South Asia Terrorism Portal
Punjab: Rampant radicalisation Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 1, 2024, a violent mob desecrated an Ahmadi grave at Sahwala village in the Sheikhupura District of Punjab. Filmmaker and activist Ali Raza on X (formerly Twitter) brought attention to the incident, stating,
A day later, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) noted that the impunity with which these incidents recur, that too with increasing brutality, was deplorable. HRCP demanded that the state intervene to hold perpetrators of anti-Ahmadi violence accountable, and that the fundamental rights of the Ahmadi community be protected, including their right to bury their loved ones in peace and with dignity.
Earlier on January 24, 2024, the Police, under pressure from religious extremists, destroyed the tombstones on 80 graves of the Ahmadi community in the Daska tehsil (revenue unit) of Sialkot District in Punjab. According to the Jamaat-e-Ahmadiyya Pakistan, the Police desecrated at least 80 graves in two separate graveyards of the Ahmadi community in Daska.
On January 11, 2024, the Police, along with Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) cadres, demolished an Ahmadi mosque in the Moti Bazaar area of Wazirabad town (Wazirabad District) in Punjab. The Police took the action on the complaint of a TLP leader, who filed a blasphemy complaint on the grounds that the Ahmadis had constructed a structure that looked like a mosque. TLP is a far-right Islamic extremist political party committed to the protection and enforcement of Pakistan's draconian blasphemy laws, and to punish blasphemers.
On December 22, 2023, the minarets of an Ahmadiyya 'place of worship' were demolished by the Police in the Samanduri area of Faisalabad District in Punjab.
On October 14, 2023, Amir Mahmood, an official of the Punjab chapter of Jamaat-e-Ahmadiyya Pakistan, disclosed that "at least 40 incidents of desecration of our worship places have taken place this year between January and October in various parts of Pakistan. Of them, 11 occurred in Sindh and the remaining in Punjab province".
The Ahmadiyya sect, founded by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad in 1889 in Qadian town near Amritsar in Punjab (India), is regarded as heretical by the majority Sunni sect, and was declared ‘non-Muslim’ in 1974, according to the Constitution of Pakistan. In 1974, Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto enacted an amendment to the constitution, declaring Ahmadiyyas non-Muslims, and barring them from going to mosques. The military dictator Zia-ul-Haq's 1984-ordinance introduced further and explicitly discriminatory references to the Ahmadiyyas in Sections 298-B and 298-C of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), which criminalized the identification of Ahmadiyyas as Muslims, prohibited the use of any titles or descriptive that linked their religious leaders to Islam or to the Prophet, or engaged in prayers or calls to prayer (Azan) in the Islamic form. In 2002, a supplementary list of voters was created in which Ahmadiyyas were categorised as non-Muslims, and were brought under a separate electoral list. Ahmadiyyas have faced sustained persecution throughout Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the registration and prosecution of blasphemy cases remain unabated, particularly in Punjab, as radicalisation grows rampant. Significantly, most blasphemy cases are 'resolved', not in court, but with a bullet or a lynching. In addition to three incidents of blasphemy reported in 2022, resulting in three deaths; 2023 recorded two blasphemy related incidents resulting in two deaths. The incidents in 2023 included:
According to human rights observer, the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ)’s report of March 2023, as many as 171 people had been accused under the blasphemy laws in 2022 alone, of which 65 per cent of cases surfaced in Punjab and 19 per cent in Sindh. The highest incidence was observed in the Districts of Chiniot, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Dera Ghazi Khan, Nankana Sahib, Lahore and Sheikhupura.
Apart from attacks on Ahmadis and blasphemy related incidents, all religious minorities in Punjab remain under constant threat. On August 16, 2023, at least 26 churches in the Jaranwala area of Faisalabad District in Punjab were burnt down, and homes belonging to Christian families were looted and destroyed by Muslim rioters.
On October 11, 2023, former provincial minister for minority affairs, Ejaz Alam Augustine, narrowly escaped unhurt when motorcycle-borne armed assailants opened fire on his car in the Kasur District of Punjab. Augustine, a Catholic, has served as a lawmaker in the Punjab Provincial Assembly since 2018 and is a former Minister for Human Rights, Minority Affairs and Interfaith Harmony. On September 11, 2023, Augustine joined a delegation of bishops and parliamentarians to meet Pakistan's caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, to express concerns over the safety of religious minorities.
While Islamic radicalisation continues to stalk the province, Islamist terrorism, which had fallen to a 15-year low in 2022, once again surged in 2023. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Punjab recorded 49 fatalities [seven civilians, four Security Force (SF) personnel and 38 terrorists) in 16 terrorism-related incidents of killing in 2023, as compared to 11 fatalities (10 civilians and one terrorist) in seven incidents in 2022. Overall fatalities thus registered an over four-fold increase. The highest terrorism-related fatalities in the province were reported in 2013, at 1,656.
While the terrorism-related fatalities in 2023 remains high, as compared to the previous year, terrorism-linked incidents in 2023 remained the same as in 2022, at 83. The number of major incidents of killing (each involving three or more fatalities) also remained the same, at two, but the resultant fatalities increased from six in 2022 to 12 in 2023. The most prominent major attack in 2023 was reported on November 3, when terrorists attacked the Mianwali Training Air Base of the Pakistan Air Force at Mianwali, Punjab. During the attack, three already grounded aircraft and a fuel bowser were damaged. The Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), a newly-emerged terrorist group affiliated to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack. Nine terrorists were killed, as the SFs neutralised the attack.
Meanwhile, several reports suggest that the TTP is trying to further strengthen its base in Punjab.
According to a January 29, 2024, report, the TTP has launched a new wing, named Ustarana (or Ustrani), comprising highly-trained, well-equipped and ferocious cadres, to specifically target Punjab Police personnel and make inroads into the province’s territory. At least three Dera Ghazi Khan (DG Khan) check posts — Lakhani, Jhangi and Triman — situated in the tribal areas along the provincial borders, have become especially vulnerable, because of the emerging threat of the new TTP wing. A senior official told Dawn that the TTP, after launching Ustarana, has increased its influence and fear among the local tribal people. He added that, initially, the group comprised only 10 to 12 terrorists; however, some recent intelligence reports suggest that its strength has now increased to around 50. The official added that the cadres of the Ustarana wing used local hostages as human shields to enter the DG Khan territory in an attack carried out on the Jhangi border post of the Vohawa Police Station in Taunsa Sharif District. It was also reported that these terrorists were provided food supplies by some local tribal people. In the night of January 22, 2024, unidentified terrorists attacked the Jhangi check-post under Vehova Police Station in Taunsa Sharif District of Punjab. The Station House Officer (SHO) of Vehova Police Station said 10-15 terrorists affiliated with the Ustarana group attacked the check-post on the border of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Policemen retaliated with full force, after which the attackers managed to escape.
According to a June 15, 2023, report, TTP announced the establishment of two new ‘administrative units’ – North Punjab, headed by Syed Hilal Ghazi; and South Punjab, headed by Muhammad Umar Muawiya.
Earlier inputs indicated that TTP had begun to collaborate with local criminal groups. On April 21, 2023, Usman Anwar, Inspector General (IG), Punjab Police, revealed that TTP was collaborating with miscreants and organized crime gangs in the area, to disrupt peace. CTD had confirmed phone calls between TTP and Katchi gang criminals in the area.
While Pakistan had suppressed terrorism with a substantial measure of success over the past decade, widespread radicalization, the state’s polices employing terrorist proxies, and the developments across the border in Afghanistan, have created spaces for the revival of terrorism. As Pakistan comes under increasing economic, social and political stress, centrifugal forces are likely to gain in strength, and another cycle of escalating terrorism is likely. Only in the very unlikely event that the country’s political and military leaderships abandon the instrumentalization of Islamist extremism and their disruptive policies in the wider neighbourhood, is the eventual and decisive containment of this threat possible.
Chhattisgarh: Persisting Disruptions Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 30, 2024, three Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed and another 15 sustained injuries in a gunfight with Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres along the Sukma-Bijapur border in Bijapur District. The gunfight erupted when the CRPF personnel were working to establish a Forward Operating Base (FOB) – a remote camp meant to facilitate Security Forces (SFs) operating in core Maoist areas – in the area.
On January 20, 2024, three CPI-Maoist cadres, including two women cadres, were killed in a gun battle with SFs during a search operation in the hills near Belam Gutta village under Basaguda Police Station limits in Bijapur District. After the encounter, the bodies of three Maoists, including two women (whose identities are yet to be ascertained), were recovered from the spot, and two muzzle-loading guns, a pistol, five live cartridges, 15 gelatin sticks, five detonators, wires, Maoist uniforms, and literature were recovered from the site.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the beginning of 2024, at least seven incidents of killing, resulting in 11 fatalities (two civilians, four SF personnel, and five Maoists), have already been registered in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence in Chhattisgarh, thus far (data till February 4). During the corresponding period of 2023, two incidents of killing, resulting in two fatalities (one civilian and one Maoist), were documented. There has, thus, been a considerable surge in LWE-linked violence in the State.
Chhattisgarh recorded at least 66 incidents of killing, resulting in 88 fatalities (37 civilians, 26 SF personnel, and 25 Maoists), in LWE-linked violence in 2023. In 2022, 62 incidents of killing, resulting in 72 fatalities (30 civilians, 10 SF personnel and 32 Maoists) were recorded. The data thus reflected a spike of 22.22 per cent in overall fatalities in LWE-linked violence in the State in 2023.
Significantly, fatalities in the SF category more than doubled from 10 in 2022 to 26 in 2023. The spike is particularly worrying, as fatalities in this category in 2022 were the lowest recorded since 2019 (19).
Moreover, while the SF:Maoist kill ratio remained marginally in favor of the SFs in 2023, at 1:1.04, it deteriorated dramatically in comparison to 2022, at 1:3.2, the second most favorable recorded in a year since 2000 [when SATP started compiling data on LWE violence, from March 6]. The best SF:Maoist kill ratio was recorded in 2019 at 1:3.84. The overall kill ratio since March 6, 2000, is in favor of SFs, at 1:1.16.
Fatalities in the civilian category, a key indicator of security in conflict zones, also increased, from 30 in 2022 to 37 in 2023, suggesting that the civilian population of the State remained at risk. Civilian fatalities have recorded a cyclical trend, on year-on-year basis, since 2000.
Meanwhile, at least 134 Maoists were arrested in the state in 2023, in addition to 76 such arrests in 2022. At least 132 Maoists were arrested in 2021, 99 in 2020, and 134 in 2019. Mounting SF pressure also resulted in the surrender of 187 Maoists in 2023, in addition to 184 such surrenders in 2022. There were 328 surrenders in 2021, 238 in 2020, and 231 in 2019.
The number of Districts from where killings were recorded also increased marginally in 2023. Out of a total of 33 Districts in Chhattisgarh, fatalities were reported from 10 in 2023: Bijapur (18), Dantewada (18), Sukma (17), Kanker (14), Narayanpur (12), Gariabandh (three), Kondagaon and Rajnandgaon (two each), and Mohala Manpur and Dhamtari (one each). Nine Districts recorded such fatalities in 2022 – Bijapur (32), Dantewada (14), Sukma (11), Kanker (seven), Narayanpur (four), Bastar, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur and Rajnandgaon (one each).
Violence has been substantially confined to a few pockets of the perilous Bastar Division, which spans over 40,000 square kilometers, and comprises seven districts – Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma – in the southernmost region of the State. According to SATP, in 2023, the Bastar Division accounted for 92.04 per cent of total killings reported in Chhattisgarh, as against 97.22 per cent in 2022. Since 2000, the ‘Bastar Division’ has accounted for 91 per cent of all fatalities in the State – 3,307 out of a total of 3,634. The Division accounts for 29.39 per cent of the total of 11,250 fatalities recorded across the country since 2000.
Other parameters of violence also indicate that the Maoists retain significant operational capabilities in Chhattisgarh. At least four major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) were recorded in 2023, compared to two such incidents in 2022. There were 44 incidents of exchange of fire between SFs and Maoist in 2023, compared to 37 such incidents in 2022. Further, the Maoists orchestrated at least 30 incidents of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blasts in 2023, compared to 16 such incidents in 2022.
According to the SATP database, an analysis of underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists in 2023, indicated that five Districts (Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, and Sukma) could be categorised as highly-affected; five (Dhamtari, Gariabandh, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur, and Rajnandgaon) as moderately affected; while Bastar, Balrampur, Jashpur, and Khairagarh-Chhuikhadan-Gandai, remained marginally affected. By comparison, in 2022, three Districts (Bijapur, Dantewada, and Sukma) were categorised as highly-affected; six (Bastar, Kanker, Narayanpur, Kondagaon, Mohala Manpur, and Rajnandgaon) were moderately affected; while four (Gariabandh, Kabirdham, Dhamtari, and Jashpur), were marginally affected.
Meanwhile, signs of augmenting risk are emerging.
According to a January 31, 2024, report, SFs unearthed a 130-metre-long and six-foot-deep well-concealed tunnel with an opening of four to five feet, constructed by Maoists in Tadopot - a village on the banks of the Indravati River in Bijapur District, where at least 100 armed cadres could easily hide in this tunnel, stockpile arms and ammunition, and use it as a staging ground for ambushes. Such tunnels provide both offensive and defensive advantages in guerrilla warfare. Acknowledging the discovery of the tunnel, Dantewada Superintendent of Police (SP) Gaurav Rai, observed,
Further, in the latest attack on the Security Forces in Bijapur District on January 30, 2024, the Maoists are said to have inflicted employed snipers. An unnamed security officer involved in the counter insurgency operation, thus disclosed,
Several security measures have been taken during the course of 2023 to counter Maoist violence, in addition measures adopted in the past. According to a December 31, 2023, report, three battalions of the Border Security Force (BSF) were moved from Odisha to Chhattisgarh, and an equal number of Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) units into the Maoist stronghold of Abujhmad, as part of a strategy to intensify anti-Maoist operations in their last bastions. The ITBP, which currently has about eight battalions located in the Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon and Kondagaon districts of Chhattisgarh, has been asked to move one unit further inside the core area of Abujhmad. According to the same report, there are around 800-900 active cadres under the Maoists' Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee leadership in the state.
Meanwhile, on January 21, 2024, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah, reviewing the Maoist situation in Chhattisgarh, directed the SFs to financially choke the ultras. He also directed officials to prepare a blueprint to end Left Wing Extremism. UHM Shah also stressed the need for expediting development in LWE-affected areas, and directed that all welfare schemes of the central and state governments be implemented in these areas with renewed vigour.
Regrettably, even as the battle against the Maoists in Chhattisgarh continues, the State Police Force, the first line of defence against any kind of internal threat within a state’s borders, continued to face deficits and deficiencies. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) report, as on January 1, 2022, the State had 64,573 Policemen, as against a sanctioned strength of 78,698, leaving at least 14,125 posts, i.e., 17.94 per cent, vacant. In this highly Maoist-afflicted State, the Police/Area Ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometers) is 47.76, as against the sanctioned strength of 58.21. The all-India Police/area ratio stands at 63.70, as against a sanction of 81.80. Moreover, of a sanctioned strength of 142 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 23 posts, i.e., 16.19 per cent, remained vacant, considerably weakening executive direction of the Force. Bewilderingly, 22 of 434 Police Stations in the State are without a telephone connection. In order to assist the State Police, 286 Companies of Central Armed Police Forces (BSF, CRPF, CISF, ITBP, etc.) have been deployed in Chhattisgarh.
Interestingly, on January 10, 2024, taking a step towards restoring peace and stability in Bastar, the newly formed Chhattisgarh government extended an invitation to the CPI-Maoist to engage in unconditional talks, suggesting that such dialogue could take place through video conferencing, if Maoist leaders were reluctant to come for physical meetings. The aim of the dialogue would be to restore peace and stability in the tribal region. Chhattisgarh deputy Chief Minister, Vijay Sharma, who holds the home portfolio, thus stated,
However, he also issued a warning:
The Maoists, however, are yet to respond.
Despite suffering losses across the country, the Maoists continue to demonstrate significant fighting capabilities, and appear determined to defend their remaining strongholds in Chhattisgarh. This can only mean that SFs will intensify operations, both to protect the civilian population, and also to ensure that the gains of the past are consolidated, and that the remaining stretches of region afflicted by LWE violence are brought under the uncontested sway of the state.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 29 - February 4, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Odisha
Manipur
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Counter-terrorism is our main principle, says Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid: Taliban's spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid stated that counter-terrorism is the main principle of the Afghan Government. He said, "From the address of the United Nations, a regular slander program has been created against the Islamic Emirate (Taliban), and they always spread propaganda against them. The stance of the UN is misused. We call on the countries who are members of the UNSC but have good relations with Afghanistan to not allow the reputation of the organization to be harmed." Tolo News, February 2, 2024.
Centre extends ban on SIMI under UAPA for another five years: The Centre on January 29, extended the ban on terrorist organisation Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) for five years for its involvement in fomenting terrorism and disturbing peace and communal harmony in the country. In a post on X, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah said that SIMI has been declared an "unlawful association" for five years under the UAPA, bolstering Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of zero tolerance against terrorism. The Indian Express, January 30, 2024.
NSCN-IM steadfast on its commitment to the Naga political issue, says outfit's 'chairman' Q Tuccu: On January 31, on the occasion of the 45th Raising Day celebration of the outfit, National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) 'chairman' Q Tuccu said that the NSCN has remained steadfast on its commitment to the Naga political issue even in the face of the rapidly changing times. He said, "We have shown remarkable resilience and loyalty to Framework Agreement despite all the difficulties, because it is our stand that the implementation of the political and peace agreement that FA [Framework Agreement] stands for remains the only viable and ideal solution to the long-delayed Naga political solution." The Morung Express, February 2, 2024.
ENNG merges with NSCN-IM: On January 27, the entire body of the Eastern Naga National Government (ENNG) merged with National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) along with arms. On January 21, 'president' of ENNG, Tosham Mossang and 'General Secretary' Sompai Pongha had written to the Longvibu ('commander-in-chief') of 'Naga Army General Head Quarter' requesting for merger of ENNG to the NSCN/GPRN. The Morung Express, January 30, 2024.
NIA builds its own database of all terrorists, says report: National Investigation Agency (NIA) for the first time collected details of all terrorists, including those from Indian Mujahideen (IM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) as well as Khalistani militant groups and uploaded them in one common server at its headquarters in Delhi. The National Terrorism Data Fusion & Analysis Centre (NTDFAC), which is modelled along the lines of the Global Terrorism Database of the US, inaugurated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah on January 30. The Indian Express, January 30, 2024.
24 terrorists and four SF personnel killed in Kachhi clearance operations in Balochistan: At least 24 terrorists and four Security Force (SF) personnel were killed during clearance operations in Mach and Kolpur complexes in Kachhi District of Balochistan, the press release of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said. SF identified the key terrorists killed as Shehzad Baloch, Attaullah, Salah Uddin, Abdul Wadood and Zeeshan and added that the identification process for others is underway.
The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) released a statement on February 1 which said "385 Baloch freedom fighters, including 12 Fidayeen, participated in Operation Dara-e-Bolan; 78 enemy personnel eliminated - BLA is ready to work with any nation against the common enemy for mutual benefit". In the statement, the BLA reported the "successful" completion of Operation Dara-e-Bolan, a two-day-long 'military' operation spanning from January 29, 2024, to January 31, 2024. The Express Tribune, The Balochistan Post, February 3, 2024.
TTP launches new militant wing to target Police in Punjab:The Dera Ghazi Khan (DG Khan) region Police of Punjab are on high-alert following reports that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has launched a new wing, named 'Ustarana', comprising highly-trained, well-equipped and ferocious militants, to specifically target the Punjab Police personnel to make inroads into the province's territory. A senior official told Dawn that initially, the group comprised only 10 to 12 militants, however, some recent intelligence reports suggest that its strength has now increased to around 50. Dawn, January 29, 2024.
TTP backed by Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban, says UNSC committee report: The 33rd report of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team submitted to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on January 31 revealed that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been receiving "significant backing" from Al-Qaeda and other militant factions for executing attacks in Pakistan in addition to support from the Afghan Taliban. The collaboration includes not just the provision of arms and equipment but also active on-ground support for the banned TTP's operations against Pakistan. https://www.dawn.com/, February 1, 2024. Dawn, February 1, 2024.
Pakistan asks Afghanistan to extradite TTP leaders: Pakistan on February 1 reiterated its demand for Afghanistan to extradite the leaders of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) while underscoring the need for bringing to justice those responsible for terrorism and maintaining regional security. "We urge Afghanistan to take immediate and effective action against these terrorist entities, hand over their leadership to Pakistan, and those individuals who have been involved in terrorist activities inside Pakistan," Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said at the weekly media briefing. Daily Excelsior, February 2, 2024.
JuA announces jihad against Democracy in Pakistan: Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) faction, has announced jihad against Democracy in Pakistan. It also has condemned TTP's recent statement in which it excluded election related targets from attacks. The Khorasan Diary, January 29, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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