, were killed while 13 others were injured in a suicide attack on a Balochistan Constabulary van on the Kambri Bridge in the Dhadar tehsil (revenue unit) of the Kacchi District in Balochistan.
February 17: Five terrorists and four persons including two rangers and one Policeman were killed and 18 people were injured in an operation when terrorists stormed into the Karachi Police Chief’s office building in the city’s Shahrah-e-Faisal area. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
January 30: At least 84 persons, including 27 Policemen, were killed and another 220 were injured in a suicide blast inside a mosque in the Police Lines area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. Two TTP leaders, Sarbakaf Mohmand and Omar Mukaram Khurasani, claimed that the attack was “revenge” for the death of the chief of TTP’s splinter group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), Khalid Khorasani, in the Barmal District of the Paktika Province in Afghanistan, on August 7, 2022.
A report released by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on March 31, 2023, claimed that the militants who were carrying out attacks inside Pakistan had obtained United Sates (US) weapons left behind in Afghanistan. The influx of US weapons has boosted the military capabilities of TTP and the Baloch separatist groups. This influx of weapons has caused "a surge in violence (in Pakistan) over the past two years," the report added. Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher who tracks the TTP, asserted that the outlawed group's access to sophisticated combat weapons has had a "terrifying" impact, especially on the lesser-equipped police force, in Pakistan.
Moreover, speculation about a TTP-Baloch alliance appeared to receive some confirmation when TTP 'spokesperson' Mohammad Khurasani congratulated the Baloch insurgent groups for their (Baloch Liberation Army, BLA's) February 2, 2023, twin attacks on Panjgur and Nuskhi Army camps, declaring,
Indeed, immediately after the twin attacks, Pakistan's then Federal Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid, citing intelligence reports, told the media on February 3, 2023,
Faran Jeffrey, a London-based security analyst, noted that relations with the TTP had helped Baloch militant groups "drastically upgrade their capabilities" with the addition of suicide squad operations and suicide bombings. He further observed,
Inputs indicate that TTP has provided bases to the Baloch rebels in the Barmal District of Afghanistan's eastern province of Paktika, which is adjacent to Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal region, the TTP's stronghold. The growing tactical alliance between the TTP and the Baloch groups has coincided with a sharp uptick in attacks against Pakistani SFs in tribal areas in recent months.
Significantly, when the US pulled its forces out from Afghanistan in 2021, it left behind around USD 7 billion worth of military equipment and weapons, including firearms, communications gear, and even armoured vehicles. The Afghan Taliban seized the weapons during the chaotic US withdrawal.
On September 8, 2023, the Pakistan Foreign Office (FO) expressed concerns over the "advanced weapons" being used by terrorists operating out of Afghanistan, in attacks in Pakistan, particularly on its security agencies. "These modern weapons have fallen into the hands of terrorists in Afghanistan who are using these [weapons] to attack Pakistan and its security agencies," said FO Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch.
Meanwhile, on October 13,2023, Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar, asserted that the state of Pakistan was powerful enough to fight TTP even for the next 100 years. When asked about the impediments to talks with TTP, the Prime Minister said the biggest obstacle was that no one was willing to talk to them. “We don’t have any intention to talk with TTP,” he said, adding that the writ of the state would be established at all costs.
With the Government ruling out possibility of any talks with TTP, the most active and destructive terror outfit fighting against the state with established links with other active terror formations, attacks on SFs are likely to grow. The SFs can also be expected to intensify their operations driving up terrorism-related fatalities in Pakistan, in the months to come.
NSCN-IM: Stalled talks, increasing activities Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On October 14, 2023, a ‘lance corporal’ of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), Namleuku Zeme, and an Over Ground Worker of the group, Langang Gangsa, were arrested in a joint operation launched by the Assam Rifles and Arunachal Pradesh Police at Chop village in the Longding District of Arunachal Pradesh.
On September 27, 2023, an NSCN-IM militant, ‘private’ Ashom Toham, surrendered before the Security Forces (SFs) in the Longding District of Arunachal Pradesh.
On September 24, 2023, a suspected Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) militant, David Gaingamlung Gonmei, was killed and another sustained injuries in a gunfight with suspected NSCN-IM cadres at Phoibut Village in the Tupul area of Noney District in Manipur. ZUF is a splinter group of the NSCN-IM, formed in 2011.
On September 21, 2023, an NSCN-IM cadre was arrested, in possession of one 7.65 mm pistol and drugs, in a joint operation by the Assam Rifles and Nagaland Police at Half Nagarjan in the Dimapur District of Nagaland.
On September 13, 2023, a NSCN-IM militant was killed by Security Forces (SFs) during an exchange of fire that broke out after two armed militants shot at a SF patrol at Miao in the Changlang District of Arunachal Pradesh.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there have been at least 28 NSCN-IM linked incidents in the current year (data till October 22, 2023), including five incidents of killing resulting in six fatalities (all terrorists). Of the killed terrorists, three belonged to NSCN-IM (one killed by SFs, two killed by ZUF), two belonged to ZUF (both killed by NSCN-IM) and one belonged to the NSCN/‘Government of the People's Republic of Nagaland (GPRN)’ (killed by NSCN-IM). Of the remaining 23 incidents, one was an incident of abduction by NSCN-IM cadres, in which six persons were abducted ((all were later rescued the SFs); four were incidents of extortion, 16 incidents of arrest of NSCN-IM cadres by SFs in which 32 cadres were arrested, and two incidents of surrender in which two NSCN-IM cadres surrendered.
Some of the other prominent incidents of 2023 included:
July 20: A ZUF cadre, Obed Kamei, was killed by suspected NSCN-IM cadres at Dailong Village in the Tamenglong District of Manipur. Kamei had been kidnapped by suspected NSCN-IM cadres on July 19 from Noney District and he was found shot dead at Dailong Village the next day.
July 28: Two suspected NSCN-IM militants, ‘Major’ Alen Sekho (42) and ‘Captain’ Angam, were killed, and one civilian, Gaitaguang Gangmei, sustained injuries, in firing by suspected ZUF cadres at Rengpang Village under the jurisdiction of the Khongsang Police Station in the Noney District of Manipur. It was suspected that the killing of the two NSCN-IM cadres by ZUF was revenge for the killing of its cadre, Obed Kamei, by NSCN-IM, on July 20.
July 30: NSCN-IM cadres killed one cadre of NSCN/GPRN, ‘Deputy Kilonser’ Temzei Konyak, and kidnapped three others – Honchai Konyak aka Tatar, Talem Konyak aka Leacy and ‘Captain’ Wanglem Konyak – at Lapalampong Village in the Tizit Area of Mon District in Nagaland. NSCN-IM demanded a ransom of INR 100,000 from each individual for their safe release.
Since the signing of the Framework Agreement between the Government of India (GoI) and NSCN-IM on August 5, 2015, the NSCN-IM has been involved in at least 382 incidents, including 35 incidents of killing resulting in 63 deaths (18 civilians, four SF personnel and 41 terrorists). Of the killed terrorists, 21 belonged to NSCN-IM (14 killed by SFs, five killed by ZUF), seven belonged to ZUF, five belonged to People’s Liberation Army (PLA), three belonged to National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), two belonged to NSCN-Unification (NSCN-U), and one each belonged to NSCN/GPRN, United Kuki Liberation Front (UKLF) and Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK).
Of the remaining 347 incidents, at least 12 were incidents of abduction by NSCN-IM in which 30 persons were abducted (14 of these were later confirmed released, three managed to escape; while no further detail is available about the remaining 13), 69 incidents of extortion, 253 incidents of arrest of NSCN-IM by the SFs in which 421 NSCN-IM cadres were arrested, and 13 incidents of surrender in which 20 NSCN-IM cadres surrendered.
Interestingly, while signing the Framework Agreement and on several occasions thereafter, GoI has reiterated that the Naga issue would be resolved ‘soon’. On February 20, 2023, Union Home Minister Amit Shah once again stated, “Our aim is to make peace talks successful and solve Naga political problem quickly.”
The talks, nevertheless, drag on as, on the one hand, the NSCN-IM remains fixed on its demand for a separate flag and constitution and, on the other, the Union Government remains non-committal on these two demands. Though the NSCN-IM has pointed this out on numerous occasions in the past, highlighting the issue again, on October 10, 2023, while addressing a meeting of the group, ‘Lt. Gen. (Retd)’ V. S. Atem, vice-chairperson and member of the collective leadership of the NSCN-IM, alleged that the Central government had tried to evade accepting these two crucial issues, and asserted that it could never be given up, as the flag and constitution are sovereign rights of the Nagas, having been recognized under the Framework Agreement
Significantly, during the last round of talks between the two sides which began in New Delhi on August 23, 2023, the issue of the Naga flag was the major topic of discussion. Later, on August 26, 2023, NSCN-IM disclosed that nothing has been finalized regarding a separate flag for Nagaland in the talks. No further talks have taken place.
Worryingly, the Naga peace talks seem to be getting complicated in the aftermath of the ongoing violent ethnic clashes between the Metei and Kuki-Zo tribes in Manipur, which erupted on May 3, 2023, and had, according to the last release of government data, resulted in 175 deaths till September 14, 2023. As the violence erupted, the Kukis started emphasising their demand for a separate administration in the Hill Districts. Significantly, two of the Hill Districts which are expected to go under the Kukis' administration if such a demand is met, are Kangpokpi and Tengnoupal, both created in December 2016, and carved out of the predominantly Naga populated districts of Senapati and Chandel. The NSCN-IM, in the July-August edition of its mouthpiece Nagalim Voice, released on August 21, 2023, declared,
Further, the United Naga Council (UNC), the apex Naga Civil Organization argued, on August 21, 2023, that the creation of the two districts "remains alive as an unfinished issue", and so it has become all the more "inevitable for the Nagas to register our opposition… as it is posing a big threat to the very existence and inalienable rights of the Nagas, particularly in the state of Manipur." Earlier, on August 9, 2023, the UNC had stated that the peace process made significant progress with the signing of the Framework Agreement, but "the inordinate delay in signing the final agreement is a cause of concern and has the potential to derail the peace negotiation."
It is thus not surprising that NSCN-IM remains involved in terrorism-linked incidents, even after the signing of the Framework Agreement in 2015 after over 80 rounds of negotiations spanning 18 years. The first breakthrough was achieved in 1997, when a ceasefire agreement was sealed after decades of insurgency in Nagaland, which commenced soon after India’s attained Independence in 1947.
As the talks drag on, with no visible resolution of the contentious issues of flag and constitution, the risk of NSCN-IM’s increasing activities on ground is growing. At a time when insurgency in Manipur seems to have gained momentum in the aftermath of the eruption of ethnic clashes, any increase in activities of the NSCN-IM would prove detrimental to overall peace in India’s Northeast.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia October 16-22, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Noor Kamal alias Somiuddin is the chief of a 20-member "killer group" of ARSA, says RAB: On October 16, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) said that Noor Kamal alias Somiuddin, who was arrested by RAB from Ukhiya Upazila (Sub-District) in Cox's Bazar District on October 15, was the chief of a 20-member "killer group" of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). Khandaker Al Moin, RAB's legal and media wing director, said that Somiuddin was the first member of the group to open fire on Rohingya leader Mohib Ullah. The Daily Star, October 17, 2023.
Incidents of Maoist violence declined by 52 per cent in past nine years, says Union Home Minister Amit Shah: Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah, addressing a rally in Jagdalpur in Chhattisgarh on October 19, stated that incidents of Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] violence have come down by 52 per cent in the nine-year rule of the Narendra Modi government. "In 9 years of the Modi government, incidents of (Naxal) violence declined by 52 per cent, deaths [in Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) violence] came down by 70 per cent, civilian deaths deceased by 68 per cent, while the number of Naxal-affected districts declined by 62 per cent," union minister Shah said. Business Standard, October 20, 2023.
NSCN-K-NS terminates service of Deputy 'Kilonser': The Niki Sumi-led faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K-NS) terminated the service of Kerinjin Kamei alias SK Robert, as the 'Deputy Kilonser (foreign minister)', Zeliangrong Region with immediate effect. A press release from 'Ministry of Information & Publicity (MIP)' stated that that Kamei has been terminated on the "ground of tarnishing the good image of the government," and he was found "involved in anti-government activities and misappropriation of government properties. Morung Express, October 17, 2023.
KLO-KN rejects peace talks and vows to fight for Kamatapur sovereignty: The Koch Nationalism faction of the Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO-KN), led by Jeevan Singha Koch, the former KLO 'chief,' refused to engage in peace talks with the government. In a statement, the militant outfit affirmed its commitment to the pursuit of an 'Independent Kamatapur,' asserting that it does not consider itself part of the Indian Union and decided to fight for the sovereignty of Kamatapur. The Sentinel, October 17, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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